State Sen. Nellie Pou (D-North Haledon) has emerged as the leading candidate for the late Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-Paterson)’s seat, the New Jersey Globe has confirmed, with Pou picking up the backing of local Democratic party leaders in parts of Bergen, Hudson and Passaic counties. 

That makes her the candidate to beat at the convention to replace Pascrell on the ballot, which will be held on August 29 in Paterson. And it immediately raises the question of whether Pou’s three declared opponents will forge ahead with underdog campaigns.  

Pascrell’s death last week at the age of 87 prompted a week-long scramble to fill his seat, which covers large parts of Bergen and Passaic Counties (including the city of Paterson) and a smaller portion of Hudson County. Democrats in the district have until a state deadline of August 29 to fill Pascrell’s vacant spot on the general election ballot, with no special election or opportunity for voters themselves to weigh in before November.

Within 48 hours of Pascrell’s death, four candidates from Passaic County – Pou, Assemblywoman Shavonda Sumter (D-North Haledon), Assemblyman Benjie Wimberly (D-Paterson), and Paterson Mayor André Sayegh – entered the race. The district is typically seen as a Paterson-based district, and all four represent Paterson in either local office or the state legislature.

But Bergen County makes up a nearly equal portion of the district as Passaic, and in fact has more Democratic county committeemembers in place thanks to vacancies in Passaic. That made Bergen Democrats potential kingmakers in the race – and raised the possibility that they could attempt to swipe the seat away from Passaic County with one of their own candidates, like Bergen County Commissioner Tracy Silna Zur (D-Franklin Lakes) or Assemblyman Clinton Calabrese (D-Cliffside Park).

Juliano’s support for Pou, however, nullifies that possibility and means that Zur and Calabrese won’t be mounting campaigns at Thursday’s convention.

The declarations of support for Pou are more generally part of a broad compromise. Bergen County doesn’t get to send one of its own to Congress, nor does Passaic County Democratic Chairman John Currie get his own first choice (Sumter) elected; instead, they’ll all come together on a candidate who’s broadly liked by all sides.

There’s a demographic angle to their choice, too: the 9th district is plurality Hispanic (around 42% Hispanic to 38% white), and Pou was the only Hispanic candidate running. If she’s elected to Congress, Pou will become the state’s first-ever Latina member of Congress (after three previous Latino members), as well as the first Hispanic member from outside Hudson County.

Assuming the 68-year-old Pou wins the convention, as now looks likely, she’ll go on to face Republican Billy Prempeh in the general election. Pou will be heavily favored in that race, although Prempeh did hold Pascrell to a modest 55%-44% win in 2022 thanks in large part to turnout discrepancies across the district.

Her victory in November would mean that the State Senate seat she’s held since 2012 would also become vacant. The field to succeed her would probably look similar to the one that’s already developed for the congressional seat, with Sumter, Wimberly, and Sayegh all likely to at least consider campaigns.

That’s jumping several steps ahead, since Pou hasn’t even won the convention to be on the ballot yet. But even if one or more of Sumter, Wimberly, or Sayegh does stay in the race, it will very much be an uphill battle with the unified strength of party leadership behind Pou.

The New Jersey Globe, along with On New Jersey and the Rebovich Institute of New Jersey Politics at Rider University, is sponsoring a candidate forum on Monday evening at 8 PM.  Pou, Sayegh, Sumter and Wimberly are participating.