Crypto
Prediction Market Traders Give Bitcoin 76% Odds of Hitting $50K Before $100K
Key Takeaways
- Kalshi traders assign a 76% probability that bitcoin hits $50,000 before $100,000, up 35% in recent weeks.
- Polymarket’s $45M annual bitcoin market prices a 64% chance BTC falls to $50,000 or lower before Dec. 31, 2026.
- Kalshi’s $10.3M timeline market gives bitcoin only a 14% chance of crossing $100,000 before January 2027.
Bearish Consensus Builds Across Platforms
The largest signal comes from Kalshi, where a market asking “Will BTC hit $50,000 before $100,000?” now shows a 76% probability favoring the downside. That figure represents a 35% increase in probability in recent weeks. The contract has drawn $54,516 in total trading volume and resolves based on the CF Real-Time Index, using a 60-second average to confirm which threshold is crossed first. If neither is reached by Dec. 31, 2026, the market defaults to “No.”
The result: a strong majority of active traders on Kalshi believe bitcoin tests $50,000 before it sees six figures again.
June Price Range Looks Tight
On Polymarket, a market focused on bitcoin’s June 2026 price range has pulled in $30.3 million in trading volume. With bitcoin trading near $60,000 on Sunday, the crowd gives a 33% chance the price drops to or below $57,500 this month, versus a 29% chance of reaching $62,500 or above. Targets at $67,500 or higher carry odds of 1% or less. A drop to $55,000 carries a 7% probability.
The range reflects a market pricing limited upside in the near term and real downside risk through June 30.
$100K Timeline Looks Distant
Kalshi’s “When will Bitcoin cross $100k again?” market, which has accumulated $10.3 million in trading volume, shows traders see almost no chance of a near-term recovery. The odds of bitcoin crossing $100,000 before July 2026 are below 1%. Before October 2026, those odds sit at 6%. Even extending the window to January 2027 only brings the probability to 14%.
Polymarket’s companion market, “When will bitcoin hit $150k?”, paints a similar picture. With $26.9 million in total volume, traders give the $150,000 milestone less than a 1% chance of being reached by June 30. The year-end December 2026 window carries just 5% odds.
2026 Annual Targets Show Wide Range
Polymarket’s largest active bitcoin market, asking “What price will bitcoin hit in 2026?”, has drawn $45 million in trading volume. It tracks price milestones from Nov. 24, 2025, through Dec. 31, 2026, using Binance’s 1-minute candle data on the BTC/ USDT pair.
Current crowd pricing shows:
- $55,000 or lower: 78% probability
- $50,000 or lower: 64% probability
- $70,000: 67% probability
- $75,000: 50% probability
- $80,000: 36% probability
- $90,000: 20% probability
- $100,000: 10% probability
- $160,000 and above: 1% to 2% probability
The data reflects a market that expects bitcoin to both dip below current levels and potentially recover to the $70,000 range within the year, while viewing anything above $90,000 as a long shot.
$57,500 Floor Gets Priced In
Kalshi’s “How low will BTC get in June?” market has logged $1.7 million in volume. Traders are pricing a 32% chance bitcoin’s trimmed mean price falls below $57,500 before June 30. The odds drop sharply for deeper cuts: 7% for a close below $55,000, and 2% for a move below $52,500.
What the Data Shows
Prediction markets aggregate real money from traders willing to back their views with capital. The consistency across Polymarket and Kalshi, covering several separate contracts and more than $75 million in combined volume, points to a cohesive view: Bitcoin faces meaningful near-term downside, the $100,000 level is not expected to be reclaimed in 2026 by most prediction marketplace participants, and the floor around $50,000 to $55,000 is being actively priced as a realistic outcome before year-end.
At the time of writing, bitcoin was trading near $59,500, down roughly 31.5% from the high of the tracking period on the year’s largest Polymarket contract.
Crypto
This Group of Four Now Dominates Over 70% of a Key Blockchain Resource
Key Takeaways
- Foundry Digital, AntPool, ViaBTC and F2Pool held 70%+ of Bitcoin hashrate on Jun. 23, 2026.
- D-Central put Bitcoin’s Nakamoto coefficient at 3, raising centralization concerns in H1 2026.
- ViaBTC scrutiny in 2026 may push miners toward EMCD, which advertises 1.5% FPPS fees.
Bitcoin mining is looking less like a wide-open competition and more like a tight club. A CryptoSlate partner article published on 07/08/2026, citing miningpoolstats.stream data as of 06/23/2026, says Foundry Digital, AntPool, ViaBTC, and F2Pool together account for more than 70% of the network’s hashrate. The shift is fueling what the coverage calls a “two-tier market,” with the biggest pools increasingly tuned for institutional clients while independents and mid-size operators get squeezed. Some smaller miners are already quietly reconsidering where they point their machines, especially as ViaBTC faces added regulatory scrutiny in 2026.
Bitcoin mining is often talked about like a wide-open frontier, but mid-2026 looks more like a handful of toll roads. A July 8, 2026 CryptoSlate article (partner content) points to a June 23, 2026 snapshot showing just a few pools taking an outsized role in where blocks get made, and what kind of miners get served best.
