Politics
Column: The political strategy behind Donald Trump's increasingly dark and disturbing rhetoric
Last weekend, Donald Trump delivered what even he admitted was a “dark” speech.
Beyond the usual nonsense about America ceasing to exist if he loses, he called immigrants here illegally “vile animals” and “monsters” who “will walk into your kitchen, they’ll cut your throat.” The supposed enemy of censorship said that the media, including Fox News, shouldn’t “be allowed” to cover Kamala Harris’ speech on immigration. He called Harris “mentally disabled.” And he mused that if police were allowed an hour of “real rough, nasty,” unrestrained violence against shoplifters, the problem would go away.
As strange as it sounds, Trump’s increasingly repugnant rhetoric is an effort to win over undecided voters.
This might seem like an odd thing to say given that pundits (including me) have said the presidential race is extremely close and that few undecided voters remain — and given that such voters are usually thought of as moderates who dislike extremist politics. That’s true. But there’s a difference between people who have decided to vote but aren’t sure for whom, and those who know which candidate they support but haven’t decided whether to vote at all.
It’s like the difference between a film buff who will definitely go to the movies this weekend but isn’t sure what to see, and someone who is interested in one movie but isn’t sure it’s worth the effort to go to the theater. Why not just wait for it to show up on Netflix?
It turns out that there are a lot more wait-for-Netflix voters than indecisive-film-buff voters.
Ron Brownstein wrote an illuminating exploration of all this for the Atlantic. Among campaign professionals, people who have to be convinced that they should back a specific candidate are called “persuadable voters.” Those who have to be motivated to vote at all are called “irregular voters.”
Trump’s apocalyptic rhetoric probably turns off most persuadable voters. But it may be just the ticket to move a subgroup of irregular voters.
Plenty of decent, knowledgeable people decline to vote regularly for various reasons, but most of the irregulars — especially those whom Trump and his boosters are hoping to motivate — are low-information voters. Most of what they hear about politics comes from social media “influencers” such as Tucker Carlson and Candace Owens.
If you’re not normally inclined to vote, policy differences aren’t going to motivate you to do so. But being told America’s very existence depends on it might.
That’s precisely what Elon Musk, the owner of X (formerly Twitter) and prominent Trump supporter, told his 200 million followers on Saturday. “Very few Americans realize that, if Trump is NOT elected, this will be the last election,” Musk wrote. “Far from being a threat to democracy, he is the only way to save it!”
Now, I think this is dangerous nonsense. But if you didn’t know that, it would be a pretty compelling reason to vote.
As Brownstein notes, the media are fairly obsessed with voters who swing from one party to another. We’ve seen countless focus groups and interviews with such people. But they’re a tiny fraction of potential voters compared with those who don’t normally vote at all.
Even in 2020, the highest-turnout national election in more than a century, a third of eligible voters — about 80 million people — stayed home. All else being equal, if Trump or Harris could disproportionately turn out even a tenth of such people, it would be enough for a landslide.
I don’t have a lot of respect or admiration for the sort of low-information voters who have to be duped into voting with apocalyptic and demonizing bilge. But I have greater contempt for the voters and especially the leaders who condone the strategy even though they know better. Let’s call them the “normies.”
Trump’s normie defenders in elected office and the media dismiss his irresponsible rhetoric and conspiracy theories as an unfortunate distraction. The closest they get to criticizing him for it is to say he should “stick to the issues.” But many contort themselves into suggesting that Trump has valid points.
As a result, Trump can take normie voters and politicians for granted because they’re cheap dates who will support him no matter what. This empowers him to expand his coalition to people motivated by his celebrations of bigotry, crudeness and violence.
The normies make up the majority of the electorate because they vote reliably. And because Trump can rely on so many of them to vote for him no matter what he says, it’s the normies who could make Trump’s grotesquerie a winning strategy.
Politics
Blackface photo shakes up toss-up House district in NY
A close House race in New York was rocked by an October surprise when photos surfaced of the incumbent Republican congressman in blackface as part of a Halloween costume years ago.
Rep. Michael Lawler, R-N.Y., who is white, is pictured dressed like pop sensation Michael Jackson, complete with bronzer to darken his face in an October 2006 photo reported by the New York Times. Lawler does not dispute the photo’s authenticity and has issued an apology to anyone who has taken offense, though he said it was not his intention to dress in blackface.
