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Shellfish dying, lobster leaving: Mass. marine ecosystem faces hotter, harsher future as climate warms – The Boston Globe

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Shellfish dying, lobster leaving: Mass. marine ecosystem faces hotter, harsher future as climate warms – The Boston Globe


The Boston Research Advisory Group report found that deadly hot marine heat waves — once extremely rare — could become commonplace. Scientists warn that those and other impacts are only going to get worse if the climate continues to warm with dire and possibly irreversible impacts on the ocean.

If the planet does not stop emitting planet-warming greenhouse gasses, marine heat waves could occur off the coast of Massachusetts once every decade if the planet reaches 2 degrees Celsius of warming and perhaps every other year with 3 degrees of warming. The vast majority of excess heat generated by anthropogenic warming is absorbed by the planet’s oceans.

“The possible impacts described in this report are not pleasant,” said Paul Kirshen, a professor of climate adaptation at the University of Massachusetts Boston and an author of the report. “We need to get to net zero emissions and below as soon as possible.”

Unlike on land, where humans can build a seawall to protect from coastal flooding, for example, there is very little that can be done to help ecosystems adapt to warmer water and higher acidity, experts said. The trends noted in the report will be “very difficult” to respond to, Kirshen said.

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The report was created to answer questions posed by leaders of coastal Massachusetts towns and cities about what communities could expect over the next few decades as the climate continues to warm. Many of those towns have local economies that are at least in part dependent on commercial fishing, an industry that is likely to be dramatically changed by a warmer and more acidic Massachusetts Bay.

Native fish populations will likely continue their decline off of Massachusetts’ coast, while species from further south will move in, scientists found. The bay will continue to get acidic and inhospitable for the many fish, plants, and shellfish that live there now.

Oceans absorb about 30 percent of the carbon dioxide that’s released into the atmosphere. When absorbed, carbon dioxide makes sea water more acidic through chemical reactions, putting the entire food web in the marine ecosystem at risk, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

One example: Higher acidity causes shells to deteriorate, which kills shellfish. That will be an early marker of a shift in fishing ecology in Massachusetts Bay, the Boston-area researchers warned.

“Shell fisheries should be monitored … for warning signs,” the report said. As acidity increases, there are fewer carbonate ions in the water, an essential ingredient to build shells.

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Meanwhile, the Atlantic Cod’s numbers have already declined and the American lobster population is moving north. Scientists further expect populations of winter flounder, silver hake, and Atlantic herring to decline as well.

As others move out, species more suited to warmer temperatures are expected to move in, such as summer flounder, black sea bass, blue crab, and butterfish among them.

Jason Krumholz, an oceanographer and associate professor at the University of Connecticut, said that when he started graduate school in 2005, only very rarely did he catch blue crabs in nets. Now, more than half the crabs he catches are blue crabs, he said.

“I’m not that old yet, and this is a change that I’ve seen just in my career,” said Krumholz, one of the authors of the report. “It’s pretty fast.”

The fishing industry could likely adapt to this change by convincing buyers to push different offerings on the menu, Krumholz said. “We may have a lot more flags outside of restaurants with blue crabs on them instead of lobsters in 20 years.”

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Scientists have also observed that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is slowing down. It’s one of the planet’s most prominent and powerful ocean currents and helps to moderate the climate at sea and on land near the shore.

That’s a wild card for ocean temperatures, said Bruce Anderson, an oceanographer and professor at Boston University and one of the lead authors of the report. The phenomenon could weaken and broaden the Gulf Stream, which brings warm tropical waters to the region.

“It’s really unclear what the Gulf Stream is going to do and how that change is going to affect things like the fisheries or even our climate here in Massachusetts,” Anderson said.

If the Gulf Stream slowdown continues, the water offshore of Massachusetts could see “substantial” warming as subtropical waters diffuse northward into the region, scientists found, further compounding the problems.

Another area of uncertainty: How President-elect Donald Trump’s administration could impact the trajectory of offshore ecosystems.

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Environmental advocates are worried that the incoming Trump administration will try to slash budgets for federal environmental agencies, which could both slow the energy transition from fossil fuels to clean energy and affect efforts to clean up marine pollution.

Many federal grants finance beach cleanups, water quality testing, and other programs to manage the marine environment, said Jeff Watters, vice president of external affairs of the Ocean Conservancy, a nonprofit organization.

