Alaska
JetBlue-Alaska Makes Most Sense, But Does Alaska Want It? – Live and Let’s Fly
There’s been a lot of chatter this week about the possible targets from JetBlue for a merger, and among them Alaska makes the most sense, but are they interested?
JetBlue Explores Merger Targets
As Matthew recently reported in JetBlue Merger Talks Analysis, JetBlue has been actively exploring potential merger scenarios with a range of partners, including United, Alaska, and Southwest. The reporting makes clear this is not idle speculation but a structured evaluation, with advisers engaged and regulatory feasibility playing a central role in how each option is being considered. At its core, the move reflects mounting pressure on JetBlue to find a sustainable path forward after years of inconsistent profitability and a failed attempt to acquire Spirit Airlines.
What stands out in his analysis is how differently each potential partner would reshape JetBlue’s future. A tie-up with United offers the most obvious network and slot advantages but would face intense regulatory scrutiny, while Alaska presents a more palatable antitrust profile with less obvious synergy. Southwest, meanwhile, represents the most unconventional path, with significant cultural and operational hurdles. Taken together, the report underscores that JetBlue is not just exploring growth, it is confronting a pivotal moment that could redefine its place in the US airline industry.
I want to dive deeper into the Alaska angle for a number of reasons.
Alaska-JetBlue Is The Most Logical
As Matthew points out, the route network is perfect for an Alaska-JetBlue merger (though this would undoubtedly be an acquisition of JetBlue by Alaska Airlines.) Alaska has an excellent position on the west coast, and out to Hawaii. It’s spreading its wings from Seattle and already has international long haul from Hawaii to Asia as well. But the northeast is extremely limited both in terms of airports served and connectivity. No one in Boston wants to fly to Seattle or Portland to connect to west coast options. The same was true for JetBlue’s experiment with operations in Long Beach trying to setup a west coast hub.
However, pairing those two lucrative coastal markets would provide incredible coverage. In a few years together, it could make sense to add a midwest hub to carry some of the load.
Alaska has also had an exceptional run as of late, has cash, highly valued stock, and a management structure the industry can trust.
Reasons Alaska Could Be Interested
If Alaska is truly interested in becoming a global carrier, it would be hard to ignore the northeast US market. Expanding into that market would be incredibly expensive and deeply embedded flag carriers would fight tooth and nail, including JetBlue assuming there was no merger. Buying into it could be a different matter. The table is already set, the customers have similar ethos: happy to fly a regional carrier with international aspirations that provides better service and has a personality.
As a defensive measure, Alaska has an opportunity to block other mergers. JetBlue is in the market and will find a suitor (if it can gain DOJ approval.) Its market is desirable, so is its fleet even if it could be run more profitably than it has been in the last few years. United has indicated that it’s open to an agreement but it’s incumbent on JetBlue to come to terms. American wanted a tie-up, had one, then years after it was disallowed by the Biden DOJ is now suing its former partner. While Matthew suggests American might want JetBlue – and it might – the carrier is probably not on the best terms with JetBlue management to construct a favorable deal and it can’t afford to run itself let alone take on more debt. Alaska can swing in and ensure that no one else gets them and expands their footprint and that alone could be worthwhile.
Buying JetBlue also helps grow its ambitions internationally. There’s little doubt that the future of trans-Atlantic international travel, especially for premium markets, is going to be on a narrowbody aircraft. Alaska, itself, is adding flights this summer to Iceland from Seattle on a 737. A base on the east coast with routes that can go to both alliance partner cities like London, Madrid, and Helsinki, and underserved premium markets in Scotland, Ireland, the Netherlands, Germany, anywhere in western Europe, helps a great deal.
It’s not just the European routes, though. JetBlue also has excellent coverage throughout the northeast and via its Fort Lauderdale hub to destinations in the Caribbean. Alaska knows leisure markets well and was the largest operator to Hawaii for many years prior to its purchase of Hawaiian. But it has zero coverage in the Caribbean outside of Cancun and Belize City. Alaska with JetBlue could become a serious bi-coastal force.
Alaska could also cement its place as a serious contender domestically while it grows its international presence.
The credit card base could be an exciting component too, and would likely end Barclays involvement in the US airline affinity space entirely. TrueBlue is valued at $5.5bn (though $2.75bn was leveraged during COVID), and Bank of America only contributed $310MM last year, for which the airline still posted a substantial loss. The carrier also sells miles to American Express, Chase, Citi, and Capital One though each specific value is murkier. The airline expected $50MM in EBIT generated from its United partnership but this would almost certainly fall away in a an acquisition.
Reasons Alaska Will Pass
Jetblue is not in good financial shape. In 2024, the carrier posted a loss of nearly $800MM and while efforts in 2025 cut these losses by almost 25%, it still lost $600MM in 2025 too. At this pace the carrier will be breakeven at the turn of the decade. The value of the airline is not what it’s currently turning over but what it could be. That said, other mergers and acquisitions typically find significant cost savings when combining. Not just by reducing common route frequencies but also by shared resources in outstations (ex. instead of JetBlue and Alaska maintaining two check-in counters and gate allotments, it can reduce its overhead costs.) But these overlaps are limited ad thus so too would be cost savings.
