Politics
In 2024 Elections, Most Races Were Over Before They Started
Competition is an endangered species in legislative elections.
A New York Times analysis of the nearly 6,000 congressional and state legislative elections in November shows just how few races were true races. Nearly all either were dominated by an incumbent or played out in a district drawn to favor one party overwhelmingly. The result was a blizzard of blowouts, even in a country that is narrowly divided on politics.
Just 8 percent of congressional races (36 of 435) and 7 percent of state legislative races (400 of 5,465) were decided by fewer than five percentage points, according to The Times’s analysis.
Consequences from the death of competition are readily apparent. Roughly 90 percent of races are now decided not by general-election voters in November but by the partisans who tend to vote in primaries months earlier. That favors candidates who appeal to ideological voters and lawmakers who are less likely to compromise. It exacerbates the polarization that has led to deadlock in Congress and in statehouses.
“Because of partisan and racial gerrymandering, you end up with these skewed results and legislative bodies that don’t necessarily reflect the political makeup of either the states or, writ large, the House of Representatives representing the political desires of the American people,” said Eric H. Holder Jr., the attorney general in the Obama administration who, as chair of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, has criticized the mapmaking process and at times even called out his own party’s redistricting practices.
In 2020, the last time that once-a-decade national exercise took place, both parties largely followed a similar strategy. Their maps typically made districts safer by stocking them with voters from one party, rather than breaking them up in an effort to pick up seats. Republicans, as the party in control of the process in more states, drew more of these slanted districts than Democrats.
Other factors have contributed to vanishing competition, including demographic shifts and “political sorting” — the tendency of like-minded citizens to live in the same community. But the role of redistricting is evident when zooming in on a single state.
Take, for example, Texas, where in 2020, before redistricting, 10 of 38 congressional races were decided by 10 percentage points or fewer. In 2024, just two races were. In five races last year, Democrats did not even run a candidate, ceding the seat to Republicans. One Democrat ran unopposed.
In state legislatures, where lawmakers are drawing maps for their own districts, safe seats abound.
There are 181 state legislative seats in Texas, with 31 senators and 150 representatives. In 2024, just four of those elections — three in the Statehouse and one in the State Senate — were decided by five points or fewer, according to The Times’s analysis.
“Legislatures draw maps in most places, and the reality is, a big concern for members who have to pass these bills is: ‘What happens to my district?’” said Michael Li, a senior counsel for the Democracy Program at the Brennan Center for Justice. “Very few members are willing to say, ‘Oh, gosh, I should have a more competitive district.’ So there is an inherent conflict of interest in the way that we draw districts.”
Adam Kincaid, the director of the National Republican Redistricting Trust, said that making seats safer was always the goal.
“We made no bones about the fact that we’re going to shore up incumbents, and where we had opportunities to go on offense, we were going to do that,” Mr. Kincaid said. “So what that means is bringing a whole lot of Republican seats that were otherwise in jeopardy off the board.”
The Power of a Map
While it is easy to focus on the candidates, the money, the message or the economy, increasingly it is the maps that determine the outcome. In North Carolina, they may have decided control of the U.S. House of Representatives.
Only one of the state’s 14 congressional districts was decided by fewer than five points. A Republican won the state’s next closest race — by 14 points.
In 2022, the State Supreme Court ordered a more competitive map, but it was tossed out after midterm elections shook up the balance of the court. The replacement, which was drawn by the Republican-led Legislature, gave three Democratic seats to the G.O.P. while making nearly every district safer for the party that held it.
It is impossible to know how elections held under the first map would have turned out. But, according to Justin Levitt, a redistricting law expert at Loyola Law School in Los Angeles, “had every seat stayed the same as in 2022, those three seats would have made the difference, and Democrats would have had a one-seat majority” in Congress.
Of course, North Carolina played a pivotal role because the margin in the House was so small. Gerrymanders nudge the political balance in every election, but the 2024 vote was the rare occasion in which they were decisive.
North Carolina’s role in the 2024 House elections follows a historic U.S. Supreme Court ruling in 2019 — involving partisan congressional maps in North Carolina — in which the court called partisan gerrymanders a political problem outside federal courts’ jurisdiction.
