Politics
Cross-Tabs: September 2024 Times/Siena Poll of Registered Voters Nationwide
How This Poll Was Conducted
Here are the key things to know about this Times/Siena poll:
• Interviewers spoke with 1,695 registered voters across the country from Sept. 3 to 6, 2024.
• Times/Siena polls are conducted by telephone, using live interviewers, in both English and Spanish. About 96 percent of respondents were contacted on a cellphone for this poll.
• Voters are selected for the survey from a list of registered voters. The list contains information on the demographic characteristics of every registered voter, allowing us to make sure we reach the right number of voters of each party, race and region. For this poll, interviewers placed nearly 194,000 calls to nearly 104,000 voters.
• To further ensure that the results reflect the entire voting population, not just those willing to take a poll, we give more weight to respondents from demographic groups that are underrepresented among survey respondents, like people without a college degree. You can see more information about the characteristics of our respondents and the weighted sample at the bottom of the page, under “Composition of the Sample.”
• The poll’s margin of sampling error among likely voters is plus or minus 2.8 percentage points. In theory, this means that the results should reflect the views of the overall population most of the time, though many other challenges create additional sources of error. When computing the difference between two values — such as a candidate’s lead in a race — the margin of error is twice as large.
If you want to read more about how and why The Times/Siena Poll is conducted, you can see answers to frequently asked questions and submit your own questions here.
Full Methodology
The New York Times/Siena College poll of 1,695 registered voters nationwide, including 1,374 who completed the full survey, was conducted in English and Spanish on cellular and landline telephones from Sept. 3 to 6, 2024. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 2.8 percentage points for the likely electorate and plus or minus 2.6 percentage points for registered voters. Among those who completed the full survey, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.2 percentage points for the likely electorate and plus or minus 3.0 percentage points for registered voters.
Sample
The survey is a response rate-adjusted stratified sample of registered voters on the L2 voter file. The sample was selected by The New York Times in multiple steps to account for differential telephone coverage, nonresponse and significant variation in the productivity of telephone numbers by state.
First, records were selected by state. To adjust for noncoverage bias, the L2 voter file was stratified by statehouse district, party, race, gender, marital status, household size, turnout history, age and home ownership. The proportion of registrants with a telephone number and the mean expected response rate were calculated for each stratum. The mean expected response rate was based on a model of unit nonresponse in prior Times/Siena surveys. The initial selection weight was equal to the reciprocal of a stratum’s mean telephone coverage and modeled response rate. For respondents with multiple telephone numbers on the L2 file, the number with the highest modeled response rate was selected.
Second, state records were selected for the national sample. The number of records selected by state was based on a model of unit nonresponse in prior Times/Siena national surveys as a function of state, telephone number quality and other demographic and political characteristics. The state’s share of records was equal to the reciprocal of the mean response rate of the state’s records, divided by the national sum of the weights.
Fielding
The sample was stratified according to political party, race and region and fielded by the Siena College Research Institute, with additional field work by ReconMR and the Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research at Winthrop University in South Carolina. Interviewers asked for the person named on the voter file and ended the interview if the intended respondent was not available. Overall, 96 percent of respondents were reached on a cellular telephone.
The instrument was translated into Spanish by ReconMR. Bilingual interviewers began the interview in English and were instructed to follow the lead of the respondent in determining whether to conduct the survey in English or Spanish. Monolingual Spanish-speaking respondents who were initially contacted by English-speaking interviewers were recontacted by Spanish-speaking interviewers. Overall, 15 percent of interviews among self-reported Hispanics were conducted in Spanish, including 23 percent of weighted interviews.
An interview was determined to be complete for the purposes of inclusion in the ballot test question if the respondent did not drop out of the survey by the end of the two self-reported variables used in weighting — age and education — and answered at least one of the age, education or presidential election ballot test questions.
Weighting — registered voters
The survey was weighted by The Times using the R survey package in multiple steps.
First, the sample was adjusted for unequal probability of selection by stratum.
Second, the sample was weighted to match voter file-based parameters for the characteristics of registered voters.
