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Commentary: With midterm vote starting, here’s where things stand in national redistricting fight

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Commentary: With midterm vote starting, here’s where things stand in national redistricting fight

Donald Trump has never been one to play by the rules.

Whether it’s stiffing contractors as a real estate developer, defying court orders he doesn’t like as president or leveraging the Oval Office to vastly inflate his family’s fortune, Trump’s guiding principle can be distilled to a simple, unswerving calculation: What’s in it for me?

Trump is no student of history. He’s famously allergic to books. But he knows enough to know that midterm elections like the one in November have, with few exceptions, been ugly for the party holding the presidency.

With control of the House — and Trump’s virtually unchecked authority — dangling by a gossamer thread, he reckoned correctly that Republicans were all but certain to lose power this fall unless something unusual happened.

So he effectively broke the rules.

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Normally, the redrawing of the country’s congressional districts takes place once every 10 years, following the census and accounting for population changes over the previous decade. Instead, Trump prevailed upon the Republican governor of Texas, Greg Abbott, to throw out the state’s political map and refashion congressional lines to wipe out Democrats and boost GOP chances of winning as many as five additional House seats.

The intention was to create a bit of breathing room, as Democrats need a gain of just three seats to seize control of the House.

In relatively short order, California’s Democratic governor, Gavin Newsom, responded with his own partisan gerrymander. He rallied voters to pass a tit-for-tat ballot measure, Proposition 50, which revised the state’s political map to wipe out Republicans and boost Democratic prospects of winning as many as five additional seats.

Then came the deluge.

In more than a dozen states, lawmakers looked at ways to tinker with their congressional maps to lift their candidates, stick it to the other party and gain House seats in November.

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Some of those efforts continue, including in Virginia where, as in California, voters are being asked to amend the state Constitution to let majority Democrats redraw political lines ahead of the midterm. A special election is set for April 21.

But as the first ballots of 2026 are cast on Tuesday — in Arkansas, North Carolina and Texas — the broad contours of the House map have become clearer, along with the result of all those partisan machinations. The likely upshot is a nationwide partisan shift of fewer than a handful of seats.

The independent, nonpartisan Cook Political Report, which has a sterling decades-long record of election forecasting, said the most probable outcome is a wash. “At the end of the day,” said Erin Covey, who analyzes House races for the Cook Report, “this doesn’t really benefit either party in a real way.”

Well.

That was a lot of wasted time and energy.

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Let’s take a quick spin through the map and the math, knowing that, of course, there are no election guarantees.

In Texas, for instance, new House districts were drawn assuming Latinos would back Republican candidates by the same large percentage they supported Trump in 2024. But that’s become much less certain, given the backlash against his draconian immigration enforcement policies; numerous polls show a significant falloff in Latino support for the president, which could hurt GOP candidates up and down the ballot.

But suppose Texas Republicans gain five seats as hoped for and California Democrats pick up the five seats they’ve hand-crafted. The result would be no net change.

Elsewhere, under the best case for each party, a gain of four Democratic House seats in Virginia would be offset by a gain of four Republican House seats in Florida.

That leaves a smattering of partisan gains here and there. A combined pickup of four or so Republican seats in Ohio, North Carolina and Missouri could be mostly offset by Democratic gains of a seat apiece in New York, Maryland and Utah.

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(The latter is not a result of legislative high jinks, but rather a judge throwing out the gerrymandered map passed by Utah Republicans, who ignored a voter-approved ballot measure intended to prevent such heavy-handed partisanship. A newly created district, contained entirely within Democratic-leaning Salt Lake County, seems certain to go Democrats’ way in November.)

In short, it’s easy to characterize the political exertions of Trump, Abbott, Newsom and others as so much sound and fury producing, at bottom, little to nothing.

But that’s not necessarily so.

The campaign surrounding Proposition 50 delivered a huge political boost to Newsom, shoring up his standing with Democrats, significantly raising his profile across the country and, not least for his 2028 presidential hopes, helping the governor build a significant nationwide fundraising base.

In crimson-colored Indiana, Republicans refused to buckle under tremendous pressure from Trump, Vice President JD Vance and other party leaders, rejecting an effort to redraw the state’s congressional map and give the GOP a hold on all nine House seats. That showed even Trump’s Svengali-like hold on his party has its limits.

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But the biggest impact is also the most corrosive.

By redrawing political lines to predetermine the outcome of House races, politicians rendered many of their voters irrelevant and obsolete. Millions of Democrats in Texas, Republicans in California and partisans in other states have been effectively disenfranchised, their voices rendered mute. Their ballots spindled and nullified.

In short, the politicians — starting with Trump — extended a big middle finger to a large portion of the American electorate.

Is it any wonder, then, so many voters hold politicians and our political system in contempt?