Even though those maps were “blatant examples of partisanship driving districting decisions,” the majority wrote, “state statutes and state constitutions can provide standards and guidance for state courts to apply.”
Almost unnoticed, other battles over slanted congressional maps that could affect the 2026 elections are crawling though state and federal courts — in Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, North Carolina (again), South Carolina, Texas and Utah.
Of all those lawsuits, the one most likely to affect the next House elections appears to be in Utah, where Salt Lake City, the state’s liberal hub, was carved into four districts to water down the impact of Democratic voters on House races.
Democrats appear likely to pick up a single House seat from that litigation, which faces a crucial court hearing on Friday.
Nationwide Decline
North Carolina is hardly an outlier.
In Illinois, a state dominated by Democrats, no congressional election was within a five-point margin, and just two were within 10 points. In Maryland, just one district was within a five-point margin.
Georgia did not have a single congressional district within a 10-point margin, out of 14 seats. The state’s closest race was the 13-point victory by Representative Sanford Bishop, a Democrat, in the Second Congressional District.
At the state legislative level, the numbers were even starker.
In Georgia, just five of the 236 state legislative seats, or 2 percent, were decided by five points or fewer, and more than half of the races were uncontested. In Florida, 10 of the 160 state legislative races were within a five-point margin.
With so few general elections to worry about, tribalism can take over in legislatures, leaving many elected officials to worry only about primary challenges, often from their party’s fringes. In the modern climate of political polarization, the lack of competitive districts not only removes an incentive to work with the other party but actively deters doing so.
“As competitive districts dwindle, so do incentives to compromise,” said Steve Israel, a former Democratic congressman from New York and the former chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “I remember campaigning on bipartisanship in a very moderate district in my first election in 2000. By the time I left in 2017, talking about crossing the aisle was like announcing a walk to my own firing squad.”
Politics
West Virginia worked with ICE — 650 arrests later, officials say Minnesota-style ‘chaos’ is a choice
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A relatively brief, but lucrative ICE surge into West Virginia netted roughly 650 illegal immigrant arrests earlier this month — a two-week, statewide operation officials say unfolded with little disruption and now stands as a counterpoint to the turmoil surrounding similar enforcement efforts in Minnesota.
From Jan. 5 through Jan. 19, federal agents fanned out across the Mountain State — at times working with local law enforcement — targeting illegal immigrants with criminal histories or prior deportation orders, DHS officials told Fox News Digital.
Officials involved contrast the West Virginia operation with recent tensions in Minnesota, where ICE-related enforcement actions have sparked sustained protests, surveillance of federal agents and confrontations with law enforcement.
“I think the most important thing to notice here is that West Virginia and similarly situated states … have made it very, very easy for criminal illegal aliens to be picked up and processed by ICE,” West Virginia Attorney General JB McCuskey told Fox News Digital in an exclusive interview.
MANY OF AMERICA’S SAFEST CITIES ARE IN JURISDICTIONS THAT COOPERATE WITH ICE
West Virginia Attorney General JB McCuskey speaks outside the Supreme Court. (Oliver Contreras/Getty Images)
Some of the operations even reached the state’s bluer-tinged Eastern Panhandle, the fast-growing exurb of Washington, D.C., where officials say cooperation, not confrontation, defined the response.
There, Jefferson County Sheriff Thomas Hansen confirmed a two-week operation with ICE in his jurisdiction, which includes Charles Town, Harpers Ferry and Summit Point.
“The (JCSO) was impressed with the professionalism and work ethic of the agents and how well they interacted with the citizens and local law enforcement officers,” Hansen said in a statement obtained by Fox News Digital.
McCuskey said the lack of disruption in West Virginia reflected a cooperative approach that he argued prevented the kind of disorder seen elsewhere.
“When you contrast that with places like Minnesota, where you have Keith Ellison — who’s obviously embroiled in a massive fraud scandal involving Somali immigrants, et cetera, what you see is riots and violence,” he said.
McCuskey suggested the West Virginia mission shows Minnesota’s leadership can no longer blame federal law for its approach, noting that all states still operate under the same immigration statutes that have remained intact since the Obama administration.
