A poll of New Jersey Democrats showed Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop, and Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) as the gubernatorial candidates with the highest net favorability ratings, but with Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-Tenafly) with higher favorables than Sherrill.  

Wednesday’s Fairleigh Dickinson University poll of 572 Democrats shows “clear lanes” forming in the gubernatorial primary, according to the release. The results show Baraka with the strongest performances among the state’s progressives, while Sherrill performed stronger among the party’s moderates.

The poll did not ask respondents who they would vote for; questions were limited to name ID and favorability. Baraka is currently edging out the competition among voters on the left of the Democratic Party,” said Dan Cassino, the executive director of the FDU poll. “If the primary electorate skews left, that’s a big advantage; if the electorate looks more like the Democratic Party as a whole, it looks better for Sherrill.”

Baraka led candidates with a +31% net favorable rating (43% favorable-12% unfavorable). Fulop was next at +26% (32%-7%), and Sherrill was right behind at +25% (31%-6%). Behind them, Gottheimer enjoyed a +17 net favorability rating (27%-10%), New Jersey Education Association President Sean Spiller received a +8% net rating (22%-13%), and former Senate President Steve Sweeney received a -1% net favorability rating (23%-24%).

The survey found Baraka and Sweeney led the Democrats in name recognition. Among Democrats, 78% said they recognized Baraka and 73% said they knew who Sweeney was. Those numbers were 62% for Fulop, 61% for Gottheimer, and 56% for Sherrill and Spiller.

In the trio of Baraka, Sherrill, and Fulop, the Newark mayor’s unfavorable ratings were higher, at 12%. Fulop’s unfavorables sat at 7%, and 6% said they found Sherrill unfavorable.

“Lower name recognition means that Fulop and Sherrill have more room to grow their support than Baraka does,” said Cassino. “More Democrats have made up their minds about Baraka, and double-digit unfavorable numbers among your own party are a bad sign for anyone.”

Baraka held an advantage with respondents of color. More than six in ten Black respondents (63%)  said they had a favorable view of Baraka; the next-highest were Fulop and Spiller with 19%.

Among Hispanic respondents, 40% said they held a favorable opinion of the Newark mayor. The next closest was Fulop with 26%.

“We don’t know what the voters who actually turn out in this primary are going to look like,” Cassino said. “If it’s more Black and Hispanic, Baraka has a clear advantage; if it skews more white, Sherrill is in a very good position.”

The poll found Democrats rated Spiller differently depending on whether the pollster described him as “President of the NJEA” or “Democratic former Mayor of Montclair.”

When referred to as a Montclair mayor, his ratings came in at 20% favorable and 10% unfavorable. When described as the NJEA’s president, his ratings were 23% favorable and 16% unfavorable.

A PAC connected to the NJEA said in filings it expected to spend about $35 million promoting Spiller’s candidacy in the primary.

“One of Spiller’s biggest advantages in this race – his connection to the NJEA – also looks like something of a liability among voters,” Cassino said.

Baraka is leading in favorables with the party’s left-wing voters, but the net favorables for progressives show a tight race. Among progressives, Baraka had a +35% net favorability, Fulop was +38%, and Sherrill was +34%. The other three—Gottheimer (+12%), Spiller (+11%), and Sweeney (+0%)— were further behind with progressives.

The Fairleigh Dickinson University poll conducted by Braun Research of 1,476 registered voters between Feb. 23 and Feb. 28 with a margin of error of +/- 3.8%. The poll used a subsample of 572 Democrats for questions about the Democratic gubernatorial primary.