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Updating Red Sox’s Playoff Chances: Numbers Never Lie | NESN

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Updating Red Sox’s Playoff Chances: Numbers Never Lie | NESN


So you’re saying there’s a chance? Despite an abysmal start to the 2026 season, the Boston Red Sox remain in the mix for a playoff spot. At least according to FanGraphs, who gives the club a 27.1% chance of reaching the postseason.

Boston’s likely path to October means winning the wild card. FanGraphs gives the Red Sox a 26.1% chance of winning an American League wild card. The team currently sits threes games back of the third and final wild card, despite a record of 25-33.

Don’t look for a division title this year in Beantown. FanGraphs gives the Red Sox a 1% chance of winning the AL East. Which makes sense, since the team currently sits in last place, 11.5 games behind the first-place Tampa Bay Rays.

But SI’s Tom Verducci and Will Laws thinks Boston has a much tougher chance of making the playoffs. In their deep dive of the postseason, the pair came up with what they call the “Line of Doom.” According to their research, a team that starts “no better than 23–31 and your season is almost over only one-third of the way through the schedule.” Here’s why.

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“In the wild card era (since 1995), only one team made the postseason starting with less than 22 wins in the first 54 games, the 2005 Astros (20–34). Of the 231 teams to start 23–31 or worse, only seven made the playoffs—once every 33 times,” Verducci and Laws note.

“Since the postseason field expanded in 2022, 31 teams began 23–31 or worse. Only one, the 2024 Mets (22–32), made the playoffs. That leaves such slow starters with a 1 in 31 chance—virtually the same as the larger sample size,” the pair add.

“The fact is one-third of the season does a good job separating pretenders from contenders. And as the calendar flips to June, understand that the playoff spots won’t change very much. In the four seasons with 12 playoff spots up for grabs, teams in playoff position when May ended kept a playoff spot 73% of the time—35 of 48 teams,” Verducci and Laws conclude.

So what does this have to do with the Red Sox, you ask? It’s Boston’s record after 54 games: 23-31. The “Line of Doom.”

More MLB: Red Sox Legend Backs ‘Worried’ John Henry

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Boston man charged after allegedly assaulting Burger King employee, punching customer

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Boston man charged after allegedly assaulting Burger King employee, punching customer


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The customer, who was evaluated for “visible lacerations to the forehead,” was punched three times while being called racial slurs, prosecutors say.

A Burger King sign in Erie, Pa.
AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar, File

A Boston man is facing charges after he allegedly lunged at a Burger King employee, punched a customer, and then resisted arrest at a nearby MBTA station in East Boston, authorities announced Monday afternoon. 

Patrick Donovan, 59, was charged July 1 with one count of assault and battery causing injury on an over 60 or disabled person, assault and battery, disorderly conduct, resisting arrest, assault, and vandalism, Suffolk District Attorney Kevin Hayden’s office said in a press release. 

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The charges stem from an incident shortly before 10 p.m. on June 30, when Boston police responded to a disturbance call from Burger King at 1 Maverick Square, Hayden’s office said.

A Burger King employee told officers that, after ordering his food and receiving it, Donovan yelled that he no longer wanted it and smacked a napkin holder off the counter. He then allegedly lunged at an employee and grabbed her by the arm, prosecutors said. 

Donovan subsequently shoved a customer from behind and allegedly punched him in the face three times while calling him racial slurs, the DA’s office said. 

Emergency medical services evaluated the customer for “visible lacerations to the forehead,” but the victim declined additional treatment, authorities said. 

Donovan fled the restaurant following the assaults, and officers tracked him to the nearby MBTA Maverick Station, prosecutors said. 

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“While officers tried to detain Donovan inside the station, he swung at them with a closed fist but did not make contact,” Hayden’s office said, noting that Donovan made racial slurs towards the officers. “Donovan was placed into custody after a brief struggle.” 

During his arraignment in the East Boston division of the Boston Municipal Court, Donovan pleaded not guilty and was released on personal recognizance. Court records show he was also ordered to stay away from Maverick Square and Burger King. 

He is scheduled to return to court Aug. 7 for a pre-trial hearing, prosecutors said. 

Officers obtained security footage of both assaults. Authorities said the incident remains under investigation and could result in further charges. 

“Our workers deserve to be safe in their workplaces and our consumers deserve to be safe in their shopping or dining places, without exception,” Hayden said in a statement. “Beyond that, none of our citizens or first responders should be subjected to racial slurs. These appalling words have no place in Suffolk County or anywhere else in our society.” 

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Attorney information for Donovan was not immediately available Monday afternoon.

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Rideshare driver charged in Logan airport passenger assault to appear in court

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Rideshare driver charged in Logan airport passenger assault to appear in court


A rideshare driver suspected of assaulting a passenger at Boston Logan International Airport on Friday is scheduled to be arraigned on Monday.