TRUMP’S IMMIGRATION VICTORY IN A MINNESOTA COURT IS A WIN FOR ALL LAW-ABIDING CITIZENS
An ICE agent is seen standing in front of a house in a residential area. (Victor J. Blue/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
“All God-fearing Americans believe in immigration. We believe that the promise of this country should be available to those who want to come to America the right way, follow our laws, and become great parts of this incredible quilt that is the American experience,” McCuskey said.
“And if your first act as a hopeful new American is to break our laws, that trust has been broken.”
McCuskey also accused Minnesota’s leadership of failing on parallel issues, calling Ellison “dalliant” in confronting social services fraud.
“My office [oversees] the same things,” he said, noting West Virginia also has a high proportion of residents on entitlements but lacks the level of fraud he says plagues Minnesota.
Just across the Potomac River from ICE’s Martinsburg sting, Maryland Democrats lambasted ICE’s presence in Washington County.
ICE REVEALS ‘WORST OF THE WORST’ ARRESTS IN JUST ONE DAY AFTER ROUNDING UP ‘THUGS’ CONVICTED OF VILE CRIMES
ICE officers arrested Sagar Singh, an Indian national previously ordered removed, during Operation ICE Wall after he was stopped for failing to clear a mandatory commercial vehicle brake check. (ICE)
McCuskey called that a “representation of the generalized idiocy of most of the Democrats in Congress, who have sat on their hands for the last 25 years and done nothing about the very immigration laws that they’re very angry about being enforced.”
Ellison, by contrast, showered protesters with praise at a recent public appearance, calling ICE’s operations a “federal invasion” and telling those assembled in the Twin Cities that he “wanted you to know that I was here with you, fighting with you, standing with you. Keep fighting, stand up strong, don’t back down.”
Fox News Digital reached out to Ellison and Gov. Tim Walz for comment, but neither office responded. DHS officials, however, said they expect states that cooperate with ICE to see similar success to West Virginia.
Assistant Secretary Tricia McLaughlin said “work[ing] together can make America safe again.”
DHS told Fox News Digital of similarly low-profile ICE operations in Alabama, including activity near Birmingham that netted a violent illegal immigrant accused of stabbing a federal agent, along with enforcement actions in other cities reported by local media.
Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey and Sen. Tommy Tuberville told Fox News Digital they will continue to welcome federal agents in the Yellowhammer State, with Tuberville, a candidate for governor, quipping that one mayor who has pledged to protect illegal immigrants “won’t like me very much” if he succeeds Ivey.
Those arrested in the West Virginia sweep included Mexican national Enrique Vergara — convicted of assault with a weapon — Guatemalan national Isaias Santos — convicted of several violent charges — Julian Garza, charged with auto theft; Brayan Canelis-Giron, charged with domestic violence and gun offenses; and Dennis Paz-Vallecillo, convicted of child neglect.
Not every Mountaineer leader was on board, however, as WVDP Chair Mike Pushkin — a state delegate from Kanawha County — told Fox News Digital people “have to be honest about what’s really going on here.”
FROM PROTEST TO FELONY: THE LINES MINNESOTA ANTI-ICE AGITATORS MAY BE CROSSING
Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison had previously come under fire from Republicans for his ties to climate groups before the massive welfare and social services fraud scandal rocked the state. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
“The difference between what you’re seeing in Minnesota and what’s happening in West Virginia isn’t complicated — it’s courage,” Pushkin said, crediting Minnesota leaders with standing up to President Donald Trump “trampl[ing] due process and ignor[ing] the Constitution.”
“Republican leaders here won’t even clear their throats — and trying to compare the size and scope of the Minnesota operation to what happened here is just silly. That’s like comparing a house fire to a burnt piece of toast and pretending they’re the same emergency,” he said.
Pushkin cited a Clinton-appointed judge’s order that some of the detainees be released, including two men picked up on the West Virginia Turnpike.
“In the court’s words, there wasn’t ‘a shred of evidence to justify the government’s position’ — that should be the headline. That should alarm anyone who cares about freedom or the rule of law,” Pushkin said.
“Minnesota leaders pushed back. West Virginia’s Republican leadership just clicked their heels, saluted, and fell in line.”
HOMAN ANNOUNCES DRAWDOWN OF FEDERAL PRESENCE IN MINNESOTA, HAILS ‘UNPRECEDENTED COOPERATION’ FROM LOCAL POLICE
Fox News Digital also asked several blue-state leaders about the cooperation contrast but heard back from only one.