“As has been well-documented – most recently by the Daily Beast – I was a so-called ‘Super Fan’ of Michael Jackson, so much so that I was mentioned by name in his biography for my outspoken support of him and the Jackson Family. I loved Michael’s music, was awed by him as a performer, and by his impact on pop culture,” Lawler said in a statement. “One of my greatest memories is attending his concert at Madison Square Garden before his untimely death.
“When attempting to imitate Michael’s legendary dance moves at a college Halloween party eighteen years ago, the ugly practice of black face was the furthest thing from my mind. Let me be clear, this is not that. Rather, my costume was intended as the sincerest form of flattery, a genuine homage to one of my childhood idols since I was a little kid trying to moonwalk through my mom’s kitchen.
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“I am a student of history and for anyone who takes offense to the photo, I am sorry. All you can do is live and learn, and I appreciate everyone’s grace along the way,” he said.
The 38-year-old Lawler, a moderate first-term lawmaker from the Hudson Valley, is seen as a rising star in the GOP conference who is running for re-election in a suburban swing district. His Democratic opponent in New York’s 17th Congressional District is former Rep. Mondaire Jones, a Black man. The Jones campaign did not respond to a request for comment.
The race is one of 22 toss-up contests that may well determine which party controls the House of Representatives next year, according to Fox News’ Power Rankings.
Lawler is not the first politician to be wrapped up in recent controversy over a costume that resembled blackface. Former Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam, a Democrat, faced calls to resign after a photo from his medical school yearbook surfaced which pictured men in Ku Klux Klan robes and blackface. Northam denied he was in the photo but admitted he once used shoe polish to darken his face for a dance contest in the 1980s in which he too dressed like Jackson.
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Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau also faced controversy in 2019 when photos surfaced of him wearing blackface in 2001. The prime minister said in an interview after the fact that he could not give a definitive number on how many times he had worn blackface.
Lawler was photographed in his Jackson costume in New York City when he was a sophomore at Manhattan College, now Manhattan University, a Catholic school in the Bronx where only three percent of the student population is Black, according to the New York Times.
Lawler, who was class valedictorian in 2009, was well-known for his love of Michael Jackson, the paper reported.
When Lawler was a high school senior in 2005, he flew from New York to California to attend parts Jackson’s criminal trial. The musician had faced allegations of molesting a 13-year-old boy at his Neverland Ranch, though Jackson was eventually acquitted.
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Jackson biographer J. Randy Taraborrelli recounted in his book how he helped get Lawler into the courtroom, according to the Daily Beast. Taraborrelli wrote in “Michael Jackson: The Magic, The Madness, The Whole Story” that the teen had been “so disgusted” by testimony against Jackson “that he couldn’t help but mutter something derogatory under his breath.”
In Taraborrelli’s account, Lawler was overheard by court officials and “tossed right out of the courtroom.”
The photos in question were posted to Facebook and depict Lawler dressed in a jacket reminiscent of the one Jackson wore in the “Thriller” music video.
The New York Times cited a person familiar with the costume who said that Lawler had used bronzer borrowed from female classmates to darken his skin.
Lawler’s 2022 victory was one of several Republican victories in crucial New York districts, despite the state’s status as reliably blue overall. The 17th includes stretches through four suburban counties outside of New York City: Dutchess, Putnam, Rockland and Westchester.
Fox News Digital’s Emma Colton and Emily Robertson contributed to this report.
Politics
Opinion: Why President Biden hasn't been able to end Israel's nearly year-old war in Gaza
As the world prepares to mark the first anniversary of Hamas’ Oct. 7 terrorist attack and the ensuing war is set to drag into a second year with intense fighting on another front, many Americans are wondering why President Biden has been unable to end the conflict.
Contrary to plenty of commentary, it certainly has not been for lack of trying.
Since the war broke out, Biden has visited Israel and had a host of conversations with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken has made at least 10 trips to Israel. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III has also made multiple visits to the country since Oct. 7 and had seemingly countless talks with his counterpart, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. This is all on top of lower-ranking U.S. officials’ continuous efforts to engage with Israel.
And yet for all the time and effort the Biden administration has expended, it has failed to broker a cease-fire between Israel and the militant group Hamas. Meanwhile, the threat of a wider war loomed again this week as Iran launched a missile attack on Israel in retaliation for the escalation of its conflict with the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The Biden administration is hardly alone in its struggle to find diplomatic common ground in the Middle East. Ever since the Oslo accords some three decades ago, a series of American administrations have tried and failed to broker peace between Israelis and Palestinians.
