The Patriots are banged up heading into their penultimate regular-season game, but their final two games remain must-wins.
To win the AFC East and remain in contention for the No. 1 seed in the AFC, the Patriots will likely need to win out against the Jets and Dolphins.
The Patriots can win the division by winning their final two games. If they were to lose to the Jets or Dolphins, then the Bills would also need to lose against the Eagles or Jets.
To achieve the No. 1 seed in the AFC, the Patriots would likely need to win out plus hope for a loss from the Broncos, who already beat the Chiefs in Week 17 and face the Chargers in Week 18.
The No. 1 seed, and the first-round bye that comes with it, would be valuable for the Patriots, who saw nine players suffer injuries in Week 16 on top of existing ailments to players like linebacker Robert Spillane, outside linebacker Harold Landry and defensive tackle Milton Williams, who’s eligible to return off injured reserve this week.
Here’s what we’re watching for in Week 17 when the Patriots travel to New York to take on the Jets:
• This game opened, back when the schedule came out, as the Patriots being favored by 1.5 points. Sixteen weeks into the season, the Patriots are now favored by 13.5 points. After close games against the Bills and Ravens, a blowout win over the Jets would be a confidence boost for the Patriots. We think they can do it. This feels like a 38-14 win.
• Quarterback Drake Maye can boost his MVP campaign with some impressive statlines against the Jets and Dolphins. Are they as impactful as impressive performances against the NFL’s best teams? No, but Maye is five away from 30 touchdown passes, and two 275-yard passing days can still get him to 4,500 passing yards.
• Patriots defenders stated last week that forcing turnovers was emphasized throughout the week. They proved they could do it with two fumble recoveries. They need to keep that energy going against the Jets and hope that rookie quarterback Brady Cook can loft some passes towards the Patriots’ defensive backs for more interceptions.
• The Patriots have faced some very bad Jets quarterbacks over the years, but Cook, a 2025 undrafted free agent, ranks up there with Bryce Petty, Luke Falk and Zach Wilson. Cook is 0-2 as a starter with a 59.2% completion percentage, 527 yards, one touchdown and six interceptions. There’s no excuse to struggle in pass defense.
• The defense has to get right against the run even though they’ll remain without Williams and Spillane. After ranking among the top run defenses in the league through 10 weeks, things went haywire from Week 11 and beyond after Williams suffered an ankle injury against this Jets team at home. The run defense won’t be at full strength again until Spillane, Williams and defensive tackle Khyiris Tonga return, but the current unit needs to prove they can load up the box and actually halt the opposing team.
• Is this the week that Patriots undrafted rookie Efton Chism finally makes his first NFL catch? It might be. Chism should be involved in the offense with Kayshon Boutte (concussion) and wide receiver Mack Hollins (abdomen) both out. We’ll see if Chism can steal some slot snaps from DeMario Douglas, who’s dealing with a hamstring injury.
• Fellow rookie wide receiver Kyle Williams started the season slow, but he now has five catches for 169 yards with three touchdowns in the Patriots’ last six games. No, those aren’t exactly otherworldly numbers, but he’s shown the ability to stretch the defense and make some highlight grabs deep down the field. Is this Williams’ true breakout week? The depth chart indicates it could be.
• Left guard Ben Brown has a chance to reward the Patriots immediately for giving him a two-year contract extension. Brown has provided valuable depth over the last two seasons, and now he’ll be back starting at left guard in place of Jared Wilson (concussion). Wilson provides more upside to the offense, but Brown has actually earned a higher PFF grade (68.5) than Wilson (49.9) this season.
• Let’s see if Vederian Lowe can continue to hold up at left tackle in place of Will Campbell, who’s eligible to return next week from a knee injury. In three starts this season, Lowe has a 66.4 PFF grade and has let up one sack, two QB hits and five hurries.
• Head coach Mike Vrabel praised the Jets’ offensive line this week. They have two young starting offensive tackles in Ola Fashanu and Armand Membou who could continue to halt the Patriots’ pass rush. It would be nice to see rookies Elijah Ponder and Bradyn Swinson get some opportunities against them, and they should get the chance with veteran Harold Landry out.
