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Democrats Buoyed by Abortion and Trump, Times/Siena Poll Finds

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Democrats Buoyed by Abortion and Trump, Times/Siena Poll Finds

Whilst they battle to influence voters that they need to be trusted on the economic system, Democrats stay unexpectedly aggressive within the battle for Congress because the dash to November’s midterm election begins, a New York Instances/Siena Faculty ballot has discovered.

The stunning Democratic power has been bolstered by falling fuel costs and President Biden’s success at breaking by way of legislative gridlock in Washington to cross his agenda. That shift in political momentum has helped increase, in simply two months, the president’s approval score by 9 share factors and doubled the share of Individuals who consider the nation is heading in the right direction.

However Democrats are additionally benefiting from components over which they’d little management: the general public outcry in response to the Supreme Courtroom’s overturning of federal abortion rights and the return of former President Donald J. Trump to an attention-commanding presence on the nationwide stage.

General, 46 p.c of registered voters say they again the Democratic candidate for Congress of their district, in contrast with 44 p.c for Republicans — a distinction properly inside the survey’s margin of error. The findings are much like these from the final Instances/Siena ballot in July, when voters most popular, by only one share level, Democratic to Republican management of Congress.

But the basics of the race — excessive inflation, an unsure economic system and an unpopular president — stay difficult for Democrats. The nationwide temper, whereas brighter than earlier in the summertime, stays gloomy. Republicans nonetheless rating increased on some social points, together with unlawful immigration. And the president’s approval score continues to be simply 42 p.c — as weak as or weaker than the rankings of each president whose celebration went on to lose management of Congress in midterm elections, going again to 1978.

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For now, the fury over abortion and the renewed highlight on Mr. Trump have helped masks deep Democratic vulnerabilities that may finally make Republicans favored to retake Congress — if Republicans may refocus the voters on the economic system and inflation. Republicans would lead by six share factors within the race for Congress, if they may merely win over voters who say they agree with the G.O.P. most on the economic system.

Marvin Mirsch, 64, a self-identified impartial from suburban Minneapolis, stated he agreed with the Republicans on financial points however nonetheless deliberate to again Democrats in November. A biomedical engineer, he attributed his vote largely to at least one man: Mr. Trump.

“I believe that each particular person within the nation ought to work exhausting to purge Donald Trump from the Republican Social gathering in a technique or one other,” Mr. Mirsch stated. “As a result of we want a wholesome Republican Social gathering, and it’s not proper now — it’s sick.”

The survey underscored how Republicans have been weakened by Mr. Trump’s determination to play a vocal function in his celebration’s primaries. Voters stated that the phrase “excessive” described the Republicans higher than the Democrats by a six-point margin, 43 to 37 p.c. And, though they deemed financial points most vital extra voters stated that Democrats have been targeted on an important points than those that stated that Republicans have been, by 40 to 38 p.c.

Whereas the ballot didn’t straight ask voters how Mr. Trump weighed on their midterm vote, it discovered Mr. Biden main Mr. Trump by three share factors, 45 to 42 p.c, in a hypothetical 2024 matchup — practically an identical to voter preferences within the race for Congress.

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In distinction, voters belief the Republicans extra on the economic system by a 14-point margin, 52 to 38 p.c. And so they say that financial points will matter extra to their vote than do societal points by an 18-point margin.

But 9 p.c of the voters who belief Republicans extra on financial points and say that these points are most vital are voting for Democrats, anyway.


How Instances reporters cowl politics. We depend on our journalists to be impartial observers. So whereas Instances workers members could vote, they aren’t allowed to endorse or marketing campaign for candidates or political causes. This consists of taking part in marches or rallies in assist of a motion or giving cash to, or elevating cash for, any political candidate or election trigger.

Jeanine Spanjers, 44, from Racine, Wis., stated that rising inflation had brought about her to vary her way of life, together with driving much less, skipping holidays and even abstaining from popcorn when she goes to the films. A state worker, she additionally stated she believed that Democrats have been handing out too many authorities subsidies, pointing to reduction funds distributed throughout the pandemic.

