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‘Maine has lost sight of parents’ and children’s right to be together’: The case of Barni A.

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‘Maine has lost sight of parents’ and children’s right to be together’: The case of Barni A.


On July 26, 2019, Maine’s Department of Health and Human Services removed two boys from their parents’ care.

A few months later, during which time the father died, a court ruled that the mother had failed to “parent in a consistent and predictable manner” and did not have “safe or appropriate housing.” A judge agreed with DHHS that the mother had failed to “consistently meet the children’s medical needs,” according to a later court decision.

Those medical needs were substantial for the younger of her two sons. The boy was born premature with a genetic abnormality and was prone to seizures. He was unable to chew or swallow due to “impaired neurological functioning” and required a feeding tube to eat.

Under state and federal law, Maine’s Medicaid program, MaineCare, was supposed to pay for 24/7 private nursing for the child. But DHHS, which oversees both MaineCare and the state’s child protection services, never secured that care.

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Instead, the agency moved to terminate her parental rights.

This January, four and a half years after the removal, the Maine Supreme Judicial Court ruled the mother’s parental rights were unfairly terminated. The high court said the state could not terminate the parental rights of the mother – whom the court refers to as “Barni A.” due to confidentiality rules – based on her inability to care for her son without first providing her with the requisite medical care.

“The Department never provided the child with the services that he is entitled to receive, even though sufficient nursing care for the child may have enabled the mother to eliminate jeopardy and take responsibility for him,” the court wrote.

Julian Richter, president of the Maine Parental Rights Attorneys Association, called it “the most significant decision in the past few decades in Maine child protective law.”

“It finally acknowledges some of the deficits in services that exist in the state,” said Richter, who filed an amicus brief in the case. “I think going forward, courts have to look at whether or not the appropriate services were available to families. … They can’t just terminate parental rights because they didn’t provide services.”

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A DHHS spokesperson declined to comment on the case, citing confidentiality laws.

Child protective cases are generally confidential, but because Maine Supreme Judicial Court decisions are public documents, Barni A.’s case provides a rare glimpse inside the opaque child welfare system.

Child welfare cases typically only enter the public sphere when they reach the criminal justice system, often because of horrific allegations of child abuse. These cases tend to generate criticism of DHHS for not doing enough to remove kids from their parents or caregivers before the violence.

The Barni A. case highlights a different problem: when parents are deprived of their rights and their children unnecessarily.

The most recent federal data shows Maine is investigating and removing children at a rate higher than the national average. It was one of just two states that increased the number of children it took into foster care between 2018 and 2022.

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“Everyone in the child protective bar and the budget writers and decision-makers in the two other branches of government needs a reminder: Termination of parents’ and children’s right to be together is the last resort,” said Rory McNamara, the appellate attorney for Barni A., during oral argument before Maine’s high court.

“This case shows the state of Maine has lost sight of parents’ and children’s right to be together.”

QUESTIONS OF CARE

The court’s published decision provides little information about Barni A.’s youngest son or how the department came into contact with the family, and the legal briefs in the case are confidential. But the oral arguments offer some clues.

Hunter Umphrey, the assistant attorney general representing the department, told the court that when DHHS took Barni A.’s sons into custody in 2019, the younger child was 6 months old and weighed just 7 pounds.

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The court record indicates that Barni A. worked hard to get her children back. She secured stable housing to accommodate the necessary medical equipment, participated in mental health services and attended the children’s medical appointments.

A counselor who treated Barni A. noted that any parent would be overwhelmed by what she faced: “a sick child, the death of her husband and an ongoing pandemic crisis.” As a result, the counselor said Barni A. “never had a full opportunity to learn the child’s medical needs and meet them,” according to the decision.

The youngest son was sent to a foster family after being removed from Barni A.’s care. The family’s mother provided “extraordinary care,” the court wrote. “The resource family can also care for and attend to the child at all hours.” The record seems to indicate the foster family had nursing support in the home, up to 60 hours a week, but not the 24/7 care the child was entitled to receive.

In March 2021, the state returned Barni A.’s older son to her for a trial home placement. It went well enough that, in late September, the department moved to dismiss the older boy from the case, and a judge agreed.

With one son back in her care, Barni A. may have started to hope she was on her way to getting the other child back, too.

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But one week later, the department moved to terminate Barni A.’s parental rights to her youngest son.

‘SOMEBODY SHOULD HAVE DONE IT’

A year and a half passed before the matter went before a court.

