RHODE ISLAND — A predicted 3.2 percent 2025 cost-of-living increase for about 71 million Social Security recipients, including about 30,575 people in Rhode Island, may not be enough to keep pace with inflation, according to advocates.

The federal government won’t make a decision on the COLA, as the cost-of-living adjustment is known, until October. Under current government estimates, the COLA would be about 2.6 percent, as it had been for about 20 years before last year’s 3.2 percent increase. The final amount hinges on inflation.

Mary Johnson, an independent Social Security and Medicare analyst who formerly worked for the nonprofit Senior Citizens League, believes the COLA will fall around 3.2 percent. She revised the prediction after April inflation data showed consumer prices were 3.4 percent higher than a year earlier, but down slightly from March’s 3.5 percent inflation rate.

Johnson told MarketWatch that even as inflation cools from two-decade highs, all consumers are still feeling less buying power. But increases in some sectors — including housing, up 5.5 percent, electricity, up 5.1 percent and medical care, up 2.7 percent — hit older adults harder, Johnson said.

Even with the increase in 2024 benefits, older Americans’ buying power increased only marginally.

In a statement, Senior Action League executive director Shannon Benton said the 2024 increase only marginally increased older Americans’ buying power. The average benefit increased by about $50, “and after subtracting $9.80 to cover Medicare Part B premium increases, the total change in benefits came to just $40.20 a month.”

Unless the adjustment is increased, “it appears seniors will continue to suffer financial insecurity as much next year as they have this year,” Benton said.

“While COLA payments will increase to offset the effects of inflation, the problem many have with the potential percentage jump is it won’t get far enough to meet most of the financial needs of seniors,” Alex Beene, a financial literacy instructor at the University of Tennessee at Martin, told Newsweek.

“Obviously,” he said, “daily expenses for this age group continue to rise, but the uptick in health care costs are putting an additional strain on them, and COLA payments may not be enough to match that uptick.”

About 71 percent of older Americans who responded to a 2024 survey by The Senior Action League said household costs have exceeded the 3.2 percent increase in benefits.

“The majority of seniors still feel like their costs are rising faster than those annual adjustments,” Michael Ryan, a finance expert and founder and CEO of michaelryanmoney.com, told Newsweek. “So while the COLA certainly helps, it often still doesn’t fully cover the real inflation draining seniors’ buying power.”

According to AARP, 40 percent of Americans 65 and older rely on Social Security for half of their income, and about 14 percent of them rely on benefits for 90 percent of their income.

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