A spokeswoman for California Gov. Gavin Newsom said that if the feds truly cared about getting “hardened criminals off our streets, they would pick up every person released from our state prisons that have immigration detainers placed on them.”
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Diana Crofts-Pelayo said there’s only a one-in-eight rate in that regard, which she said shows the Trump administration just wants to “cause panic and fear to ultimately ensure compliance to a dangerous immigration agenda that threatens Americans’ safety, affordability and freedom.”
A California source familiar with the immigration enforcement dynamic there said that immigrants who commit crimes are subject to certain exceptions that do allow local law enforcement cooperation with ICE, particularly those charged with a violent felony.
DHS said that cooperation with federal law enforcement is the safest and most effective option for state officials.
“Sanctuary politicians who refuse to cooperate with DHS law enforcement are wasting law enforcement time, energy, and resources, while putting their own constituents in danger,” McLaughlin told Fox News Digital, crediting West Virginia officials with allowing such a quick and effective operation and expressing hope that other states would follow suit.
SAN FRANCISCO — As California struggles with homelessness and healthcare cuts, some activists are taking on an unexpected cause: fighting for billionaires.
About a dozen people took part in the “March for Billionaires” on Saturday morning in San Francisco to raise awareness about the plight of the ultrarich. Although some assumed the event was satire, organizer Derik Kauffman said it was a sincere protest against a potential new tax on the state’s wealthiest residents.
“We must not judge billionaires as a class but by their individual merits,” he said, speaking outside the San Francisco Civic Center. “There are good billionaires and bad billionaires, just like there are good people and bad people. California is extraordinarily lucky that this is where people come to start companies and build fortunes and we should do our best to keep it that way.”
The Billionaire Tax Act is a proposed state ballot initiative that would levy a one-time, 5% tax on the state’s billionaires to help offset recent federal cuts that have affected healthcare and food-assistance programs. The tax would apply to their overall net worth but would exclude pensions, real estate and retirement accounts.
Supporters say it would benefit the majority of the state’s residents and help ensure billionaires pay their fair share. Opponents — including Gov. Gavin Newsom — argue it will cause billionaires and the businesses they own to flee the state, taking jobs and tax dollars with them.
Kauffman echoed those concerns Saturday and said everyone should want billionaires to remain in California.
“This tax will drive billionaires out; it already has,” he said. “The founders of Google — they left the state and they are taking their money with them.”
Google is still headquartered in California, but other companies tied to Google co-founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin recently lef the state, including T-Rex Holdings, which moved from Palo Alto to Reno last year.
Two counter-protesters mockingly impersonated billionaires by playing characters they dubbed “Oli Garch” and “Trilly O’Naire.”
(Katie King / Los Angeles Times)
The event attracted a few dozen humorous counterprotesters.
Razelle Swimmer carried around a puppet of the Swedish Chef from the Muppets, brandishing knives and wearing an apron that said “Eat the Rich.” Swimmer told The Times she doesn’t believe billionaires need more protections.
“If they aren’t willing to pay more taxes, then I don’t really care if they leave,” she said.
Other counterprotesters mockingly impersonated billionaires by donning crowns or top hats. A man and woman, playing characters called Oli Garch and Trilly O’Naire, said they worried what would happen if the tax passed.
“There is a small chance that my helicopter won’t be able to have a sauna in it just because apparently some kids want dental work or something,” said the woman, as she adjusted her tiara.
At one point, a man wearing a gold crown and carrying a sign that said “Let them eat cake” ran through the crowd shouting, “Keep the poors away from me.”
The Service Employees International Union-United Healthcare Workers West, the main backer of the tax proposal, needs to collect about 875,000 signatures by June 24 in order to get the measure on the November ballot.
The Legislative Analyst’s Office, which offers guidance to the Legislature about budgetary issues, has cautioned that the tax might lead to only short-term benefits.
“It is likely that some billionaires decide to leave California,” the agency stated in a recent analysis. “The income taxes they currently pay to the state would go away with their departure. The reduction in state revenues from these kinds of responses could be hundreds of millions of dollars or more per year.”
