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Finally! It’s time for Pennsylvania’s `only poll that counts’ | John Baer

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Finally! It’s time for Pennsylvania’s `only poll that counts’ | John Baer


John Baer is the Keystone State’s most recognized government and politics columnist. Sean Simmers | ssimmers@pennlive.com

We’re down to days and still don’t know who wins the state most say is most needed to win White House. It’s that kind of year.

Not because candidates are so good. But because neither one’s convincing a majority of Pennsylvanians that they’re good enough. That’s just how we see it. And have seen it.

Check this out. I looked at 70 Pennsylvania polls on Kamala Harris or Donald Trump (and, yeah, and I know you’re thinking, geez, get a life). But guess how many times either got above 50%?

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Remember, this is in the oh-so-split Keystone State, in polling from the start of the race — right after President Biden got out and backed Harris in July — to the dwindling days of the campaign.

Okay, you don’t have to guess. I’ll tell you. Harris topped 50% just four times. And not by much. She hit 51% in a Bloomberg Poll in August. Then, in September, 52% in a Boston-based MassINC poll, 51% in another Bloomberg Poll, and 51% in a Quinnipiac Poll.

Trump? Topped 50% only once. He got 51% in a September AtlasIntel Poll out of Sao Paulo, Brazil (I don’t know, maybe somebody said, `Just find me a good poll. I don’t care if it’s in South America!’).

The latest of the 70 polls were just before Trump’s Madison Square Garden “lovefest” last Sunday. So, they don’t reflect any impact a speaker calling Puerto Rico “a floating island of garbage” has on the state’s 620,000 eligible Hispanic voters. Nor any effect of Joe `that’s-not-what-I-meant’ Biden then calling Trump supporters “garbage.”

But of the 70 polls, all showing a tight race, 20 were ties, Harris led slightly in 32, Trump led slightly in 18. And the average of the last seven had Trump up, 48.1% to 47.7%. A Quinnipiac poll released Wednesday shows Trump 47%, Harris 46%. Or, as we say in the biz, a virtual tie possibly trending toward Trump.

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Now what? Well, now it’s what every election’s about, turnout. Who votes? How much of each candidate’s reliable base shows up? And what about the intangible, slippery, maybe-not-even-voting undecideds? I mean this in the sense of who votes Tuesday and by mail: 1.3 million mail-ins are in; about 2 million mail ballots were requested.

State polls point to candidates’ strongest support: for Harris, women, Blacks and college-educated voters aged 30-to-44 in Philadelphia and Allegheny County; for Trump, white men without college degrees, aged 45-to-64 in central and western counties. Generalizations, I know, and maybe over-stated. But what in politics isn’t?

Plus, this is a squirrely race. And speaking of squirrely, national Democratic guru James Carville, who made his bones in Pennsylvania, wrote in The New York Times he’s “certain” Harris wins. Meanwhile, national polling expert Nate Silver wrote in The Times on the same day he has a “hunch” Trump wins.

As for me, I’m not certain of anything. But I have a hunch. Since this is Pennsylvania – Land of Low Expectations — things won’t go smoothly. I hope I’m wrong.

But there’s mail-in ballot processing, which, thanks to the feeble minds writing our state laws, can’t begin until Election Day. That flaw, left unfixed by our Legislature for four years, could cause conspiracy-inspiring delayed results, as it did in 2020.

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State officials expect fewer mail-ins this year (no pandemic), and note county election boards got state grants for more personnel and new equipment to speed the process. We’ll see.

There’s also litigation over improperly filed mail-ins. The state Supreme Court recently ruled voters whose mail-ins are rejected for errors such as being undated can cast “provisional” ballots which can still count. State and national Republicans sought a stay of that court order pending an appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court.

And this stuff we know about. Who knows what else lurks out there?

I keep wondering how history judges this election. U.S. voters chose wisely? U.S. voters chose poorly? Seems it’s up to Pennsylvania voters to write that history.

John Baer may be reached at baer.columnist@gmail.com

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Pennsylvania launches new website to combat human trafficking | StateScoop

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Pennsylvania launches new website to combat human trafficking | StateScoop


The Pennsylvania Commission on Crime and Delinquency on Thursday launched a new website aimed at preventing human trafficking and better supporting victims by bringing together resources for first responders, social service providers and members of the public.

The announcement came during Human Trafficking Prevention Month at a roundtable discussion in Philadelphia that included state and local officials, advocates, social service providers and survivors.