During that time, Barni A. was supposed to have visitation rights with the boy, but the court record indicates those visits rarely occurred.

“Visitation time with the child was substantially limited throughout the case,” the court wrote. In multiple instances, many months passed between visits, but not because Barni A. wasn’t making an effort. Initially, visits were canceled due to the pandemic. Later they were canceled because the department could not find nurses to attend the visits, which typically occur at a third-party site.

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Because of the confidential nature of the case, it’s unclear what arguments Barni A.’s attorney made during that time. But the record indicates the attorney never made the case that Barni A. needed the nursing care her child was entitled to before her rights could be terminated – this argument only arose when the case reached the high court.

In oral arguments, Umphrey, the assistant attorney general, argued that Barni A. would not have been able to parent the child regardless of the care provided, in part because “her cognition is very limited.”

(In its decision, the court noted that an initial evaluation “flagged concerns” about the mother’s cognitive function, but the department “never followed up to determine whether the mother has an intellectual disability.” If the department did make that determination, it would have been obligated to give the mother more help, not less, and “provide services to the mother to manage the child’s needs,” the court wrote.)

Umphrey argued that if Barni A. could have been a fit mother with the nursing care in place, “it would have come up at a family team meeting or a judicial review.” Umphrey noted that no one raised the issue over seven judicial reviews – then Justice Joseph Jabar cut him off.

“Somebody should have done it,” Jabar said. “The attorney should have done it, or the state should have done it under their reunification plan.”

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As the court notes, DHHS does not provide nursing care itself but reimburses providers through MaineCare. However, “it is still the Department that sets the rates that directly impact service capacity, and it is still the Department that manages the system and arranges the provision of these services by other entities,” the court wrote.

It’s one of many services that DHHS has struggled to supply in recent years, despite being legally required to do so.

GAPS IN SERVICES

In June 2022, the Department of Justice concluded an investigation in Maine that found the state was failing to provide children’s behavioral health services in the community and at home.

Instead the state was unnecessarily putting children in psychiatric hospitals and residential treatment facilities. The children were “separated from their families and communities” in violation of the Americans with Disabilities Act, the Justice Department wrote in a letter to Gov. Janet Mills and Attorney General Aaron Frey.

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The DOJ found that Maine had lengthy wait lists for behavioral health services, forcing families to “wait hundreds of days to receive services at home,” which meant they often turned to law enforcement and hospitals for help. Children with behavioral health needs were sent “to out-of-state residential facilities all over the country,” the Justice Department noted.

A DHHS spokesperson disagreed it was in violation of the Americans with Disabilities Act. The agency has, however, implemented DOJ recommendations and taken steps to address the gaps in services, including using $20 million in state and federal funds to “to accelerate and intensify implementation of Maine’s comprehensive children’s behavioral health plan.”

“The Department is building upon initiatives launched under the Mills Administration to improve and expand the Children’s Behavioral Health Services continuum of care, with a focus on making appropriate services available to children with behavioral health needs in their communities,” DHHS spokesperson Lindsay Hammes wrote in an email.

When the DOJ announced its findings in June 2022, 753 children were waiting for home and community-based services, according to the DHHS children’s behavioral health data dashboard. That number declined to 509 by March 2024, the most recent month with available data.

The office in charge of children’s behavioral health needs was the Office of Child and Family Services, which also investigates child protection cases, initiates child removals and moves to terminate parental rights.

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In January, DHHS announced a restructuring that moved children’s behavioral services into the Office of Behavioral Health.

DHHS is continuing negotiations with the Department of Justice. Maine is one of 21 states the department has found in violation of Olmstead v. L.C., a 1999 Supreme Court ruling that held that segregating disabled people in institutions violates the Americans with Disabilities Act because they have a right to live and receive services in their communities.

“As far as I know, there are no states that are managing the entire system appropriately,” said Diane Smith Howard of the National Disability Rights Network.

A SYSTEMWIDE FAILURE

Not only did DHHS never provide the services that Barni A.’s son was entitled to receive, the court record indicates the agency didn’t even try.

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The department made “vague references” to staffing shortages related to the pandemic, but “there is nothing indicating that the Department made any attempt to secure 24/7 nursing care, or anything close to it, for the child,” the court wrote. “Inadequate resources do not excuse a state’s obligation to provide benefits under Medicaid.”

In February 2023, a three-day judicial review was held on the department’s petition to terminate Barni A.’s right to parent her younger son. On March 1, the court agreed with the department and ruled her unfit.

A litany of actors in the child welfare system failed to argue the state had to provide services before removal.

