Pennsylvania
July 2024 Swing State Polls: Harris Trails Trump in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Tied in Wisconsin – Emerson Polling
Majority of Democrats in Swing States Say Harris Should be Nominated at DNC
New Emerson College Polling/The Hill polling in five swing states finds Vice President Kamala Harris trailing former President Donald Trump in four states, and tied in Wisconsin. In Arizona, 49% support Trump and 44% support Harris. In Georgia, 48% support Trump and 46% Harris. In Michigan, 46% support Trump and 45% Harris. In Pennsylvania, 48% support Trump and 46% Harris. In Wisconsin, 47% support Harris and Trump respectively.
Support for Harris surpassed Biden’s support from earlier this month in all five states; in Arizona, by four points (Biden’s 40% to Harris’ 44%), Georgia by five points (41% to 46%), Michigan by three points (42% to 45%), Pennsylvania by three points (43% to 46%), and Wisconsin by four points (43% to 47%).
“Harris has recovered a portion of the vote for the Democrats on the presidential ticket since the fallout after the June 27 debate,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Harris’ numbers now reflect similar support levels to those of Biden back in March.”
“Young voters have shifted toward Harris: her support compared to Biden increased by 16 points in Arizona, eight in Georgia, five in Michigan, 11 in Pennsylvania, and one in Wisconsin since earlier polling this month.”
Regarding Vice President Harris’ selection of a running mate, a plurality of Arizona voters prefer Senator Mark Kelly (36%), 27% of Michigan voters prefer Gretchen Whitmer, 40% of Pennsylvania voters support Josh Shapiro, while 14% of Wisconsin voters support Bernie Sanders and 12% Pete Buttigieg.
- Among just Democratic voters, in Arizona 42% prefer their Senator Mark Kelly, in Pennsylvania, 57% prefer their Governor Josh Shapiro and in Michigan 36% prefer their Governor Gretchen Whitmer. Georgia and Wisconsin saw Democrats split among candidates with no one having more than around 20%.
A majority of Democratic voters in each state think Kamala Harris should be nominated at the Democratic National Convention this August.
In the four U.S. Senate Elections, the Democratic candidate continues to lead the Republican candidate.
- Arizona: Democrat Ruben Gallego leads Republican Kari Lake, 46% to 42%.
- Michigan: Democrat Elissa Slotkin leads Republican Mike Rogers, 45% to 41%.
- Pennsylvania: Democrat Bob Casey leads Republican David McCormick, 48% to 44%.
- Wisconsin: Democrat Tammy Baldwin leads Republican Eric Hovde 49% to 43%.
Harris favorability
- AZ: 45% favorable; 53% unfavorable
- GA: 47% favorable; 51% unfavorable
- MI: 47% favorable; 50% unfavorable
- PA: 47% favorable; 51% unfavorable
- WI: 49% favorable; 50% unfavorable
Trump favorability
- AZ: 49% favorable; 51% unfavorable
- GA: 49% favorable; 50% unfavorable
- MI: 48% favorable; 51% unfavorable
- PA: 46% favorable, 53% unfavorable
- WI: 47% favorable; 53% unfavorable
Biden approval
- AZ: 35% approve, 57% disapprove
- GA: 40% approve, 51% disapprove
- MI: 39% approve, 53% disapprove
- PA: 37% approve, 55% disapprove
- WI: 39% approve, 50% disapprove
Gubernatorial approval
- Katie Hobbs: 37% approve, 42% disapprove
- Brian Kemp: 49% approve, 29% disapprove
- Gretchen Whitmer: 49% approve, 42% disapprove
- Josh Shapiro: 49% approve, 31% disapprove
- Tony Evers: 44% approve, 44% disapprove
Gender divide:
Male voters
- AZ: Trump +13 (54% to 41%)
- GA: Trump +10 (52% to 42%)
- MI: Trump +16 (54% to 38%)
- PA: Trump +15 (55% to 40%)
- WI: Trump +13 (54% to 41%)
Women voters
- AZ: Harris +1 (46% to 45%)
- GA: Harris +4 (48% to 44%)
- MI: Harris +12 (52% to 40%)
- PA: Harris +9 (51% to 42%)
- WI: Harris +12 (54% to 42%)
Top issues:
- AZ: 30% immigration, 25% economy, 12% housing affordability
- GA: 41% economy, 10% immigration, 10% housing affordability
- MI: 42% economy, 11% immigration, 11% housing affordability
- PA: 50% economy, 9% threats to democracy, 7% immigration
- WI: 42% economy, 10% threats to democracy, 10% housing affordability, 10% immigration
Methodology
The sample size for Arizona, Georgia, and Michigan is n=800 per state. The credibility interval for each state is +/-3.4%. The sample size in Pennsylvania is n=850, with a credibility interval of +/-3.3%. The sample size for Wisconsin is n=845, with a credibility interval of +/-3.3%. Data was weighted by statewide voter parameters, including gender, age, race/ethnicity, education, and voter registration and turnout data.
The survey was administered by contacting respondents’ cell phones via MMS-to-web and landlines via Interactive Voice Response with respondents provided by Aristotle, along with an online panel provided by CINT. Data was collected between July 22-23, 2024. The survey was conducted by Emerson College Polling and sponsored by Emerson College & Nexstar Media.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and know with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
FULL RESULTS
Pennsylvania
2 Western Pennsylvania men charged in murder-for-hire plot confession to pastor, police say
State police in Western Pennsylvania have charged two men in a murder-for-hire plot after one of the suspects allegedly confessed to his pastor.
NBC News affiliate WJAC reports David Vanatta, 49, and Colton Baird, 32, both of Elk County, were jailed for an alleged plot to kill Vanatta’s ex-wife.