At the same time, although Americans may want wars to be short and relatively restrained, they rarely are. The unfortunate battlefield reality is that any war against a group such as Hamas — with its estimated 30,000 fighters and hundreds of miles of tunnels embedded in one of the most densely populated places on Earth — was going to be a long, bloody slog. There is very little that anyone — even an American president — can do to change that.
Biden’s critics counter that the administration could put more pressure on Netanyahu to force a cease-fire. They note that Israel receives billions of dollars’ worth of American military aid and depends on American diplomatic cover. They say that provides sufficient leverage to force Netanyahu’s hand. But does it?
In practice, the United States often has less influence over its allies than one might think. Historically, economic sanctions have a poor track record of forcing major concessions, particularly when existential security matters are at stake — which, in Israel’s case, they are. Indeed, threats to sanction the hard-right elements of Netanyahu’s coalition have yet to produce any sort of moderation. At the same time, the International Criminal Court’s announcement that it would seek arrest warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant produced what few other policies could: It united Israel’s fractured political spectrum around the current government.
Even if U.S. pressure were effective enough to motivate the Netanyahu government to try to end the war, it still might not succeed. Ending the war, after all, would require the cooperation of both Israel and Hamas — and more specifically Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, who shows no signs of budging.
Sinwar could unilaterally declare a cease-fire, release all the remaining Israeli hostages and deny Israel one of its core justifications for the war. But Hamas seems intent on executing hostages and otherwise doubling down on the hostilities. Presumably, despite all the devastation and suffering in Gaza, Sinwar on some level still believes that he is winning.
Even if America had successfully secured a bilateral cease-fire, it would be unlikely to produce a lasting peace. Indeed, all the structural and political reasons that have prevented peace for decades remain.
Because Israel would have to free hundreds of militants serving life sentences for murder in exchange for the release of remaining hostages, Hamas’ ranks would swell during a cease-fire. Eventually the battered organization would rebuild and strike again. Moreover, regional spoilers — most notably Iran — view a continuing proxy conflict with Israel as being in their strategic interest.
A year in, the Biden administration’s diplomatic offensive has yielded some modest results. The rate of casualties — even as reported by Gaza’s Hamas-controlled Health Ministry — has slowed. Aid to Gaza’s civilians, albeit insufficient, is flowing. More than three-fifths of the hostages taken on Oct. 7 have either been freed or recovered, although 97 have not. And, most important, a full-blown, regional Middle East war — widely feared at several junctures over the last year — has been averted, at least for the moment.
All that is admittedly cold comfort to the Palestinians caught in the crossfire, the Israeli hostages who remain in Gaza and the growing displaced populations of southern Lebanon and northern Israel.
In the wake of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, Americans have become far more aware of the bounds of what military power can achieve. But other tools of national power, including diplomacy, have their limits too. Outside mediators can’t end this war, particularly if the combatants themselves don’t want to stop fighting.
Raphael S. Cohen is the director of the strategy and doctrine program at Rand Project Air Force and of the national security program at the Pardee Rand Graduate School.
Politics
Trump to headline NRA event in pivotal swing state two weeks before Election Day
Former President Trump will headline the National Rifle Association’s (NRA) Defend the 2nd event in Savannah, Georgia, Oct. 22, the organization announced Friday morning.
“This election is a pivotal one for America’s gun owners. Kamala Harris and her far-left allies have big plans to erode Second Amendment protections,” NRA Vice President and CEO Doug Hamlin said in a statement.
“Donald J. Trump has proven himself a fighter for Americans’ right to keep and bear arms. We are excited to have him speak at our Defend the 2nd event and to support his return to the White House in January.”
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Earlier this year, the NRA endorsed Trump in his presidential campaign. Trump also spoke at the NRA’s convention in May.
The NRA has been ramping up its attacks on certain Democratic candidates who are softer on gun owners’ rights. Ohio is the second state the NRA Political Victory Fund has targeted this election cycle. Last month, the gun group launched a major radio campaign against vulnerable Democratic Sen. Jon Tester of Montana.
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“When it comes to preserving and strengthening our constitutional rights in America, the stakes could not be higher in this presidential election,” the NRA’s news release said. “No matter your reason for owning a firearm — whether for hunting, self-defense or just as an exercise of your constitutional right — law-abiding gun owners have a clear choice this fall if they hope to preserve their Second Amendment rights.”
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