Pennsylvania
Finally! It’s time for Pennsylvania’s `only poll that counts’ | John Baer
John Baer is the Keystone State’s most recognized government and politics columnist. Sean Simmers | ssimmers@pennlive.com
We’re down to days and still don’t know who wins the state most say is most needed to win White House. It’s that kind of year.
Not because candidates are so good. But because neither one’s convincing a majority of Pennsylvanians that they’re good enough. That’s just how we see it. And have seen it.
Check this out. I looked at 70 Pennsylvania polls on Kamala Harris or Donald Trump (and, yeah, and I know you’re thinking, geez, get a life). But guess how many times either got above 50%?
Remember, this is in the oh-so-split Keystone State, in polling from the start of the race — right after President Biden got out and backed Harris in July — to the dwindling days of the campaign.
Okay, you don’t have to guess. I’ll tell you. Harris topped 50% just four times. And not by much. She hit 51% in a Bloomberg Poll in August. Then, in September, 52% in a Boston-based MassINC poll, 51% in another Bloomberg Poll, and 51% in a Quinnipiac Poll.
Trump? Topped 50% only once. He got 51% in a September AtlasIntel Poll out of Sao Paulo, Brazil (I don’t know, maybe somebody said, `Just find me a good poll. I don’t care if it’s in South America!’).
The latest of the 70 polls were just before Trump’s Madison Square Garden “lovefest” last Sunday. So, they don’t reflect any impact a speaker calling Puerto Rico “a floating island of garbage” has on the state’s 620,000 eligible Hispanic voters. Nor any effect of Joe `that’s-not-what-I-meant’ Biden then calling Trump supporters “garbage.”
But of the 70 polls, all showing a tight race, 20 were ties, Harris led slightly in 32, Trump led slightly in 18. And the average of the last seven had Trump up, 48.1% to 47.7%. A Quinnipiac poll released Wednesday shows Trump 47%, Harris 46%. Or, as we say in the biz, a virtual tie possibly trending toward Trump.
Now what? Well, now it’s what every election’s about, turnout. Who votes? How much of each candidate’s reliable base shows up? And what about the intangible, slippery, maybe-not-even-voting undecideds? I mean this in the sense of who votes Tuesday and by mail: 1.3 million mail-ins are in; about 2 million mail ballots were requested.
State polls point to candidates’ strongest support: for Harris, women, Blacks and college-educated voters aged 30-to-44 in Philadelphia and Allegheny County; for Trump, white men without college degrees, aged 45-to-64 in central and western counties. Generalizations, I know, and maybe over-stated. But what in politics isn’t?
Plus, this is a squirrely race. And speaking of squirrely, national Democratic guru James Carville, who made his bones in Pennsylvania, wrote in The New York Times he’s “certain” Harris wins. Meanwhile, national polling expert Nate Silver wrote in The Times on the same day he has a “hunch” Trump wins.
As for me, I’m not certain of anything. But I have a hunch. Since this is Pennsylvania – Land of Low Expectations — things won’t go smoothly. I hope I’m wrong.
But there’s mail-in ballot processing, which, thanks to the feeble minds writing our state laws, can’t begin until Election Day. That flaw, left unfixed by our Legislature for four years, could cause conspiracy-inspiring delayed results, as it did in 2020.
State officials expect fewer mail-ins this year (no pandemic), and note county election boards got state grants for more personnel and new equipment to speed the process. We’ll see.
There’s also litigation over improperly filed mail-ins. The state Supreme Court recently ruled voters whose mail-ins are rejected for errors such as being undated can cast “provisional” ballots which can still count. State and national Republicans sought a stay of that court order pending an appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court.
And this stuff we know about. Who knows what else lurks out there?
I keep wondering how history judges this election. U.S. voters chose wisely? U.S. voters chose poorly? Seems it’s up to Pennsylvania voters to write that history.
John Baer may be reached at baer.columnist@gmail.com
Pennsylvania
Sen. John Fetterman receives no support for re-election from Pennsylvania House Democrats: report
Pennsylvania Democrats are reluctant to support Sen. John Fetterman, D-Pa., for re-election, according to a new report.
Punchbowl News spoke to several Pennsylvania congressional members on Monday about whether they’d be willing to endorse Fetterman for another term in 2028 despite the backlash he’s been facing for opposing the Democratic Party.
“Want a sense of how tenuous Sen. John Fetterman’s (D-Pa.) position is with Pennsylvania Democrats? Not a single Pennsylvania House Democrat in the delegation will say Fetterman should run for re-election as a Democrat,” the report said.
Though the House members did not explicitly reject the idea of Fetterman running again, they avoided answering whether they believed Fetterman should seek a second term as a Democrat, often focusing instead on the 2026 midterm elections.
“My focus right now is on 2026, but I would just say I’d be very surprised if he ran in the Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate,” Rep. Brendan Boyle said.
Rep. Chris Deluzio also answered that he would see what happens after 2026, though Punchbowl News acknowledged both he and Boyle are rumored to be launching their own Senate bids in 2028.
Rep. Mary Gay Scanlon added that she was interested in “getting through 2026 first.”
“I’ll hold my tongue so I don’t get in trouble,” Scanlon said.
Rep. Summer Lee told Punchbowl News the decision was “up to him” whether Fetterman should run, though she added that he would do so “at his own peril.”
Others were more vocal about their disagreements with Fetterman, though they stopped short of rejecting the idea of Fetterman running again.
