In Berkshire, Franklin, and Hampden counties, the average household earns about 70 percent of what MIT estimates is necessary to meet the current cost of living for a home with two working adults and one child. In those counties, Trump’s share of votes in the 2024 election saw an up to 5 percentage point increase as compared with the 2020 election’s numbers.
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The rightward swings are more pronounced when looking at cities within those counties. In Springfield, for example, Trump saw a 7 percentage point increase. The median household income in the city is 50 percent of the required annual income to cover the cost of living, based on the MIT estimate.
James Dupuis, a retired Air Force reservist and commercial truck driver, is one of those Springfield Trump voters. Dupuis and his wife live with their daughter, her boyfriend, and grandchild in an effort to help the young family save enough to move to their own place amid spiking rent prices.
“They’re struggling paycheck to paycheck. I mean, my wife and I are helping out the best we can with all the kids, but it’s tough,” Dupuis said.
Those same economic concerns were echoed across Eastern Massachusetts, where even Boston saw a sizeable increase in Trump votes. Fall River for the first time in nearly 100 years swung majority Republican in the presidential race.
In counties where residents are financially better off and where the median household income has kept pace with the living wage estimates, Trump gained no more than 3 percentage points. Trump lost vote share in only 11 towns across Massachusetts.
Theodoridis said four years ago, many voters reacted to the COVID-19 pandemic and civil unrest in a similar fashion, and voted against the Republican incumbent.
“[In 2020] Trump lost, sort of, a mirror image of this election,” Theodoridis said.
This, coupled with rising tensions over immigration in Massachusetts and other states, paints a fuller picture of voters this election.
To Shari Ariail of Danvers, the election proved that “Democrats [are] out of touch with the nation.”
Ariail, who voted Democrat this year but identifies as an independent, was surprised when she saw Trump flags popping up around town. The median household income in Danvers is roughly $117,000, north of the state’s $96,000 for 2022. Still, Trump’s share of votes there also increased this election, from 39 percent in 2020 to 44 percent this year.
In many ways, economists say the country’s economy is doing well: Unemployment numbers have largely returned to pre-pandemic levels, wages are higher now than they were under the previous Trump administration, and inflation has finally come down after peaking at 8 percent in the earlier years of the pandemic.
Still, many voters have said they haven’t felt those improvements in their wallets.
“Material concerns, broadly speaking, are going to drive people more than [moral or social] concerns,” Theodoridis said. “But we don’t really know exactly what the limits are, and this election gives us a pretty good sense.”
This story was produced by the Globe’s Money, Power, Inequality team, which covers the racial wealth gap in Greater Boston. You can sign up for the newsletter here.
Esmy Jimenez can be reached at esmy.jimenez@globe.com. Follow her @esmyjimenez. Vince can be reached at vince.dixon@globe.com. Follow him @vince_dixon_.