This indicates a systemwide failure, said Lauren Wille, legal director of Disability Rights Maine, which filed an amicus brief in the case.

“You’re talking about judges, guardians ad litem, the attorney general’s office, department caseworkers, all of these people and it doesn’t seem like anyone raised this as a problem,” Wille said. “It really signified for us the real need for education for all of those stakeholders when it comes to people, whether it’s parents or children, who have disabilities.”

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The Maine Supreme Judicial Court’s decision is not the end of the road for Barni A. The high court sent the case back to the district court to reconsider the case in light of its ruling.

“We encourage the court, the mother, and the Department to explore alternatives to termination that do not put the child at risk but that recognize the Department’s obligation,” the court wrote.

For Jabar, the former Maine Supreme Judicial Court justice who authored the court’s decision, what’s striking about the case is that instead of attempting to secure nursing services for the child, the state infringed upon Barni A.’s constitutional rights.

“Before the constitutional right to parent is taken away, there are certain steps that have to be taken. And one of them is to provide services to the parent,” Jabar told The Maine Monitor.

“In some cases, parents are not able to take care of a child, even with medical services,” he added. “But in this case, the mother was never given a chance.”

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This story was originally published by The Maine Monitor, a nonprofit and nonpartisan news organization. To get regular coverage from the Monitor, sign up for a free Monitor newsletter here.


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AI comes with dangers and opportunities. How is Maine responding?

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AI comes with dangers and opportunities. How is Maine responding?


People watch from the gallery during a 2026 House of Representatives session at the Maine State House in Augusta. (Joe Phelan/Staff Photographer)

The ad begins with a woman standing in a department store who sort of looks like Gov. Janet Mills, but not quite.

“Introducing the Janet Mills collection, featuring a confusing choice that forces girls to compete against biological males,” the female narrator says over banal instrumental music as the video cuts to “Mills” holding a stopwatch by an outdoor track.

The Mills collection comes “with a no-parent-permission-required estrogen kit,” the narrator continues, as the imposter holds a kit of syringes while patting a boy’s hair, which seems suspiciously stiff. The commercial ends with a real picture of the governor.

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As far as ads generated by artificial intelligence go, the one from the National Republican Senatorial Committee is not very convincing. But the commercial serves as a reminder about how the emerging technology is being integrated into political campaigns and other areas of life in Maine.

If state Democratic leaders get their way, AI-generated ads like this won’t be allowed in Maine without a disclaimer.

As AI technology rapidly improves, state policymakers are weighing a variety of measures that could affect how Mainers interact with it. They are taking a two-pronged approach to protect people, especially children, from potential harms — while also preparing for the possible benefits.

Gov. Janet Mills acknowledges the Maine State Legislature as she begins her final State of the State Address in the House Chamber in Augusta on Jan. 27 (Daryn Slover/Staff Photographer)

The technology comes in the form of virtual personal assistants, internet search results and targeted advertising by businesses. It’s being used by governments for things ranging from traffic signals to budgets and policymaking to facial recognition to surveillance.

Mills said in a written statement that AI could help improve lives, drive economic growth and solve complex problems, but that it must be used in a “prudent, responsible, and ethical manner.”

“As AI becomes more prevalent in our society, its considerable promise must be balanced against harms — known and unforeseen — that can emerge from its widespread use,” she said. “It’s clear we’re only at the beginning of AI’s evolution.”

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The governor has proposed $6.7 million in her supplemental budget to begin implementing some of the recommendations of a 21-member task force she created last year to study the issue.

Her proposal, which is being reviewed by lawmakers, would create a statewide AI literacy campaign; fund local and state partnerships to help municipalities use the technology and offer grants to support job training programs to keep Maine’s workforce competitive and productive in AI-enabled workplaces, among other things.

Lawmakers, meanwhile, are considering bills to address potential harms. In a rare bipartisan move, Republicans and Democrats voted unanimously last month in support of a bill (LD 524) making AI-generated child sex abuse material illegal. But that bill must receive about $55,000 before it can be sent to the governor.

They are also considering bills:

  • To require political ads in state and local elections to include a disclosure when AI-generated or altered material is used (LD 517).
  • To stop human-like chatbots or social AI companions from interacting with children (LD 2162).
  • And to regulate how the technology is used in mental health settings (LD 2082).

Last year, lawmakers passed a measure including AI-generated images in the state’s ban on so-called “revenge porn,” and one requiring companies to inform consumers when they’re interacting with an AI assistant. Mills signed both into law.

