Politics
Column: Cool weather, hot races forecast for November
Today we discuss cliff-hangers, the Founding Fathers and legerdemain.
Let’s get to it. Who’s going to win the presidential race?
I haven’t a clue.
So what good are you?
That’s a question readers ask all the time.
What can you say about the race?
The contest will come down to seven or so highly competitive states and, maybe, the one electoral vote in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, which is anchored in the Omaha-Council Bluffs metropolitan area.
The key states are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. In short, the battlegrounds that determined the outcome of the 2020 election.
Why the same states over and over? Why not, say, California?
Pull up your chair for a quick civics refresher.
The presidential race is determined not by the winner of the popular vote but which candidate takes a majority — 270 votes — in the electoral college. Some might recollect that two of our last four presidents — George W. Bush and Donald Trump — claimed the White House despite losing the popular vote.
That’s outrageous!
Can’t help you there. Blame the country’s founders. They wrote the rule book.
Go on.
Most states, including the biggies like California, Texas, Florida and New York, are locked into their partisan preferences. (California and New York are solidly Democratic while Texas and Florida — once the nation’s premier swing state — lean Republican.)
Given those inclinations, Kamala Harris can pretty much bank on 226 electoral votes. Trump can count on 219. That leaves 93 up for grabs in those seven states.
What was that about Omaha?
Just about every state awards their electoral votes on a winner-take-all basis. Nebraska is one of two — Maine being the other — that has a hybrid system awarding some electoral votes to the winner of the statewide vote and others based on the winner of each congressional district.
There’s a not-inconceivable scenario in which Harris finishes with 269 electoral votes and needs the one vote from Nebraska to avoid a tie in the electoral college, which would send the election to the House to decide. In that case, Trump would almost certainly prevail, as each state’s delegation would have one vote and Republicans are expected to control more delegations than Democrats.
Wasn’t there a recent effort to boost Trump by changing the law in Nebraska?
Yes there was and it failed, thanks to a single upstanding Republican state senator from Omaha, Mike McDonnell, who refused to go along.
Which was a good thing.
Why is that?
If you thought 2020 was fraught — with all the wrangling over pandemic-induced changes to the balloting process — or consider the 2000 contest to have been divisive — with a partisan Supreme Court vote delivering the White House to George W. Bush after Florida effectively ended in a tie vote — imagine if this election was decided by some last-minute Republican sleight of hand.
What about control of Congress?
That also appears up for grabs, though Republicans have a distinct advantage in the fight for the Senate.
Because of that French word you used?
Legerdemain? No. Because of mathematics.
There are 34 Senate races across the country. Democrats are defending 23 seats, Republicans 11. Worse for Democrats, several of the seats they’re trying to hang onto are in states Trump carried in 2020 — several of them rather handily.
Right now, Democrats hold a bare Senate 51-49 majority, which includes four independents who caucus with them. The party has ceded West Virginia, where one of those independents, Joe Manchin III, is retiring and where Trump won by nearly 40 percentage points in 2020. That puts the Senate at 50-50. Democrats could keep control if they win the White House, since the vice president casts the tie-breaking vote. But that would require the party to win every one of the seats now being fiercely contested.
And how’s that going for Democrats?
Not bad — but maybe not good enough.
At the moment, Democrats appear to be holding their own in Arizona, Nevada and Pennsylvania. But Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin look to be much closer. And Democrat Jon Tester appears to be in grave danger in Montana, a state Trump carried four years ago by 16 percentage points. Tester has a history of winning tough races, but this one is his toughest yet.
So it’s all gravy for Republicans?
Pretty much.
Democrats would love to flip GOP-held seats in Texas and Florida and help take out Sen. Deb Fischer in Nebraska, where independent Dan Osborn is making a strong run.
But all three states are virtually certain to back Trump in November and it’s getting increasingly difficult for Senate candidates to swim against the partisan tide. In 2016, for the first time since the direct election of U.S. senators began a century earlier, every Senate race went the same way as the presidential contest; if Trump won a state, the seat went Republican. If Hillary Clinton prevailed, the seat went Democratic.
That pattern held in 2020 with the exception of Maine, where Joe Biden prevailed and Republican Susan Collins was reelected to her fifth term.
What about control of the House?
That’s also too close to call.
Republicans currently hold a razor-wafer-tissue-thin (your choice!) majority of just four seats. All 435 seats are on November’s ballot, but the fight for the majority will come down to roughly two dozen contests.
Several of those are in California, which has become one of the country’s prime congressional battlegrounds after voters in 2008 took the power to draw district lines away from self-interested lawmakers. Democrats hope to flip Republican-held seats in Orange County, the Central Valley, the L.A. suburbs and Palm Springs. They’re also on the offense in New York, where the GOP made significant gains in the 2022 midterm election.
But Republicans aren’t just hunkered down trying to preserve their bare majority. GOP targets include a handful of Democratic-held seats in California as well as incumbents in Colorado, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania and elsewhere.
