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Missouri vs. Boston College score prediction by expert football model

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Missouri vs. Boston College score prediction by expert football model


One of two games featuring ranked teams on the same field this week finds No. 6 Missouri playing host to newly-ranked No. 24 Boston College in this weekend’s Week 3 NCAA football action.

The last time we saw this SEC vs. ACC matchup was three years ago in Chestnut Hill, Mass., as the Eagles beat Mizzou by a touchdown in overtime.

But that was when Missouri was still looking for its identity under head coach Eli Drinkwitz, a process that has taken leaps and bounds after winning 11 games and the Cotton Bowl last season.

While the Tigers have yet to allow a point in two games this season, the Eagles will present a decidedly more difficult challenge: BC ranks 10th in scoring defense, 26th in scoring offense, and is 9th nationally by rushing for 285 yards per game on average.

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Boston College quarterback Thomas Castellanos hasn’t put the ball in the air often, just 26 times so far, but the dual threat player is hitting 73 percent of his throws with 6 touchdowns and no interceptions.

What do the analytics project for the matchup? Let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Boston College and Missouri compare in this Week 3 college football game.

The simulations currently favor the home team, and by an apparently generous margin.

SP+ predicts that Missouri will defeat Boston College by a projected score of 39 to 16 and to win the game by an expected 22.4 points.

The model gives Mizzou a strong 92 percent chance to win the game outright.

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SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 47-44 against the spread with a 51.6 win percentage.

Missouri is a 16.5 point favorite against Boston College, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, which set the total at 53.5 points for the game.

FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for Missouri at -720 to win outright and for Boston College at +490.

If you’re using this projection to bet on the game, you should take…

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Other analytical models also favor the Tigers to win out at home.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Missouri comes out the expected winner in 76.6 percent of the computer’s simulations, while Boston College wins the game in the remaining 23.4 percent of sims.

But the index forecasts a slightly closer game, as Missouri is projected to be 11.3 points better than Boston College on the same field, not enough to cover this spread.

Missouri is projected to win 9 games this season and is sixth among SEC teams with a 39.8 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff.

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Boston College will win 8.3 games this year, by the model’s calculations, with a 17.5 percent shot at the 12-team playoff, sitting fourth among ACC teams this week.

When: Sat., Sept. 14
Time: 12:45 p.m. Eastern
TV: SEC Network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks



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Boston, MA

Red Sox rotation contender strikes out four in dominant outing

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Red Sox rotation contender strikes out four in dominant outing


FORT MYERS, Fla. — Johan Oviedo’s first outing of the spring last week didn’t go great, as the right-hander walked three over 1 2/3 innings in a performance manager Alex Cora described as “erratic.”

His second outing on Monday went much better.



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Monster effort from Neemias Queta helps pave the way for Celtics in win over 76ers – The Boston Globe

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Monster effort from Neemias Queta helps pave the way for Celtics in win over 76ers – The Boston Globe


Queta has been a revelation for the Celtics this season and helped them improbably surge into second place in the Eastern Conference. But it is unlikely he or his team envisioned nights like Sunday, when he crafted the best game of his career to propel Boston to a 114-98 win over the 76ers at TD Garden, its 11th in 13 games.

The 26-year-old center finished with 27 points and 17 rebounds and received ‘MVP’ chants several times in the fourth quarter.

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“I thought he’s had great ownership and responsibility to what it calls for to be a starting center for the Celtics, and he’s got to continue to get better,” Mazzulla said. “He works at it. He cares. So, it’s a credit to him.”

The Celtics, who entered the night averaging 17.1 second-chance points per game, poured in 30 Sunday, with Queta leading the charge. With 76ers center Andre Drummond often playing up and trying to congest the lanes for Boston’s talented ballhandlers, Queta forcefully and quickly found space around the rim.

“We just gave him the ball and trusted him to make the right decision every time, and he was able to get it going,” forward Jaylen Brown said. “He had some nice up-and-unders in the seam and stuff like that that helped propel us to a win.”

Brown added 27 points, 8 rebounds, and 8 assists for Boston.

Tyrese Maxey had 33 points to lead the 76ers, but they did not come easily. The All-Star guard played 43 minutes and made just 12 of 34 shots. Philadelphia was without star center Joel Embiid (oblique).

