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Harris replacing Biden solidifies traditional blue states, gives Dems a better national outlook

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Harris replacing Biden solidifies traditional blue states, gives Dems a better national outlook

Vice President Kamala Harris being elevated to the top of the Democratic ticket has helped the party regain more steady control of at least one traditional blue state and may have also helped improve the national outlook.

Harris leads former President Trump 53-39 among likely voters in the state of New York, according to a Siena College Research Institute poll released Tuesday.

While the 14-point lead would typically be considered narrow in a state that Democratic presidential nominees have won by as much as 30 points in recent cycles, it paints an improving picture over the prospects of President Biden, who had held leads of only 8 to 10 points in previous versions of the Siena College poll.

KAMALA HARRIS HOLDING RALLY IN PENNSYLVANIA TO INTRODUCE RUNNING MATE AFTER SECURING DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION

Vice President Kamala Harris (Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)

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“The landscape has changed since the last Siena College poll. The change at the top of the Democratic ticket has had a noticeable, while not dramatic, effect on the horserace. Harris has the support of 86% of Democrats, up from the 75% support Biden had in June. And while independent voters support Trump over Harris 47-40%, they supported Trump over Biden 45-28%,” Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg said in a poll press release. “Harris leads with Black voters 81-11%, up from Biden’s 59-29% lead in June.”

Harris is helped by having better approval numbers in the solidly blue state compared to both Biden and Trump, with Harris coming in at a 53% favorable, while 43% of respondents view the vice president unfavorably. Trump has only garnered favorability ratings hovering between 37% to 39% in the poll, while Biden’s June rating was underwater at 42-53 in June.

“Among all the presidential candidates that are likely to be on New York’s ballot, Harris is the only one with a positive favorability rating,” Greenberg said. “And looking at the race if it is a six-way election, Harris’ lead falls slightly from 14 points to 12 points. At the moment, 11% of voters – and 19% of independents – say they will vote for a minor party candidate.”

Former President Trump (Sean Rayford/Getty Images)

IT’S OFFICIAL: VICE PRESIDENT KAMALA HARRIS FORMALLY WINS THE DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION

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The poll in the solidly blue state, which has not gone to a Republican candidate since Ronald Reagan’s landslide win in 1984, comes as Harris has closed on Trump in national polls since taking over for Biden at the top of the ticket.

According to the Real Clear Politics polling average on Tuesday, Harris now holds a slim lead nationally over Trump. That lead represents a dramatic shift over the outlook the day before Biden dropped out of the race, when Trump held a three-point lead over the incumbent president.

Betting markets have also tightened significantly since Biden’s decision to drop out of the race, with the Real Clear Politics Betting Average showing Trump with a 52% chance to win the race and Harris with a 46.3% chance.

President Biden speaks during a campaign event in Philadelphia on April 18, 2024. (Hannah Beier/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

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That number compares favorably to the betting odds a week before Biden’s decision to drop out, when Trump held a 66.2% chance compared to Biden’s 18% and Harris’ 7.3%.

The Siena College Research Institute poll was conducted between July 28 and Aug. 1, surveying 1,199 likely voters in New York and having a margin of error of +/- 4.0 percentage points.

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Boston, MA

Boston’s new city council president talks about election and upcoming term

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Boston’s new city council president talks about election and upcoming term


The Boston City Council is setting out on a new two-year term with a new council president at the helm.

City Councilor Liz Breadon, who represents District 9, won the gavel on a 7-6 contested vote, cobbling together her candidacy just hours before the council was set to vote.

“An opportunity presented itself and I took it,” Breadon said. “We’re in a very critical time, given politics, and I really feel that in this moment, we need to set steady leadership, and really to bring the council together.”

The process apparently including backroom conversations and late-night meetings as City Councilors Gabriella Coletta Zapata and Brian Worrell both pushed to become the next council president.

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Breadon spoke on why support waned for her two colleagues.

“I think they had support that was moving,” said Breadon. “It was moving back and forward, it hadn’t solidified solidly in one place. There’s a lot of uncertainty in the moment.”

Political commentator Sue O’Connell talks about the last-minute maneuvering before the upset vote and what it says about Mayor Michelle Wu’s influence.

Some speculated that Mayor Michelle Wu’s administration was lobbying for a compromise candidate after Coletta Zapata dropped out of the race. Breadon disputes the mayor’s involvement.

“I would say not,” said Breadon. “I wasn’t in conversation with the mayor about any of this.”

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Beyond the election, Breadon took a look ahead to how she will lead the body. Controversy has been known to crop up at City Hall, most recently when former District 7 Councilor Tania Fernandes Anderson pleaded guilty to federal corruption charges tied to a kickback scheme involving taxpayer dollars.

Breadon said it’s critical to stay calm and allow the facts to come out in those situations.

“I feel that it’s very important to be very deliberative in how we handle these things and not to sort of shoot from the hip and have a knee-jerk reaction to what’s happening,” said Breadon.

Tune in Sunday at 9:30 am for our extended @Issue Sitdown with Breadon, when we dig deeper into how her candidacy came together, the priorities she’ll pursue in the role and which colleagues she’ll place in key council positions.

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Pittsburg, PA

O’Connor vows Pittsburgh won’t cooperate with ICE

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O’Connor vows Pittsburgh won’t cooperate with ICE


Days after a U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement Officer fatally shot a woman in Minneapolis, Pittsburgh Mayor Corey O’Connor reaffirmed that he will not cooperate with ICE.

Former Mayor Ed Gainey had taken the same position.