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DHS slams Democrat Sen Chris Van Hollen claim, says illegal alien caused crash while fleeing ICE

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DHS slams Democrat Sen Chris Van Hollen claim, says illegal alien caused crash while fleeing ICE

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The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) on Saturday pushed back on claims by Sen. Chris Van Hollen, D-Md., that ICE agents struck an “asylum seeker,” saying the man is an illegal immigrant who caused a crash while trying to evade arrest.

DHS told Fox News that the man in question is a Honduran illegal immigrant with a final order of removal dating back to 2018.

According to DHS, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers attempted to arrest the individual, identified as Ever Omar Alvarenga-Rios, on Thursday in Baltimore, but he allegedly tried to evade arrest.

When officers conducted a vehicle stop, Alvarenga allegedly failed to comply with law enforcement and “drove recklessly” through the city, DHS said.

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DHS SAYS ILLEGAL IMMIGRANT INJURED HEAD AFTER HITTING CONCRETE WALL WHILE FLEEING ICE, DENIES BEATING CLAIMS

DHS said a migrant caused a crash while attempting to evade ICE agents in Baltimore. (Department of Homeland Security)

DHS claimed that Alvarenga then “slammed on his brakes,” causing a multi-vehicle crash.

He then attempted to flee on foot and ignored law enforcement commands, DHS said, adding that ICE officers “followed their training and used the minimum amount of force necessary to make the arrest.”

DHS said the two officers involved in the incident were injured and taken to the hospital.

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DHS SAYS ICE AGENTS RAMMED BY VEHICLES AMID MINNEAPOLIS ENFORCEMENT SURGE: ‘AGGRESSIVELY ASSAULTED’

DHS disputed Sen. Chris Van Hollen’s, D-Md., account of an ICE incident involving a migrant in Baltimore. (Kayla Bartkowski/Getty Images)

“This illegal alien broke our laws, resisted arrest, sent two ICE law enforcement officers to the hospital, and endangered the general public. Thankfully both our officers are expected to make a full recovery,” DHS Acting Assistant Secretary Lauren Bis said in a statement.

“This dangerous attempt to resist arrest comes after sanctuary politicians have encouraged illegal aliens to evade arrest by hosting webinars instructing illegal aliens how to avoid being caught. Sanctuary politicians must stop encouraging this reckless behavior that endangers illegal aliens, our officers, and the public,” she added.

Van Hollen on Saturday posted photos on social media of the man in a hospital bed, describing him as an “asylum seeker” who was rear-ended by an ICE vehicle while driving to work Thursday in Baltimore.

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DHS says Ever Omar Alvarenga-Rios is an “illegal alien [who] resisted arrest [and] sent two ICE law enforcement officers to the hospital.” (Getty Images, File)

According to Van Hollen, the man suffered “significant injuries to his head, chest, back and hands.”

The Maryland Democrat also said the man was detained and claimed ICE was violating his rights by denying him access to attorneys.

In a statement to Fox News Digital, Van Hollen said that ICE under the Trump administration “continues to prevent Ever Alvarenga from meeting with attorneys while in the hospital — preventing them from receiving full updates on his health condition or discussing his case so that the full set of facts can come to light.”

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“They have also blocked him from signing a privacy release so my office can make further inquiries. No matter what the Trump Administration says, the Constitution applies to everyone in the United States,” Van Hollen added. “Mr. Alvarenga has a right to due process and full access to his legal representation. By standing in the way, it looks like the Administration has something to hide.” 

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House Democrats to hold California ‘shadow hearings’ on midterm election security

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House Democrats to hold California ‘shadow hearings’ on midterm election security

House Democrats will hold a pair of “shadow hearings” in California next week on the upcoming midterm elections — part of a broader party effort to defend state voting systems against mounting critiques and threats of intervention from the Trump administration.

Such hearings, similar to those recently held in Los Angeles on President Trump’s immigration raids, provide Democrats an opportunity to highlight issues their majority Republican counterparts won’t schedule for more formal hearings in Washington.

The hearings — scheduled for Los Angeles on Tuesday and San Francisco on Thursday — will feature testimony from voting and elections experts, and will be led by Rep. Joseph Morelle of New York, ranking Democrat on the House Administration Committee with oversight of elections, and Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco), the former House speaker.

Morelle, in a statement to The Times, said, “Democracy’s defenses are under attack” and must be defended.

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“We will not let President Trump and House Republicans’ efforts to take over our elections prevail. We’re going to use every tool in our toolbox and that includes working with pro-democracy allies in communities across the country,” he said. “I look forward to hearing about the work being done in California to protect democracy as we fight on the ground and in Congress.”

Pelosi, in her own statement to The Times, said protecting democracy “demands vigilance, transparency, and action,” and the shadow hearings “will bring together voices on the front lines of election security, voting rights, and accountability to ensure that every American’s vote is protected and every institution earns the public’s trust.”

“At a time of rampant threats to our democratic system, we must strengthen and defend the integrity of our elections to reaffirm that our government is of, by, and for the people,” she said.

