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Updating Red Sox’s Playoff Chances: Numbers Never Lie | NESN

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Updating Red Sox’s Playoff Chances: Numbers Never Lie | NESN


So you’re saying there’s a chance? Despite an abysmal start to the 2026 season, the Boston Red Sox remain in the mix for a playoff spot. At least according to FanGraphs, who gives the club a 27.1% chance of reaching the postseason.

Boston’s likely path to October means winning the wild card. FanGraphs gives the Red Sox a 26.1% chance of winning an American League wild card. The team currently sits threes games back of the third and final wild card, despite a record of 25-33.

Don’t look for a division title this year in Beantown. FanGraphs gives the Red Sox a 1% chance of winning the AL East. Which makes sense, since the team currently sits in last place, 11.5 games behind the first-place Tampa Bay Rays.

But SI’s Tom Verducci and Will Laws thinks Boston has a much tougher chance of making the playoffs. In their deep dive of the postseason, the pair came up with what they call the “Line of Doom.” According to their research, a team that starts “no better than 23–31 and your season is almost over only one-third of the way through the schedule.” Here’s why.

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“In the wild card era (since 1995), only one team made the postseason starting with less than 22 wins in the first 54 games, the 2005 Astros (20–34). Of the 231 teams to start 23–31 or worse, only seven made the playoffs—once every 33 times,” Verducci and Laws note.

“Since the postseason field expanded in 2022, 31 teams began 23–31 or worse. Only one, the 2024 Mets (22–32), made the playoffs. That leaves such slow starters with a 1 in 31 chance—virtually the same as the larger sample size,” the pair add.

“The fact is one-third of the season does a good job separating pretenders from contenders. And as the calendar flips to June, understand that the playoff spots won’t change very much. In the four seasons with 12 playoff spots up for grabs, teams in playoff position when May ended kept a playoff spot 73% of the time—35 of 48 teams,” Verducci and Laws conclude.

So what does this have to do with the Red Sox, you ask? It’s Boston’s record after 54 games: 23-31. The “Line of Doom.”

More MLB: Red Sox Legend Backs ‘Worried’ John Henry

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Woman killed in Mattapan carjacking crash honored at vigil

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Woman killed in Mattapan carjacking crash honored at vigil


Three days after an alleged carjacker hit and killed a woman in Boston’s Mattapan neighborhood, members of the community came together to honor her life.

A candlelight vigil was held Tuesday evening for 32-year-old Mabinty Janneh of Dorchester. She died after being hit Saturday afternoon on Blue Hill Avenue.

Ibraim Matos, 37, of Hyde Park, is charged with murder in the crash. He allegedly stole a vehicle and drove it onto the sidewalk, fatally hitting Janneh.

Ibraim Matos of Hyde Park has been charged with murder in the deadly crash.

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Heartbroken family, friends and community members gathered near the site of the crash to remember Janneh Tuesday.

“We need justice for Mabinty,” said her aunt, Mbalu Tarawally.

“I just felt like I needed to be present,” said Rev. Dr. Barbara Simmons. “If the family lost a person, the least I can do is come here and show my face.”

“She was young, vibrant. Hard worker. Wants to do everything,” said Ahmad Thorley, a family member of Janneh.

The suspect in a deadly carjacking and crash in Boston’s Mattapan neighborhood appeared in court to face charges including murder.

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Witnesses said Matos dragged Janneh several hundred feet after hitting her.

The stolen Toyota RAV4 crashed into an MBTA bus, and people at the pulled Matos out of the car and holding him there until police arrived.

Matos pleaded not guilty Monday to charges of leaving the scene of personal injury and death and motor vehicle homicide by reckless operation, along with murder and carjacking. His defense attorney spoke briefly on Monday, saying they will evaluate “where we stand” in a few weeks after the mental health evaluation.



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Your next Uber ride in Boston could be a taxi

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Your next Uber ride in Boston could be a taxi


Boston taxis will be able to pick up passengers who request Uber and Lyft rides under a new pilot program announced by Mayor Michelle Wu Tuesday.

