Boston, MA
Missouri vs. Boston College score prediction by expert football model
One of two games featuring ranked teams on the same field this week finds No. 6 Missouri playing host to newly-ranked No. 24 Boston College in this weekend’s Week 3 NCAA football action.
The last time we saw this SEC vs. ACC matchup was three years ago in Chestnut Hill, Mass., as the Eagles beat Mizzou by a touchdown in overtime.
But that was when Missouri was still looking for its identity under head coach Eli Drinkwitz, a process that has taken leaps and bounds after winning 11 games and the Cotton Bowl last season.
While the Tigers have yet to allow a point in two games this season, the Eagles will present a decidedly more difficult challenge: BC ranks 10th in scoring defense, 26th in scoring offense, and is 9th nationally by rushing for 285 yards per game on average.
Boston College quarterback Thomas Castellanos hasn’t put the ball in the air often, just 26 times so far, but the dual threat player is hitting 73 percent of his throws with 6 touchdowns and no interceptions.
What do the analytics project for the matchup? Let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Boston College and Missouri compare in this Week 3 college football game.
The simulations currently favor the home team, and by an apparently generous margin.
SP+ predicts that Missouri will defeat Boston College by a projected score of 39 to 16 and to win the game by an expected 22.4 points.
The model gives Mizzou a strong 92 percent chance to win the game outright.
SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”
How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 47-44 against the spread with a 51.6 win percentage.
Missouri is a 16.5 point favorite against Boston College, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, which set the total at 53.5 points for the game.
FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for Missouri at -720 to win outright and for Boston College at +490.
If you’re using this projection to bet on the game, you should take…
Other analytical models also favor the Tigers to win out at home.
That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.
Missouri comes out the expected winner in 76.6 percent of the computer’s simulations, while Boston College wins the game in the remaining 23.4 percent of sims.
But the index forecasts a slightly closer game, as Missouri is projected to be 11.3 points better than Boston College on the same field, not enough to cover this spread.
Missouri is projected to win 9 games this season and is sixth among SEC teams with a 39.8 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff.
Boston College will win 8.3 games this year, by the model’s calculations, with a 17.5 percent shot at the 12-team playoff, sitting fourth among ACC teams this week.
When: Sat., Sept. 14
Time: 12:45 p.m. Eastern
TV: SEC Network
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Boston, MA
ICE blasts Boston: Feds say BPD refused 198 immigration detainer requests for ‘egregious crime’ in 2024, not 15
Federal authorities said the Boston Police Department refused to act on 198 immigration detainer requests last year, far exceeding the 15 reported by BPD’s commissioner, while blasting the city for jeopardizing “public safety and national security.”
BOSTON – South Street Diner is an institution in the city. They see Bostonians coming at all hours of the night. The line out the door comes for the breakfast, particularly the eggs. Only these days, a shortage in the country is making eggs harder to stomach for the only restaurant in the city licensed to serve 24 hours.
“Just about six weeks ago, middle of November, we started getting phone calls from US Foods,” said Solomon Sidell, owner of South Street Diner. “Our pricing has not changed at all. We have ingested the pricing to be able to make sure we can serve the customer at this time.”
Impact of bird flu
The price of an egg has doubled for Sidell and his team now that the shortage has impacted their supplier. Chickens became impacted by an avian flu. Roughly 40% of the country’s hens are raised in cage-free facilities, and 60% of the bird flu cases were found in such type farms. In addition to the price hike, Sidell also has to order two weeks ahead just to make sure they keep coming.
“We have about just under a pallet of eggs about 150 dozen left,” said Sidell. “We buy those Friday morning, Saturday morning, and then by Monday morning they are gone, so we have to start the process again.”
On a given weekend, they can go through 400 dozen eggs. Their busiest night of the year is New Year’s Eve through New Year’s Day.
“To have the highest prices for eggs for the year on your busiest day of the year is a punch in the gut,” said Sidell. “I would prefer not to raise pricing in inflation time.”
He expects the shortage to end in mid-February. Right now, they have no plans to adjust their pricing, but if the shortage continues past February, he says they will have to re-evaluate.
Boston, MA
Defending champions Hellen Obiri and Sisay Lemma are returning to run Boston Marathon – The Boston Globe
“Boston annually brings together the world’s best each April, and this Patriots Day is no different,” said Jack Fleming, CEO of the BAA. “Coming off an Olympic year, top contenders from around the world have turned their attention to Boston and hope to etch their name into Boston Marathon lore with a victory.”
The last woman to win three straight Boston Marathons was Fatuma Roba in 1997-99. Just three others — Bobbi Gibb (1966-68), Sara Mae Berman (1969-71), and Uta Pippig (1994-96) — have three-peated.
Among the threats to Obiri’s bid are Ethiopia’s Amane Beriso and Yalemzerf Yehualaw, whose personal bests top the women’s field, at 2:14:58 and 2:16:52, respectively.
Sharon Lokedi, who finished second last year, also will return, along with fellow Kenyans Edna Kiplagat (a two-time Boston winner), Irine Cheptai, Viola Chepngeno, and Mary Ngugi-Cooper.
The BAA said the women’s race will include the best-ever field of Americans, with 2018 champion Desiree Linden joined by Dakotah Popehn, Keira D’Amato, Emma Bates, Jessica McClain, Sara Hall, Sara Vaughn, and Lindsay Flanagan.
Ethiopia’s Sisay Lemma, who finished 41 seconds ahead of the second-place men’s finisher last year, will face a deep field trying to keep him from repeating.
It includes Kenya’s Evans Chebet, who finished third last year and has won Boston twice. John Korir and Albert Korir, also from Kenya, will be back as well, after finishing fourth and fifth, respectively, last year.
“I was very happy after winning the Boston Marathon last year, and in 2025 I know it will be an even bigger challenge to win again,” said Lemma. “I was unlucky, because of an injury, not to be able to participate at the 2024 Olympic Games in Paris, and I was not completely ready at the Valencia Marathon last December, but I will be 100 percent ready next April because the Boston Marathon is a special event.”
Among American men, Olympians Conner Mantz and Clayton Young, who finished eighth and ninth, respectively, in Paris last summer, will run Boston. So will CJ Albertson, who finished seventh last year and first among US men. Also in the Boston field will be four runners who finished in the top 10 at last year’s US Olympic trials: Zach Panning, Nathan Martin, Reed Fischer, and Colin Bennie.
Michael Silverman can be reached at michael.silverman@globe.com.
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