Alaska is primarily a Boeing carrier with JetBlue an all-Airbus airline. This changes everything about the way a combined carrier would operate. It’s not just replacement parts and maintenance contracts but training facilities and range commonality. The Mint product from JetBlue is also something that the combined airline would want to keep especially for long haul flying internationally and trans-continental routes, but would be unlikely to equip across its own fleet even on its long haul narrowbody routes. That makes it tough to integrate.
The carrier is still busy with Hawaiian and its own expansion plans without inviting a regulatory challenge, and the mess of a far greater integration with more moving parts.
Would this type of acquisition face more scrutiny from oneworld than Hawaiian? Maybe, it’s a possible factor and as the airline grows globally, it’s something it will have to consider. American Airlines likely benefits from Alaska’s network participation in the Pacific Northwest and doesn’t really put up a fight in Los Angeles. But in the Northeast it could be a different story.
Conclusion
JetBlue should absolutely consider all viable options for a merger or an acquiring partner. Alaska could be a great fit for JetBlue, and frankly, US consumers. But Alaska doesn’t need another project and that’s exactly what JetBlue would be. It requires its own turn around, there’s no fleet commonality, and no significant operational cost savings. JetBlue might be a great fit for Alaska, but probably not right now. That said, I’d love to see it and it would make the combined carrier a juggernaut and offer serious competition on the coasts and against the majors.
What do you think?
Two US soldiers were wounded by a brown bear during a training exercise in Alaska on Thursday, the US Army stated.
Anchorage Daily News reported that the soldiers were from the 11th Airborne Division, and that the exercise had been a “land navigation training event” near Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson.
State wildlife officials said that the bear attack seemed to be a defensive one, from a bear which had recently emerged from its den. Staff members from the Alaska Department of Fish and Game collected evidence at the scene in an attempt to learn more about the bear, such as its species and gender.
“The incident is currently under investigation, and we are working closely with installation authorities and local wildlife officials to gather all relevant information and ensure the safety of all personnel in the area,” the 11th Airborne Division said in a statement, reported ABC News.
ABC News also cited an 11th Airborne Division spokesperson, Lt.-Col. Jo Nederhoed, who said that the two soldiers had been seriously wounded, but were receiving care at a hospital in Anchorage, and had shown improvement by Saturday morning.
“We hope both individuals have a full and quick recovery, and our thoughts are with them during this time,” Fish and Game Regional Supervisor Cyndi Wardlow said in a statement reported by Anchorage Daily News. “In this case, having bear spray with them in the field may have saved their lives.”
Both of the soldiers reportedly had and used bear spray during the attack.
The bear’s condition and whereabouts are currently unknown.
Up, up and away … that’s where most travel prices are going.
It’s true. Not only are our nation’s geopolitical thrusts in the Mideast affecting the cost of your fill-ups, every component of your trip from airfares to car rentals and hotel stays are subject to price hikes.
Imagine filling up a jetliner with jet fuel that’s doubled in price. It’s enough to melt your credit card, regardless of the number of points you get for every dollar spent!
Because the price of oil affects everything, higher prices are eating away at your travel budget in many ways.
Bag fees
There’s lots of press on this. All airlines are increasing their checked-bag fees because of the jump in fuel prices.
Back in 2009, Alaska Airlines instituted a $15 fee for the first checked bag and $25 for the second bag. At the time, there was no charge for the first bag and a second bag was $25.
Last week, Alaska Airlines, along with other major airlines, increased its fees to $45 for the first checked bag and $55 for the second bag. Delta Air Lines charges the same.
Even if the cost of oil comes down, I don’t expect bag fees will ever be reduced.
Travelers who live in Alaska are somewhat insulated from the new hikes because both Delta and Alaska Airlines offer two free checked bags, with conditions:
1. Alaska offers two free checked bags for travelers flying to or from Alaska who are enrolled in Club 49. This does not affect other flights on Alaska. Separately, ATMOS credit card holders can get a free checked bag. Also, elite members of the ATMOS scheme get one or two free checked bags systemwide.
2. Delta offers two free checked bags for travelers flying to or from Alaska who are SkyMiles members who live in Alaska. Again, this does not apply to other Delta flights. Separately, Delta American Express cardholders can get a free checked bag.
3. Elite-level travelers with the oneworld airline cartel, including Alaska Airlines, can get one or two checked bags on American, British Airways, Japan Airlines, Qantas or other oneworld carriers.
[Anchorage’s international airport rolls out self-driving wheelchairs]
Main Cabin vs. Basic Economy
The spread between the lowest available price, Basic Economy, and a more flexible ticket, Main Cabin, has increased. While the difference used to be $20-$30 each way when the Basic Economy scheme was introduced in 2018, the round-trip upcharge now can exceed $100.
