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Column: Does freedom itself depend on the outcome of this election? Donald Trump's probably does

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Column: Does freedom itself depend on the outcome of this election? Donald Trump's probably does

Donald Trump is at a pivotal point in his personal history. For him, the upshot of the election will be either a series of criminal prosecutions likely to result in incarceration or a few legal nuisances that he can largely or completely dismiss.

A victory for Kamala Harris next week would leave Trump with no new cards to play against the juggernaut of criminal cases already pending against him. We could expect turnover at the highest ranks of the Department of Justice, up to and including Atty. Gen. Merrick Garland. But the new leadership would be nearly certain to retain special counsel Jack Smith, who has earned high marks for his aggressive pursuit of Trump’s alleged federal crimes.

That would allow Smith to continue to pursue the two prosecutions he has brought against the former president: one for his role in trying to overturn the 2020 election, culminating with the Jan. 6, 2021, assault on the Capitol; the other for purloining government documents and obstructing the authorities’ efforts to recover them from his Florida estate, Mar-a-Lago.

As a matter of sheer legal merit, the latter is the strongest of all the criminal cases against Trump. The evidence is overwhelming that Trump absconded with documents he had no right to possess as an ex-president and then engaged in a nearly two-year stonewalling of the federal government’s entirely legitimate efforts to get them back. His alleged obstruction included lying about the extent of his compliance with a federal subpoena and ordering his co-conspirators to hide documents that he knew the government wanted. And for all we know, his sloppy, selfish handling of sensitive information about national security may have put U.S. assets at grave risk.

What makes the case especially powerful is that anyone who engaged in similar conduct would undoubtedly face serious charges; indeed, the Justice Department routinely prosecutes people for mishandling a small fraction of the material Trump misappropriated. So no one can legitimately argue that he was singled out for political purposes or that the case pushes the legal envelope in any way.

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Trump has nevertheless managed to elude justice in the case because of a series of partisan rulings by U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon, who ultimately went so far as to order the case dismissed on the ground that Smith’s appointment lacked proper congressional authority. That ruling is now before the 11th Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals, which is likely to reverse it and could order Cannon’s recusal. And while a determined district court judge can find many ways to make charges disappear, Cannon would face even more scrutiny and have less recourse if her patron loses his bid to return to the White House.

The case, in short, should proceed to a conviction. And the likely sentence under federal guidelines (which the courts may depart from) looks to be almost 20 years.

If the documents case is the most open and shut against Trump, the Jan. 6 case is the most important in that it goes to the core of his iniquity as president. But Trump got another big lucky break here, not from the district court — Tanya Chutkan is a no-nonsense federal judge who has moved the case briskly — but from the U.S. Supreme Court. The conservative justices threw a monkey wrench into the case with their opinion granting broad presidential immunity from prosecution, working through the implications of which will take at least another year.

Still, when the dust settles, the evidence is more than strong enough to lead to conviction on the core charges that are likely to remain. And judging by the sentences imposed on the most culpable of the Jan. 6 ground soldiers, Trump would be looking at years in prison in this case too.

That leaves the two state cases against the former president. In New York, Trump is to be sentenced in less than a month for his conviction on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records to cover up hush money payments to the adult film actor Stormy Daniels. And in Georgia, a racketeering case stemming from the Jan. 6 plot is in a sort of deep freeze as the state courts try to sort out whether Fulton County Dist. Atty. Fani Willis and her office need to be recused for ethical reasons.

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The future of the Georgia case is uncertain in any scenario. But if Trump loses the election, he will face sentencing in Manhattan. He is likely to serve little if any time in custody as a result, but he can probably count on a long term of probation, which itself entails a significant deprivation of liberty.

Finally, the possibility remains that Trump will surface as a defendant in other state cases involving conspiracies to overturn the election by appointing false electors. His involvement in those schemes is a matter of record.

Add all that together, and the bottom line is that Trump will be forced to endure one criminal trial after another and the possibility of prison sentences interrupted only for proceedings in other cases.

But what if Trump emerges as the victor next week? The difference for him alone would be astonishing. Regaining the White House would amount to a free pass for a presidency and post-presidency that have been nothing short of a crime spree.

First and foremost, as head of the executive branch, Trump could and would simply order the Department of Justice to drop the two ongoing federal cases. Indeed, Trump announced last week that he would fire the special counsel “within two seconds” of taking office and pointed to the Supreme Court’s immunity decision as ensuring his power to do so. That would bring all of Smith’s work to a grinding and permanent halt.

