New Jersey

A Modest Theory About Those Drones Over New Jersey

Published

12 hours ago

December 25, 2024

Press Room

A Modest Theory About Those Drones Over New Jersey

(Photo by Gary Hershorn/Getty Images)

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The welter of stories about unidentified drones over New York and New Jersey multiply, as do the myriad speculations. Thus far the narratives fall into three categories: private drones, those deployed by hostile foreign actors, those belonging to US authorities on a shadowy unacknowledged mission. The media has taken up the cause and the story has gone mainstream, with baffled officials furnishing no unified explanation – and President elect Trump weighing in. This installment of the column will add one more theory to the growing noise, but a theory grounded in full context, covering all the known facts and hopefully all the more plausible for that albeit.

To begin with, let us dismiss the private drone scenario quickly. Any private entity causing such panic would soon admit it and apologize for fear of being found out. The authorities via satellite would know whence they came, track them and reveal the facts. Next, the foreign actor theory – again, as Donald Trump says, the military or intelligence people would know. They might stay silent about it for fear of provoking a confrontation with a foreign power. The US is, sadly, prone to such deliberate passivity, the latest example being the Havana Syndrome findings by Congress which rejected the intelligence community’s previous report that the Syndrome doesn’t exist and no foreign power is responsible. The recent ad hoc Congressional Committee officially found that the Havana Syndrome is real and a foreign state is likely behind it.

So, back to the drones: do the authorities know that a foreign power is responsible for the drone outbreak but won’t say so? Timing is everything in such events. The Biden White House, as we have seen with aid spikes to Ukraine and granting permission to hit inside Russia, is not shy of adding last minute foreign policy complications to the incoming administration. Were it a hostile power, we would know all about who unleashed the drones. Which leaves the third and last category, that the drone phenomenon was a government initiative which authorities do not wish to acknowledge, a stealth operation that went public inadvertently. As this column is focused on geostrategic affairs, the possible explanation falls into its bailiwick.

Nobody has quite understood why the US and Germany refused, until recently, to allow Ukraine to use allied weapons to strike inside Russia (Germany still refuses). All manner of theories have swirled but nothing coherent obtained, other than an abiding fear of Russian retaliation. Yet Washington gave the go-ahead for Ukraine to use American weapons across its border in recent months, especially after Trump’s electoral victory. Did the Russian threat to retaliate against the US diminish? Did the US suddenly get safer? And why did it take so long to grant permission? The truth is, any sort of highly visible and attributable strike against the US was never a risk because Moscow would have suffered devastating retaliation. But an anonymous catastrophe in a major US city would work. A kind of secret Samson Option, or hidden nuclear device in Germany or America should Russian soil be bombed by allied weapons. The great efficacy of such a threat lies not in its use but entirely in the threat, the ambiguity. And the restraint or doubt it induces.

Nor should the threat be too visible or public. Anything that detonates massively raises an outcry, puts pressure on the authorities to find a return address, a clear culprit. No foreign power would risk such a big provocation that it would be identifiable and cause retaliation. Witness 9/11. One has to conclude, therefore, that the real version of such a threat would be scary rather than hugely destructive. The device would need to be constructed discreetly and stowed or delivered equally discreetly. And no foreign state actor would take responsibility. So, a small radiation device fits the bill. And this is precisely what New Jersey officials have been saying about the drone activity, namely that it’s our side looking for a small medical isotope gone missing, one that was aboard a container ship and went missing. But a federal agency has just denied the US was flying drones in search of nuclear radiation. All of which is standard procedure for stifling panic.

Finally, there’s this: the foreign actors would not deliver a direct threat. They would retain deniability, as in the Havana Syndrome. If, indeed, it’s a radiation device, nobody knows who was behind it, though the technical sophistication suggests only rival superpowers qualify as suspects. Which brings us back to the Russian dark ops and the inexplicable restraint of the Biden White House over helping Ukraine.

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New Jersey

Fresh snow coats some North Jersey towns for a white Christmas

Published

3 hours ago

December 25, 2024

Press Room

Fresh snow coats some North Jersey towns for a white Christmas

2-minute read

New Jersey experienced a frosty December — and Christmas has proved no exception.