Customers who get a cab through a ride-hailing app will still see the cost upfront on their phone as opposed to the typical taxi fare structure. 

“The goal of the pilot is to give Boston passengers more options to hail a taxi and to allow Boston’s licensed taxis to participate directly in meeting the demand for trips generated through Uber and Lyft,” the city said in a news release.

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Wu said the yearlong pilot will allow cab drivers to earn more while reducing wait times for passengers. 

“We’re thankful for the collaboration and advocacy from our taxicab drivers to introduce this new transportation service, and excited to support the people who keep our city moving,” the mayor said.

The program excludes taxi trips to Boston’s Logan Airport, and allows the Hackney Division to make exceptions during some special events in the city.

Uber’s website informs users “you might get matched with a Boston taxi driver.”

“If so, you’ll enjoy the same 24/7 availability and affordable prices you know with UberX while riding to your destination in a cab,” Uber says.

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The city said it expects taxi drivers will now be able to “access a significantly larger number of trips than most currently serve.”

“This change is a major boost for taxi drivers in Boston and the passengers we serve,” said Balwinder Gill, who has owned and operated a Boston taxi for 25 years.



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Editorial: With Boston’s World Cup win, could we host Olympics?

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Editorial: With Boston’s World Cup win, could we host Olympics?


The World Cup economic windfall boosting Boston gives rise to a question: Could the Hub host the Olympics?

Certainly Bostonians have more than risen to the occasion in terms of welcoming international visitors to our city and showing them a good time (and vice versa, Tartan Army). But it takes more than great hosts and a convivial atmosphere to pull off an epic sporting event.

It takes money, lots of it, political transparency, and a process open to public scrutiny and feedback. In other words, no, we couldn’t.

Public reception to the 2014 Olympics bid was tepid at best, as it would entail multiple construction projects. And when big construction projects are presented in Boston, taxpayers get suspicious. Big Dig, anyone?

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Boston 24 announced it estimated the Games would produce at least $4.8 billion in revenues from television broadcast rights, ticket sales, corporate sponsorships and other revenues, the Associated Press reported. They assumed nearly $4.6 billion in costs, including $176 million for a temporary Olympic Stadium, $90 million for the athletes’ village, about $754 million to build other Olympic venues and another $132 million to rent other locations.

They reportedly announced all this to answer critics who said the privately funded Boston 2024 withheld details of the bid to prevent the public from assessing whether the Games could be staged, as promised, without the need for taxpayer money.

We learned the answer to that soon enough.

In this case, as the Herald reported that year, details from Boston 2024’s so-called bid book indicated that plans sent to the U.S. Olympic Committee called for the Hub to fund “land acquisition and infrastructure costs” at Widett Circle, where a temporary Olympic stadium was being proposed. It came after months of promises that the group planned to run a privately funded Olympics.

“They’ve been saying for months, ‘No taxpayer (money),’ ” said Evan Falchuk, a vocal bid critic who pushed for a statewide ballot question on hosting the games. “Then you read what they told the USOC. … It’s a devastating blow to their credibility. There’s a reason why voters don’t trust what they’ve heard and (Boston 2024 has) got a lot of work to do to earn that trust.”

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And all this talk of money came before any cost overruns made an appearance. London’s budget for the 2012 Summer Games escalated by about 300%, ending somewhere in the $14 billion range. What were the chances we’d fare any better?

No wonder Bostonians gave the Olympics idea the cold shoulder.

But what of the city’s World Cup success story? For starters, Gillette Stadium is already built, and the only large element requiring a cash infusion was the MBTA, which shelled out $35 million to upgrade Foxboro Station in advance of the Cup. They’ll make a nice chunk of that back, as the T spiked round-trip Commuter Rail ticket prices between South Station and Gillette Stadium for fútbol fans to $80.

In this case, Bostonians are on the winning side, reaping benefits from free-spending (and thirsty) visitors, and reveling in the good vibes.

It would be great for the city if megaprojects, or even minor ones, came with the guarantee of financial transparency before shovels hit the dirt. Optimists should look at White Stadium before calling it a day.

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Editorial cartoon by Gary Varvel (Creators Syndicate)

 



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