So you’re saying there’s a chance? Despite an abysmal start to the 2026 season, the Boston Red Sox remain in the mix for a playoff spot. At least according to FanGraphs, who gives the club a 27.1% chance of reaching the postseason.

Boston’s likely path to October means winning the wild card. FanGraphs gives the Red Sox a 26.1% chance of winning an American League wild card. The team currently sits threes games back of the third and final wild card, despite a record of 25-33.

Don’t look for a division title this year in Beantown. FanGraphs gives the Red Sox a 1% chance of winning the AL East. Which makes sense, since the team currently sits in last place, 11.5 games behind the first-place Tampa Bay Rays.

But SI’s Tom Verducci and Will Laws thinks Boston has a much tougher chance of making the playoffs. In their deep dive of the postseason, the pair came up with what they call the “Line of Doom.” According to their research, a team that starts “no better than 23–31 and your season is almost over only one-third of the way through the schedule.” Here’s why.

“In the wild card era (since 1995), only one team made the postseason starting with less than 22 wins in the first 54 games, the 2005 Astros (20–34). Of the 231 teams to start 23–31 or worse, only seven made the playoffs—once every 33 times,” Verducci and Laws note.

“Since the postseason field expanded in 2022, 31 teams began 23–31 or worse. Only one, the 2024 Mets (22–32), made the playoffs. That leaves such slow starters with a 1 in 31 chance—virtually the same as the larger sample size,” the pair add.

“The fact is one-third of the season does a good job separating pretenders from contenders. And as the calendar flips to June, understand that the playoff spots won’t change very much. In the four seasons with 12 playoff spots up for grabs, teams in playoff position when May ended kept a playoff spot 73% of the time—35 of 48 teams,” Verducci and Laws conclude.

So what does this have to do with the Red Sox, you ask? It’s Boston’s record after 54 games: 23-31. The “Line of Doom.”

More MLB: Red Sox Legend Backs ‘Worried’ John Henry

What should have been a quiet off-day for the Boston Red Sox has devolved into chaos.

Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow was the subject of a profile article in The Boston Globe that didn’t paint a sunny picture of his tenure, including a tough nugget about his relationship with legend Theo Epstein. But Breslow’s harshest critic of the day was probably the father of one of his ex-players.

St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Hunter Dobbins made his second major league appearance on Sunday since being traded from the Red Sox in the deal that brought Willson Contreras to Boston. After Dobbins pitched well and featured his sinker more than expected, his father Lance Dobbins took to social media to excoriate the Red Sox and Breslow.

Lance Dobbins’ latest comments harsher than the first

We covered Lance Dobbins’ initial comments from late Sunday night that seemed to be directed at the Red Sox organization already on Boston Red Sox On SI. But on Monday evening, the elder Dobbins reentered the fray to absolve pitching coach Andrew Bailey of any blame, effectively throwing Breslow under the bus.

When asked if Breslow replacing Chaim Bloom as chief baseball officer led to Hunter throwing less sinkers and fewer four-seam fastballs in the Red Sox organization, Lance responded with this:

“Yes! In Bailey’s defense he wanted the addition, but people behind computers make those decisions. The coaching staff is literally working with one hand tied behind their backs. Driveline is the answer to everything, but winning games!

“Ask yourself, why are so many of our guys always injured (pitchers and position players), it’s not by pure bad luck. Pitchers are having constant issues and hitters are always hurting hands and wrist. It’s not a league wide problem. It has to be fixed or we’ll never win because half of our starters will always be on the IL.”

That last point has to hit home for the Red Sox because star outfielder Roman Anthony (who debuted in the majors a couple of months after Hunter Dobbins) has now had two long-lasting injuries that occurred on swings — an oblique strain in September that ended his season prematurely, and a partially torn finger ligament that has held him out of action since May 4, with no end in sight.

Monday just wasn’t a good day in the public relations department for the Red Sox front office, or for Breslow in particular. But it’s worth noting that Dobbins has only made two appearances in a Cardinals uniform, allowing four earned runs in eight innings, taking a loss and earning a save.

Add us as a preferred source on Google

Follow