What do the polls say?
Ignore ‘em. Even the best are nothing more than an educated guess. No one knows what’s going to happen.
Honest.
Instead of obsessing over the latest higgledy-piggledy, do something useful. If you’re undecided, do some research. If you’re committed to a candidate, and have the time and inclination, volunteer to knock on doors or make phone calls.
Above all, be sure to vote and do so in time to make certain your ballot is counted.
Politics
Video: Jan. 6 Rioter Hired by Pentagon
new video loaded: Jan. 6 Rioter Hired by Pentagon
transcript
transcript
Jan. 6 Rioter Hired by Pentagon
Elias Irizarry, who pleaded guilty to climbing through a broken window at the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, now works for an office responsible for uncovering and defending against terrorism plots at the Pentagon.
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“Full pardon or commutation?” “Full pardon.”
By Alisa Shodiyev Kaff
June 4, 2026
Politics
Democrats split over Tlaib’s Lebanon measure as Republicans seize on Hezbollah omission
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Democrats splintered over a resolution seeking to block the U.S. from assisting Israel’s war against Hezbollah, an Iranian-backed terrorist group, on Thursday.
The measure, offered by progressive Rep. Rashida Tlaib, D-Mich., would require President Donald Trump to withdraw U.S. forces from Lebanon. For months, Israel and Hezbollah, a U.S.-designated terrorist group and Iranian proxy, have been at war in southern Lebanon, but the United States has not joined the conflict.
A bipartisan coalition of lawmakers, including House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., rejected the measure. Critics argued the resolution could aid Hezbollah and potentially hamstring U.S. military operations in the country.
Tlaib’s resolution failed 92-324, with more than half of House Democrats joining nearly all Republicans to vote it down.
The Lebanon war powers resolution divided Democrats, with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., joining Republicans in rejecting the measure. (Aaron Schwartz/Bloomberg)
REP RASHIDA TLAIB MOVES TO BLOCK US OPERATIONS IN LEBANON BUT IGNORES HEZBOLLAH
Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., an Israel critic, was the lone Republican to support Tlaib’s measure. Meanwhile, Reps. Derek Tran, D-Calif., and Betty McCollum, D-Minn., voted present.
House Democratic leaders said shortly before the vote they would oppose Tlaib’s resolution and work with the progressive lawmaker on a narrower measure exempting some U.S. military operations in the country. Their statement also denounced Hezbollah as a “violent terrorist organization” and a “sworn enemy of the United States.”
Tlaib, who has accused Israel of committing “ethnic cleansing” in Lebanon, did not mention Hezbollah in her resolution. She and other proponents of the measure also avoided discussing the Iranian proxy force during heated floor debate over the measure.
Republicans highlighted the omission and accused the legislation’s supporters of serving as “proxies for Hezbollah.”
“Apparently they don’t want to see Israel killing Hezbollah, even though it’s Hezbollah that is killing Israeli children, Israeli adults, Israeli elders,” House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Brian Mast, R-Fla., said Wednesday, referring to his Democratic colleagues.
Tlaib asserted that her resolution would only affect U.S. forces actively engaged in hostilities. Republicans, however, disputed that claim and suggested it would hurt U.S. efforts to counter Hezbollah.
“It doesn’t say anything about [whether] you can keep the Marines that are in the embassy,” Mast said, referring to the U.S. embassy in Beirut. “That’s a pretty big oversight. It doesn’t say anything about whether we can keep United States armed forces that are training missions with the LAF [Lebanese Armed Forces]. Again, pretty big oversight.”
Rep. Rashida Tlaib, a Democrat from Michigan, attempted to bar U.S. forces from joining Israel’s war in Lebanon. (Tierney L. Cross/Bloomberg)
RASHIDA TLAIB HIT WITH HOUSE CENSURE THREAT, ACCUSED OF ‘CELEBRATING TERRORISM’ IN PRO-PALESTINIAN SPEECH
The debate turned personal when Rep. Max Miller, R-Ohio, a member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, linked Tlaib to Hezbollah.
“Hezbollah is a terrorist organization … and its members are butchers that you like to hang out with to a certain extent,” the Ohio lawmaker said, referring to Tlaib.
A shouting match between the two then broke out, with Tlaib demanding that Miller’s remarks be stricken from the record.
The presiding chair ultimately complied with her request, but Miller doubled down on his remarks.
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“Yes, I said it. I own it, and I stand by it,” Mast said on behalf of Miller on the floor.
Tlaib’s failed war powers resolution comes as Iran has sought to tie Israel’s invasion of Lebanon to its ceasefire negotiations with the United States.
Hezbollah, which has long helped Iran project power in the region, rejected a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon’s government Thursday.
