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Republican majority at risk? A look at the 6 GOP Senate seats most in jeopardy in midterm elections

Published

3 weeks ago

February 10, 2026

Republican majority at risk? A look at the 6 GOP Senate seats most in jeopardy in midterm elections

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The Senate Republican campaign chair has a stark warning for his party as the GOP defends its 53-47 majority in the chamber in this year’s midterm elections.

National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) Chair Tim Scott, pointing to a ballot box deficit the GOP’s facing in the latest Fox News national poll, said it could impact specific Senate races this year.

And Scott said the toughest challenge may be in Maine, where longtime Republican Sen. Susan Collins is running for re-election for a sixth six-year term in the blue-leaning northern New England state.

The straight talk from Scott, at a closed-door meeting earlier this week with fellow GOP senators, comes as Republicans, as the party in power in the nation’s capital, face traditional political headwinds in the midterms. And the GOP is also facing a rough political climate, with President Donald Trump‘s approval ratings remaining underwater while Democrats are energized as they work to win back the House majority and possibly recapture the Senate.

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An exterior view of the Senate side of the U.S. Capitol, on Jan. 12, 2026. (Paul Steinhauser/Fox News)

While the NRSC remains optimistic that it can not only defend but expand their majority, the GOP will be playing defense in half a dozen key races.

Here’s a look at the most vulnerable Republican Senate seats up for grabs in the midterms.

Maine

Collins is the only Republican senator running for re-election this year in a state that then-Vice President Kamala Harris carried in her 2024 presidential election defeat to Trump.

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And Collins has seen a deterioration of her poll numbers among Mainers from her last re-election six years ago.

But Collins, who has long been a top target of the rival Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) has proven tough to beat.

Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, departs the chamber at the Capitol in Washington, on July 24, 2025. (J. Scott Applewhite/AP Photo)

Complicating the Democrats’ push to flip the seat is a competitive primary between two-term Democratic Gov. Janet Mills, who has the tacit backing of longtime Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer and the DSCC, and veteran and oyster farmer Graham Platner, who is running to the left of the governor and who is backed by progressive champion Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont.

North Carolina

Republicans are defending an open seat in the southeastern battleground state, with GOP Sen. Thom Tillis retiring at the end of this year.

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Democrats landed their top recruit when former two-term Gov. Roy Cooper launched a Senate campaign last summer. Cooper enjoys tons of name ID in North Carolina and is 6-0 when running statewide races.

Republicans are rallying around former Republican National Committee (RNC) Chair Michael Whatley, who has the president’s backing.

RNC Chair Michael Whatley announces his run for Senator for North Carolina on July 31st, 2025 in Gastonia, N.C. (Paul Steinhauser/Fox News)

The race is expected to be one of the most expensive and competitive Senate showdowns this year.

Ohio

Democrats scored another major recruiting victory when former longtime Sen. Sherrod Brown announced he would challenge Republican Sen. Jon Husted.

A former lieutenant governor, Husted was appointed to the Senate a year ago after then-Sen. JD Vance stepped down to serve as vice president.

Sen. Jon Husted, R-Ohio, who was appointed to fill now-Vice President JD Vance’s seat, is running in the midterms to serve the final two years of Vance’s term. (Getty Images)

Ohio, once a premiere general election battleground, has turned red over the past decade, and Democrats view Brown as their only competitive candidate in the race to serve the final two years of Vance’s term.

Brown lost re-election in 2024 by roughly four points while Trump carried Ohio by 11 points.

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Similar to North Carolina, the showdown is expected to be very expensive and competitive.

Alaska

Democrats were given a big boost in the red-leaning state when former Rep. Mary Peltola announced last month that she would challenge GOP incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan.

Sen. Dan Sullivan, R-Alaska, is running for re-election in this year’s midterms. (Allison Robbert/AFP via Getty Images)

Peltola lost re-election 15 months ago in the at-large district that covers the entire state by three points, while Trump carried Alaska by 11 points.

Iowa

Republicans are defending an open seat in Iowa, a onetime swing state that’s shifted to the right over the past decade.

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But the GOP has rallied around Rep. Ashley Hinson, who is backed by Trump, in the race to succeed retiring Republican Sen. Joni Ernst.

Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson of Iowa, who is running in the 2026 race to succeed retiring GOP Sen. Joni Ernst, sits for a Fox News Digital interview on Sept. 4, 2025, in Washington, D.C. (Paul Steinhauser – Fox News )

Hinson, a former local TV news anchor who flipped a Democratic-held seat in 2020, is seen as a rising star in the party.

Democrats have a contested primary that includes state Rep. Josh Turek, a Paralympian, state Sen. Zach Wahls and military veteran Nathan Sage.

Texas

Longtime Republican Sen. John Cornyn of Texas is in the middle of a competitive and combustible GOP nomination battle against state Attorney Gen. Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt.

Trump, to date, has stayed neutral in the primary, which will be held early next month.

Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, is facing a combustible GOP primary as he seeks re-election in this year’s midterms. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)

If neither Cornyn, Paxton, nor Hunt wins a majority of the vote next month, a runoff will be held in May.

Cornyn enjoys the backing of Senate Majority Leader John Thune and the NRSC, which worries that the seat would be vulnerable if Paxton, who has plenty of political baggage, wins the primary.

The Democrats, who are eyeing the seat in the right-leaning state, have a competitive contest for their nomination between progressive firebrand and vocal Trump critic Rep. Jasmine Crockett and state Rep. James Talarico, a rising star in the party.

GOP on offense

While playing defense, the NRSC is also eyeing three Democratic-held Senate seats.

The GOP’s aiming to flip open seats in battleground Michigan, where Sen. Gary Peters is retiring, and swing state New Hampshire, where longtime Sen. Jeanne Shaheen is ending her long career, in which she made history as the first woman elected governor and senator.

Republicans are also eyeing battleground Georgia, where they view first-term Sen. Jon Ossoff as the most vulnerable Democrat seeking re-election this year.

The NRSC is also spotlighting the open Senate seat in blue-leaning Minnesota, where Democratic Sen. Tina Smith is retiring.

Former longtime sportscaster Michele Tafoya is being backed by the NRSC as she runs for the GOP nomination.

Michele Tafoya is interviewed by Fox News Digital as she launches a Republican Senate campaign in Minnesota. (Paul Steinhauser/Fox News)

Some Republicans are calling last weekend’s double-digit shellacking in a special state Senate election in Texas in a district Trump carried by 17 points in 2024 a wake up call.

The stunning ballot box setback for Republicans, coming amid backlash over the Trump administration’s unprecedented crackdown on illegal immigration, is further energizing Democrats as they aim to win back congressional majorities.

The victory in Texas was the Democrats’ latest win or over performance in a slew of elections since Trump returned to power in the White House a year ago, as the party stays laser focused on the issue of affordability amid persistent inflation.

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“The White House needs to focus less on foreign policy and immigration and more on affordability to improve our chances in the midterms,” Dan Eberhart, an oil drilling chief executive officer and a prominent Republican donor and bundler, told Fox News Digital.

And Eberhart, pointing to some key Senate races, said he’s worried about “the money game.”

“We’re woefully behind in Georgia. We’re behind in North Carolina. I think that in Texas we’re going to have somebody limp out of a runoff,” he cautioned.

Thune, speaking to reporters this week following the NRSC briefing, said that “the Democrats are targeting a number of our incumbents. And so we’ve got some races that are going to be expensive and hard fought in places like Maine and North Carolina.”

But Thune added, “We feel really good about … where our Senate races are.” And he emphasized that “incumbents in our conference are seasoned veterans who will outwork any of their opponents.”

Meanwhile, DSCC Chair Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand told Fox News Digital last month that “President Trump is creating a toxic agenda that’s harming people.”

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And Gillibrand emphasized she’s “optimistic that we have a shot to take back the majority.”

Paul Steinhauser is a politics reporter based in the swing state of New Hampshire. He covers the campaign trail from coast to coast.”

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Maine

NECEC conservation plan will not protect Maine’s mature forests | Opinion

Published

33 minutes ago

March 5, 2026

Press Room

NECEC conservation plan will not protect Maine’s mature forests | Opinion

Robert Bryan is a licensed forester from Harpswell and author or co-author of numerous publications on managing forests for wildlife. Paul Larrivee is a licensed forester from New Gloucester who manages both private and public lands, and a former Maine Forest Service forester.

