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What we know about the ‘victory plan’ Zelensky is presenting to Biden today

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What we know about the ‘victory plan’ Zelensky is presenting to Biden today

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is expected to present the victory plan to his U.S. counterpart Joe Biden at the White House on Sept. 26, a potentially pivotal moment in the long-running saga of Washington’s support for Ukraine.

Zelensky, who is visiting the U.S. this week, has said that the plan is designed to push Russian President Vladimir Putin into a fair peace agreement by boosting Ukraine’s firepower and giving it an upper hand two and a half years into Russia’s full-scale invasion. Zelensky has not publicly specified how it will achieve this.

Here’s what we know so far…

The timing

The announcement that Kyiv was preparing a victory plan came as Ukraine gained momentum following its surprise incursion into Russia’s Kursk Oblast. The ongoing operation, the first significant invasion of Russian territory since World War II, was a significant blow to the Kremlin and Putin.

It exposed Russia’s inability to defend its own territory and challenged Putin’s so-called “red lines” aimed at deterring Ukraine’s Western allies from stepping up weaponry supplies. It also showed Ukraine’s backers that Kyiv could still seize the initiative on the battlefield.

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As well as riding the momentum of the Kursk operation, events in the U.S. could also be a big factor in Kyiv’s push to present the plan — the November U.S. presidential election that might bring former President Donald Trump back to the White House and jeopardize the U.S. support for Ukraine.

The content

The fine details of the plan are yet to be made public. It is expected to address military, political, diplomatic, and economic strategies.

A source close to Zelensky told the Kyiv Independent last week that it aims “to create such conditions and such an atmosphere that Russia will no longer be able to ignore the peace formula and the peace summit.”

But some elements have been revealed. The head of the Presidential Office Andriy Yermak earlier this week said that an invitation to join NATO is part of the plan.

According to the information obtained by the Kyiv Independent on Sept. 22, Ukraine would ask for NATO membership within the months, not years.

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Speaking at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York, Yermak also said that the five-point victory plan includes both diplomatic and military components.

US President Joe Biden shakes hands with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at an event with world leaders launching a Joint Declaration of Support for Ukrainian Recovery and Reconstruction on the sidelines of the 79th Session of the United Nations General Assembly in New York, US on Sep. 25, 2024. (Andrew Caballero-Reynolds / AFP via Getty Images)

“I also urged our partners to ignore Russia’s threats of escalation,” he said.

One element certain to be in the plan is the U.S. and other allies’ approval for Ukraine to use long-range weapons including Western-provided missiles to target military sites deep inside Russia.

Kyiv has long been pushing for restrictions to be lifted as it would enable Ukraine to destroy the airfields from which Russian aircraft are taking off to attack Ukrainian civilian infrastructure as well as degrade Russian air defenses.

And we also know one thing that won’t be in the plan – a partial ceasefire.

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After a German media report suggested otherwise, Zelensky personally refuted the claim.

“There is not and cannot be any alternative to peace, no freezing of the war or any other manipulations that will simply move Russian aggression to another stage,” Zelensky said in his evening address on Sept. 18.

How has it gone down so far?

The first reports aren’t too positive.

The White House is concerned that Zelensky’s plan lacks a clear strategy to win against Russia, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on Sept. 25, citing U.S. and European officials.

Some officials familiar with the plan’s outlines said it focuses too heavily on requesting more weapons and lifting restrictions on long-range missile strikes.

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“I’m unimpressed, there’s not much new there,” one senior official told the WSJ.

White House officials are worried that Zelensky’s plan does not offer clear, actionable steps that Biden can support in his four remaining months in office, the WSJ reported.

U.S. and European officials told the WSJ that parts of the plan remain underdeveloped, and that requests related to weapons are the most specific and detailed.

What happens if Biden rejects the plan?

“That’s a horrible thought,” Zelensky said when asked this question by The New Yorker in an interview, published on Sept. 22.