Other proposals regulating AI use in medical and dental insurance claims and in setting rents died in committees. So did one prohibiting the use of AI in “dynamic pricing,” in which businesses use the technology to offer different real-time prices to different consumers.

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Over 1,000 measures focusing on artificial intelligence were debated in state capitols last year, the National Conference of State Legislatures said.

Some states, such as Colorado and California, are taking steps to enact a broad regulatory framework for AI. California has provisions preventing discrimination in the workplace and requiring watermarks on AI content and transparency around data used to produce reports.

But Maine lawmakers are seeking to address potential harms on a case-by-case basis — at least for now.

Rep. Amy Kuhn. D-Falmouth, is leading House Democratic efforts to regulate artificial intelligence. (Joe Phelan/Staff Photographer)

“I think of it as almost a whack-a-mole type of approach where we are developing legislation that very narrowly addresses specific harms of AI,” said Rep. Amy Kuhn, D-Falmouth, who is taking the lead for House Democrats.

“That sort of overarching regulatory framework just feels a little premature for Maine to me right now. I want to see that work its way through the states and let some other states take a swing before we get in there.”

Republicans, however, are worried about overregulation.

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Rep. Jennifer Poirier, R-Skowhegan, supports protecting children from artificial intelligence caused by AI, but thinks adults need to use common sense. (Joe Phelan/Staff Photographer)

Rep. Jennifer Poirier, R-Skowhegan, said her caucus is focused on protecting children from potential harms associated with AI, but she worries that regulation will never keep up with AI’s evolution.

“You can’t always legislate your way out of everything,” Poirier said. “If you have a minor that has access to AI, and it can be used to harm them in any way, it’s our responsibility as adults to keep them safe. … But we are adults, and we need to use our own common sense.”

A recent poll from Pan Atlantic Research showed widespread concern about AI, with 66% of the 810 Mainers surveyed saying they’re mostly concerned about the potential problems of AI, while 25% were mostly optimistic.

More advanced programs can generate text, analyze reports and create increasingly lifelike images and videos. A recent AI video purporting to show Tom Cruise and Brad Pitt throwing down over the death of convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein raised alarm bells in Hollywood over its realism.

Other programs have been used by businesses in ways critics say can be exploitative. Consumer Reports recently published a story about how the online grocery shopping service Instacart used AI to charge certain customers higher prices — up to 23% more — if they were flagged as having higher incomes. Instacart reportedly stopped offering stores this option for “surveillance pricing” after the story was published in December.

A lobbying effort is underway to promote AI regulation in Maine. The “Protect What’s Human” campaign launched a website earlier this year, and a spokesperson said they have invested about $210,000 in ads supporting AI regulations. The commercials are targeting Republicans voters in the Bangor and Portland regions. The group is planning to spend another $110,000 on TV, streaming services, social media and podcasts.

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Other proposals passed by the Legislature reflect lawmakers’ attempts to get ahead of the AI issue in indirect ways.

The House and Senate have each recently passed a strict data privacy law that would greatly restrict the amount of data — a person’s location, browsing and shopping histories and biometric information, for example— that companies can collect, store and sell. One of the main arguments was that such data can be used to train AI models. However, the chambers will have to iron out the differences between their two versions of the measure, LD 1822, if it is to become law.

And local residents are beginning to grapple with proposed data centers, which have been controversial in other parts of the county because they consume large amounts of water. This is especially true for centers powering AI.

Lawmakers are considering a bill, LD 307, to create a moratorium on such centers and establish a state council to study and review the impact of building them in Maine.

Construction is underway on a data center in Aroostook County, while another is being proposed in Sanford. Others have been proposed in Wiscasset and Lewiston, but did not move forward.

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“This whole world is shifting to computer everything,” Poirier said, “and it’s important that we keep up with the times on that.”



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Should Maine allow associate dentists without doctoral degrees? Dentists don’t think so

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Should Maine allow associate dentists without doctoral degrees? Dentists don’t think so


Bruce Tibbetts, of Mt. Vernon, gets a cracked tooth fixed at a free dental clinic at Northwoods Dental in Skowhegan in 2018. The two bills before the Legislature come as access to Maine dentists has declined. (Michael G. Seamans/Staff Photographer)

Lawmakers are considering two bills that attempt to increase access to dental care in Maine by studying ways to establish specialist residency programs in the state and creating a new license tier with lower educational requirements, a measure that multiple dentists opposed.