Rep. Pete Aguilar (D-Redlands), chair of the Democratic Caucus, and other Democrats from California are also expected to attend. Republican members of Congress are not expected to be there.

The hearings will be the first in a while to be led — at least in part — by Pelosi, 86, who gave up her position in party leadership and does not currently hold any committee assignments. She announced in November that she will not seek reelection.

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Trump has alleged for years, without evidence, that U.S. elections are undermined and swayed by widespread voter fraud, and that such fraud cost him the 2020 election that he lost to Joe Biden. He and his personal attorneys have repeatedly argued as much in court, but always lost — in part because they could never produce any evidence to back their claims.

Since retaking the White House last year, Trump has continued pushing his baseless claims, and pushed his administration to attack voting systems — particularly in blue states where he has been unpopular.

In September, Trump loyalists in the Justice Department sued California and other states for their voter rolls and other sensitive voter information, but were pushed back by the courts.

In January, the FBI raided and seized 2020 election records from an elections office in Fulton County, Ga., that was the subject of Trump’s allegations of voter fraud in 2020.

In February, Trump said Republicans should “take over the voting in at least 15 places,” alleging that voting irregularities in what he called “crooked states” are hurting his party. “The Republicans ought to nationalize the voting.”

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This week, Trump issued an executive order purporting to give federal agencies control over ballot processing by the U.S. Postal Service.

Trump administration officials and allies have also raised concerns that they might send immigration agents to polling locations during the midterms, in part by refusing to rule out such a move in the wake of mass deployments of such agents into American cities to pursue Trump’s mass deportation agenda.

Trump has framed his efforts to end voting by mail — which he recently did himself — and increase voter identification requirements as “common sense” steps to combat fraud that most Americans agree with. A vast majority of California voters cast ballots by mail, including nearly 90% in last year’s special election on Proposition 50, the state’s mid-decade redistricting measure.

Democrats and many elections experts have rejected Trump’s election claims as baseless, defended state-run systems as safe and secure, and said his demands for stricter voter ID regulations would disenfranchise millions of U.S. citizen voters who lack the sort of documents he wants to mandate — including women who changed their name in marriage.

Voting experts say fraudulent votes, including by noncitizens, are rare, and that there is no evidence that fraud swings U.S. elections.

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States including California have joined voting rights organizations in suing to block Trump’s various attempts to intervene in state-run elections, including his order last week and a previous one purporting to place new federal requirements on voter identification and proof of citizenship.

California officials and others have repeatedly noted that federal law gives states the right to administer elections as they see fit, and promised to fight any attempts by the president or his administration to infringe on state election powers.

Local elections officials in California have also been preparing for potential election day interruptions from the Trump administration.

Scheduled to participate in the hearings were experts from the UCLA Voting Rights Project, Loyola Law School, the League of Women Voters of California, Common Cause California, and the Mexican American Legal Defense and Educational Fund, or MALDEF.

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FBI’s Patel delivers blunt warning to law enforcement attackers: ‘We’re going to put you down’

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FBI’s Patel delivers blunt warning to law enforcement attackers: ‘We’re going to put you down’

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FBI Director Kash Patel issued a direct warning to anyone who attacks law enforcement, vowing Saturday that those who “touch a cop” will be tracked down and arrested amid growing concerns over violence against officers.

The comments came while Patel was speaking on SiriusXM Patriot’s “Breitbart News Saturday,” discussing violence against federal officers.

“You have to back the blue,” Patel said. “I say the following to as many officers and Americans that I get in front of: If you touch a cop, we’re going to put you down. And that’s what we’re doing.”

He said the FBI is “going to back our partners,” noting that any criminal who assaults or impedes law enforcement is “going to face the full force of law enforcement.”

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FBI Director Kash Patel had a stern warning for anyone who wishes to harm law enforcement professionals. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images, File)

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“We’re not saying that you can’t go out there and peacefully protest,” Patel said. “We are simply saying, … you cannot interfere with [an officer in their] lawful execution of [their] lawful duty.

Since the start of the Trump administration’s immigration enforcement crackdown, the Department of Homeland Security has reported violence against federal agents spiked to a record high.

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The director added police around the country are “so empowered by the fact that we are backing the blue, that they know they have that backing.”

“They also know that if they are physically harmed, they’re just not going to have some perp get away with it,” he said. “We’re going to go find them and we’re going to arrest them.”

Patel’s stance on the issue has remained consistent throughout his time serving in the administration; In June, he posted a similar statement on social media.

Patel said his agency will always “back the blue.” (Stephanie Tacy/NurPhoto via Getty Images, File)

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“Hit a cop, you’re going to jail… doesn’t matter where you came from, how you got here, or what movement speaks to you,” Patel wrote in a June 7 X post. “If the local police force won’t back our men and women on the thin blue line, we @FBI will.”

The FBI did not immediately respond to Fox News Digital’s request for comment.

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