“What’s getting on my nerves is all this free stuff,” she stated, criticizing how all the youngsters at her son’s faculty obtained meals stamp playing cards, together with households who may afford to pay for lunch. “Republicans would by no means do one thing like that. It disincentivizes folks to exit and do one thing. I’m beginning to really feel like individuals are being rewarded for not doing something.”

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Nonetheless, Ms. Spanjers stated she deliberate to vote just for Democrats, saying abortion is her prime difficulty. “I had made that selection as soon as, and I’ve two sons,” she stated. “There’s individuals who can’t afford youngsters and shouldn’t have youngsters, or simply perhaps it isn’t the appropriate time of their life.”

The ballot’s findings additionally counsel that Mr. Biden’s legislative successes have performed comparatively little to spice up his or his celebration’s credibility on financial points.

Solely 36 p.c of voters stated they accredited of a centerpiece of Mr. Biden’s legislative agenda, the well being and local weather spending invoice handed by Congress final month often known as the Inflation Discount Act. Greater than 1 / 4 stated they’d by no means even heard of it. The nation was divided over the administration’s scholar debt plan, with 49 p.c saying they supported the cancellation of as much as $20,000 price of federal scholar loans, in contrast with 45 p.c who say they opposed it.

Simply 15 p.c of voters stated that Mr. Biden’s insurance policies had helped them personally, whereas 37 p.c stated that his insurance policies had damage them. Almost half stated the president had not made a lot of a distinction both means — together with 59 p.c of voters youthful than 30.

“I’ve been working since I used to be 16, and I don’t have a highschool diploma, so the prices of inflation are actually affecting me,” stated Mykie Bush, 19, who works at an auto dealership in rural Oregon. “I can barely go away my home proper now due to inflation.”

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Nonetheless, Ms. Bush stated she deliberate to vote Democratic, saying her views on points like abortion, immigration and L.G.B.T.Q. rights outweighed her financial worries: “On the finish of the day, we’re not preventing over politics. We’re preventing over our human rights.”

Democrats held an amazing 73-to-18-percent lead amongst voters who stated that “societal points” like abortion or threats to democracy can be most vital of their vote this November, relatively than financial points like jobs and the price of residing.

However on points like immigration, crime and even gun coverage that had appeared prone to dominate the midterm marketing campaign earlier than the Supreme Courtroom’s determination to overturn Roe v. Wade, Republicans seem to carry vital benefits. Regardless of a summer time of mass shootings, voters by a slim margin stated they opposed a ban on semiautomatic weapons and high-capacity magazines.

Republican power extends even to probably the most divisive components of Mr. Trump’s agenda, with voters narrowly supporting a border wall. And, by a 14-point margin, voters stated they agreed extra with the Republican Social gathering stance on unlawful immigration.

The voters stays deeply divided alongside the demographic fault traces of the final election, with Democrats main amongst white faculty graduates, younger voters and nonwhite voters; Republicans maintain a commanding lead amongst white voters with out a faculty diploma. As within the July Instances/Siena survey, Republicans present even better power amongst white voters with out a diploma than they did in 2020, with an amazing 61-to-29-percent lead amongst that group.

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Jason Anzaldua, a Republican from Jefferson County, Ark., who’s a police lieutenant in rural Redfield, stated that he couldn’t afford the fuel to move his youngsters to compete in rodeo occasions and needed to promote a few of his horses as a result of the value of feed was too excessive. However he stated he was equally annoyed with what he noticed as Mr. Biden’s disrespect of those that supported Mr. Trump and the MAGA motion.

“I swore an oath to the Structure to uphold it, to guard it, to guard the residents right here on America’s entrance traces,” Mr. Anzaldua stated. “So for him to face up and inform me that I’m a part of the issue is a slap within the face as an American.”

Democrats and Republicans have been practically equally prone to say they supposed to end up this November, with 52 p.c of Republicans and 51 p.c of Democrats saying they have been “virtually sure” to vote.