California has roughly 200 billionaires, the most of any state. Their collective wealth was $2.2 trillion in October, up from $300 billion in 2011, according to a December report from law and economics professors at UC Berkeley, UC Davis and the University of Missouri.
The researchers concluded that billionaires in the United States pay less in taxes, relative to income, than the average American.
“It is estimated that, including all taxes at all levels of government, billionaires paid only 24% of their true economic income in taxes in years 2018-20 while the U.S.-wide average was 30%,” the report states.
Politics
Calm amid chaos: Noem defies calls to resign, touts border victory as shutdowns, storms, and riots swirl
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Department of Homeland Security Sec. Kristi Noem has been a lightning rod for criticism amid anti-ICE riots that have rocked the country, sparked a government shutdown and left many wondering whether the nation’s 8th DHS secretary would keep her job.
Despite the mounting pressure, Noem appeared calm, collected, and confident during a trip this week that included a stop in Mississippi to assess winter storm damage recovery efforts, visits to the southern border in Texas and Arizona as well as the northern border in North Dakota, and a BBQ dinner hosted and served by Noem herself to Border Patrol agents in Arizona.
During the first half of the four-day stint, Congress was still dealing with a partial government shutdown largely over how to fund DHS. The House ultimately reached an agreement, funding the agency through Feb. 13, but Noem’s focus remained the same before and after the bill passed, and her schedule was left unchanged.
Sec. Kristi Noem speaks at a press conference along the border wall in Nogales, AZ on Feb. 4. (DHS photo by Mikaela McGee)
During an exclusive interview along the border wall in Nogales, Ariz., Noem told Fox News Digital that the national security functions of the agency are too vital to be sidelined by a spending fight.
BORDER CROSSINGS HIT 55-YEAR LOW — AFTER DEMOCRATS SAID REFORM WAS THE ONLY FIX
“Every day [DHS is] finding terrorists and removing them from our country, protecting our cybersecurity systems, our critical infrastructure,” Noem told Fox. “Only 11% of the DHS budget is ICE. The rest of it is FEMA, TSA, that runs our security checkpoints at our airports.”
“It is also the Coast Guard, which is absolutely critical to our maritime protection and also partnering with the Department of War,” Noem added. “We have weapons of mass destruction, science and technology, our national labs.”
“We have a lot of responsibilities that we absolutely need to fund in order to do them properly. So I’m hopeful that Congress will recognize that and pass this bill quickly,” Noem said.
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But the debate around government spending wasn’t about the Coast Guard, FEMA or TSA. It was almost entirely based on one of the 23 agencies which Noem oversees – Immigration and Customs Enforcement, or ICE. Specifically, it centered around ICE’s actions in Minneapolis, a so-called sanctuary city in which the local authorities provide only minimal support to federal officers enforcing immigration laws.
Federal law enforcement agents detain a demonstrator during a raid in south Minneapolis, Minnesota, US, on Tuesday, Jan. 13, 2026. Minnesota officials are suing over the unprecedented surge of US immigration authorities in the state, taking the Trump administration to court days after a federal agent shot and killed a Minneapolis woman. (Photographer: Victor J. Blue/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
Since the beginning of the year, DHS estimates that Operation Metro Surge has resulted in the apprehension of 4,000 criminal illegal migrants in Minneapolis. The operation was launched mainly due to a fraud scheme that involved members of the Somali community in Minnesota.
The mission then evolved into a heated clash between agitators and federal officers that ultimately left two U.S. citizens dead, Renee Good and Alex Pretti, both killed by federal immigration agents.
NOEM VOWS CRIMINAL PROSECUTION AFTER CATCHING ALLEGED DHS ‘PROLIFIC LEAKER’
Noem quickly labeled both Good and Pretti as “domestic terrorists” and said their deaths were due to impeding “law enforcement operations,” sparking outrage from Democrats and some Republicans who began to call for her resignation.
Rumors swirled whether Noem would actually resign or if President Donald Trump would fire fire her, but the president told reporters shortly after the death of Pretti that he had no intention of relieving her from her position as head of DHS.
When Fox News Digital asked Noem what she believed the American people want when it comes to ICE enforcing the law using the same tactics that led to riots, deaths and assaults on both agitators and agents, Noem said “I think people would want less conflict.”