Christmas morning temperatures accross the Garden State dipped into the low to mid-20s in much of the state, and even into the teens in higher elevations, forecasters said. While most towns saw little to no overnight snow accumulation, some lucky areas awoke to a white Christmas.

How much snow did North Jersey see?

Snowfall leading up to Christmas was light but enough to dust parts of the state with festive flurries. Bergenfield reported one of the highest accumulation, measuring 1 inch of snow on Christmas Eve. Nearby, Ramsey recorded 1.1 inches, and Sparta with 1.6 inches of snowfall.

In New Providence, Paramus and Stewartsville, snow totals were less than an inch, with each town reporting between 0.6 and 0.8 inches. Somerset logged an inch, while Wantage received 1.3 inches.

For those dreaming of a white Christmas, Bergenfield, Ramsey, Sparta and Wantage offered picturesque views, with enough snow to blanket the ground in holiday cheer. Meanwhile, other areas in the state settled for a chilly but snow-free holiday.

Whether blanketed in white or simply bundled up, New Jersey residents should brace for continued cold as the year comes to a close.

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New Jersey

What about tariffs? What North Jersey shoppers can expect from retail in 2025

Published

20 hours ago

December 24, 2024

Press Room

What about tariffs? What North Jersey shoppers can expect from retail in 2025

1-minute read

New Jersey is synonymous with retail.

With shopping malls throughout the state, including the largest mall in New Jersey located in Paramus, there are endless options to find what you need.

And with one of the largest ports on the East Coast, New Jersey is not only home to retail, but also to a robust shipping industry.

Expect changes in both those areas in 2025 ― and be on the lookout for changes in the costs of goods if President-elect Trump enacts his proposed tariff program.

Port workers and the association representing marine terminals have until Jan. 15 to reach a deal on a new master contract, with automation being a main sticking point. The union representing the port workers has promised to go on strike if a deal is not met, potentially increasing prices on store shelves and upending supply chains.
Developers at Garden State Plaza and Bergen Town Center in Paramus are in the process of constructing thousands of new apartments. At the Garden State Plaza complex there will be retail, dining, outdoor markets and a 1-acre town green, with an early-2025 groundbreaking expected.
President Donald Trump has vowed to enact 25% tariffs on goods coming from Mexico and Canada, and 10% tariffs on goods coming from China. New Jersey manufacturers have sped up imports and stockpiled raw materials in anticipation of the increased costs from imports.

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New Jersey

New Jersey Devils Prospect Update: Your 2024 Devils All-Prospect Team

Published

1 day ago

December 24, 2024

Press Room

New Jersey Devils Prospect Update: Your 2024 Devils All-Prospect Team

The Rules

Before we begin, a quick breakdown of the rules. I select a lineup of players with an eye of putting the best projected lineup together of players as they are realistically projected to be in their prime. Players who are older will benefit from a higher degree of certainty, but younger prospects will be given consideration of their realistic (i.e. not ideal) projections so as not to load a lineup full of AHLers, who are further along in their development.

For this exercise, I will not differentiate between left and right wing or right and left defense, nor will I consider “handedness” of any of the prospects. Players who have made the full-time jump to the NHL are ineligible. Lastly, the age cutoff is 23, so players such as Nolan Foote, who turned 24 last month, are also ineligible. Let’s get started.

Top Line

Center Matyas Melovsky; Wingers Lenni Hameenaho and Arseni Gritsyuk

The Devils prospect pool is notoriously short of center depth. However, Matyas Melovsky has had a breakout season as a 20-year-old playing for Baie-Comeau Drakkar of the QMJHL. The first Devils prospect in any league to reach thirty points this season, Melovsky, who plays both wing and center, is more of a playmaker than a natural goal scorer. The center is well built for the NHL game at 6’1’’, 190 pounds and uses his strength to body opponents, earning high marks from many scouts for his defensive game. If properly developed, Melovsky could blossom into a versatile bottom 6 forward at the NHL level some day.