“I think they’re more at risk now than they were under the first [Trump] administration,” Watters said, because Congress was able to block some of those defunding efforts last time. “Pollution could absolutely go up; that’s a real possibility.”

Those fears come as marshes and coastal ecosystems are already threatened by plastic and pharmaceutical pollution, and runoff pollution is expected to increase due to stronger storms and an increase in coastal populations, according to the new report.

The pollution in Massachusetts Bay is affected by the behavior of people: What they buy, where they fish, how they recreate, and where they live, said Anderson of Boston University.

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Yet, perhaps in that relationship lies a glimmer of hope: Towns, cities, and individuals can prevent further pollutants from entering the ecosystem. “This is a very sensitive environment to everyday decisions,” Anderson said.


Erin Douglas can be reached at erin.douglas@globe.com. Follow her @erinmdouglas23.





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Massachusetts

Big ballot mistakes: Mass. rent control, tax cut proposals would backfire – The Boston Globe

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Big ballot mistakes: Mass. rent control, tax cut proposals would backfire – The Boston Globe


Both are appealing. Who doesn’t favor more affordable rents or lower taxes?

But both are bad ideas even though they attempt to address real economic challenges posed by the state’s high cost of living. Like most simple answers to complex problems, they would only make matters worse.

The rent initiative, backed by labor unions, would discourage new construction, which is essential to keeping a lid on lease rates. It would also decrease property values, putting a strain on municipal budgets.

The tax cut, pushed by business groups, would take a large bite out of state revenues, forcing difficult decisions about which services to eliminate.

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Here’s a quick primer.

What it would do: Filed by Homes For All Massachusetts, a coalition of housing groups, the initiative would peg allowable annual rent hikes to the rate of inflation (as measured by the Consumer Price Index), with a cap of 5 percent.

Landlords would be barred from raising rents after a tenant leaves. Owner-occupied buildings with four or fewer units would be exempt, as would new buildings during their first 10 years. Cities and towns couldn’t opt out.

The initiative would “protect tenants from big corporate investors who unreasonably increase rents, while allowing local landlords to earn a reasonable profit and enabling new construction to address housing shortages,” said Carolyn Chou, executive director of Homes for All Massachusetts.

Several big labor unions have endorsed the measure, including the SEIU Massachusetts State Council and the Massachusetts Teachers Association.

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Why it won’t work: Backers designed the proposal to sidestep the obvious flaw of rent control: that it chills new construction. Hence the 10-year exemption for new buildings.

But most apartment projects in Massachusetts take years to finance, permit, and build. Developers calculate their payoff over several decades, and a rent cap waiting at the end of year 10 changes the math.

The deeper problem is high rents in Massachusetts are a supply problem. There are not enough apartments and rental homes.

Not only do rent caps discourage new construction, they may encourage landlords to convert rental units to condos or reduce their investment in existing properties.

Moreover, evidence shows rent control can have unintended consequences.

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A working paper examining St. Paul, Minn.’s 2021 rent control ordinance, which was less severe than the Massachusetts proposal, found that property values fell 6 to 7 percent. The losses were driven largely by lower expected future rents being priced into valuations.

That kind of decline ripples through municipal budgets. Cities facing shrinking tax bases typically respond by raising rates, cutting services, or both.

“It would be catastrophic for the economy,” said Tamara Small, CEO of NAIOP Massachusetts, a commercial real estate trade group.

What it would do: Reduce the state levy on personal income to 4 percent from 5 percent, phased in over three years.

The initiative would put money into people’s hands and make sure the government is not growing faster than residents’ ability to fund growth, according to Jim Stergios, executive director of the Pioneer Institute, a business-supported think tank that filed the measure.

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“This is about making Massachusetts a place where people want to stay,” he said. Pioneer estimates the tax cut would lead to the creation of as many as 48,000 jobs and spur economic growth that would offset the loss of tax revenue within a few years.

According to backers, which also include the Massachusetts High Tech Council and the Massachusetts Competitive Partnership, the net annual revenue impact during the three-year phase-in period would be about $680 million. Following full implementation, state revenue growth would increase as an economic boost from lower taxes kicked in.

Why it won’t work: Tax cuts can modestly boost growth as consumers and small businesses spend the extra money. According to a report by the Center for State Policy Analysis at Tufts University, the median household tax bill would shrink about $1,250 each year.