“It would mean that Biden doesn’t want to end the war in any way that denies Russia a victory,” he said.

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“And we would end up with a very long war—an impossible, exhausting situation that would kill a tremendous number of people. Having said that, I can’t blame Biden for anything,” Zelensky added.


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Newsom Suspends State Environmental Rules for Rebuilding After Fires

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Newsom Suspends State Environmental Rules for Rebuilding After Fires

Governor Gavin Newsom has signed a broad executive order that aims to make it easier to rebuild after the fires by suspending California’s costly and time-consuming environmental review process for homeowners and businesses whose property was damaged or destroyed.

The order is likely to be the first of several permit streamlining measures issued by state, county and city agencies in the wake of the devastating fires across greater Los Angeles.

Mr. Newsom’s three-page order, signed Sunday, covers all of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties and directs state agencies to coordinate with local governments to remove or expedite permitting and approval processes during rebuilding. The most significant piece is a waiver on permitting requirements under the California Environmental Quality Act — a landmark environmental law known colloquially as C.E.Q.A. or “See Qua.”

The governor also announced that he had suspended all permitting requirements under the California State Coastal Act for properties rebuilding after the fires.

California is one of America’s most difficult and costly places to build — a driving factor behind the state’s longstanding affordable housing shortage. Between state agencies and local land use commissions, the process of developing buildings, from office complexes to subsidized rental complexes, is longer and more expensive than in almost every other state.

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Of all the hurdles a project can be subjected to, few are more difficult and time-consuming than C.E.Q.A. The law often requires developers to fund in-depth environmental studies on a project’s potential impact on everything from local wildlife to noise, views and traffic. Groups who oppose a particular development often use C.E.Q.A. lawsuits to try to stop them. This can add years even to small projects.

While the state’s powerful environmental groups are fiercely protective of any attempts to amend C.E.Q.A. or the Coastal Act, the laws are routinely suspended in emergencies and for large projects such as sports stadiums.

Still, Mr. Newsom’s order was unusually extensive. For instance, after other disasters C.E.Q.A. suspensions have typically required rebuilding property owners to show they tried to comply with the law, even if they weren’t subjected to it. The order announced Sunday is a full waiver: For anyone rebuilding after the fires, C.E.Q.A. is effectively gone.

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California fires could be costliest disaster in US history, says governor

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California fires could be costliest disaster in US history, says governor

The California wildfires could be the costliest disaster in US history, the state’s governor said, as forecasts of heavy winds raised fears that the catastrophic blazes would spread further.

In remarks to NBC’s Meet the Press on Sunday, Gavin Newsom said the fires — which have burnt through more than 40,000 acres, according to CalFire, the state’s forestry and fire protection department — would be the worst the country has seen “in terms of just the costs associated with it, [and] in terms of the scale and scope”.

He added that there were likely to be “a lot more” fatalities confirmed. The death toll on Saturday evening stood at 16, according to Los Angeles authorities.

The prospect of a pick-up on Sunday in the Santa Ana winds that have fanned the flames has left tens of thousands of residents under evacuation orders. The fires were threatening homes in upscale Mandeville Canyon and the Brentwood neighbourhood, although officials said they had made progress in stemming the advance there.

The National Weather Service has forecast gusts of between 50mph and 70mph, while drought conditions remain.

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“We know that elevated critical fire conditions will continue through Wednesday”, Los Angeles County fire chief Anthony Maroney said on Sunday.

LA is experiencing its second-driest start to its rainy season in more than a century, according to the non-profit Cal Matters news service. Halfway into the season, LA has only recorded about 0.2 inches of rain since October -— well below the 4.5 inches that is common by January.

Newsom, a Democrat, responded to a barrage of attacks from Donald Trump. The incoming Republican president has accused the governor of depleting water reserves to protect an endangered species of fish, and of refusing to sign a “water restoration declaration” that would have “allowed millions of gallons of water . . . to flow daily into many parts of California”. Newsom’s office has said no such declaration exists.