The following targets were used:
• Party (party registration if available in the state, else classification based on participation in partisan primaries if available in the state, else classification based on a model of vote choice in prior Times/Siena polls) by whether the respondent’s race is modeled as white or nonwhite (L2 model)
• Age (Self-reported age, or voter file age if the respondent refuses) by gender (L2)
• Race or ethnicity (L2 model)
• Education (four categories of self-reported education level, weighted to match NYT-based targets derived from Times/Siena polls, census data and the L2 voter file)
• White/non-white race by college or non-college educational attainment (L2 model of race weighted to match NYT-based targets for self-reported education)
• Marital status (L2 model)
• Home ownership (L2 model)
• National region (NYT classifications by state)
• Turnout history (NYT classifications based on L2 data)
• Method of voting in the 2020 elections (NYT classifications based on L2 data)
• Metropolitan status (2013 NCHS Urban-Rural Classification Scheme for Counties)
• Census tract educational attainment
Finally, the sample of respondents who completed all questions in the survey was weighted identically, as well as to the result for the general election horse race question (including leaners) on the full sample.
Weighting — likely electorate
The survey was weighted by The Times using the R survey package in multiple steps.
First, the samples were adjusted for unequal probability of selection by stratum.
Second, the first-stage weight was adjusted to account for the probability that a registrant would vote in the 2024 election, based on a model of turnout in the 2020 election.
Third, the sample was weighted to match targets for the composition of the likely electorate. The targets for the composition of the likely electorate were derived by aggregating the individual-level turnout estimates described in the previous step for registrants on the L2 voter file. The categories used in weighting were the same as those previously mentioned for registered voters.
Fourth, the initial likely electorate weight was adjusted to incorporate self-reported intention to vote. Four-fifths of the final probability that a registrant would vote in the 2024 election was based on their ex ante modeled turnout score and one-fifth based on their self-reported intentions, based on prior Times/Siena polls, including a penalty to account for the tendency of survey respondents to turn out at higher rates than nonrespondents. The final likely electorate weight was equal to the modeled electorate rake weight, multiplied by the final turnout probability and divided by the ex ante modeled turnout probability.
Finally, the sample of respondents who completed all questions in the survey was weighted identically, as well as to the result for the general election horse race question (including leaners) on the full sample.
The margin of error accounts for the survey’s design effect, a measure of the loss of statistical power due to survey design and weighting. The design effect for the full sample is 1.38 for the likely electorate and 1.21 for registered voters. The design effect for the sample of completed interviews is 1.43 for the likely electorate and 1.26 for registered voters.
Historically, The Times/Siena Poll’s error at the 95th percentile has been plus or minus 5.1 percentage points in surveys taken over the final three weeks before an election. Real-world error includes sources of error beyond sampling error, such as nonresponse bias, coverage error, late shifts among undecided voters and error in estimating the composition of the electorate.
LAS VEGAS – Sen. Steve Daines of Montana, the chair of the Senate Republicans’ campaign committee, for the first time is definitively saying his party will recapture control of the chamber in November’s elections.
“We will win the Senate majority” the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) chair said in an interview with Fox News Digital.
“Fifty-one is the number that we want to get to. Clearly, there’s an opportunity to get beyond that, but 51 is the number we’ve got to get to,” Daines added, as he spoke along the sidelines of the Republican Jewish Coalition’s annual leadership meeting on Thursday in Las Vegas.
Democrats control the Senate by a razor-thin 51-49 margin, and Republicans are looking at a favorable election map this year with Democrats defending 23 of the 34 seats up for grabs.
SENATE DEMOCRATS CAMPAIGN CHAIR GOES ONE-ON-ONE WITH FOX NEWS
One of those seats is in West Virginia, a deep red state that former President Trump carried by nearly 40 points in 2020. With moderate Democrat-turned-Independent Sen. Joe Manchin, a former governor, not seeking re-election, flipping the seat is nearly a sure thing for the GOP.
Additionally, in Daines’ home state of Montana and in Ohio, two states Trump comfortably carried four years ago, Republicans are aiming to defeat Democratic Sens. Jon Tester and Sherrod Brown.
REPUBLICAN AIMING TO FLIP DEMOCRAT HELD SENATE SEAT IN RED STATE MAKING GAINS
Five more Democratic-held seats are up for grabs this year in crucial presidential-election battleground states.
With Democrats trying to protect their fragile Senate majority, former GOP Gov. Larry Hogan of blue-state Maryland’s late entry into the Senate race in February gave them an unexpected headache in a state previously considered safe territory. Hogan left the governor’s office at the beginning of 2023 with very positive approval and favorable ratings.