President Donald Trump has repeatedly backed DHS chief Noem in public comments in January. (Jim Watson/Getty Images)
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“[The American people] want to know that we’re enforcing our laws and that we are going after dangerous criminals, and they don’t want them to be released on the streets to perpetuate more crimes,” Noem explained.
At some stops along Noem’s trip, agitators appeared. At a dinner she hosted inside a hotel in Tucson, Arizona, for CBP officers, protesters with drums, megaphones and seemingly pre-made signs gathered at the entrance of the hotel. Every other car driving by the demonstration honked, though it’s unclear whether they were honking in support or in disagreement with the protesters.
A Quinnipiac University survey taken from Jan. 29 to Feb. 2 showed 58% of those questioned saying that Noem shouldn’t have the job.
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Fox News Digital spoke with a GOP insider who pointed to Noem’s inexperience on the national stage, saying her time as governor of South Dakota didn’t prepare her for one of the most challenging roles in the presidential cabinet.
Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem meets with CBP officials at Eagle Pass, Texas, Tuesday, February 3, 2026. Noem assesses the progress been made since she became head of the agency a year ago. (Kat Ramirez for Fox News Digital)
Despite the critics, Noem’s record on securing the border has proven successful, according to figures provided by the department and the Trump administration. Trump’s goal to deter illegal migrants from crossing the border, which was Noem’s mandate, has been a priority for the White House.
More illegal migrants crossed the southern border in one average month under former President Biden’s watch than have crossed under Noem’s entire watch, according to DHS.
NOEM DEPLOYS TO BOTH BORDERS, SAYS ICE WON’T BE DETERRED BY SANCTUARY OFFICIALS WHO ‘WANT TO CREATE CONFLICT’
“We have over three million people that have deported, and that includes probably about 700,000 that we have detained and removed,” Noem told Fox News Digital on Wednesday. “Beyond that, over 2.3 million have self-deported.”
“You know, you send the message around the world that America is now going to be enforcing its laws and making sure that if you’re in this country illegally, that you should go home, and we’ve been incentivizing that through a $2,600 payment and a flight,” Noem added. “Millions of people have taken us up on that.”
Trump defended Noem for a second time during remarks at the National Prayer Breakfast on Thursday when discussing if he would relinquish her command at DHS.
Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem (not pictured) displays a momtage of photos showing the illegal border crossing a year ago as she meets with CBP officials at Eagle Pass, Texas, Tuesday, February 3, 2026. Noem assesses the progress been made since she became head of the agency a year ago. (Kat Ramirez for Fox News Digital)
HOUSE DEMOCRATS HOLD ‘SHADOW HEARINGS’ AS THEY BUILD CASE TO IMPEACH KRISTI NOEM
“Why would I do that? We have the strongest border in the history of our country,” Trump said. “We have the best crime numbers we’ve ever had going back to the year 1900. That’s 125 years. We have the lowest crime numbers.”
Trump also appointed Tom Homan, the former ICE director during Trump’s first term and the executive associate director of Enforcement and Removal Operations under President Barack Obama, to serve as border czar, a role previously held by Kamala Harris.
Some reports painted a picture of an unspoken rivalry between Homan and Noem following Trump’s decision to put Homan in command of the situation in Minneapolis.
NOEM SLAMS DEMS, BIDEN ADMINISTRATION FOR LACKING ‘COMPASSION’ AMID ANTI-ICE TENSIONS
But Noem told Fox News Digital she credited Homan for working to get local leaders in Minneapolis to come to the table and negotiate order in what has been a chaotic scene in the Twin Cities.
Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem speaks during a roundtable in the State Dining Room of the White House on Wednesday Oct. 8, 2025. (Demetrius Freeman/The Washington Post via Getty Images)
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“What people need to remember is that Democrat policies were destroying our country,” Noem said. “And President Trump came in and said, I’m going to protect the American people. It’s not going to happen anymore. “
“Since [the Biden administration], thousands of people’s lives have been saved just here, just right here on the border, because those migrants are not victimized anymore,” Noem added.
Preston Mizell is a writer with Fox News. Story tips can be sent to Preston.Mizell@fox.com and on X @MizellPreston
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