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As for New York, even as president, Trump would have no official authority to order Manhattan Dist. Atty. Alvin Bragg to stand down. But he would probably argue in federal court that a state can’t pursue a criminal case against — much less incarcerate — a sitting president. And it’s likely that the Supreme Court would and should find such a principle implicit in the Constitution: The federal government could hardly function if the states had that power.

In that case, any sentence in New York, including a probationary one, would be served only after Trump is out of office, at which point this may be a very different country. For starters, Trump has signaled his intent to bring federal charges against Bragg.

Finally, a Trump presidency probably forecloses any possibility of his being included in any additional state prosecutions. Indeed, it might spell the end of those prosecutions altogether.

Trump’s entire campaign to regain the presidency can be seen as an outlandish gamble on evading accountability for a series of grave and manifest crimes. Should he win, he will take it as a popular verdict that he is above the law, notwithstanding anything in the Constitution. And as a practical matter, he will be right.

Harry Litman is the host of the “Talking Feds” podcast and the “Talking San Diego” speaker series. @harrylitman

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Video: Trump Says ‘Only Time Will Tell’ How Long U.S. Controls Venezuela

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Video: Trump Says ‘Only Time Will Tell’ How Long U.S. Controls Venezuela

new video loaded: Trump Says ‘Only Time Will Tell’ How Long U.S. Controls Venezuela

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Trump Says ‘Only Time Will Tell’ How Long U.S. Controls Venezuela

President Trump did not say exactly how long the the United states would control Venezuela, but said that it could last years.

“How Long do you think you’ll be running Venezuela?” “Only time will tell. Like three months. six months, a year, longer?” “I would say much longer than that.” “Much longer, and, and —” “We have to rebuild. You have to rebuild the country, and we will rebuild it in a very profitable way. We’re going to be using oil, and we’re going to be taking oil. We’re getting oil prices down, and we’re going to be giving money to Venezuela, which they desperately need. I would love to go, yeah. I think at some point, it will be safe.” “What would trigger a decision to send ground troops into Venezuela?” “I wouldn’t want to tell you that because I can’t, I can’t give up information like that to a reporter. As good as you may be, I just can’t talk about that.” “Would you do it if you couldn’t get at the oil? Would you do it —” “If they’re treating us with great respect. As you know, we’re getting along very well with the administration that is there right now.” “Have you spoken to Delcy Rodríguez?” “I don’t want to comment on that, but Marco speaks to her all the time.”

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President Trump did not say exactly how long the the United states would control Venezuela, but said that it could last years.

January 8, 2026

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Trump calls for $1.5T defense budget to build ‘dream military’

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Trump calls for .5T defense budget to build ‘dream military’

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President Donald Trump called for defense spending to be raised to $1.5 trillion, a 50% increase over this year’s budget. 

“After long and difficult negotiations with Senators, Congressmen, Secretaries, and other Political Representatives, I have determined that, for the Good of our Country, especially in these very troubled and dangerous times, our Military Budget for the year 2027 should not be $1 Trillion Dollars, but rather $1.5 Trillion Dollars,” Trump wrote on Truth Social on Thursday evening. 

“This will allow us to build the “Dream Military” that we have long been entitled to and, more importantly, that will keep us SAFE and SECURE, regardless of foe.” 

The president said he came up with the number after tariff revenues created a surplus of cash. He claimed the levies were bringing in enough money to pay for both a major boost to the defense budget “easily,” pay down the national debt, which is over $38 trillion, and offer “a substantial dividend to moderate income patriots.”

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President Donald Trump called for defense spending to be raised to $1.5 trillion, a 50% increase over this year’s record budget.  (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)

The boost likely reflects efforts to fund Trump’s ambitious military plans, from the Golden Dome homeland missile defense shield to a new ‘Trump class’ of battleships.

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget found that the increased budget would cost about $5 trillion from 2027 to 2035, or $5.7 trillion with interest. Tariff revenues, the group found, would cover about half the cost – $2.5 trillion or $3 trillion with interest. 

The Supreme Court is expected to rule in a major case Friday that will determine the legality of Trump’s sweeping tariff strategy.

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This year the defense budget is expected to breach $1 trillion for the first time thanks to a $150 billion reconciliation bill Congress passed to boost the expected $900 billion defense spending legislation for fiscal year 2026. Congress has yet to pass a full-year defense budget for 2026.