For example, the lowest Basic fare to Portland is $337 round-trip on Alaska Airlines. The upcharge to Main Cabin, with full loyalty points, pre-assigned seats and more flexibility on changes and cancellations, is $447, a 33% upcharge.
This trend is not specifically attributable to the new Iran War. It’s just a cost that continues to rise.
New fees
I’m impressed at the creativity of airline people who dream up new fees. Here are some of my favorites from Alaska Airlines:
1. Phone reservations: $15
2. Partner award booking fee: $12.50
3. Pet travel fee: $100 in the cabin, $200 in the baggage compartment with a kennel
4. Left on board item return fee: $20
On Condor Airlines, operating the only nonstop service from Anchorage to Europe, travelers can choose from four different bundles in economy class. The least-expensive, Economy Zero, from $840 round-trip, features fees for travelers:
1. Carry-on bag fee, up to 8kg: $35; a small bag like a purse always is included for free
2. Checked bag: $75
3. Airport check-in: $30
All three of these fees are included in the next-highest fare bucket, Economy Classic, from $900 round-trip. It’s cheaper to buy the bundle than it is to buy the components a la carte. Seat assignments are additional, from $25 for economy.
Airfares on the rise
There are a few good deals available for travel to select West Coast/Intermountain destinations in May, including:
1. Anchorage-San Francisco on Alaska Airlines, from $307 round-trip. Fly May 15-28 only. Add $90 round-trip for Main cabin.
2. Anchorage-Los Angeles on Alaska Airlines, from $317 round-trip. May 15-25 only. Add $90 round-trip for Main.
3. Anchorage-Phoenix on United, Delta or Alaska, from $267-$287 round-trip. Fly May 8-June 9 only. Add $90-$100 for Main.
4. Anchorage-Denver $357 round-trip on Delta. Fly May 8-June 9 only. Add $90 round-trip for Main.
For travel to other destinations, or later in the summer, be prepared to pay more.
Flying to Hawaii? Alaska Air’s nonstop prices out at $706 round-trip between May 30 and June 6. Add $110 round-trip for Main.
Nonstop flights from Anchorage to Salt Lake City start at $669 round-trip with Delta on May 17. That’s $100 more than the cost for the same flights last month. Add $90 more for Main.
Hotel costs continue to rise, accompanied by pesky resort fees.
The Outrigger on the Beach in Waikiki is a very nice beachfront hotel. It’s not plush, or the nicest property. But it’s solid. The cost is $334 per night.
But there’s more: a $50 per night resort fee, plus a variety of taxes and charges, totaling $112.55 per night.
Down in Seattle, the Sound Hotel in the Belltown neighborhood is marketed by Hilton. The discounted rate for “Honors” members — it’s free to join — is $313.34 per night for a king room in late May. Taxes and fees add an extra $56.40 per night.
There’s no appreciable bump yet for hotel rates as a result of the oil price surge. Yet. But if these hotel rates seem high, they’re in line with hotel rates in Anchorage this summer. At the Sheraton in Anchorage in June, it’s $450 per night, plus $54 in taxes and fees, when booked at Expedia.
Car rentals are not cheap
My go-to site for car rentals is the Costco site, which compares major brands and automatically includes Costco discounts.
In Las Vegas, for a one-day rental in May, Budget charges $67 per day, which includes taxes and fees of $22.77. In Anchorage, the same kind of car, medium SUV, costs $92.97 with Alamo.
The biggest differences so far in car rental rates seems to be the bill you’ll pay when you fill up the tank before returning. There’s no appreciable jump in prices because of the new war.
When it comes to making travel arrangements for the spring and summer, it’s more risky making completely non-refundable arrangements.
I made the decision to purchase most of my summer travel plans in advance, but only after determining I would not need to change the dates. Particularly with airline tickets, it’s expensive to change your dates.
There’s lots of uncertainty regarding travel arrangements, particularly international travel. As fuel prices go up due to oil shortages, travel companies will look for ways to recoup the increased costs. In most cases, those higher costs will be borne by travelers.
ANCHORAGE, Alaska (KTUU) – The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has led to a decrease in oil prices nationally, but Alaska’s senior senator said the state faces a different situation that could threaten rural communities.
“If you can’t produce power because you don’t have the diesel or you just can’t pay the prices, your little communities can collapse,” Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, said at a Friday press conference at the Arctic Encounter Summit in Anchorage.
The price of oil has been a double-edged sword for Alaska. On one hand, the increased price of North Slope oil brings more revenue to the state, but consumer prices can also rise.
North Slope oil prices were $106.36 a barrel on Thursday.
“This is a very precarious time,” Murkowski said. “Our state has enjoyed a bounty because we have benefited from the higher prices of oil that goes into our treasury, but it’s the Alaskans in … the off-road communities that are threatened to be hit most hard.”
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