Voters proceed to consider that abortion must be largely or all the time authorized by round a two-to-one margin. Nevertheless, the supporters of authorized abortion rights take pleasure in a good bigger enthusiasm edge: 52 p.c of voters stated they strongly opposed the Supreme Courtroom’s ruling to overturn Roe v. Wade; simply 19 p.c stated they strongly supported it.

“What has taken place is unacceptable to me,” stated James Moran, 82, a registered Republican from New Rochelle, N.Y., who stated that he deliberate to vote Democratic this 12 months. “They’ve denied girls the flexibility to regulate their very own our bodies. Ought to there be some restrict on that? There’s limits on the whole lot however the whole lot inside purpose.”

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The Instances/Siena survey of 1,399 registered voters nationwide, together with an oversample of 522 Hispanic voters, was performed by phone utilizing stay operators from Sept. 6 to 14, 2022. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.6 share factors. Cross-tabs and methodology can be found right here.

Kristen Bayrakdarian and Ruth Igielnik contributed reporting.

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Alaska lawmakers end their session with late bills passing on energy, education

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Alaska lawmakers end their session with late bills passing on energy, education

Alaska lawmakers ended their four-month session early Thursday with a flurry of last-minute bills addressing priority issues such as energy and correspondence school programs that are a focus of ongoing litigation.

Bickering over the budget was muted compared with prior years, and Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy and legislative leaders claimed successes in a session that was not without drama, marked by twofailed attempts to override Dunleavy vetoes of additional public school funding.

ALASKA LAWMAKERS FAIL TO OVERRIDE OF GOV. DUNLEAVY’S VETO OF EDUCATION PACKAGE

EDUCATION

Education was billed as a top priority, and lawmakers in the bipartisan-led Senate and Republican-led House overwhelmingly passed a compromise package that included a permanent $175 million increase in aid to districts through a school funding formula. But Dunleavy, who had sought charter school provisions and a three-year teacher bonus experiment that divided lawmakers, vetoed the measure.

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A veto override attempt failed, along with efforts in the House to cobble together another package. Ultimately, lawmakers settled for pieces including a one-time, $175 million boost to the foundation formula in the budget and additional funding intended to help K-3 students with reading.

Last year, Dunleavy vetoed half of a one-time, $175 million boost to schools but has signaled willingness to support the increase in the just-passed budget.

Sen. Löki Tobin, a Democrat who chairs the Senate Education Committee, said work remained to address issues facing public schools, which “are still going to be struggling” because the funding approved is inadequate. School officials and education advocates had pushed for a roughly $360 million permanent increase in funding.

Tom Klaameyer, president of NEA-Alaska, a teachers’ union, said the Legislature’s failure to reinstate a pension offering for public employees also was disheartening. A pension bill narrowly passed the Senate but stalled in the House. Senate leaders said work would continue around retirement issues.

Late in session, lawmakers pivoted to correspondence schools, which allow for students to be homeschooled under the authority of school districts. That focus came after a judge found that laws around correspondence school allotments “were drafted with the express purpose of allowing purchases of private educational services with the public correspondence student allotments.” Under the state constitution, public funds cannot be paid “for the direct benefit of any religious or other private educational institution.”

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Lawmakers passed a bill with provisions aimed at providing stability for correspondence students while the litigation plays out.

“The idea was to be able to give some peace and calm to the people out there, the 22,000 students, who weren’t sure what was going to happen,” House Speaker Cathy Tilton, a Republican, told reporters early Thursday.

UNDERGROUND CARBON STORAGE

The second of two bills proposed by Dunleavy as a way to capitalize on interest by companies with carbon emission reduction goals passed, allowing the state to establish a system and protocols for underground storage of carbon dioxide, with an eye toward using pore space in aging gas or oil fields, such as Cook Inlet or on the North Slope.

Lawmakers last year passed Dunleavy’s bill allowing the state to set up carbon sequestration projects or to lease state lands to a third party wanting to develop a carbon project. Draft regulations for the offsets program were released in March.