Politics
Senate rejects an initial attempt to ban Trump’s $1.8-billion ‘anti-weaponization’ fund
WASHINGTON — Initial efforts in the Senate failed Thursday to block the $1.8-billion fund that the Trump administration has sought to establish to pay people who claim the government wronged them, though further attempts were likely to come Thursday afternoon.
Republicans narrowly voted down a Democratic amendment to ban the payout fund and then Democrats killed a Republican amendment, which would have prohibited the use of federal money for the fund but would have sent $1.7 billion to the Justice Department’s fraud division.
It was the second effort in Congress to rebuke President Trump in two days, following the House vote Wednesday to rein in Trump’s war powers in Iran.
The dueling amendments were proposed by Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.). They were attached to the reconciliation bill that would fund Immigration and Customs Enforcement and the Border Patrol, a high priority for Republicans.
The votes came as the Senate began a “vote-a-rama,” during which lawmakers were expected to propose a stream of amendments to the immigration bill on various topics.
The Trump administration’s plan for the payment fund — widely seen as a way for Trump to compensate his political allies, including those who participated in the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol — set off particular ire from some GOP lawmakers.
The plan has fueled growing unrest within parts of Trump’s party over his governance, compounded by the president’s endorsement of primary challengers to Sens. John Cornyn (R-Texas) and Bill Cassidy (R-La.), as well as Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), which angered some Republican senators.
Cassidy, who lost his primary and has since voiced strong opposition to Trump’s $1.8-billion fund, became a key player in the Thursday votes, voting down Schumer’s amendment but supporting Tillis’.
On Wednesday, Cassidy joined with Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) to argue in a court filing that the $1.8-billion fund circumvents Congress’ authority and violates the Constitution’s spending and appropriations clauses.
“It is an unconstitutional attempt to spend the People’s money without Congressional approval,” Cassidy and Booker wrote in an amicus brief filed in the federal court case challenging the fund.
The fund was created by the Justice Department to settle a lawsuit brought by Trump against the Internal Revenue Service over the leak of his tax returns. Trump and his sons agreed to drop their personal lawsuit against the government in exchange for the creation of the $1.776-billion fund. Critics immediately questioned the plan, and it drew a rare backlash from Republicans.
In late May, GOP senators derailed plans to vote on the immigration bill over their displeasure with the payout fund and with Trump’s desire to use taxpayer funds for his planned White House ballroom. Senate Republicans removed the ballroom funding from the immigration package Wednesday, another setback for Trump.
The Trump administration sought to back away from its plans for the fund this week, following bipartisan outcry and a federal court ruling that temporarily blocked any payouts from the fund. Acting Atty. Gen. Todd Blanche said Tuesday the administration would end its plans to move ahead with the concept.
But Trump on Wednesday told reporters he didn’t know whether the fund was dead, calling it “a beautiful thing.”
After Schumer proposed the first amendment to ban the fund Thursday morning, the Senate came to a standstill as three key Republican senators deliberated. Schumer framed his effort to ban the fund Thursday as a way to force a referendum on Trump’s plan.
The amendment “offers Republicans a choice: Do you support Donald Trump’s $2 billion taxpayer-funded slush fund, or do you want to protect the American people and their paychecks?” Schumer said on the Senate floor before the vote.
Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio) urged Republicans to reject the amendment, saying Democrats were planning to “play so many games” on Thursday during the marathon session.
“We are going to fund immigration enforcement and border patrol, and I urge my Republican colleagues to stay united on that singular mission,” Moreno said.
The amendment failed after Cassidy voted against it. Republican Sens. Susan Collins of Maine, Jon Husted of Ohio and Dan Sullivan of Alaska voted in favor.
Schumer’s amendment was uniformly supported by Democrats, including California Sens. Adam Schiff and Alex Padilla.
Tillis, who also voted against Schumer’s amendment, immediately proposed his amendment. Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Oregon) urged Democrats to oppose it, saying that the proposal would create “a new slush fund” by giving the money to the Justice Department.
“We heard over the last 48 hours that the acting attorney general said that this fund’s not moving forward. All this amendment does is codify what I believe the policy of the DOJ is,” Tillis said on the floor before voting began on his amendment. “This [fund] is unpopular, this administration has said they’re not moving forward with it; this is an opportunity for us to put it to bed.”
Responded Merkley: “Taking one slush fund and eliminating it and then creating a new slush fund still under control of the attorney general is not the way to go. The way to go is to get rid of these slush funds altogether.”
Trump has faced a recent string of failures, including the House vote Wednesday, a court ruling to remove his name from the Kennedy Center and a record-low approval rating among Americans as concern rises about economic issues, gas prices and Trump’s war with Iran.
On Wednesday, Trump lashed out against the four Republicans who backed the House war powers resolution, calling it “an unpatriotic thing” to do and calling the vote “meaningless.”
“They’re GRANDSTANDERS! They should be ashamed of themselves. MAGA!!! President DJT,” Trump wrote.
Times staff writer Ana Ceballos, in Washington, contributed to this report.
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