In November 2025, the Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) approved a conservation plan and forest management plan as mitigation for impacts from the NECEC transmission corridor that runs from the Quebec border 53 miles to central Maine.

As professional foresters, we were astonished by the lack of scientific credibility in the definition of “mature forest habitat” that was approved by DEP, and the business-as-usual commercial forestry proposed for over 80% of the conservation area.

The DEP’s approval requires NECEC to establish and protect 50,000 acres to be managed for mature-forest wildlife species and wildlife travel corridors along riparian areas and between mature forest habitats. The conservation plan will establish an area adjacent to the new transmission corridor to be protected under a conservation easement held by the state. Under this plan, 50% of the area will be managed as mature forest habitat.

Under the forest management plan, a typical even-aged stand will qualify as “mature forest habitat” once 50 feet tall, which is only about 50 years old. These stands will lack large trees that provide wildlife denning and nesting sites, multiple vegetation layers that mature-forest birds use for nesting and feeding habitats and large decaying trees and downed logs that provide habitat for insects, fungi and small mammals, which in turn benefit larger predators.

Another major concern is that contrary to the earlier DEP order, the final approval allows standard sustainable forestry operations on the 84% of the forest located outside the stream buffers and special habitats. These stands may be harvested as soon as they achieve the “mature forest habitat” definition, as long as 50% of the conserved land is maintained as “mature.”

After the mature forest goal is reached, clearcutting or other heavy harvesting could occur on thousands of acres every 10 years. Because the landowner — Weyerhaeuser — owns several hundred thousand acres in the vicinity, any reductions in harvesting within the conservation area can simply be offset by cutting more heavily nearby. As a result, the net
mature-forest benefit of the conservation area will be close to zero.

Third, because some mature stands will be cut before the 50% mature forest goal is reached, it will take 40 years — longer than necessary — to reach the goal.

In the near future the Board of Environmental Protection (BEP) will consider an appeal from environmental organizations of the plan approval. To ensure that ecologically mature forest develops in a manner that meets the intent of the DEP/BEP orders, several things need to change.

First and most important, to ensure that characteristics of mature forest habitat have time to develop it is critical that the definition include clear requirements for the minimum number of large-diameter (hence more mature) trees, adjusted by forest type. At least half the stocking of an area of mature forest habitat should be in trees at least 10 inches in diameter, and at least 20% of stands beyond the riparian buffers should have half the stocking in trees greater than or equal to 16 inches in diameter.

Current research as well as guidelines for defining ecologically mature forests, such as those in Maine Audubon’s Forestry for Maine Birds, should be followed.

Second, limits should be placed on the size and distribution of clearcut or “shelterwood” harvest patches so that even-aged harvests are similar in size to those created by typical natural forest disturbance patterns. These changes will help ensure that the mature-forest block and connectivity requirements of the orders are met.

Third, because the forest impacts have already occurred, no cutting should be allowed in the few stands that meet or exceed the DEP-approved definition — which needs to be revised as described above — until the 50% or greater mature-forest goal is reached.

If allowed to stand, the definitions and management described in the forest management plan would set a terrible precedent for conserving mature forests in Maine. The BEP should uphold the appeal and establish standards for truly mature forest habitat.

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Massachusetts

Foul play suspected after human remains found in water in Shirley

Published

51 minutes ago

March 5, 2026

Press Room

Foul play suspected after human remains found in water in Shirley

Human remains were discovered Wednesday in the water in Shirley, Massachusetts, and authorities suspect foul play.

Police in Shirley said in a social media post at 7:15 p.m. that they responded to “a suspicious object in the water near the Maritime Veterans Memorial Bridge on Shaker Road.” Massachusetts State Police later said the object was believed to be human remains.

The bridge crosses Catacoonamug Brook near Phoenix Pond.

The office of Middlesex County District Attorney Marian Ryan said a group of young people was walking in the area around 5:30 p.m. and “reported seeing what appeared to be something consistent with a body part in the water.”

Foul play is suspected, Ryan’s office said.

Authorities will continue investigating overnight into Thursday, and an increased police presence is expected in the area.

No further information was immediately available.

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