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Dunleavy previously pitched the bills as a novel means for Alaska to generate perhaps billions of dollars in new revenue while still embracing fossil fuel production and other resource extraction, such as timber harvests and coal production. But the revenue impact of the proposals remains speculative.

To pay for government, the state relies heavily on oil revenue and earnings from its nest-egg, an oil-wealth fund that has grown through investments. Lawmakers have been reluctant to raise taxes on industries, like oil, and Alaska, with about 737,000 residents, has no statewide sales or personal income taxes.

Rebecca Noblin is the policy justice director with the group Native Movement. In written testimony this month on the underground carbon storage bill, she said the measure “would allow oil and gas companies and coal plants to inject carbon from their operations back into the ground” and will “increase pollution, cost the state money and distract from real solutions to climate change.”

ENERGY

The carbon bill, HB50, also included a provision supporters said could encourage more gas production in Cook Inlet. So-called reserve-based lending would allow for the issuance of loans made against and secured by an oil and gas field, proven reserves or other assets of the borrower. Under the bill, loans could be made by the Alaska Industrial Development and Export Authority, a state corporation, for projects it deems necessary to bolster production.

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Residents in Alaska’s most populous region rely on gas from the aging Cook Inlet basin. But gas availability has become a concern and was a focal point this session. In February, Luke Saugier, senior vice president for Hilcorp Alaska, told lawmakers that while the company is “not pulling back” on investments in Cook Inlet and is committed to developing its leases, gas under its lease holdings can’t meet all the region’s gas demand. He said other sources of energy are needed.

Sen. Bill Wielechowski, an Anchorage Democrat, said the lending provision could unlock gas fields and end up being “one of the most important things that we have done this year.”

Dunleavy’s office also applauded passage of a separate measure that it says would streamline tax and tariff policies “to make new and existing electrical generation projects more affordable.”

“That in turn incentivizes independent power producers to move forward on renewable power projects like solar and wind farms along the Railbelt,” his office said in a statement.

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DIVIDEND

The size of the annual dividend paid to residents has often been one of the major points of contention, contributing to drawn-out or special sessions. But there was little pushback this year, with lawmakers agreeing to a dividend of roughly $1,360 and an energy relief payment of $295.

Legislative leaders pointed to better communication and a balancing of priorities, including what Republican Rep. DeLena Johnson, a House Finance co-chair, called a “solid” state infrastructure budget.

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Newsom administration unveils new $20-billion cost estimate for delta water tunnel

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Newsom administration unveils new $20-billion cost estimate for delta water tunnel

Gov. Gavin Newsom’s administration announced that the estimated cost of building a tunnel to transport water beneath the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta has risen to $20.1 billion.

The estimate is part of a new cost-benefit analysis by the California Department of Water Resources, which concluded that the projected benefits of constructing the water tunnel would far outweigh the costs.

State officials released the analysis Thursday, saying the proposed Delta Conveyance Project is vital to improving the reliability of water supplies in the face of climate change, sea level rise and the risks of an earthquake that could put existing infrastructure out of commission for months.

The state estimates that the project’s benefits would total nearly $38 billion by offsetting steep reductions in water deliveries due to existing infrastructure limitations and climate change.

A gull flies above McLeod Lake in Stockton.

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(Brian van der Brug/Los Angeles Times)

“The project easily passes a benefit-cost test,” said David Sunding, a UC Berkeley emeritus professor who led the analysis as a consultant for the state. “The benefits clearly justify the costs.”

The last time the state produced an estimate, in 2020, the price tag came to $16 billion. The cost increase, Sunding said, is almost entirely due to inflation. The projected benefits also increased.

The cost analysis is the state’s latest step toward building the 45-mile tunnel, which would create a second route to draw water from the Sacramento River into the aqueducts of the State Water Project.

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Newsom says the project is critical for California’s future, but opponents argue it is a costly boondoggle that would harm the delta and further imperil its ecosystem.

Environmental groups, Indigenous tribes, fishing organizations and local agencies have filed lawsuits seeking to block the project.