“My stance never changed,” O’Connor told TribLive on Friday. “We’re not going to cooperate.”

O’Connor said the same thing on the campaign trail, promising his administration would not partner with ICE.

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“My priority is to turn the city around and help it grow,” O’Connor said. “For us, it’s got to be focusing on public safety in the city of Pittsburgh.”

President Donald Trump has sent a surge of federal officers into Minneapolis, where tensions have escalated sharply.

O’Connor said he had spoken this week with Cleveland Mayor Justin Bibb, who heads the Democratic Mayors Association. The group has condemned ICE’s actions in the wake of Wednesday’s fatal encounter in Minneapolis, where an ICE officer shot and killed 37-year-old Nicole Macklin Good, a U.S. citizen described as a poet and mother.

“Mayors are on the ground every day working to keep our communities safe,” the association said in a statement Thursday. “If Trump were serious about public safety, he would work with our cities, not against them. If he were serious, he would stop spreading propaganda and lies, and end the fear, the force, and the federal overreach.”

Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey has come out strongly against the Trump administration and ICE, penning an op-ed piece for the New York Times with the headline, “I’m the Mayor of Minneapolis. Trump Is Lying to You.”

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Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem said an ICE officer shot Good in self-defense. Noem described the incident as “domestic terrorism” carried out against ICE officers and claimed Good tried to “run them over and rammed them with her vehicle.”

The circumstances of the incident are in dispute.

In December, ICE agents were involved in a scuffle in Pittsburgh’s Mount Washington neighborhood as they arrested a Latino man.

According to neighbors, two unmarked vehicles sandwiched a white Tacoma in the 400 block of Norton Street, broke the driver’s side window, pulled a man from the vehicle and got into a physical altercation. Pepper spray was deployed and seemed to get in the eyes of both the man being detained and at least one immigration agent.

At least some of the officers on the scene in that incident belong to ICE.

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They targeted the man, Darwin Alexander Davila-Perez, a Nicaraguan national, for claiming to be a U.S. citizen while trying to buy a gun, according to court papers.



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Connecticut

New Connecticut economic data: “It takes job seekers longer”

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New Connecticut economic data: “It takes job seekers longer”


The U.S. economy added fewer jobs than expected in December, capping what economists say was the weakest year for job creation since 2009, aside from 2020.

Data from October shows about 73,000 job openings in Connecticut, according to the Connecticut Business and Industry Association. The state’s unemployment rate stands at about 4%, which is historically low.

Here is the topline information from Connecticut’s October and November jobs report released this week, according to the state’s Labor Department (data was delayed due to the government shutdown):

  • Overall, Connecticut job growth is +1,800 from November 2024 to November 2025.
  • Private sector payrolls were up 1,900 in November after a 900 decline in October.
  • Health Care & Social Assistance is up 1,700 in November and recovered September losses.
  • Construction is at the highest level since August 2008, a trend expected to continue with infrastructure and housing initiatives.
  • Retail continues a slow downward trajectory. The sector was up 200 jobs in November, not enough to offset September and October losses.
  • Initial unemployment claims are just under 30,000, slightly higher than last year at this time when they were around 25,000.

In a press release, Connecticut Department of Labor Commissioner Danté Bartolomeo said: “After several years of strong job growth that created a job seekers’ market, the economy is now more competitive—it takes job seekers longer to find employment than it has in the recent past.”

Experts say the experience of finding a job can be very different for job seekers.

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Dustin Nord, director of the CBIA Foundation for Economic Growth and Opportunity, said the state may be seeing what economists call frictional unemployment.

“We’re not seeing huge changes in hiring and quits,” Nord said, adding that it’s possible people who are losing positions are not necessarily seeing positions open in the field that they’re losing their job from.

Although unemployment remains relatively low, Nord said recent trends raise concerns about the direction of the labor market.

“There’s not that many people on the sidelines, but I’d say the trends are definitely not moving in the right direction,” Nord said.

Connecticut faces longer‑term workforce challenges. The state’s labor force has declined by about 19,600 people since January, according to the new data.

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“Federal immigration policies may impact these numbers. Connecticut employers rely on an immigrant workforce to offset retirements in Connecticut’s aging workforce and the state’s low birthrate; 23% of Connecticut workers are born outside of the U.S.,” the state’s Department of Labor said.

Connecticut’s labor force participation rate of 64% is higher than the national rate of 62.5%, the Department of Labor said.

The CBIA said since the COVID‑19 pandemic, Connecticut’s labor force has grown just 0.2%, compared with 4.3% growth nationwide.

That gap is occurring even as wages rise. Average weekly earnings in Connecticut are up 5.4% since November 2024, outpacing inflation.

Still, the CBIA says those gains reinforce the need to address affordability across the state.

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“If we take the right steps, especially over the next six months, to try to find ways to make it more affordable,” Nord said. “I think there’s no reason we can’t continue to see, at least steady economic activity in the state.”

Nord said those steps include addressing costs tied to housing, energy and childcare.

Overall, the data suggests Connecticut’s job growth has been largely stagnant. Looking ahead, what happens in 2026 will depend both on state‑level policy decisions and broader national economic trends.

Patrick Flaherty, director of research at the Connecticut Department of Labor, said in a review of the data that recent numbers suggest the pace of growth could continue, but at a slower rate.

“The November increase suggests modest job growth that Connecticut’s labor market has shown could continue into 2026, although at a slower pace, as long as the nation avoids a downturn,” Flaherty said.

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See the state report here. Read the CBIA’s analysis here.



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