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Republican majority at risk? A look at the 6 GOP Senate seats most in jeopardy in midterm elections
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The Senate Republican campaign chair has a stark warning for his party as the GOP defends its 53-47 majority in the chamber in this year’s midterm elections.
National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) Chair Tim Scott, pointing to a ballot box deficit the GOP’s facing in the latest Fox News national poll, said it could impact specific Senate races this year.
And Scott said the toughest challenge may be in Maine, where longtime Republican Sen. Susan Collins is running for re-election for a sixth six-year term in the blue-leaning northern New England state.
The straight talk from Scott, at a closed-door meeting earlier this week with fellow GOP senators, comes as Republicans, as the party in power in the nation’s capital, face traditional political headwinds in the midterms. And the GOP is also facing a rough political climate, with President Donald Trump‘s approval ratings remaining underwater while Democrats are energized as they work to win back the House majority and possibly recapture the Senate.
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An exterior view of the Senate side of the U.S. Capitol, on Jan. 12, 2026. (Paul Steinhauser/Fox News)
While the NRSC remains optimistic that it can not only defend but expand their majority, the GOP will be playing defense in half a dozen key races.
Here’s a look at the most vulnerable Republican Senate seats up for grabs in the midterms.
Maine
Collins is the only Republican senator running for re-election this year in a state that then-Vice President Kamala Harris carried in her 2024 presidential election defeat to Trump.
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And Collins has seen a deterioration of her poll numbers among Mainers from her last re-election six years ago.
But Collins, who has long been a top target of the rival Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) has proven tough to beat.
Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, departs the chamber at the Capitol in Washington, on July 24, 2025. (J. Scott Applewhite/AP Photo)
Complicating the Democrats’ push to flip the seat is a competitive primary between two-term Democratic Gov. Janet Mills, who has the tacit backing of longtime Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer and the DSCC, and veteran and oyster farmer Graham Platner, who is running to the left of the governor and who is backed by progressive champion Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont.
North Carolina
Republicans are defending an open seat in the southeastern battleground state, with GOP Sen. Thom Tillis retiring at the end of this year.
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Democrats landed their top recruit when former two-term Gov. Roy Cooper launched a Senate campaign last summer. Cooper enjoys tons of name ID in North Carolina and is 6-0 when running statewide races.
Republicans are rallying around former Republican National Committee (RNC) Chair Michael Whatley, who has the president’s backing.
RNC Chair Michael Whatley announces his run for Senator for North Carolina on July 31st, 2025 in Gastonia, N.C. (Paul Steinhauser/Fox News)
The race is expected to be one of the most expensive and competitive Senate showdowns this year.
Ohio
Democrats scored another major recruiting victory when former longtime Sen. Sherrod Brown announced he would challenge Republican Sen. Jon Husted.
A former lieutenant governor, Husted was appointed to the Senate a year ago after then-Sen. JD Vance stepped down to serve as vice president.
Sen. Jon Husted, R-Ohio, who was appointed to fill now-Vice President JD Vance’s seat, is running in the midterms to serve the final two years of Vance’s term. (Getty Images)
Ohio, once a premiere general election battleground, has turned red over the past decade, and Democrats view Brown as their only competitive candidate in the race to serve the final two years of Vance’s term.
Brown lost re-election in 2024 by roughly four points while Trump carried Ohio by 11 points.
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Similar to North Carolina, the showdown is expected to be very expensive and competitive.
Alaska
Democrats were given a big boost in the red-leaning state when former Rep. Mary Peltola announced last month that she would challenge GOP incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan.
Sen. Dan Sullivan, R-Alaska, is running for re-election in this year’s midterms. (Allison Robbert/AFP via Getty Images)
Peltola lost re-election 15 months ago in the at-large district that covers the entire state by three points, while Trump carried Alaska by 11 points.
Iowa
Republicans are defending an open seat in Iowa, a onetime swing state that’s shifted to the right over the past decade.
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But the GOP has rallied around Rep. Ashley Hinson, who is backed by Trump, in the race to succeed retiring Republican Sen. Joni Ernst.
Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson of Iowa, who is running in the 2026 race to succeed retiring GOP Sen. Joni Ernst, sits for a Fox News Digital interview on Sept. 4, 2025, in Washington, D.C. (Paul Steinhauser – Fox News )
Hinson, a former local TV news anchor who flipped a Democratic-held seat in 2020, is seen as a rising star in the party.
Democrats have a contested primary that includes state Rep. Josh Turek, a Paralympian, state Sen. Zach Wahls and military veteran Nathan Sage.
