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Winter blizzard puts a chill on Republican nomination fight in Iowa

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Winter blizzard puts a chill on Republican nomination fight in Iowa

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A winter blizzard froze the presidential nominating contest in Iowa this weekend, as Donald Trump and his Republican rivals cancelled campaign events with less than three days to go until the Iowa caucuses.

Trump remains the undisputed frontrunner heading into Monday’s caucuses, which will fire the starting gun on the Republican presidential nomination process and serve as an early test of the former president’s electoral strength among his party’s grassroots.

But Trump’s campaign suffered a setback when it was forced to cancel several planned events in the Midwestern state over the weekend, with the former president stranded in Florida amid record snowfall and heavy winds in Iowa. Trump is now expected to hold just one rally in Iowa this weekend, on Sunday afternoon.

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“One way or another, I’m getting there. You have the worst weather, I guess, in recorded history,” Trump said in a video posted to social media late Friday. “But maybe that’s good, because our people are more committed than anybody else, so maybe it is actually a good thing for us.”

Trump’s rivals Florida governor Ron DeSantis and former UN ambassador Nikki Haley also pared back their schedules on Friday, but resumed most of their planned campaigning by midday on Saturday.

Nikki Haley arrives for a campaign event at the James Theater on Saturday in Iowa City © Getty Images

Trump and his allies have tried to temper expectations heading into the caucuses, aware that a closer than-expected finish could undercut the former president’s claim to being the party’s presumptive nominee.

The latest FiveThirtyEight average of opinion polls in the state shows Trump commands the support of roughly half of Republican voters, followed by Haley on about 17 per cent and DeSantis on around 16 points. Biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy trails in a distant fourth place, with 6 per cent support.

But many have questioned whether Monday night’s results could be affected by the extreme winter weather. Iowans are no strangers to snowfall and cold temperatures. However, the blizzard that blanketed the state on Friday and Saturday is set to be followed by record-low temperatures that will stretch into Tuesday.

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The current forecast for Des Moines, the state capital, is for temperatures as low as -19 degrees Fahrenheit, or -28 degrees Celsius, on caucus night, and the National Weather Service has warned of “life threatening wind chills”.

That has raised questions about whether voters will turn out to participate in the caucuses, local meetings that take place at schools, churches and other public places across the state. There is no absentee, mail-in, or early voting at caucuses. Instead, voters must turn up at 7pm local time to discuss the candidates with their neighbours before casting their ballots in a process that is likely to take several hours.

“What it does for the overall turnout, I mean, nobody can forecast what the turnout is gonna be,” DeSantis told reporters at a last-minute stop to greet his campaign volunteers on Friday afternoon. “Anyone that tells you they can do that is not it’s not being honest. It’s a major wild card.”

Kari Lake, former Republican candidate for Governor of Arizona, poses outside Donald Trump’s campaign headquarters in Urbandale, Iowa on Saturday © REUTERS

Dennis Goldford, a political-science professor at Drake University in Des Moines and an expert on caucuses, said that on the one hand, the bitter cold could deter older voters and voters in rural areas — two key sources of Trump’s support — from turning out.

“On the other hand, the most avid, the most enthused, the most activated folks will turn out come hell or high water — or icebergs,” he added, noting that Trump’s supporters have historically shown unparalleled enthusiasm for their candidate.

Goldford pointed out, however, that Trump’s biggest vulnerability could simply be his supporters’ belief that his win is guaranteed and there is no need for them to caucus.

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“Trump is more worried about failing to meet expectations,” Goldberg said. “The expectations have been set sky high.”

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Supreme Court blocks redrawing of New York congressional map, dealing a win for GOP

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Supreme Court blocks redrawing of New York congressional map, dealing a win for GOP

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The Supreme Court on Monday intervened in New York’s redistricting process, blocking a lower court decision that would likely have flipped a Republican congressional district into a Democratic district.    
  
At issue is the midterm redrawing of New York’s 11th congressional district, including Staten Island and a small part of Brooklyn. The district is currently held by a Republican, but on Jan. 21, a state Supreme Court judge ruled that the current district dilutes the power of Black and Latino voters in violation of the state constitution.  
  
GOP Rep. Nicole Malliotakis, who represents the district, and the Republican co-chair of the state Board of Elections promptly appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court, asking the justices to block the redrawing as an unconstitutional “racial gerrymander.” New York’s congressional election cycle was set to officially begin Feb. 24, the opening day for candidates to seek placement on the ballot.  
  
As in this year’s prior mid-decade redistricting fights — in Texas and California — the Trump administration backed the Republicans.   
 