This week, dozens of groups filed protests with the State Water Resources Control Board challenging a state petition to change its “point of diversion” in the delta — one of the steps necessary to move forward with construction.

The State Water Project supplies 27 million people and about 750,000 acres of farmland — fueling a $2.3-trillion portion of the state’s economy.

Flooded rice fields along the San Joaquin River in Stockton.

Flooded rice fields along the San Joaquin River in Stockton.

(Brian van der Brug/Los Angeles Times)

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But state officials say the state’s existing pumping infrastructure in the south delta, which draws water into the California Aqueduct, is vulnerable to the more intense extremes driven by climate change, as well as sea level rise.

Aggressive and impactful reporting on climate change, the environment, health and science.

They estimate that if the state relies on its current infrastructure, there would likely be a 22% reduction in water deliveries by 2070. However, construction of the tunnel would boost supplies by an estimated 400,000 acre-feet annually, compared to the “no project” alternative.

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The estimates included an analysis of impacts from sea level rise — using scenarios of a 1.8 feet or 3.5 feet rise by 2070 — which would bring increasing risks of delta levees failing or being overtopped, and higher salinity water encroaching on existing infrastructure.

State officials also analyzed the risk that a major earthquake would pose to the existing infrastructure, which they say could disrupt deliveries of supplies for months. Sunding said the tunnel would have a “superior ability” to withstand earthquakes and would make the state’s system less vulnerable.

A sign of opposition to the Delta Conveyance Project along a levee road near the Sacramento River in Hood.

A sign of opposition to the Delta Conveyance Project along a levee road near the Sacramento River in Hood.

(Brian van der Brug/Los Angeles Times)

“I get a lump in my throat when I look at the potential for a catastrophic failure in the delta,” said Karla Nemeth, director of the state Department of Water Resources. “This is a project that just provides enormous value to the broad California economy.”

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Nemeth said the analysis shows that doing nothing would mean substantial costs for the state through frequent water shortages, mandatory restrictions in cities, and reductions in agricultural supplies that would force farmers to leave fields dry and fallow.

“It is vastly more efficient and economical to avoid declining supplies,” Nemeth said.

The costs of the project would be paid for by urban and agricultural water districts that decide to participate.

The state’s cost-benefit analysis is intended to provide information that local water agencies, such as the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California, will consider.

The Antioch Bridge over the San Joaquin River

The Antioch Bridge over the San Joaquin River.

(Brian van der Brug/Los Angeles Times)

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In preparing the updated cost estimate, the Delta Conveyance Design and Construction Authority examined potential “design and construction innovations” that could reduce the overall costs by about $1.2 billion.

Currently, about 56% of water deliveries from the State Water Project supply urban areas, while nearly 44% go to agriculture.

The analysis projects that with the tunnel, California would have fewer periods of mandatory water rationing and also less severe rationing, Sunding said. The project “helps to preserve the supplies that would otherwise be eroded through climate change,” he said.

State officials also compared the costs of additional supplies from the tunnel, at $1,325 per acre-foot, to the costs of additional supplies through investments in desalination, wastewater recycling, stormwater capture and conservation.

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Sunding said they found the median costs of these other types of investments would be higher, with the exception of conservation, which is “in the same ballpark” with the project.

“But it is important to note that we’ve done a lot of water conservation in the state, particularly in Southern California and some parts of the Bay Area, and a lot of the cheapest water conservation projects have already been done,” Sunding said. “So there are limits to how much more water conservation there can be.”

However, other experts say California still has a great deal of potential to continue reducing water use through conservation. Researchers with the Pacific Institute, a water think tank, found in a 2022 study that the state could reduce water use by more than 30% in cities and suburbs by investing in measures to use water more efficiently.

Opponents of the tunnel project have argued the state should instead invest in other approaches in the delta, such as shoring up levees and restoring natural floodplains to reduce flood risks, while changing water management to protect the estuary’s health.

An angler casts into a reservoir.

An angler casts into Bethany Reservoir in Byron.