But the economic boost won’t fully recoup lost revenue. Claims that cuts “pay for themselves” are not supported by the weight of economic evidence.

According to the Tufts report, the tax cut would result in a much bigger hit to state revenues than estimated by the initiative’s supporters: $5.1 billion a year when fully in place, or about 10 percent of total state tax receipts. The state Department of Revenue issued a similar estimate.

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“A cut of this size would more than offset the revenue gains from the millionaires tax and imperil efforts to balance the state budget and sustain core government programs moving forward,” the Tufts report said.

Massachusetts has a real cost-of-living problem, and voters aren’t wrong to demand action. But these ballot proposals offer short-term gratification without fixing the underlying problems.


Larry Edelman can be reached at larry.edelman@globe.com.





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Massachusetts

Snow? Again? Boston area could see up to an inch. – The Boston Globe

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Snow? Again? Boston area could see up to an inch. – The Boston Globe


A potent frontal system will deliver rain and snow across New England Sunday evening and last through at least Monday morning. With a warm front moving east from the system, Boston will stick to rain through Sunday night, while widespread accumulating snow is expected across Northern New England, prompting winter weather alerts for that region. Folks up north will be forced to break out the shovels and snowblowers for hopefully one last time.

Winter storm warnings and winter weather advisories have been issued for portions of Northern New England through early Monday.Boston Globe

But by the time we start heading out the door on Monday, the rain-snow line will have sunk farther south and bring some snowfall into most of Massachusetts, including Greater Boston, along the Mass Pike, and west through the Berkshires. The South Shore and coast should stick to a light wintry mix or rain.

All in all, it looks like Boston could pick up about an inch of snow, mainly during the predawn hours of Monday. If Boston ends up with an inch, it would be the latest date in the season since 2007. Folks across northern Worcester and Berkshire counties may see 1 or 2 inches, while the jackpot totals for this storm are held to extreme Northern New England. Roads will be wet early Monday, so take it slow during the morning commute.

Snow totals across New England through Monday morning. Boston may see a coating to an inch. Roads will be wet, so take it slow during the morning commute. Boston Globe
The rain-snow line will sink south to the Mass Pike early Monday morning.Boston Globe
Sunday will see a system bring snow north and rain south, with lingering snow showers on Monday morning.Boston Globe

Monday afternoon: Blustery, scattered snow showers

Scattered snow showers will linger over most of New England on Monday after the bulk of the precipitation moves offshore by late morning, keeping the day pretty unsettled under mostly cloudy skies.

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Monday afternoon should see scattered light snow showers across New England.Boston Globe

Monday will remain blustery with the storm strengthening as it pulls away from New England. Wind gusts will hover around 20 mph throughout most of the day, not enough for power outage concerns, but enough to feel the wind push through your jacket.

Wind gusts will hover around 20 mph throughout Monday morning.Boston Globe

With cold air settling in behind the passing system, Monday’s highs will be held to the 30s across most of New England. But when you pair the breeze with the cold air, most of the day will feel subfreezing, with wind chills in the 20s from sunrise to sunset.

Wind chills will remain in the mid- to upper 20s all day Monday.Boston Globe
Highs on Monday will hardly reach the mid-30s across Greater Boston.Boston Globe

The sun sets at 7 p.m., Monday as our days get longer.

Greater Boston: Rain Sunday evening. Wintry mix and snow showers in the morning. Lingering flurry possible during the day—highs to the low and mid-30s. Breezy.

Central/Western Mass.: Rain Sunday evening. Snow showers in the morning. A coating to an inch is possible. Isolated snow totals to 2 inches in northern Berkshire County. Highs to the mid and upper 30s region-wide. Flurry chance lingers.

Southeastern Mass.: Light rain Sunday evening. Scattered showers on Monday morning. Highs reach the mid to upper 30s. Breezy.

Cape and Islands: Light steady rain Sunday evening. Scattered showers on Monday morning. Highs to the upper 30s with a breeze.

The forecast across Boston for the next seven days.Boston Globe

Rhode Island: Rain showers on Sunday night. Scattered showers on Monday morning. Mostly cloudy with a breeze as highs reach the mid-30s.

New Hampshire: Snow Sunday night. Scattered snow showers throughout Monday. Highs to the mid and upper 30s.