Texas
Longtime Republican Sen. John Cornyn of Texas is in the middle of a competitive and combustible GOP nomination battle against state Attorney Gen. Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt.
Trump, to date, has stayed neutral in the primary, which will be held early next month.
Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, is facing a combustible GOP primary as he seeks re-election in this year’s midterms. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)
If neither Cornyn, Paxton, nor Hunt wins a majority of the vote next month, a runoff will be held in May.
Cornyn enjoys the backing of Senate Majority Leader John Thune and the NRSC, which worries that the seat would be vulnerable if Paxton, who has plenty of political baggage, wins the primary.
The Democrats, who are eyeing the seat in the right-leaning state, have a competitive contest for their nomination between progressive firebrand and vocal Trump critic Rep. Jasmine Crockett and state Rep. James Talarico, a rising star in the party.
GOP on offense
While playing defense, the NRSC is also eyeing three Democratic-held Senate seats.
The GOP’s aiming to flip open seats in battleground Michigan, where Sen. Gary Peters is retiring, and swing state New Hampshire, where longtime Sen. Jeanne Shaheen is ending her long career, in which she made history as the first woman elected governor and senator.
Republicans are also eyeing battleground Georgia, where they view first-term Sen. Jon Ossoff as the most vulnerable Democrat seeking re-election this year.
The NRSC is also spotlighting the open Senate seat in blue-leaning Minnesota, where Democratic Sen. Tina Smith is retiring.
Former longtime sportscaster Michele Tafoya is being backed by the NRSC as she runs for the GOP nomination.
Michele Tafoya is interviewed by Fox News Digital as she launches a Republican Senate campaign in Minnesota. (Paul Steinhauser/Fox News)
Some Republicans are calling last weekend’s double-digit shellacking in a special state Senate election in Texas in a district Trump carried by 17 points in 2024 a wake up call.
The stunning ballot box setback for Republicans, coming amid backlash over the Trump administration’s unprecedented crackdown on illegal immigration, is further energizing Democrats as they aim to win back congressional majorities.
The victory in Texas was the Democrats’ latest win or over performance in a slew of elections since Trump returned to power in the White House a year ago, as the party stays laser focused on the issue of affordability amid persistent inflation.
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“The White House needs to focus less on foreign policy and immigration and more on affordability to improve our chances in the midterms,” Dan Eberhart, an oil drilling chief executive officer and a prominent Republican donor and bundler, told Fox News Digital.
And Eberhart, pointing to some key Senate races, said he’s worried about “the money game.”
“We’re woefully behind in Georgia. We’re behind in North Carolina. I think that in Texas we’re going to have somebody limp out of a runoff,” he cautioned.
Thune, speaking to reporters this week following the NRSC briefing, said that “the Democrats are targeting a number of our incumbents. And so we’ve got some races that are going to be expensive and hard fought in places like Maine and North Carolina.”
But Thune added, “We feel really good about … where our Senate races are.” And he emphasized that “incumbents in our conference are seasoned veterans who will outwork any of their opponents.”
Meanwhile, DSCC Chair Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand told Fox News Digital last month that “President Trump is creating a toxic agenda that’s harming people.”
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And Gillibrand emphasized she’s “optimistic that we have a shot to take back the majority.”
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The Pittsburgh Steelers’ pair of young quarterbacks received some refreshing news regarding Brendan Sorsby.
With the NFL opting not to hold a supplemental draft this summer and thus ensuring Sorsby’s only other opportunity to enter the league is by declaring for the 2027 NFL Draft, both Will Howard and Drew Allar won’t face any competition from another up-and-coming signal caller this summer.
While next year’s draft is still the target for the Steelers when it comes to finding a franchise quarterback, having to kick the can down the road in this instance means Howard and Allar now have additional time to prove themselves and aren’t at risk of losing their respective roles in 2026.
How Howard Benefits
Unless Pittsburgh was willing, or planning, to carry four quarterbacks had it landed Sorsby in the supplemental draft before it was nixed, Howard was all but certain to part ways with the organization.
Perhaps he would’ve latched back onto the practice squad if he were cut and subsequently cleared waivers, but the 24-year-old would’ve otherwise become a complete afterthought behind Sorsby and Allar.
The outlook on Howard ever becoming a long-term starter for the Steelers is grim at best. Because Sorsby won’t be on the roster this season, however, his battle with Mason Rudolph for the backup job behind Aaron Rodgers won’t be rendered obsolete.
It’s possible Howard could win it over Rudolph and show enough leading into the 2027 campaign that he could earn the starting role to open the year before Allar or a rookie takes over.