For this exercise, Melovsky will be dishing the puck to the top two offensive prospects in the Devils system on the top scoring line, while providing some much-needed two-way play at center. Russian winger Arseni Gritsyuk would provide zone entries and some dazzle to the line, while Finnish Forward Lenni Hameenaho would work his magic around the net. Gritsyuk and Hameenaho are both in the midst of strong seasons in their respective top leagues. It would not be surprising to see this entire line playing in North America for the Devils organization next season.

2nd Line

Center Adam Beckman; Wingers Cam Squires and Herman Traff

Adam Beckman is a bit of a cheat as the player acquired by the Devils for Graeme Clarke over the summer has been playing right wing on Utica’s second line. However, Beckman can play center and the center depth is bad enough for me to slot him here. Whatever problems Utica has had this season, and there have been many, Adam Beckman has not been one of them, scoring sixteen points in eighteen games. This makes his lack of a call-up to the big club during the myriad of injuries so far this season rather surprising. At 23-years-old, Beckman is becoming close to a finished product as he awaits another opportunity to play in the NHL.

On the All-Prospect Team, the AHL veteran will center two younger players on this line. After a rough start and a couple of suspensions, Cam Squires has caught fire for the Cape Breton Eagles and is the only Devils prospect not named Matyas Melovsky to be averaging over a point per game. Power forward Herman Traff has been a steady presence in the SHL playing amongst men as a 18-year-old in his D+1 (Traff turns 19 on December 31st), tallying seven points in nineteen contests and earning a spot on Team Sweden in the World Juniors. Cam Squires has already signed his ELC with the Devils and should join the Comets next season as Utica’s season is likely to end before Cape Breton’s. Traff will likely continue to develop in the SHL next season.

3rd Line

Center Samu Salminen; Wingers Josh Filmon and Chase Stillman

Coming into this season, this line would have looked really good on paper. Samu Salminen, another forward who plays center and wing, centers this line by default, given the aforementioned lack of center depth. The power forward has been streaky this year after transferring to the University of Denver from the goal-anemic UConn. With six goals and six assists in eighteen contests, this will likely be Salminen’s best offensive season. Whether it be enough to earn him a contract with the Devils this summer is anybody’s guess.

Much has been written about wingers Josh Filmon and Chase Stillman this season. Filmon has already been demoted to Adirondack of the ECHL, where he has, at times, toiled on the fourth line. At the time this article was written, Stillman is still hanging onto a fourth line spot for the Utica Comets, but has struggled and I speculated last week whether a short stint in the lower league may help spark him a bit. It is way too soon to give up on Filmon or Stillman, but to say that this has been a challenging year for the duo would be a bit of an understatement.

4th Line

Center Max Graham; Wingers Kasper Pikkarainen and Cole Brown

The fourth line of the All-Prospect team is intriguing. Max Graham is another center, who also plays wing. That’s zero natural centers in the system for those keeping track. After being selected as an overager in last year’s NHL entry draft, Graham, who is known for his leadership and his fisticuffs, has broken out offensively in the WHL with 24 points in 26 games. Graham’s pathway to the NHL would be that of a physical two-way grinder, who kills penalties (something he would need to learn) and sticks up for his teammates, but at 6’3’’ doesn’t quite have the size to be a true heavyweight in the NHL.

The two wingers on the fourth line are big question marks. Kasper Pikkarainen was chosen in the 3rd round by the Devils this summer and then proceeded to get injured in his first game for the Red Deer Rebels of the WHL and has not played since. As such, Pikkarainen’s progress is impossible to evaluate and one will have to wait until the winger returns to game action to see how the injury impacted his development. Pikkarainen’s selection here is purely based on his status from the draft. Cole Brown is a winger for the Brantford Bulldogs, who is on pace for 60 points, a full 21 points more than last season. More impressively, this pace has been a result of a late surge after a very slow start. As with Salminen, it is still up in the air as to whether this will be enough for the Devils to offer Brown a contract, but the winger has certainly earned that consideration.