The new website, developed with Villanova University’s Institute to Address Commercial Sexual Exploitation, provides trauma-informed training materials, guidance on recognizing warning signs of trafficking and information on how to report suspected cases.

“The fight against trafficking begins with coordination and working together to raise awareness of the warning signs, making sure people know where and how to report, strengthening support for survivors, and holding perpetrators accountable,” Kathy Buckley, director of PCCD’s Office of Victims’ Services, said in a press release.

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Human trafficking is the crime of using force, fraud or coercion to induce another person to perform labor or sex acts.

According to the Philadelphia Anti-Trafficking Coalition, the number of identified trafficking survivors in the region increased by 23% in 2025 compared to the previous year. The organization cites housing, food assistance, medical care and counseling among the most common needs for survivors

“That’s the goal of our new website and the purpose of this conversation today, shining a light on organizations leading this work and ensuring that all across Pennsylvania, every individual knows there are people and resources dedicated to combating all forms of exploitation,” Buckley said.

According to the National Conference of State Legislatures, 26 states have enacted legislation creating human-trafficking task forces, study groups or similar coordination efforts. Eight of those states — Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Kentucky, Maryland, Minnesota, Missouri and Rhode Island apply to sex trafficking only, while the others target both labor and sex trafficking.

In 2019, researchers in the Biotechnology and Human Systems studies at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology released a Human Trafficking Technology Roadmap aimed at helping federal, state and local agencies to better identify, investigate and prosecute trafficking cases. The report’s recommendations include building tools that automatically analyze large amounts of data, establishing centralized collections of evidence templates and trafficking “signatures,” and developing shared computing systems for law enforcement and courts.

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Pennsylvania’s new website builds on efforts by the administration of Gov. Josh Shapiro, who announced his reelection bid Thursday, to combat human trafficking. Those include spending $14 million over the past two budget cycles on the Victims Compensation Assistance Program and moving the state’s Anti-Human Trafficking Workgroup under PCCD’s leadership. That group now focuses on training, law enforcement coordination, victim services and public awareness.

Written by Sophia Fox-Sowell

Sophia Fox-Sowell reports on artificial intelligence, cybersecurity and government regulation for StateScoop. She was previously a multimedia producer for CNET, where her coverage focused on private sector innovation in food production, climate change and space through podcasts and video content. She earned her bachelor’s in anthropology at Wagner College and master’s in media innovation from Northeastern University.



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Josh Shapiro to run for second term as Pennsylvania governor, trailed by talk of a 2028 White House bid – The Boston Globe

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Josh Shapiro to run for second term as Pennsylvania governor, trailed by talk of a 2028 White House bid – The Boston Globe


Ever since he won the governor’s office in a near-landslide victory in 2022, Shapiro has been mentioned alongside Democratic contemporaries like California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, Maryland Gov. Wes Moore and others as someone who could lead a national ticket.

Shapiro, 52, has already made rounds outside Pennsylvania. Last year, he campaigned for Democrats running for governor in New Jersey and Virginia, and he’s a frequent guest on Sunday talk shows that can shape the country’s political conversation.

He was also considered as a potential running mate for Kamala Harris in 2024. She chose Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz instead.

A pivotal first term as governor

Shapiro’s first-term repeatedly put him in the spotlight.

He was governor when Pennsylvania was the site of the first attempted assassination of President Donald Trump; the capture of Luigi Mangione for allegedly killing United Healthcare chief executive Brian Thompson; and the murder of three police officers in the state’s deadliest day for law enforcement since 2009.

Last year, an arsonist tried to kill Shapiro by setting the governor’s official residence on fire in the middle of the night. Shapiro had to flee with his wife, children and members of his extended family, and the attack made him a sought-out voice on the nation’s recent spate of political violence.

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As Shapiro settled into the governor’s office, he shed his buttoned-down public demeanor and became more plain-spoken.

He pushed to quickly reopen a collapsed section of Interstate 95 in Philadelphia, debuting his new and profane governing slogan — “get s—- done” — at a ceremony for the completed project.

He crossed the partisan divide over school choice to support a Republican-backed voucher program, causing friction with Democratic lawmakers and allies in the state.

Shapiro regularly plays up the need for bipartisanship in a state with a politically divided Legislature, and positioned himself as a moderate on energy issues in a state that produces the most natural gas after Texas.

He’s rubbed elbows with corporate executives who are interested in Pennsylvania as a data center destination and thrust Pennsylvania into competition for billions of dollars being spent on manufacturing and artificial intelligence infrastructure.