That feels like it’s looking too far ahead, though. In the present, the fact that Sorsby isn’t on the team means Howard’s odds of cracking the 53-man roster remain rather high.
Allar Is In a Good Spot
Assuming trading Allar was never on the table regardless of their potential plans if they had brought Sorsby in, the Penn State product was always going to be on the Steelers’ roster in 2026.
The third-round rookie would’ve had far more of a convoluted path to any sort of meaningful role with the team had Sorsby shared the quarterback room with him, though.
Their strengths are incredibly similar, though Sorsby has a significant leg-up over Allar in terms of his mobility, which could’ve ultimately been the difference down the line in any position battle between the two.
It’s still too early to champion Allar, and it’s likely that a first-round quarterback in the 2027 draft would usurp him if that’s the direction Pittsburgh ends up going in.
Nevertheless, with less pressure and more focus from the coaching staff on helping him develop than there would’ve been if Sorsby were in town, Allar doesn’t have to worry about competing with another signal caller when he isn’t really ready to do so.
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Merrill Lynch has hired a veteran Morgan Stanley manager to help oversee branches in Connecticut, western Massachusetts and portions of New York.
Jairzinho “Jazz” Skair joined Merrill as a market manager overseeing offices in Hartford, New Haven, Springfield, Glastonbury, West Hartford, Farmington, Mystic, Guilford, Southbury and Ridgefield, a Merrill spokesperson confirmed. He reports to Central Shoreline Connecticut Market Executive William Cholawa, who returned to the thundering herd in 2024 after around a decade at UBS.
Skair had most recently been a branch manager for Morgan Stanley in Hartford, according to his LinkedIn. He had started his career in the legal department at UBS Wealth Management USA in 1998 and served in a number of finance, sales and management roles, including branch manager in Westport, before joining Morgan Stanley in 2023.
“I had the opportunity to work closely with Jazz during my time at UBS and saw firsthand his passion for coaching, developing people, and driving results,” Cholawa said in a LinkedIn post announcing the hire. “He is a servant leader who believes in being Authentic, Present, and Useful, and those principles are reflected in the way he leads and supports others.”
A Morgan Stanley spokesperson did not immediately return a request for comment.
Merrill and its wirehouse peers have been shuffling and poaching field leaders as they seek to bolster recruiting in an increasingly competitive market.
To that end, Merrill said it had hired two father-son teams with a combined $560 million in client assets. Both joined on June 17.
Roy Savarick and his son, Evan, joined Merrill from Wells Fargo Advisors where they managed around $280 million in assets, according to the Merrill spokesperson. They generated around $2.3 million in annual revenue.
The elder Savarick, a 44-year industry veteran, is based in the firm’s Florida Tropics market led by Jason Edelmann. Evan, who has 12 years of experience, works in New York City from Merrill’s Park Avenue office led by Joe Doonan. They had joined Wells in 2022 from Morgan Stanley, according to BrokerCheck records.
Separately, Brandon K. Pribyl and his sons, Tobey and Bailey, joined Merrill from Baird Private Wealth Management. They had around $280 million in assets and are based in Davenport, Iowa, according to the spokesperson.
The team, which generated around $1.9 million in annual revenue, is part of the Mid Land Market led by Will Cohen. The senior Pribyl had spent the first decade of his career at Merrill. He was not registered between 2009 and 2016 when he joined with Baird, according to BrokerCheck.
(Updated with clarification on the market manager role.)
The recent rain in Maine is easing the drought that parts of the state have been experiencing since the fall.
Scott Dean, a Spectrum meteorologist, said much of Maine has been at least “dry” for several months. Parts of the state, including Portland, Bangor and Bar Harbor, are under a “moderate” drought.
Much of the country is also experiencing a drought, Dean added. The Southeast is seeing extreme levels of drought, and the West coast has been under a drought for years. There are many factors that go into this, including climate change, weather patterns like El Niño and La Niña and other factors.
And, when an area does experience drought, it can become a feedback loop. With less moisture in the ground and atmosphere, the drought can “feed upon itself,” Dean said.
“It takes a while to get into a drought and it also takes a while to get out of one,” Dean said.
But, the rainy days in Maine have been alleviating the drought, Dean said. And, the trend is likely to continue — the forecast is predicting above average levels of precipitation for the next three to four weeks.
“Hopefully, we are continuing to head in the right direction as the drought has eased in these areas,” Dean said.
In fact, if these rains do continue, Maine could come out of the drought sometime this summer.
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