“My concern is entirely about him and his health, and I’ll let 2028 take care of itself,” Rep. Madeleine Dean said.
“I disagree with many of his votes.”
“It’s no secret that I’ve been disappointed with some of his votes and that I’m confused by it,” Rep. Chrissy Houlahan added.
“But I’m not responsible for deciding whether he runs again.”
Fox News Digital reached out to Fetterman’s office and the other Pennsylvania Democrats mentioned in the report for comment.
Fetterman has publicly spoken out against his party on several issues, particularly its growing hostility against Israel.
The Pennsylvania senator has also supported President Donald Trump in his ongoing war against Iran and strict border policies.
Though strategists have suggested Fetterman could switch parties because of his bipartisan stance, he previously ruled out leaving the Democratic Party last year.
“I’m not going to switch. I’m just going to be an independent voice in the Democratic Party. I’m not going to be afraid of people,” Fetterman said.
Pennsylvania
Leon Smith of Pennsylvania named 2026 National Teacher of the Year:
“CBS Mornings” exclusively revealed Pennsylvania high school teacher Leon Smith as the 2026 National Teacher of the Year, which is selected by the Council of Chief State School Officers’ National Teacher of the Year program.
Smith, a social studies teacher at Haverford High School in Havertown, Pennsylvania, said the honor “just means everything.”
“It’s just such an honor to be able to represent teachers all over the country and really stand on the shoulders of so many others that have come before me that have done just such great work,” Smith said in an interview with “CBS Mornings” on Tuesday.
Smith, who teaches AP U.S. history and AP African American studies, was previously named the 2025 Pennsylvania Teacher of the Year.
In a video, students at Haverford High School and colleagues described Smith as passionate, caring, charismatic and engaging.
“He is everything you want in a teacher,” principal Pete Donaghy said in the video. “He relates African American studies or U.S. history to his students.”
Smith reflected on the difference teachers can make in the lives of their students. For him, his favorite teacher was his first grade teacher, Ms. Mason.
“Just how she made me feel,” Smith said. “So I just think that’s the power of a teacher, that it’s not always the content but it’s how you make the students feel is what they remember.”
Smith said he thinks it’s crucial to let students “know that you care.”
“And also just being able to see things in students that they cannot see in themselves.”
Smith is also a longtime basketball coach, coaching the freshman team at Haverford High School.
“I was one of his players and he made sure that I felt seen,” a former player told “CBS Mornings.” “He made me feel like I actually had a purpose.”
Smith’s love for basketball started when he was young. His favorite player ever is Julius Erving, known as Dr. J., who Smith said made him “fall in love” with the game.
Erving surprised Smith on “CBS Mornings” by congratulating him in person on being named the National Teacher of the Year.
“When I got the notification about Leon, I realized that his school Haverford is literally right around the corner from a house that I lived in for 11 years,” Erving said. “So there was a connection … I said, ‘Well, let’s go and be on the show. Go see some people. Spread some joy. Spread some love.’”
Erving recalled a teacher who had an impact on his life.
“The most significant was Mr. Ray Wilson, who actually taught special ed in my high school, but he was also my basketball coach,” Erving said, describing Wilson as a lifelong mentor.
“He lived until he was in his 80s, and he was always there. He was always my first call anytime anything came up. Big or small, I could always call him, anytime, day or night. That was special.”
Smith called meeting Erving an honor and said he’s thankful for a moment that he’ll never forget.
Pennsylvania
Officials react to Pennsylvania abortion ruling, Medicaid ban struck down
A Pennsylvania court ruling is reshaping abortion access in the state, striking down a decades-old ban on using Medicaid to pay for abortions and declaring that the Pennsylvania Constitution guarantees a right to abortion.
The decision came Monday from the state’s Commonwealth Court. In a 4-3 vote, judges ruled in favor of abortion rights in Pennsylvania and invalidated the state’s restriction on Medicaid-funded abortions.
Local abortion-rights advocates praised the ruling as a major step toward protecting access for low-income residents. Adrienne Daily, co-founder of Johnstown for Choice, said, “Everybody should have the right to that. If you restrict the coverage, you’re obviously discriminating against those that have lower income.”
Opponents of abortion rights called the decision a dramatic expansion of the court’s power and warned it will force taxpayers to pay for procedures they oppose. Michael Geer, president of the Pennsylvania Family Institute, said, “Taxpayers now in Pennsylvania will have no choice under this court ruling to fund abortions. And there are many, many millions of Pennsylvanians who think abortion is wrong. It’s the taking of an innocent human life and to force taxpayers who conscientiously object to abortion to then fund it is just plain wrong.”
Abortion-rights advocates pushed back, arguing abortion access is healthcare and a personal decision. Daily said, “This is a family issue. This is a personal issue. This is a bodily autonomy issue.”
Pro-life leaders also warned the ruling could have broader implications for other abortion-related laws. Geer said, “It is sweeping and there’s no question it’s judicial overreach.” He added, “If this ruling stands, it will invite attacks on every remaining pro-life safeguard that has been put into law by lawmakers at the behest to the people of Pennsylvania over decades.”
The case could still be appealed to the Pennsylvania Supreme Court. That decision lies with Republican Attorney General Dave Sunday. His office has not provided a response, but the Associated Press reported a spokesperson said the office is reviewing the decision and did not say whether it will appeal.
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