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A repeat winner in competitive territory

Shapiro has enjoyed robust public approval ratings and carries a reputation as a disciplined messenger and powerhouse fundraiser.

He served two terms as state attorney general before getting elected governor, although his 2022 victory wasn’t the strongest test of his political viability. His opponent was state Sen. Doug Mastriano, whose right-wing politics alienated some Republican voters and left him politically isolated from the party’s leadership and donor base.

For 2026, Pennsylvania’s Republican Party endorsed Stacy Garrity, the twice-elected state treasurer, to challenge Shapiro.

Garrity has campaigned around Pennsylvania and spoken at numerous Trump rallies in the battleground state, but she is untested as a fundraiser and will have to contend with her relatively low profile as compared to Shapiro.

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Shapiro, meanwhile, keeps a busy public schedule, and has gone out of his way to appear at high-profile, non-political events like football games, a NASCAR race and onstage at a Roots concert in Philadelphia.

He is a regular on TV political shows, podcasts and local sports radio shows, and he keeps a social media staff that gives him a presence on TikTok and other platforms popular with Gen Z. He even went on Ted Nugent’s podcast, a rocker known for his hard-right political views and support for Trump.

Shapiro also became a leading pro-Israel voice among Democrats and Jewish politicians amid the Israel-Hamas war. He confronted divisions within the Democratic Party over the war, criticized what he describes as antisemitism amid pro-Palestinian demonstrations, and expressed solidarity with Israel in its drive to eliminate Hamas.

In 2024, some activists argued against him being the party’s nominee for vice president. Harris, in her recent book, wrote that she passed on Shapiro after determining that he wouldn’t be a good fit for the role.

Shapiro, she wrote, “mused that he would want to be in the room for every decision,” and she “had a nagging concern that he would be unable to settle for a role as number two and that it would wear on our partnership.” Shapiro disputed the characterization, telling The Atlantic that Harris’ accounts were ”blatant lies” and later, on MS NOW, said it “simply wasn’t true.”

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An audition on 2026’s campaign trail

In a September appearance on NBC News’ “Meet the Press,” the host, Kristen Welker, asked him whether he’d commit to serving a full second term as governor and whether he’d rule out running for president in 2028.

“I’m focused on doing my work here,” he said in sidestepping the questions.

His supposed White House aspirations — which he’s never actually admitted to in public — are also mentioned frequently by Garrity.

“We need somebody that is more interested in Pennsylvania and not on Pennsylvania Avenue,” Garrity said on a radio show in Philadelphia.

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For his part, Shapiro criticizes Garrity as too eager to get Trump’s endorsement to be an effective advocate for Pennsylvania.

In any case, the campaign trail could afford Shapiro an opportunity to audition for a White House run.

For one thing, Shapiro has been unafraid to criticize Trump, even in a swing state won by Trump in 2024. As governor, Shapiro has joined or filed more than a dozen lawsuits against Trump’s administration, primarily for holding up funding to states.

He has lambasted Trump’s tariffs as “reckless” and “dangerous,” Trump’s threats to revoke TV broadcast licenses as an “attempt to stifle dissent” and Trump’s equivocation on political violence as failing the “leadership test” and “making everyone less safe.”

In a recent news conference he attacked Vice President JD Vance — a potential Republican nominee in 2028 — over the White House’s efforts to stop emergency food aid to states amid the federal government’s shutdown.

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Many of Shapiro’s would-be competitors in a Democratic primary won’t have to run for office before then.

Newsom is term-limited, for instance. Others — like ex-Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg — aren’t in public office. A couple other governors in the 2028 conversation — Moore and Pritzker — are running for reelection this year.





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1 killed in crash involving horse and buggy in Lancaster County, Pennsylvania State Police say

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1 killed in crash involving horse and buggy in Lancaster County, Pennsylvania State Police say



One person was killed in a two-vehicle crash involving a horse and buggy in Lancaster County on Wednesday afternoon, according to Pennsylvania State Police.

The crash happened around 1:30 p.m. Wednesday in the 4000 block of Strasburg Road in Salisbury Township, state police said.

One person was pronounced dead at the scene, according to state police.

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Strasburg Road, or Rt. 741, near Hoover Road, is closed in both directions, PennDOT says.

PSP said the Lancaster Patrol Unit, Troop J Forensic Services Unit and Troop J Collision Analysis and Reconstruction Specialists Unit are on scene investigating the crash.



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