Voters and the State of New York contended it’s too soon for the Supreme Court to wade into this dispute. New York’s highest state court has not issued a final judgment, so the voters asserted that if the Supreme Court grants relief now “future stay applicants will see little purpose in waiting for state court rulings before coming to this Court” and “be rewarded for such gamesmanship.” The state argues this is an issue for “New York courts, not federal courts” to resolve, and there is sufficient time for the dispute to be resolved on the merits. 
  
The court majority explained the decision to intervene in 101 words, which the three dissenting liberal justices  summarized as “Rules for thee, but not for me.” 
 
The unsigned majority order does not explain the Court’s rationale. It says only how long the stay will last, until the case moves through the New York State appeals courts. If, however, the losing party petitions and the court agrees to hear the challenge, the stay extends until the final opinion is announced. 
 
Dissenting from the decision were Justices Sonia Sotomayor, Elena Kagan, and Ketanji Brown Jackson. Writing for the three, Sotomayor  said that  if nonfinal decisions of a state trial court can be brought to highest court, “then every decision from any court is now fair game.” More immediately, she noted, “By granting these applications, the Court thrusts itself into the middle of every election-law dispute around the country, even as many States redraw their congressional maps ahead of the 2026 election.” 

Monday’s Supreme Court action deviates from the court’s hands-off pattern in these mid-term redistricting fights this year. In two previous cases — from Texas and California — the court refused to intervene, allowing newly drawn maps to stay in effect.  
  
Requests for Supreme Court intervention on redistricting issues has been a recurring theme this term, a trend that is likely to grow.  Earlier last month  the high court allowed California to use a voter-approved, Democratic-friendly map.  California’s redistricting came in response to a GOP-friendly redistricting plan in Texas that the Supreme Court also permitted to move forward. These redistricting efforts are expected to offset one another.     
   
But the high court itself has yet to rule on a challenge to Louisiana’s voting map, which was drawn by the state legislature after the decennial census in order to create a second majority-Black district.  Since the drawing of that second majority-black district, the state has backed away from that map, hoping to return to a plan that provides for only one majority-minority district.    
     
The Supreme Court’s consideration of the Louisiana case has stretched across two terms. The justices failed to resolve the case last term and chose to order a second round of arguments this term adding a new question: Does the state’s intentional creation of a second majority-minority district violate the constitution’s Fourteenth and Fifteenth Amendments’ guarantee of the right to vote and the authority of Congress to enforce that mandate?    
Following the addition of the new question, the state of Louisiana flipped positions to oppose the map it had just drawn and defended in court. Whether the Supreme Court follows suit remains to be seen. But the tone of the October argument suggested that the court’s conservative supermajority is likely to continue undercutting the 1965 Voting Rights Act.   

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Map: Earthquake Shakes Central California

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Map: Earthquake Shakes Central California

Note: Map shows the area with a shake intensity of 3 or greater, which U.S.G.S. defines as “weak,” though the earthquake may be felt outside the areas shown.  All times on the map are Pacific time. The New York Times

A minor earthquake with a preliminary magnitude of 3.5 struck in Central California on Monday, according to the United States Geological Survey.

The temblor happened at 7:17 a.m. Pacific time about 6 miles northwest of Pinnacles, Calif., data from the agency shows.

As seismologists review available data, they may revise the earthquake’s reported magnitude. Additional information collected about the earthquake may also prompt U.S.G.S. scientists to update the shake-severity map.

Source: United States Geological Survey | Notes: Shaking categories are based on the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale. When aftershock data is available, the corresponding maps and charts include earthquakes within 100 miles and seven days of the initial quake. All times above are Pacific time. Shake data is as of Monday, March 2 at 10:20 a.m. Eastern. Aftershocks data is as of Monday, March 2 at 11:18 a.m. Eastern.

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US says Kuwait accidentally shot down 3 American jets

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US says Kuwait accidentally shot down 3 American jets

The U.S. and Israel have been conducting strikes against targets in Iran since Saturday morning, with the aim of toppling Tehran’s clerical regime. Iran has fired back, with retaliatory assaults featuring missiles and drones targeting several Gulf countries and American bases in the Middle East.

“All six aircrew ejected safely, have been safely recovered, and are in stable condition. Kuwait has acknowledged this incident, and we are grateful for the efforts of the Kuwaiti defense forces and their support in this ongoing operation,” Central Command said.

“The cause of the incident is under investigation. Additional information will be released as it becomes available,” it added.

In a separate statement later Monday, Central Command said that American forces had been killed during combat since the strikes began.

“As of 7:30 am ET, March 2, four U.S. service members have been killed in action. The fourth service member, who was seriously wounded during Iran’s initial attacks, eventually succumbed to their injuries,” it said.

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Major combat operations continue and our response effort is ongoing. The identities of the fallen are being withheld until 24 hours after next of kin notification,” Central Command added.

This story has been updated.

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