An affidavit obtained by WJAC states Vanetta confessed to a pastor that he paid Baird $2,000 to kill his ex-wife. The pastor then reported the information to police.
Police say the ex-wife was never harmed.
Online court records show Vanatta and Baird are facing several charges, including criminal solicitation – criminal homicide, conspiracy to commit criminal homicide and attempted homicide. Both men are being held in the Elk County Prison without bail.
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Pennsylvania
How the Lehigh Valley helped Pennsylvania’s outdoor recreation economy grow to $19B
Forget elves: Patrick Brogan and his team at ArtsQuest are the reason some of country singer/songwriter Megan Moroney’s fans will awake on Christmas to find tickets waiting for them to her show July 31 in Bethlehem.
Planning the lineup featuring headliners like Moroney at ArtsQuest’s Musikfest each summer, plus other draws like its Levitt Pavilion outdoor concert series, is a year-round activity.
“We put out offers for the following year’s Musikfest before that year’s Musikfest even takes place,” said Brogan, chief programming officer for the nonprofit ArtsQuest. “By the Fourth of July I have offers out for the following year’s Musikfest already and we’re in active conversations.”
Nationally, festivals, sporting events and concerts are a big business, contributing $21.8 billion in 2023 toward an outdoor recreation economy that rose 9% to $639.5 billion compared to 2022, according to new data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Venues like Musikfest helped push ArtsQuest’s contribution to the regional economy to $132.7 million in 2023, based on Americans for the Arts funding formulas. And those summer nights shows are part of Pennsylvania’s outdoor recreation industry that contributed nearly $19 billion to the state’s economy in 2023, up 10% from 2022.
The Keystone State boasts the eighth-largest outdoor recreation economy in the country.
The value of outdoor recreation added made up 2.3% of the gross domestic product for the United States in 2023, in current dollars, and 1.9% of Pennsylvania’s GDP. It generates employment totaling 168,322 jobs in Pennsylvania in 2023, or 2.7% of the statewide workforce, and compensation totaling $8.7 billion, for 1.7% of payroll. Across all 50 states and the District of Columbia, outdoor recreation employment increased in 49 states and the District of Columbia in 2023, topped by 7.5% growth in Alaska; only Indiana saw a drop in outdoor recreation employment, of 4.8%, the federal Bureau of Economic Analysis says.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis, part of the U.S. Department of Commerce, puts out its outdoor recreation economy report each fall. Nationally, the outdoor economy is outpacing other economic growth, the statistics show: Adjusted for inflation, the GDP for the outdoor recreation economy increased 3.6% in 2023, compared with a 2.9% increase for the overall U.S. economy.
What goes into the outdoor recreation economy?
It encompasses core outdoor recreation activities like bicycling; boating and recreation; climbing, hiking and tent camping; equestrian; hunting, shooting and trapping; motorcycling and ATVing; recreational flying; RVing; skiing, snowboarding and other snow activities (including snowmobiling); and apparel and accessories. Also included are outdoor recreation industries like amusement parks and water parks; festivals, sporting events and concerts; field sports; game areas (includes golfing and tennis); guided tours and travel; and productive activities such as gardening, plus support for outdoor recreation under headings that include construction; local trips and travel; food and beverages; lodging; shopping and souvenirs; transportation and government spending.
In the Lehigh Valley, outdoor recreation helps to drive the regional, state and national economy 12 months a year.
“Tickets make great gifts,” ArtsQuest’s Brogan said, with the Musikfest 2025 headliners announced before Christmas 2024 that also include Riley Green, The Avett Brothers, Darius Rucker, Nelly and Jordan Davis.
Regionally, it contributes to a GDP that grew to a record $55.7 billion in 2023, led by manufacturing, according to a December report from the Lehigh Valley Economic Development Corp.
Blue Mountain Resort outside Palmerton, for example, employs around 1,200 people during its peak season in winter when it offers 40 ski trails, five terrain parks, 16 lifts and up to 46 tubing lanes on the north face of the Kittatinny Ridge boasting the highest vertical drop — 1,082 feet — of any Pennsylvania ski area. In the warmer months, Blue Mountain has diversified to offer camping, a bike park and adventure park, along with dining options like the Slopeside Pub & Grill that is open year-round and sports panoramic views of the Pocono Mountains.
Dorney Park & Wildwater Kingdom in South Whitehall Township is part of an amusement and water parks industry worth $515 million in Pennsylvania and over $19 billion nationally. It’s closed to the public for the winter, but not dormant. Management in December announced winter maintenance season was in full swing, with ride inspections for Dorney Park signature attractions like Iron Menace, Steel Force and more; facility upgrades that include refreshing guest services, dining areas, pathways and restrooms; and other enhancements, such as the removal of two aging slide structures and the reimagining of several guest areas at Wildwater Kingdom.
The growth in Pennsylvania’s outdoor recreation economy comes as the state Department of Conservation and Natural Resources is launching its Elevate campaign. Announced during an event in October in Easton, the idea is to work with the businesses that make up Pennsylvania’s outdoor recreation industry to help them grow even more.
“My administration is committed to supporting and growing the outdoor recreation industry, which strengthens local economies, creates jobs, and enhances the quality of life for Pennsylvanians and visitors alike,” Gov. Josh Shapiro said in a news release on the federal economic data released in November. “By investing in outdoor recreation, we’re not just creating economic opportunity but also celebrating the natural beauty that makes Pennsylvania so unique. We will continue working to make the Commonwealth a national leader, where millions of visitors and residents can go to spend time outside with the people they love.”
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Kurt Bresswein may be reached at kbresswein@lehighvalleylive.com.
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