(Brian van der Brug/Los Angeles Times)

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Fish populations have suffered declines in recent years, and environmentalists say the tunnel would cause additional ecological harm.

State officials say the tunnel would lessen limitations on water deliveries linked to fish protections at the state’s existing pumping facilities in the south delta.

They point to this year as an example. Despite a wet winter and ample river flows, a rise in the deaths of steelhead trout and other fish in areas around the pumps forced reductions in pumping.

The Department of Water Resources said that if the delta tunnel had been in operation this year, an additional 909,000 acre-feet of water could have been delivered from intakes in the north delta, helping to resolve what officials described as “difficult conflicts” in the south delta.

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“The status quo is not an option going forward. It’s just not something that can be maintained,” Sunding said. “One way or another, the system is going to change. Climate change is going to have its impact.”

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Illegal immigrants from foreign adversary hit new high amid national security fears: 'Extremely alarming'

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Illegal immigrants from foreign adversary hit new high amid national security fears: 'Extremely alarming'

A record-breaking number of Chinese nationals have illegally crossed the border nationwide so far this fiscal year, figures released this week show, an increase of nearly 8,000% since FY 2021.

Customs and Border Protection updated its encounter numbers for April, showing that now there have been 27,583 encounters of Chinese nationals by Border Patrol this fiscal year, which began in October.

That is compared to 24,125 in all of FY 2023, 1,987 in FY 2022 and just 342 in FY 2021.

ILLEGAL MIGRANTS FROM THIS FOREIGN ADVERSARY ARE INCREASINGLY CROSSING THE BORDER

Migrants in line in Jacumba, California. Border authorities are contending with an influx of Chinese migrants in a key border sector. (Robert Gauthier/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images)

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This means there has been a 7,965% increase from FY 2021 in numbers of Chinese crossing illegally. Of the 27,583 so far this FY 2024, 23,622, or 85%, were single adults.

More than 90% of the crossings this FY 2024 have been in the San Diego sector. There have also been more than 1,200 encounters in the first eight days of May, an average of more than 150 a day. 

Republicans and some border officials have raised concerns about the potential for espionage, as well as the smuggling of drugs like fentanyl. Republicans on a House Homeland Security subcommittee are holding a hearing Thursday on the matter, called, “Security Risk: The unprecedented surge in Chinese illegal immigration.” 

Democrats dismissed that hearing, calling it on their website, “Another Republican border ‘hearing’ with invasion rhetoric and fearmongering.”

SOUTHERN BORDER MIGRANT ENCOUNTERS DECREASE SLIGHTLY BUT GOTAWAYS STILL SURGE UNDER BIDEN 

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Chinese migrants speak to a border patrol officer before being processed

A Chinese migrant speaks to a border patrol officer before being processed after crossing the Rio Grande into the U.S. (Brandon Bell)

A committee spokesperson told Fox News Digital this week that the minority expects Republicans to use the hearing to “employ hyperbolic and xenophobic rhetoric to scaremonger about a ‘foreign invasion’ at the border.” 

“But the facts show that changes to Chinese migration reflect deteriorating economic and political conditions in China, and broader shifts in global migration patterns,” they said. “Responding to those shifts requires congressional action, including bipartisan legislation and additional funding for border security – which Republicans consistently oppose or block.”

Republicans on the committee described the dismissiveness as “disappointing.”

“It’s sad that House Democrats’ response to this hearing sounds more like Chinese state media than anything else,” Subcommittee on Oversight, Investigations, and Accountability Chairman Dan Bishop told Fox News Digital. 

“This fiscal year, apprehensions of Chinese nationals by Border Patrol agents at our Southwest border already exceed those from fiscal years 2007 – 2020 combined,” he said. “It should be extremely alarming to everyone, regardless of party, when record numbers of individuals from an adversarial nation flood into our country without vetting or oversight. House Democrats are clearly uninterested in combating this national security threat, which is disappointing — but not surprising.”

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Overall, the numbers of migrant encounters in April declined slightly. There were 179,725 encounters across the southern border in April, compared to 211,992 in April 2023 and 189,357 in March. 

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