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Column: With just weeks left to strike a deal, it’s time to worry about the debt ceiling

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Column: With just weeks left to strike a deal, it’s time to worry about the debt ceiling

It’s time to start out worrying in regards to the debt ceiling.

The federal authorities is careening towards its borrowing credit score restrict, past which the Treasury gained’t be capable of pay all its payments.

The implications may very well be actually catastrophic — a world monetary crash — or merely damaging: a soar in rates of interest, a plummeting inventory market and a extra seemingly recession.

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Final week, Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen mentioned the “X Date,” the day the cash runs out, might arrive as quickly as June 1.

The issue, after all, is politics.

President Biden needs Congress to raise the debt ceiling with out vital circumstances, simply because it did thrice when President Trump was within the White Home. However the brand new Republican majority within the Home needs to pressure Biden to simply accept deep spending cuts and scrap a few of his favourite applications.

“They’re making an attempt to carry the debt hostage,” Biden complained Friday.

Republicans have used the H-word too.

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“It’s a hostage that’s value ransoming,” Senate Minority Chief Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) mentioned after a earlier debt disaster.

Each side insist they’re decided to keep away from a catastrophic default. However taking part in rooster over the debt ceiling is a bit just like the nuclear steadiness of terror: Neither facet needs a conflagration, however they might simply stumble into one.

Political polarization has made the issue more durable to unravel. Home Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Bakersfield) has his job because of the hard-line Freedom Caucus, which has lengthy opposed elevating the debt ceiling underneath any circumstance.

In principle, there are many methods to unravel this drawback — the debt ceiling has been raised seven instances within the final decade — however most would require each side to make painful concessions.

“The debt ceiling combat is sort of a kidney stone. You’re going to go it; it’s only a query of how painful it’s going to be,” mentioned Amy Walter, editor of the Cook dinner Political Report, quoting a veteran lobbyist.

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Final month, Home Republicans agreed on a gap bid: They provided to raise the debt ceiling for one 12 months if Democrats agree to chop nondefense spending (besides Social Safety and Medicare) by an estimated 22%, an awfully deep discount.

Biden has provided to barter over spending cuts, however says he gained’t cut price so long as the GOP holds the debt ceiling hostage. He has little selection, nevertheless, since Republicans management the Home and make up virtually half of the Senate.

Talks are scheduled to start Tuesday on the White Home. Neither facet expects a fast settlement.

Biden needs to protect the bold home applications he enacted over the last two years, when Democrats held majorities in each the Home and Senate. Republicans wish to scrap a lot of these applications, together with clear power, scholar mortgage aid and Medicaid enlargement. The GOP additionally needs to chop funding for the Inside Income Service, which might have the perverse impact of accelerating the federal deficit.

There are a number of potential options.

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Republicans might agree to boost the debt ceiling in alternate for severe funds negotiations. However the Freedom Caucus has already rejected that consequence — and if its members bolt, McCarthy might lose the speakership.

The 2 sides might break up the distinction: Elevate the debt restrict as soon as funds negotiations are underway, starting with an settlement on total spending ranges. However it could nonetheless be troublesome to achieve a deal that may go each the Democrat-led Senate and the Republican-led Home.

If talks with McCarthy bathroom down, Biden might attempt to strike a cope with McConnell. That’s what occurred in 2011, when then-Vice President Biden and the Senate Republican chief labored out a compromise.

However McConnell has mentioned McCarthy and the Home Republicans ought to take the lead.

Maybe almost definitely, the 2 sides might resolve they want extra time and raise the debt ceiling whereas negotiations proceed.

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With a presidential marketing campaign underway, these maneuvers are additionally about who shall be blamed if one thing goes improper.

Each side declare the general public is on their facet. They’re each half proper. Republicans level out that almost all voters don’t wish to improve the nationwide debt, and that’s true. However Democrats level out that almost all voters don’t just like the deep spending cuts the GOP has proposed — additionally true.