Trump, who has a long-standing feud with Newsom and refers to him as “Newscum”, also called on the Californian to resign, accusing him of “gross incompetence”.

“The reservoirs are completely full, the state reservoirs here in Southern California,” Newsom said.

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The charred remains of a jewellery store and other shops at a corner of Sunset Boulevard © Michael Nigro/Bloomberg
An air tanker drops fire retardant at the Palisades Fire © Ringo Chiu/Reuters

“That mis- and disinformation I don’t think advantages or aids any of us,” he added. “Responding to Donald Trump’s insults, we would spend another month. I’m very familiar with them. Every elected official that he disagrees with is very familiar with them.”

Newsom also said he had invited the president-elect to visit the affected areas, but had yet to receive a response from the Trump transition team.

Firefighters have tamed three fires since Tuesday, including the Sunset blaze that threatened the Hollywood hills. The Hurst fire in the San Fernando Valley, north of Los Angeles, was 80 per cent contained on Sunday afternoon.

But firefighters are still struggling to tame the two biggest blazes. Newsom said on social media platform X that the Palisades and Eaton fires were 11 per cent and 27 per cent contained. Thousands of firefighters have been deployed to battle the Palisades fire with heavy trucks and air support, the mayor’s office said Sunday. The city has also opened shelters to affected families.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency (Fema) has staff in LA to help Angelenos apply for disaster relief, while the Federal Small Business Administration is offering home and business disaster loans.

Newsom issued an executive order that he said would prevent those who lost their homes from being “caught up in bureaucratic red tape” so they could quickly rebuild.

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The head of Fema on Sunday raised the prospect of US troops being sent to Los Angeles to help control the blaze.

“There are active-duty military personnel that are on a prepare-to-deploy order, that are ready to go in and continue to support the firefighting effort,” Deanne Criswell told ABC’s This Week programme. Speaking on CNN, she warned that strong winds expected in the coming days could spread the fire further.

Map showing the perimeters of the fires in LA and evacuation orders and warnings currently in place

No official estimate of the cost of the damage has yet been released, but analysts at AccuWeather last week calculated the economic loss to be between $135bn and $150bn — short of the $250bn cost associated with last year’s Hurricane Helene. At least 12,300 structures had been destroyed, according to CalFire.

President Joe Biden on Thursday pledged that the US government would pay for “100 per cent of all the costs” created by the disaster, and would ask Congress for more financial aid.

Trump, who on the campaign trail last year threatened to withhold disaster funding from California, has thus far remained silent on whether he would provide similar assistance. On Sunday, he renewed his attacks on the state’s officials.

“The incompetent pols have no idea how to put [the fires] out,” he wrote. “There is death all over the place. This is one of the worst catastrophes in the history of our country. They just can’t put out the fires. What’s wrong with them?”

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On the way out: Transportation Sec. Buttigieg looks back on achievements, challenges : Consider This from NPR

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On the way out: Transportation Sec. Buttigieg looks back on achievements, challenges : Consider This from NPR

U.S. Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg speaks to questions during a news conference at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport November 21, 2024 in Arlington, Virginia.

Alex Wong/Getty Images


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Alex Wong/Getty Images


U.S. Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg speaks to questions during a news conference at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport November 21, 2024 in Arlington, Virginia.

Alex Wong/Getty Images

From handling crises in the rail and airline industries to overseeing the distribution of billions of dollars in infrastructure funding, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg has taken on a lot over the last four years.

Now, his tenure is coming to an end.

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Host Scott Detrow speaks with Buttigieg about what the Biden administration accomplished, what it didn’t get done, and what he’s taking away from an election where voters resoundingly called for something different.

For sponsor-free episodes of Consider This, sign up for Consider This+ via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org

Email us at considerthis@npr.org

This episode was produced by Brianna Scott, Avery Keatley and Tyler Bartlam. It was edited by Adam Raney.

Our executive producer is Sami Yenigun.

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