LD 2206 would establish an associate dentist license, which would allow a dentist without the equivalent of a U.S. doctoral degree in dentistry — such as a dentist with a bachelor’s degree who trained outside of the U.S. — to practice dentistry under supervision of a licensed dentist. 

Under this new license, associate dentists would have a pathway to full licensure if they were in good standing for six consecutive years. There is currently a pathway for foreign-trained dentists to work in Maine, but it requires additional education.

The bill comes as access to Maine dentists has declined. The ranks of dentists decreased from 590 in 2019 to 530 in 2023. Most children in Maine don’t get an annual checkup and cleaning from a dentist, according to a study last year from the University of Southern Maine Muskie School of Public Service and Catherine E. Cutler Institute.

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Penobscot Community Health Care, Maine’s largest federally qualified health center, brought the issue to lawmakers after two “very highly qualified” dentists the center hoped to hire were denied licensure by the Maine Board of Dental Practice because they didn’t meet current educational equivalency requirements.

The health center estimated those dentists could have provided 8,000 appointments with patients, according to testimony from Lori Dwyer, president and CEO of Penobscot Community Health Care.

Penobscot Community Health Care, which said it operates the largest dental center in Maine and has a network of 51 workspaces for dental care, emphasized that federally qualified health centers are subject to strict federal oversight, reporting requirements and high standards.

“[Penobscot Community Health Care] would never support a pathway that compromises safety, and they would never hire a clinician that would provide unsafe treatment to patients,” Dwyer wrote in testimony that was read on her behalf to the Legislature’s Health Coverage, Insurance and Financial Services committee.

Northern Light Health also submitted testimony in support, saying the bill would help address workforce shortages and reduce emergency room visits for dental conditions.

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“Like most hospitals in Maine, Northern Light Health members are challenged with inappropriate utilization of our emergency rooms by individuals seeking care for dental/tooth pain,” Lisa Harvey-McPherson, vice president of government relations, wrote in her testimony. “Patients generally present with cracked teeth, abscesses, dental caries or tooth eruptions, leading to thousands of emergency room claims for dental related diagnosis codes each year.”

Multiple dentists and dentistry representatives testified against the bill, arguing that there are existing pathways for foreign-trained dentists and that lower standards could set up a two-tiered system in which poorer and more rural residents receive care from dentists with less training.

Dr. Kailee Jorgenson, a licensed dentist who is the clinical director at Portland-based Mainely Teeth and president of the Maine Oral Health Centers Alliance, said the patients most likely to receive care under the proposed pathway are MaineCare recipients, rural residents and children. These patients often have the most complex needs, she said.

“Maine should not create one standard of dentistry for those with resources and another for those without,” Jorgenson told the committee.

Jorgenson and others who testified against the measure said they instead support a second bill, LD 2209, which would study how to expand access to dental care.

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LD 2209 would direct the Maine Department of Health and Human Services to consider how to establish dental specialist residency programs in Maine, including for pediatric dentists, oral surgeons and orthodontists. The bill would also require the department to study ways to create a hub-and-spoke model to expand access to services across the state.

“We have a shortage of specialists in Maine, and it doesn’t matter how you’re trying to pay,” said Therese Cahill, executive director of the Maine Dental Association, which represents dentists. “To see an oral surgeon, to see a periodontist, to see an orthodontist, or a pediatric dentist, you’re waiting.”

No one spoke against the bill or submitted testimony in opposition.

The committee will consider both bills during upcoming work sessions when it will decide whether to forward them to the full Legislature. The work sessions had not been scheduled as of Wednesday.

This story was originally published by The Maine Monitor, a nonprofit and nonpartisan news organization. To get regular coverage from The Monitor, sign up for a free Monitor newsletter here.

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Political polling in Maine is big news. I’m urging caution. | Opinion

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Political polling in Maine is big news. I’m urging caution. | Opinion


Nicholas Jacobs is the Goldfarb Family Distinguished Chair in American Government at Colby College, where he also serves as the inaugural director of the Bram Public Policy Lab. 

I love a good poll as much as the next person.

It’s why I’ve relied on them throughout my research and teaching. Surveys offer a rare glimpse into attitudes that are otherwise difficult to observe, and in competitive races they can help orient both journalists and voters to what appears to be unfolding. And this Senate race in Maine — it is competitive. I’m itching for clarity.

Polls matter beyond our general academic curiosity. They actually shape the race and our expectations. The findings out of the University of New Hampshire about Graham Platner’s meteoric rise in the Democratic primary have already begun to shape how observers are talking about the Senate race, subtly altering expectations about competitiveness and early advantage. No doubt, donations will follow the topline finding.