Some Republicans have long called for a major increase to defense spending to bring the topline total to 5% of GDP, as the $1.5 trillion budget would do, up from the current 3.5%.

The boost likely reflects efforts to fund Trump’s ambitious military plans, from the Golden Dome homeland missile defense shield to a new ‘Trump class’ of battleships. (Lockheed Martin via Reuters)

Trump has ramped up pressure on Europe to increase its national security spending to 5% of GDP – 3.5% on core military requirements and 1.5% on defense-related areas like cybersecurity and critical infrastructure.

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Trump’s budget announcement came hours after defense stocks took a dip when he condemned the performance rates of major defense contractors. In a separate Truth Social post he announced he would not allow defense firms to buy back their own stocks, offer large salaries to executives or issue dividends to shareholders. 

“Executive Pay Packages in the Defense Industry are exorbitant and unjustifiable given how slowly these Companies are delivering vital Equipment to our Military, and our Allies,” he said. 

“​Defense Companies are not producing our Great Military Equipment rapidly enough and, once produced, not maintaining it properly or quickly.”

U.S. Army soldiers stand near an armored military vehicle on the outskirts of Rumaylan in Syria’s northeastern Hasakeh province, bordering Turkey, on March 27, 2023.  (Delil Souleiman/AFP via Getty Images)

He said that executives would not be allowed to make above $5 million until they build new production plants.

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Stock buybacks, dividends and executive compensation are generally governed by securities law, state corporate law and private contracts, and cannot be broadly restricted without congressional action.

An executive order the White House released Wednesday frames the restrictions as conditions on future defense contracts, rather than a blanket prohibition. The order directs the secretary of war to ensure that new contracts include provisions barring stock buybacks and corporate distributions during periods of underperformance, non-compliance or inadequate production, as determined by the Pentagon.

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Newsom moves to reshape who runs California’s schools under budget plan

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Newsom moves to reshape who runs California’s schools under budget plan

Gov. Gavin Newsom on Thursday unveiled a sweeping proposal to overhaul how California’s education system is governed, calling for structural changes that he said would shift oversight of the Department of Education and redefine the role of the state’s elected schools chief.

The proposal, which is part of Newsom’s state budget plan that will be released Friday, would unify the policymaking State Board of Education with the department, which is responsible for carrying out those policies. The governor said the change would better align education efforts from early childhood through college.

“California can no longer postpone reforms that have been recommended regularly for a century,” Newsom said in a statement. “These critical reforms will bring greater accountability, clarity, and coherence to how we serve our students and schools.”

Few details were provided about how the role of the state superintendent of public instruction would change, beyond a greater focus on fostering coordination and aligning education policy.

The changes would require approval from state lawmakers, who will be in the state Capitol on Thursday for Newsom’s last State of the State speech in his final year as governor.

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The proposal would implement recommendations from a 2002 report by the state Legislature, titled “California’s Master Plan for Education,” which described the state’s K-12 governance as fragmented and “with overlapping roles that sometimes operate in conflict with one another, to the detriment of the educational services offered to students.” Newsom’s office said similar concerns have been raised repeatedly since 1920 and were echoed again in a December 2025 report by research center Policy Analysis for California Education.

“The sobering reality of California’s education system is that too few schools can now provide the conditions in which the State can fairly ask students to learn to the highest standards, let alone prepare themselves to meet their future learning needs,” the Legislature’s 2002 report stated. Those most harmed are often low-income students and students of color, the report added.

“California’s education governance system is complex and too often creates challenges for school leaders,” Edgar Zazueta, executive director of the Assn. of California School Administrators, said in a statement provided by Newsom’s office. “As responsibilities and demands on schools continue to increase, educators need governance systems that are designed to better support positive student outcomes.”

The current budget allocated $137.6 billion for education from transitional kindergarten through the 12th grade — the highest per-pupil funding level in state history — and Newsom’s office said his proposal is intended to ensure those investments translate into more consistent support and improved outcomes statewide.

“For decades the fragmented and inefficient structure overseeing our public education system has hindered our students’ ability to succeed and thrive,” Ted Lempert, president of advocacy group Children Now, said in a statement provided by the governor’s office. “Major reform is essential, and we’re thrilled that the Governor is tackling this issue to improve our kids’ education.”

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