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“He didn’t have a ton of layups, didn’t have a ton of free throws,” Mazzulla said of Maxey. “I thought he obviously missed some good shots, but when you have the ball as much as he did, I thought we did a really good job just being disciplined, defending without fouling, keeping him out of transition.”

The Celtics improved to 40-20, with just 22 games remaining in the regular season. After the game, there was a visible reminder of what could be on the way.

Star forward Jayson Tatum, who could be nearing a return from last May’s Achilles injury, sat at his locker and laughed and joked with team staffers. He also posted the latest clip from the NBC docuseries about his comeback on his social media accounts.

Jayson Tatum, who has yet to play this season, liked what he saw from the Celtics bench.Danielle Parhizkaran/Globe Staff

For now, of course, the Celtics continue to plow forward without him. On Sunday, Boston quickly wiped away an early 10-point deficit behind Queta. He registered five offensive rebounds in the opening period, and flashed an unusual amount of offensive creativity during his dominant second quarter.

During one stretch, he danced through the lane for a basket, converted a putback, then dazzled the crowd by trailing a fast break, taking a pass from Brown, and converting an acrobatic scoop shot that gave Boston a 40-35 lead.

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“We don’t want him to get too carried away with some of those,” Brown said, smiling. “But he was converting them tonight and it looked good.”

Queta reminded everyone that much of his value comes from his defensive work when he swatted a Kelly Oubre Jr. shot out of bounds, and he received a rare standing ovation when he checked out moments later.

Neemias Queta’s performance put a smile on Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla.Danielle Parhizkaran/Globe Staff

Finally, after a well-executed two-for-one opportunity, Brown found Baylor Scheierman, who played with a splint on his broken left thumb, in the right corner; he hit a buzzer-beating 3-pointer that gave Boston a 62-50 lead at the break. Scheierman gave a high thumbs-up with his bandaged digit.

The Celtics led by 16 early in the third quarter, but the 76ers continued to push back. Three-pointers in the final minute by Quentin Grimes and Maxey made it 89-83 at the start of the fourth.

The 76ers trailed by 6 with four minutes left in the fourth quarter but missed their next five shots, any one of which could have put real pressure on Boston.

With 2:56 left, Queta converted a layup as he was fouled, stretching the lead back to 105-97. He received ‘MVP’ chants for the second time in the quarter when he went to the foul line. Then, with 1:56 left, he put an exclamation point on his memorable night by grabbing yet another offensive rebound and throwing down a two-handed dunk that made it 109-98.

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“I thought Neemi matched and exceeded the [76ers] physicality,” Mazzulla said.

Jaylen Brown has become the leader of the Celtics while Tatum has been away. Will Tatum returning cause locker-room drama?

Adam Himmelsbach can be reached at adam.himmelsbach@globe.com. Follow him @adamhimmelsbach.





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Bruins Believe They ‘Didn’t Do Enough’ In Loss To Flyers | NESN

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Bruins Believe They ‘Didn’t Do Enough’ In Loss To Flyers | NESN


The Boston Bruins suffered a 3-1 road loss to the Philadelphia Flyers on Saturday.

Boston entered the game in points in eight-straight games, as the Bruins are competing for a playoff spot. However, Boston’s offense struggled on Saturday, as the Bruins scored just once on Dan Vladar, and head coach Marco Sturm felt like the team didn’t do enough to create more scoring chances.

“(Vladar) played really good, he kind of made those saves he needed to,” Sturm said as seen on NESN’s postgame coverage on Saturday. “We just didn’t do enough of a good job being around him or being front of him.”

Although Sturm didn’t like Boston’s play, Vladar still made some key stops when the game was close. 

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Bruins forward Morgan Geekie had multiple chances and was frustrated that he couldn’t score on any of them.

“Just one of those nights,” Geekie said. “Their goalie played well. Couldn’t quite put it in the spot I wanted to a couple times and Dan made a couple great plays.”

Boston’s lone goal came from Charlie McAvoy, while Jeremy Swayman made 14 saves on 16 shots, as Philadelphia added an empty-netter to secure the win.

With the loss, the Bruins fell to 33-21-5 and are holding onto the final Wild Card spot. Boston will return to the ice at home on Tuesday against the Pittsburgh Penguins.

More NHL: Charlie McAvoy’s Mother Reveals His Immediate Reaction To Team USA’s Gold Medal Win

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