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Vermont/Maine: Snow on Sunday, scattered snow showers throughout Monday. Highs to the mid and upper 30s.

Connecticut: Steady rain Sunday night, sticking to rain showers Monday morning. Highs to the upper 30s and low 40s.

Sign up here for our daily Globe Weather Forecast that will arrive straight into your inbox bright and early each weekday morning.


Ken Mahan can be reached at ken.mahan@globe.com. Follow him on Instagram @kenmahantheweatherman.





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Massachusetts

Opinion: Our state of hypocrisy over transparency

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Opinion: Our state of hypocrisy over transparency


Keeping open records in the dark is costing taxpayers in Massachusetts

As Sunshine Week comes to a close this week, government officials across the country will once again talk about transparency and accountability. In Massachusetts, however, a series of recent transparency failures shows just how far we have to go here in the Bay State.

For years, watchdog groups, journalists, and ordinary citizens have warned that Massachusetts has one of the weakest public records systems in the country. Deadlines are ignored. Fees are inflated. Enforcement is weak. And when state or local officials would rather keep information hidden, the burden too often falls on private citizens to drag those records into the light.

This is hardly a partisan critique.

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On this point, even groups that rarely agree politically can see the same problem. Journalists have been forced to sue for access. Citizens have waited months or years for information that should have been produced promptly. Transparency should not be a left or right wing issue, it should be the bare minimum in a functioning democracy.

The recent examples are hard to ignore. One police department demanded $1.8 million for license-plate-reader records before that fee was later reduced. In Lexington, a school employee was caught discussing whether production costs could be inflated in hopes that a requester would give up. In Somerville, public officials spent years fighting over parking-permit data.

And then there is the state’s climate litigation against Exxon Mobil.

Massachusetts sued Exxon for allegedly misleading the public about climate change. Whatever one thinks of that lawsuit, the state put honesty, disclosure, and accountability at the center of its case. Yet when Exxon sought records related to Massachusetts’ own climate regulations and enforcement, officials resisted disclosure and triggered a separate legal battle over access to those documents.

What surfaced from that fight was incredibly troubling.

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A regulation adopted under Massachusetts climate law requires state agencies with large vehicle fleets to track emissions and submit annual compliance reports. Those reports were supposed to begin in 2019. But according to sworn testimony from state environmental officials, not a single agency has submitted them. None. Regulators also acknowledged they had not conducted inspections or taken enforcement actions to verify compliance.

So, while Massachusetts was accusing Exxon of climate deception, the state was also fighting a records request that exposed its own failure to comply with one of its own climate rules.

That hypocrisy should concern everyone.

These reporting requirements exist to measure whether the state is actually doing what it says it is doing. If agencies are not filing required reports, and regulators are not enforcing the rule, then the public has every right to ask whether Massachusetts is serious about the climate commitments it promotes so aggressively.

Taxpayers also have every right to ask how much public money is being spent to keep that failure hidden.

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That was the focus of Massachusetts Fiscal Alliance’s recent letter to Energy and Environmental Affairs Secretary Rebecca Tepper. According to state spending records, since last April, EEA paid a Boston law firm over $534,000, which includes $417,620 from “Climate Adaptation and Preparedness” funds and over $117,000 from funds labeled as “Environmental Affairs Administration.” When underlying payment records were requested, both DEP and the Comptroller reportedly said they had no responsive records.

Ironically, the money spent defending the state’s failure to comply with open records laws could have gone toward actual climate compliance or easing the burden on ratepayers and taxpayers. Instead, it appears to have been simply wasted on lawyers to allegedly cover up the state’s non-compliance on its own climate mandates.

That concern is even more urgent because the Healey administration recently estimated that their climate agenda could cost an eye-popping $130 billion by 2050, while an independent study by the Fiscal Alliance Foundation estimated the cost to be over $400B for the state. While Massachusetts clearly cannot afford more burdensome regulations that will drive businesses out of the state, if taxpayers are being asked to shoulder massive new climate costs the public should at least be able to trust that the laws already on the books are being followed.

Massachusetts officials are often quick to demand transparency from corporations and the Trump administration. But transparency cannot be a one-way demand.

Our elected leaders at Beacon Hill must hold themselves to the same standard they impose on the public. It is the foundation of public trust and a problem that Massachusetts has ignored for far too long.

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Paul Diego Craney is the Executive Director of Massachusetts Fiscal Alliance

 



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