A Washington Put up-ABC Information ballot final week discovered a strikingly symmetrical response, with 78% of Democrats saying they’d blame Republicans if the federal government defaulted on its debt, and 78% of Republicans saying they’d blame Biden. Independents had been divided, however barely extra inclined in charge the GOP.

One lacking issue: Wall Avenue and the enterprise group haven’t weighed in. “They appear to imagine that it’s going to all get labored out,” a Democratic aide advised me.

That was true for previous debt ceiling battles — three in the course of the Trump administration and no fewer than six in the course of the Obama administration.

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However this can be a extra polarized period, with extra members of Congress — particularly on the best — who’ve gained energy by refusing to compromise.

Fixing the deadlock might rely on McCarthy’s knowledge and braveness, two commodities that haven’t been reliably measured. He has little expertise as a bipartisan deal maker.

The probabilities of missteps and miscalculations are greater.

That makes the probabilities of a catastrophic default or a dangerous near-default a lot higher than earlier than.

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Read Trump Lawyers’ Filing on Mar-a-Lago Raid and Attorney-Client Privilege in Documents Case

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Read Trump Lawyers’ Filing on Mar-a-Lago Raid and Attorney-Client Privilege in Documents Case

Case 9:23-cr-80101-AMC Document 566 Entered on FLSD Docket 05/21/2024 Page 19 of 28
aggressive position in the opening submission, they agreed to “seek[] only Per. 18’s fact work
product.” Id.
Following a March 9, 2023, hearing attended by the Special Counsel’s Office and counsel
for President Trump and Per. 18, Judge Howell granted, in part, and denied, in part, the motion.
Ex. 17. The court ordered Per. 18 to produce documents “reflecting his efforts to comply” with
the Trump Office Subpoena, and that “may have informed his knowledge” of the Trump
Organization Subpoena. Judge Howell also required Per. 18 to produce the May 2022
Recording and the June 2022 Recording, based on reasoning set forth in separate orders. Exs. 18,
19. On March 22, 2023, the D.C. Circuit denied motions by President Trump and Per. 18 to stay
Judge Howell’s rulings. See Order, In re Sealed Case, Nos. 23-3035, 23-3036 (D.C. Cir. Mar. 22,
2023).
7. The Compelled Testimony
On March 24, 2023, the Special Counsel’s Office required Per. 18 and to testify
before a grand jury in the District of Columbia—despite the lack of venue for any of the offenses
under consideration. The prosecutors questioned Per. 18 extensively regarding, inter alia, the
otherwise-privileged communications with President Trump, the May 2022 Recording, and the
June 2022 Recording.
B. Applicable Law
1. Attorney-Client Privilege And Work Product
“Traditionally, the attorney-client privilege, like the privilege extending to attorney work
product, is sacrosanct.” United States v. Stein, 2023 WL 2585033, at *2 (S.D. Fla. 2023) (cleaned
up). “The attorney-client privilege attaches, of course, to confidential communications between
an attorney and client for the purposes of securing legal advice or assistance.” Drummond Co.,
17

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Stefanik files ethics complaint against Trump trial judge, cites daughter's work for group promoting Dems

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Stefanik files ethics complaint against Trump trial judge, cites daughter's work for group promoting Dems

House Republican Conference Chair Elise Stefanik filed an ethics complaint against Judge Juan Merchan for an alleged conflict of interest pertaining to his daughter’s role at a firm known for representing Democratic politicians.

Merchan, an acting Supreme Court justice in New York, is presiding over the unprecedented criminal trial against former President Trump stemming from charges brought by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg.

Stefanik, R-N.Y., filed the complaint with the New York State Commission on Judiciary Conduct, warning that Trump, who pleaded not guilty to all 34 counts of falsifying business records, faces “a maximum of 136 years’ imprisonment” if convicted, and said not only are his “interests at stake,” but “the interests of all Americans are at stake.” 