Sen. Steve Daines of Montana, chair of teh National Republican Senatorial Committee, speaks on Sept. 5, 2024 in Las Vegas, Nevada at the Republican Jewish Coalition’s annual leadership meeting (Fox News – Paul Steinhauser)
Minutes after speaking with Fox News, Daines made his pitch to top dollar donors and influential conservative activists in order to remedy the cash disparity between GOP campaigns and those of Democrats.
“We need your help to close the fundraising gap,” Daines emphasized as he addressed the Republican Jewish Coalition crowd. “We have the right candidates. Let’s get them the resources they need to win.”
In his interview, Daines pointed to the GOP’s fundraising gap and acknowledged, “it’s a concern of mine.”
“There are winnable races right now that we may not be able to bring across the finish line because of lack of resources. We are literally two months away from the most consequential election of my lifetime,” Daines emphasized. “That’s why we’re working very, very hard to make sure we’re ringing that alarm bell to get to donors.”
Democrats have outraised and outspent their Republican counterparts in the 2024 battle for the Senate majority, and looking forward, they have dished out more money for ad reservations for the final two months leading up to Election Day on Nov. 5.
Senate Democrats and outside groups supporting them have made significantly larger post-Labor Day ad reservations in four of the seven key Senate battlegrounds, per AdImpact. In Wisconsin, Nevada, Michigan and Arizona each, Democratic ad reservation spending is at least double that of their respective Republican opponents, presenting a stark obstacle for GOP candidates, some of whom already face name recognition issues and the hurdle of taking on an incumbent.
HEAD HERE FOR THE LATEST FOX NEWS 2024 ELECTION POLLS
Overall, Democrats have an advantage over their Republican Senate foes with nearly $348 million in planned spending in pivotal races across the country ahead of election day, compared to Republicans’ over $255 million.
The relatively small GOP expenditures in Wisconsin, Nevada, Michigan and Arizona appear to be a result of massive prioritized pro-Republican Senate ad buys in Montana, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Republicans are managing to outspend Democrats in these states, but their opponents have still boasted similarly large planned spending. In Ohio, while Republicans had $81.9 million reserved, Democratic future spending wasn’t far behind at $78.3 million, according to AdImpact.
Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris and President Joe Biden arrive at a campaign event at the IBEW Local Union #5 union hall in Pittsburgh, on Labor Day, Monday, Sept. 2, 2024. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin) (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)
Fueling the financial disparity, the surge in Democratic Party enthusiasm and fundraising in the month and a half since Vice President Kamala Harris replaced President Biden at the top of the party’s 2024 ticket in the White House race against former President Donald Trump.
“You just saw in the last 48 hours Kamala Harris announce she’s directing $25 million of her presidential campaign dollars down-ballot including $10 million for Senate Democrats,” Daines spotlighted. “There’s not many things Kamala Harris does well but one thing she does well is raise money. So this does have us concerned.”
However, Daines said there is a silver lining when it comes to Harris replacing the 81-year-old Biden in the White House race.
“What it does is it helps us take the age issue off the table because that was one of the reasons that Biden did so poorly. It was more about his age than anything else,” Daines said. “This now gets us laser focused on policy. This is going to be a policy contrast election….For the first time in decades, we have the results of two different administrations to run against – President Trump’s four years and Kamala Harris’ four years. Two very different administrations – very different outcomes. That contrast, we think will be very helpful for us in the key Senate races.”
Get the latest updates from the 2024 campaign trail, exclusive interviews and more at our Fox News Digital election hub.
Politics
Harris visits spice shop known for hating and slamming Republicans, calls for end of 'divisiveness'
Kamala Harris made a campaign stop on Saturday at a spice shop known to openly discriminate against Republicans while calling for an end to political “divison.”
The spice shop, Penzeys Spices in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, welcomed the Democrat nominee to browse the store and meet some supporters.
While facing a gaggle of reporters, Harris claimed, “It’s time to turn the page on the divisiveness. It’s time to bring our country together, chart a new way forward.”
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“A lot of what I think is happening, and I was just talking with some folks here in Pittsburgh about it, is that people are exhausted about the division and the attempts to kind of divide us as Americans,” said Harris. “And, them stepping up to make this public statement, I think is, courageous.”