The rise of four dominant players in Bitcoin mining
As of that June 23 snapshot, four pools controlled more than 70% of Bitcoin’s hashrate: Foundry Digital, AntPool, ViaBTC, and F2Pool. The estimated split was stark: Foundry at 31%, AntPool at 18%, ViaBTC at 13%, and F2Pool at 10%, per 31%, 18%, 13%, 10% figures cited in the coverage.
One detail that matters for US operators is that Foundry is US-based and backed by Digital Currency Group. The pool is described as being built primarily for large-scale, institutional operators and publicly traded mining companies, with strict KYC requirements baked into how it onboards clients.
A two-tier market takes shape
CryptoSlate frames the concentration as a “two-tier market,” where the biggest pools increasingly optimize for institutional miners. That kind of optimization is usually invisible until you are the one fighting for responsiveness, predictable payouts, or account support, and it is why independent and mid-size miners are described as quietly rethinking where they point their machines.
The key shift is less about any single pool’s branding and more about what scale buys you. When a pool’s business is tuned for fleets and compliance-heavy customers, smaller miners can end up feeling like edge cases instead of the core product.
Scrutiny, switching costs, and the search for alternatives
ViaBTC, which held 13% in the mid-2026 share estimates, has faced increasing regulatory scrutiny this year that has particularly affected miners tied to Russia and other CIS countries. The reporting describes account restrictions, sudden KYC demands, and temporary fund freezes, the kind of friction that can make even loyal miners reconsider their setup.
In the same coverage, EMCD is positioned as an alternative: it claims over 30 EH/s of hashrate, with fees starting at 1.5% under FPPS, compared with roughly 4% charged by many comparable pools. EMCD was founded in 2017 and made its first pool available in February 2018.
What centralization looks like in the metrics
In D-Central’s H1 2026 snapshot (data as of June 19, 2026), Bitcoin mining pools had a Nakamoto coefficient of 3, meaning only 3 pools were needed to exceed half of all blocks mined, with Foundry USA at roughly 27% of blocks, per Nakamoto coefficient data.
And the leaderboard keeps moving. In the latest 7-day window posted on July 16, 2026, Simple Mining’s rankings list Foundry USA at 27.0%, with F2Pool and AntPool both at 17.2%, ViaBTC at 9.5%, and SpiderPool at 5.5%.
Crypto
Kaspersky uncovers OkoBot framework targeting crypto wallet users
Global cybersecurity firm Kaspersky has identified a malware framework called OkoBot that targets crypto users by stealing wallet seed phrases, credentials and other sensitive data through a collection of more than 20 malicious components.
The campaign, first identified in January 2026, has compromised hundreds of victims across more than 25 countries, with Brazil, Vietnam, Canada, Mexico and Türkiye among the most affected.
During the investigation, researchers found that attackers distribute the malware through ClickFix social engineering schemes and fake software downloads hosted on GitHub, allowing the framework to infect devices and deploy additional malware, including the Rilide browser stealer.
The framework consists of more than 20 payloads capable of stealing crypto wallets, harvesting credentials, recording video, downloading malicious browser extensions and executing remote commands.
Among OkoBot’s components are TookPS, which exfiltrates wallet seed phrases, OkoSpyware, which monitors Chromium-based browsers and records user activity, and SeedHunter, which injects malicious code into Trezor and Ledger wallet software to display phishing pages requesting recovery phrases.
Kaspersky said the campaign is still active and while its operators have not been identified, its techniques and code artifacts suggest links to Russian-speaking cybercriminals.
Crypto
‘Useless Plastic’: NSPK CEO Declares the End of Visa and Mastercard in Russia
Key Takeaways
- Mir cards captured 85% of Russia’s market as sanctions rendered Visa and Mastercard effectively useless.
- Remaining foreign cards will soon fail due to physical wear and the expiration of security certificates.
- Russia’s central bank announced a gradual phase-out for international cards without strict timeframes.
Mastercard and Visa ‘Absent’ from Russia as Cards Reach Expiration
As local options rise, the Russian card market is being increasingly driven by Mir alternatives after Mastercard and Visa, the two international credit giants, exited the country amid a sanctions push.
Dmitry Dubynin, CEO of the National Payment Card System (NSPK), stressed that international cards were absent from the Russian market, with local alternatives retaking almost all of the credit card market share.
“I would even say that Visa and Mastercard cards are effectively absent from the Russian market. Their cards no longer provide any value: they do not work abroad, there is no access to the loyalty programs of these payment systems, and so on,” said Dubynin in an interview with Expert magazine.
Dubynin compared these leftover cards to pieces of plastic bearing the logos of international companies that no longer operate in Russia, stressing that local support kept them operating.
He commented that eventually, these cards will fail as they endure wear and tear and their security certificates expire. Nonetheless, the NSPK is implementing measures to ensure its continued operation even under these circumstances.
“The share of cards issued by international payment systems continues to decline naturally. Today, nearly 85% of the market is accounted for by Mir cards, and that share will undoubtedly continue to grow,” Dubynin assessed.
Earlier statements by Alla Bakina, Director of the Bank of Russia’s National Payment System Department, who invited Visa and Mastercard to leave the country completely due to the lack of functionality of their cards, raised concerns among the population that still relied on these solutions.
Nonetheless, on July 2, central bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina disclosed that there would be no timeframes for their withdrawal, indicating that they would be phased out gradually.
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