Defensive Pairings

Anton Silayev, Simon Nemec

Seamus Casey, Daniil Orlov

Topias Vilen, Ethan Edwards

The first three selections for the Devils defense were rather straightforward. Not much needs to be written to justify the inclusion of Anton Silayev, the 6’7’’ Russian blueliner who has suited up for 32 games for Torpedo Nizhny Novgorod of the KHL this season and tallied seven assists as an 18-year-old. Likewise, #2 overall pick Simon Nemec broke into the NHL last season and has been the odd man out with the stellar play of Jonathan Kovacevic. Nemec has not exactly lit up the AHL since his demotion, but his focus has been on becoming a steadier presence in the backend. The offense for the Comets from the blueline has been left up to Seamus Casey, the third easy selection for defense on this team. Casey has proven capable of playing in the NHL already in a sheltered role and has carried his four points in his first eight NHL games to fourteen points in seventeen games since his demotion to the Comets.

The other three defensemen were a much tougher decision. One could argue Daniil Karpovich deserves consideration and I would agree. However, as Karpovich split nine games between the KHL and VHL this season before his injury and after a season in the more obscure Belarusan league, it is really difficult to pinpoint his progress. Likewise, Santeri Hatakka probably would have made this team if not for his injury this preseason. Fellow Comet Daniil Misyul, who played one game for the Devils this season, has aged out of consideration for this team. Defensive defensemen Charlie Leddy and Artyom Barabosha were also considered and Barabosha might have made the cut if not for splitting time between the KHL and VHL this year after seemingly earning a full promotion to the KHL last season.

I chose Russian defender Daniil Orlov, who seems to have the speed and transition skills to possibly play in the NHL one day should he ever stay healthy enough to fully develop and decide to come to North America. Topias Vilen and Ethan Edwards were also difficult selections. Ethan Edwards has a chance to be an Andy Greene-like defenseman should he reach his potential, but such players are very rare at the NHL level. Moreover, as a senor this season, it is unclear where Edwards will end up this summer. Former 5th rounder, Topias Vilen earned his ELC after showing tremendous promise with a breakout in the Liiga. After a demotion to the ECHL last season, Vilen picked up his game and finished strong with 29 points in 54 AHL games proving his newly-found offense could translate to North America. This season, Vilen has only played in fourteen contests for the Comets, totaling a goal and three assists, after returning from an upper body injury suffered during the preseason. Vilen is still only 21-years-old and defensemen develop later, so I would not worry too much about him yet. There is still a chance Vilen develops into a strong puck-moving defenseman in the NHL some day given his skill set.

Goaltenders

Jakub Malek

Nico Daws

At 22-years-old, Jakub Malek is the best goaltending prospect in the Devils system. Since the Devils drafted him in the fourth round (100th overall) in the 2021 NHL entry draft, Malek has dominated just about everywhere he has played. Currently, that somewhere is the Liiga, where the netminder has either been at the top or near the top all season in GAA (2.06) and SV% (.918). Malek also possesses the athleticism to be a starting goalie in the NHL should he reach his full potential. That is not just me saying that. The latest Dobber update on Malek says essentially the same thing. Of course, most players never reach their full potential and whether Malek will remains to be seen, but given the goaltender’s track record of consistency since his draft year, I would not bet against him. Even if Malek maxes out as a capable back up in the NHL, the netminder would earn the top spot here.

Devils fans are likely more familiar with Nico Daws, who has already played quite a few games for the Devils in recent seasons, mostly in call-ups. After the Devils traded Akira Schmid over the summer, Daws became the defacto third string goalie for the Devils. Daws has struggled this season for a bad Comets team with a 3-10-2 record, 3.18 GAA and .895 SV%, but has outperformed (at least in terms of SV%) his platoon-mate Isaac Poulter after losing out to Poulter last year. It is no secret that Daws has played on a lot of bad Devils teams and it is hard to say how much of Daws’s raw numbers have been diminished by that reality. Daws has the ability to steal games at times, even high profile games at the NHL level. Consistency has been the issue with Daws, something Malek has not struggled with. For that reason, Malek gets the nod as the starter of this hypothetical team.