She pointed to Merchan’s daughter, who serves as the president of Authentic Campaigns — a group that represents Democrat politicians and political action committees. 

NY V TRUMP: JUDGE TO CONSIDER DEFENSE MOTION TO DISMISS AFTER PROSECUTION RESTS CASE

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Former President Donald Trump attends the first day of his trial at Manhattan Criminal Court in New York City on April 15. Judge Juan Merchan poses for a picture in his chambers on March 14 in New York. (Angela Weiss/AFP via AP, POOL/AP)

Stefanik highlighted how her clients, like Rep. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., have fundraised off of Trump’s indictment and criminal trial. Trump himself has requested Merchan recuse himself from the trial due to his daughter’s work. Merchan said there was no reason for him to do so.

Stefanik added that she learned that the New York State Commission on Judiciary Conduct “privately cautioned him in July over his illegal political donations to Biden and Democrats in 2020.”

“This private caution has not deterred Judge Merchan’s judicial misconduct, as evidenced by this current complaint,” she wrote. “Judge Merchan appears driven by Democrat partisanship and financial gain for his daughter.”

Stefanik said it is “imperative that New Yorkers and all Americans have confidence that justice is being dispensed fairly in New York.”

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NY V TRUMP: JUDGE TO CONSIDER DEFENSE MOTION TO DISMISS AFTER PROSECUTION RESTS CASE

“This is especially true in politically sensitive cases where bias is most likely to rear its ugly head. Here, we are in the middle of a presidential election campaign. The circumstances are unprecedented: President Trump, a former president and the likely nominee of a major party for the presidency, is on trial,” Stefanik wrote. “These proceedings are under a microscope.”

On Tuesday, defense attorneys for Trump rested their case without calling former President Trump to the stand to testify. They called two witnesses — paralegal Daniel Sitko and a former legal adviser to Michael Cohen, Robert Costello — before resting their case. Prosecutors rested their case on Monday. 

Donald Trump watches with his attorney Todd Blanche as prosecutor Matthew Colangelo makes opening statements during Trump's criminal trial

Prosecutor Matthew Colangelo makes opening statements as former President Donald Trump watches with his attorney Todd Blanche before Justice Juan Merchan during Trump’s criminal trial on charges that he falsified business records to conceal money paid to silence porn star Stormy Daniels in 2016, in Manhattan state court in New York City, April 22, 2024, in this courtroom sketch. (REUTERS/Jane Rosenberg)

Merchan dismissed the jury until after Memorial Day. 

Stefanik argued that the judge’s “clear conflict of interest, based upon his adult daughter’s financial state in this unprecedented criminal trial, has badly damaged the court’s appearance of impartiality.”

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TRUMP SLAMS NY COURT SYSTEM, BOASTS HE’S GOING ‘TO WIN’ EMPIRE STATE

“Given Judge Merchan’s daughter’s clientele — and the vast sums of money that these individuals have raised and will continue to raise off of President Trump’s charges — Judge Merchan’s daughter stands to benefit the more legally imperiled President Trump is,” Stefanik said. “She is well within the sixth degree of relation to Judge Merchan; indeed, as his daughter, she falls within the first degree.”

She added: “A straightforward application of Section 100.3(e)(1)(D)(iii) requires recusal. As Judge Merchan has declined to do so, I request that you investigate his conduct and impose whatever discipline is required.”

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Upside-down flag controversy is the latest for Supreme Court Justice Alito

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Upside-down flag controversy is the latest for Supreme Court Justice Alito

Justice Samuel A. Alito Jr., the Supreme Court’s most predictable conservative of late, is again battling complaints that some of his actions demand that he recuse himself from pending cases.

Alito has responded that he is a victim of unjust criticism.

Here’s a look at some of the recent controversies.

What is the upside-down flag incident about?

Last week, the New York Times published a photo showing an American flag flying upside down in front of Alito’s house on Jan. 17, 2021.

