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A rendering of the South End Coordinated Redevelopment Project, courtesy of Andrew Foley, development director at Jonathan Rose Companies. Credit: GOA Architecture.
Not someday in some distant future. Now.
We are aging, shrinking, and pricing out our own children, workers, and entrepreneurs. Schools face consolidation, taxes are climbing, and employers struggle to fill jobs. We’re too dependent on federal funding to support state spending. A housing shortage is driving up prices, slowing economic growth, and leaves young people feeling forced out.
Staying the course is not a viable option. It only gets worse from here if nothing changes.
The cost of scarcity
For decades, Vermont has treated growth as a threat to mitigate. We are living through the consequences of that mindset, and it hits marginalized communities hardest. True equity requires expanding supply rather than fighting over the crumbs of a shrinking economy. Otherwise, people lose hope and leave. This is already happening: Vermont experienced the nation’s largest percent decrease in population last year, becoming the only state losing population to both natural change and net migration.
The data are clear: Over the next decade, Vermont must add roughly 13,500 workers annually just to maintain economic stability. We need 7,500 new homes each year, yet we only permit about 2,500. When we fail to build, we aren’t “preserving” Vermont. We are pricing out multi-generational families, working-class neighbors, and Black, Indigenous, and People of Color Vermonters who represent our state’s fastest-growing demographic. Saying no to growth denies depopulated rural areas the chance to revitalize their communities. A shrinking tax base concentrates economic pressure on fewer people, creating a vicious cycle that erodes even the most resilient communities.
Most Vermonters support more housing and population growth, and policymakers keep saying they intend to follow the will of the people. However, intentions do not house families, fill classrooms, staff hospitals, or make life more affordable. Outcomes do. Right now, tangible outcomes are coming far too slowly or not at all.
It doesn’t have to be this way. We can choose a different path forward.
From roadmap to results
The planning is done. Between the Vermont Futures Project’s Economic Action Plan and the Vermont Business Roundtable’s Systems Innovation Framework, we have the data-informed roadmaps. We know where the hurdles are: a regulatory system that prizes “no” over “how,” and a fiscal trajectory where spending outpaces tax base growth, both exacerbated by unfunded mandates adding layers to an already inefficient system.
Process continues to overshadow results. It is time for outcomes. Future policymakers should focus on these four immediate shifts:
Regulatory Modernization: Move from a culture of “permission” to a culture of “production.” If a project meets established goals, it should be approved in months, not years. Start with “yes” as the default.
Fiscal Stewardship: Align our budget with economic reality. Vermont cannot tax its way out of a shrinking population and a constrained economy. Families and businesses need a predictable environment that allows them to plan, invest, stay, and grow.
Intentional Growth: Actively recruit and retain a diverse, working-age population. Growth funds our schools, supports our healthcare system and sustains our communities, benefiting the people already here.
Accountability: Ensure enacted policies achieve their goals. If the goal is housing, did we build the homes? If it is affordability, did we bring costs down sustainably? Revisit system design and policies if they fail to produce tangible results.
What comes next
Data is not destiny. Vermont’s future is a choice. Let’s choose abundance because Vermonters can no longer afford to choose scarcity. Here’s how you can help.
To the business community: Step forward to share your experiences with the downstream impacts of public policy. Your insights are crucial to modernizing our rules, regulations, and system design, and restoring Vermont’s competitiveness to build an economy where everyone can thrive.
To policymakers: We stand ready to be your partners. The data is clear, our organizations are aligned, and the roadmap is ready. We don’t need endless studies; we need your help to produce results. As the election cycle approaches, remember that accountability is measured by tangible outcomes for Vermonters, not intentions.
To our fellow Vermonters: Say “yes” to the possibilities in your own communities. Welcome new housing, support the local businesses, and champion a growing tax base over rising tax rates. But wanting change is not enough; you must participate to make it happen. Engage with your elected officials, serve on a local board, and turn out to vote for the future you want to see.
Finally, we must all reshape the narrative about Vermont. Share stories about why you love living and working here and why others should consider Vermont too. Your voice can help break the vicious cycle of scarcity. Speak openly about how growth can improve well-being and why you support it.
Growth is not a threat to Vermont; growth is what will save it.