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But a word of caution is warranted. Polling in Maine is unusually difficult. And yes, you can simply refuse to “trust the polls,” but let me also suggest you don’t have to even go that far: just look at what the pollsters are and are not telling you each time they report results.

Most anyone who cares about polling results knows a few things to check, none more important than the all important margin of error. It offers a useful reminder that polls estimate rather than measure, and that even well-executed surveys contain uncertainty.

Try telling me who’s ahead with just a few dozen people and you’ll see a margin of error in the double-digits; everyone knows know you might as well stop reading. But a small margin of error only reflects precision, not representativeness — and a survey can be statistically tidy while still overlooking meaningful variation within the electorate.

You can get a representative snapshot of what Maine, on average, thinks with a modest sample — about 1,000 of our neighbors. Yet that is rarely what readers or campaigns are focused on in moments like this. We are not just asking what “Maine” thinks. We are asking what primary voters, independents or late-deciding voters think. And that is where interpretation becomes harder.

As attention shifts to those subsamples, the number of respondents quickly shrinks and the margin of error widens. That mechanical inflation is familiar and usually reported. What is discussed far less is whether those smaller groups meaningfully reflect the diversity of voters they are meant to represent — geographically, politically and in terms of engagement with the race. Because, as is often the case, the initial goal was not to survey, say, young people in Maine, but all people in Maine. That distinction creates problems.

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When looking at subsamples, the relevant question is not simply how large the margin of error becomes, but how much confidence we should have that the subsample itself captures the electorate we care about. One way researchers evaluate this is by looking beyond sample size to how heavily responses must be weighted and adjusted to reflect that diversity — a process captured in what survey methodologists call “design effects.”

When those adjustments are substantial, the survey contains less independent information than the respondent count suggests, meaning apparent precision can mask deeper uncertainty about how accurate the estimates really are.

Again, the latest UNH survey in Maine offers a useful illustration.

Buried in the methodology statement, the researchers report a design effect of 2.3 and note that they did not adjust their margins of error for what is a pretty major acknowledgement that their sample, however large, needed some help in representing the broader Maine electorate. Put plainly, a design effect of 2.3 means those 1,120 likely voters function statistically more like a sample of about 500 — making the apparent precision of the results considerably overstated.

If the effective sample size is cut substantially, the true uncertainty around candidate support widens. What was a margin of error of about ±2.9 grows quick, to ±4.5. Of course, this might mean that Platner’s lead over Collins in the general election is higher than what the poll estimated, but it also means that, in this case, his lead could be as small as two points.

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Specific to the one finding that is drawing substantial media attention, it also means that Platner’s “advantage” among Maine independents is a statistical fantasy. That is because once you start looking at sub-samples, the “penalty” that a design effect has on a poll’s margin of error is even greater.

To begin with, there are only about 164 independents represented in the full sample — a testament to the large design effect, because the poll seems to have captured way more partisans than proportionally exist in the state. The baseline margin of error for that group, to begin with, is ±7.

And then once weighting and design effects are taken into account, the effective number of independent respondents becomes smaller still — in this case, giving us estimates that have an equal chance of being 12 points higher (Platner leads with 59% of independents!) or 12 points lower (Collins has a 15 point advantage!). We just don’t know.

Now, I realize this may sound like unwelcome news to those eager to read the poll as
confirmation of a decisive shift in the race. I look forward to the emails I will receive telling me my “academic caution” is masquerading as excuse-making for Sen. Collins.

But, if anything, the statistically rigorous takeaway remains quite interesting. The same issue with independents I describe above (an ever-shrinking sample size) is just as true for analyzing the subset of Democratic primary voters. Even after accounting for the design effect here, functionally inflating the margin of error on the Democratic primary, Platner’s lead is unequivocal.

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Even the most generous read, given that uncertainty, gives Mills just about a third of Democratic primary voters in the survey. The margin may be less precise, and there are still questions about whether the poll captured the broad swath of likely voters, but the signal is unmistakable: he is a credible and competitive challenger.

Statistical caution does not weaken that conclusion, even as it tempers claims of an inevitable victory for one candidate or party.

Platner’s emergence is real. So is the uncertainty surrounding everything beyond it. Acknowledging that uncertainty, though, is the difference between careful interpretation and wishful thinking. And when uncertainty is translated into premature conclusions, the narrative can begin to influence the election before voters do.



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