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Neighbors reported seeing the flag flying for several days after supporters of outgoing President Trump had rioted at the U.S. Capitol.

For some, the upside-down flag became a symbol of the “Stop the Steal” movement.

How did Alito respond to complaints about the flag incident?

He blamed his wife, Martha-Ann, and his neighbors.

“I had no involvement whatsoever in the flying of the flag,” he told the New York Times in an email.

Speaking to a Fox News reporter, he said a neighbor had made vulgar comments to his wife.

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Alito suggested it was unfair to criticize him for the upside-down flag because it was his wife’s idea and she had been provoked by neighbors.

He did not explain whether he was troubled by this display of the flag or why he did not insist immediately that it must come down.

Some liberal groups have demanded that Alito recuse himself from proceedings involving Trump. But there is no hint Alito will step aside from deciding the pending case on whether Trump can be prosecuted for “official acts” he took as president.

Are these the first calls for Alito to recuse himself?

No. Last year, Alito gave an interview to the Wall Street Journal complaining about the treatment of Supreme Court justices.

“We’re being hammered daily. And nobody, practically nobody is defending us,” he told two opinion page writers of the Wall Street Journal, which regularly defends Alito and the conservative court. “We are being bombarded. … This type of concerted attack on the court and individual justices” is “new during my lifetime.”

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One of the writers, Washington attorney David B. Rivkin, had helped write an appeal petition asking the court to take up a major tax case and rule the Constitution forbids levies on undistributed corporate profits.

Two months later, when the court voted to hear the case, Senate Democrats and progressive groups called for Alito to step aside from ruling on the matter.

The justice fired off a sharp rejoinder. There is “no valid reason for my recusal in this case. When Mr. Rivkin participated in the interviews and co-authored the articles, he did so as a journalist, not an advocate. The case in which he is involved was never mentioned.”

The court is due to issue a decision in that case, Moore vs. United States, in the next few weeks.

How did Alito respond to complaints that some justices failed to disclose free trips?

Alito was upset last summer when he learned ProPublica was about to publish a story on a free fishing trip he took to Alaska in a private jet owned by hedge fund billionaire Paul Singer.

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The nonprofit investigative group had earlier revealed that Justice Clarence Thomas had regularly taken free and undisclosed vacations with Texas billionaire Harlan Crow.

Like Thomas, Alito did not mention the luxury trip in 2008 as a gift on the required judicial disclosure report.

When ProPublica sent him several questions about the upcoming story, Alito refused to comment through a court spokeswoman and then sought to debunk the “false charges” in the Journal before the story could appear.

What he described as false charges involved whether he knew or should have known that Singer’s hedge fund was involved in appeals before the high court.

Singer’s hedge fund, NML Capital, had pursued an aggressive strategy of buying Argentina’s bonds at a discount when the country defaulted in 2001 and then fought in the U.S. courts to be paid in full. This 14-year battle between what the Argentines called the “vultures” and Singer’s hedge fund was featured often in the legal and financial press, including the Wall Street Journal.

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Singer is a major Republican donor and gave Alito glowing introductions when he spoke to the Federalist Society and the Manhattan Institute.

ProPublica said Singer’s hedge fund was involved in 10 appeals that came before the court. In 2014, the justices agreed to decide a key issue and ruled 7 to 1 in favor of Singer’s hedge fund with Alito in the majority. Singer’s hedge fund was ultimately paid $2.4 billion for its bonds.

Writing in the Journal, Alito said he had no duty to recuse himself from ruling in the case because “I was not aware and had no good reason to be aware that Mr. Singer had an interest” in the cases involving Argentine bonds. When the court agreed to decide the case of “Republic of Argentina vs. NML Capital, Ltd., No. 12-842, Mr. Singer’s name did not appear” in the legal briefs, he said.

Yes, “he introduced me before I gave a speech — as have dozens of other people. … On no occasion have we discussed the activities of his businesses, and we have never talked about any case or issue before the Court,” Alito wrote.

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