Leonard Bacon, 23, was found in Lowell, where he lives, and taken into custody on Sunday, Massachusetts State Police said. He’s charged with assault and battery with a dangerous weapon causing serious bodily injury.

It wasn’t immediately clear if Bacon, who’s due to face the charge in East Boston District Court, had an attorney who could speak for him.

Police didn’t share more details on what Bacon is accused of doing. They’ve previously said that the rideshare passenger entered Terminal C just before 5:30 a.m. and reported that they had been physically assaulted by their driver prior to being dropped off.

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After the passenger got out of the vehicle, the rideshare driver left the scene, according to police, who alerted area law enforcement agencies to look out for the suspect. The victim was taken to a Boston-area hospital with non-life-threatening injuries, police added.

Police are looking for a rideshare driver who was reported to have assaulted a passenger right before drop-off at Boston’s Logan airport.

In a statement, Uber said they’ve checked in with the rider and removed the driver’s access to their rideshare platform.

“We are horrified by this reported violence,” a representative for the company said in a statement, adding, “Our specialized team has been in touch with law enforcement, and we will continue to do whatever we can to support their investigation.”

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‘More than just a cyclist’: Hundreds mourn Boston transit planner killed while biking – The Boston Globe

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‘More than just a cyclist’: Hundreds mourn Boston transit planner killed while biking – The Boston Globe


“She’s more than just a cyclist and an advocate,” Rose Frank, 36, who became friends with Gag in seventh grade, said. “Those were parts of her identity, but she’s such an amazing person in so many other ways, and we want to celebrate all of those ways.”

Gag, who grew up in Roslindale just minutes from the park, was a joyful and energetic child, said Mark Smith, 66, a neighbor who spoke at the event.

“She was the sweetest little girl with a big wide smile,” Smith said. “Whenever you were in her presence, you felt somehow special.”

Mayor Michelle Wu is consoled at the conclusion of a vigil held for Louisa Gag on Sunday.Pat Greenhouse/Globe Staff

Smith said Gag’s passion for giving back to her community likely came from her parents, Steve Gag and Laura Gang, longtime Roslindale residents who contributed greatly to developing the neighborhood. Steve Gag helped bring a farmers market to Adams Park, while Laura Gang was involved in the public library.

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Gag’s loved ones said she grew up to become a generous person who cared deeply about her family and friends.

“Louisa showed up for people,” Molly Goodkind, 36, a childhood friend of Gag’s said during Sunday’s event. “We’ll never understand how she had time to be everyone’s go-to person.”

Gag, she said, would eagerly volunteer to cat-sit, even though she didn’t like cats. Another friend said she kept a spreadsheet of the birthdays of all the babies she knew.

“She was the person outside of my biological family who, if I needed something, she would be there in an instant,” Goodkind, who has known Gag since they were 2-years-old, said.

Gag’s friends said she was curious and remained open-minded, even though she held firm beliefs.

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“Who do you know that was a vegetarian except for when it inconvenienced others? And of course, except for hot dogs, because according to Louisa, you can’t not have a hot dog at a barbecue,” Gag’s friend Danielle Shaked said, drawing laughs from the crowd, including Laura Gang, who dabbed at her eyes with a crumpled tissue.

Gag also found time for many hobbies, and was always trying new ones, her friends said. Beyond loving outdoor activities such as biking and hiking, she was passionate about sustainability and shopped secondhand or sewed her own clothes. She dabbled in photography, painting, and cooking.

Phyllis Bluhm said she’s known Louisa Gag’s parents for about 36 years.Pat Greenhouse/Globe Staff

Urban planning was one of Gag’s enduring passions, Goodkind said.

“In college, she created her own major,” she said. “I don’t remember exactly what she called it, but it was something like city and people.”

Gag attended college at the University of Rochester and later earned a master’s degree in urban and environmental planning and policy from Tufts University, according to her LinkedIn.

Before joining the city in 2022, Gag worked for LivableStreets Alliance, a Boston-based nonprofit that advocates for increased safety, equity, and affordability. She also interned for Mayor Michelle Wu when Wu was a city councilor.

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Wu attended Sunday’s event, but did not speak. Like many other attendees, she held a yellow sunflower, one of Gag’s favorites, as she tearfully listened to the tributes.

While Gag didn’t like being the center of attention, her friends said she would have been grateful for Sunday’s event.

“She would be completely honored to know that she has impacted so many people,” Frank said, her gaze drifting over the people gathered in the park.

Under a small tent nearby, attendees crowded around a folding table, filling out remembrance cards. Dozens of bikes leaned against the park’s fences while more lay scattered in the grass.


Allyson Chiu can be reached at allyson.chiu@globe.com. Follow her on X @_allysonchiu.

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