“But also for people like the folks I was just talking with, it really reinforces for them that we love our country, and we have more in common than what separates us,” asserted Harris in the spice shop.
US Vice President and 2024 Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris greets people during a campaign stop at Penzeys Spices in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, on September 7, 2024. (MANDEL NGAN/AFP via Getty Images)
Penzeys Spices has an entire “About Republicans” page on their website with a staggering 842-word essay bashing the political party.
For contrast, the “About Us” page on the Penzeys website features only 461 words, including “We are trying to make the world a better place.”
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Part of the “About Republicans” page on their site, penned by CEO Bill Penzey, informs Republicans they can shop elsewhere: “Going forward we would still be glad to have you as customers, but we’re done pretending the Republican Party’s embrace of cruelty, racism, Covid lies, climate change denial, and threats to democracy are anything other than the risks they legitimately are.”
“If you need us to pretend you are not creating the hurt you are creating in order for you to continue to be our customer, I’m sad to say you might be happier elsewhere,” reads the Penzeys Spices website.
US Vice President and 2024 Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris answers questions from reporters during a campaign stop at Penzeys Spices in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, on September 7, 2024. (MANDEL NGAN/AFP via Getty Images)
Penzeys recently launched an advertisement campaign for their “Justice” spice blend directed at former President Donald Trump, saying “Re-Indicted and it Feels So Good!”
“Sorry Kamala, ‘Scary Spice’ is already taken!” said Former President Trump’s campaign in response to Kamala’s visit.
Penzeys Spices CEO Bill Penzey is no stranger to controversy. In 2022, he came under fire for renaming Martin Luther King Jr. Day to “Republicans Are Racist Weekend!”
The spice brand lost 40,000 subscribers in January 2022 according to the Penzeys Spices Facebook page for the stunt, but did not offer an apology.
Penzeys Spices did not immediately respond to Fox News Digital’s request for comment.
Former President Trump painted a gloomy picture of a potential Harris presidency during a campaign speech on Saturday, claiming that Israel would be “doomed” under Harris’ watch and that the upcoming November election “may be our last.”
Speaking to a crowd in Mosinee, Wisconsin, Trump promised to “prevent World War III,” after speaking to the crowd about topics ranging from Social Security reform to implementing tariffs.
“I will end the chaos in the Middle East and I will prevent World War III,” Trump said at the podium. “And I’m the only one that can do it. I will prevent World War III.”
“And if I don’t win this election, Israel, with comrade Kamala Harris at the helm of the United States, is doomed.” he continued. “Israel is doomed.”
HARRIS CAMPAIGN AGREES TO ABC PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE RULES WITH SOME ‘ASSURANCES’: REPORT
Donald Trump claimed that Israel may cease to exist under a Harris presidential administration. (Associated Press)
Acknowledging that the claim was a “tough statement,” the Republican nominee expanded on his argument and said that Americans “may have no country left,” if Israel were to be defeated.
“Israel will be gone,” Trump added. “One year, two years. Israel will no longer exist. I better win, I better win, or you’re going to have problems like we’ve never had.”
“We may have no country left. It may be our last election.”
TRUMP SLAMS ABC AHEAD OF PIVOTAL NETWORK-HOSTED DEBATE: ‘THEY’RE THE WORST, THEY’RE THE NASTIEST’
Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump gestures as he departs a campaign event at Central Wisconsin Airport, Saturday, Sept. 7, 2024, in Mosinee, Wis. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
Harris has also accused Trump of threatening democracy in the past. Last month, Harris said that Trump “wants to be an autocrat.”
“I will not cozy up to tyrants and dictators like Kim Jong-Un, who are rooting for Trump because they know he is easy to manipulate with flattery and favors,” the Democratic nominee claimed.
“They know Trump won’t hold autocrats accountable – because he wants to be an autocrat.”
Guests attend a campaign event with Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump on September 07, 2024 in Mosinee, Wisconsin. (Scott Olson/Getty Images)
Fox News Digital reached out to the Harris campaign for comment.
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Cross-Tabs: September 2024 Times/Siena Poll of the Likely Electorate
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Harris visits spice shop known for hating and slamming Republicans, calls for end of 'divisiveness'
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