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What if Trump Deported 11 Million Immigrants?

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What if Trump Deported 11 Million Immigrants?

When he was young, Diego Quiñones got so frustrated putting in long hours at his immigrant family’s business that he once kicked over a bucket in protest. He now concedes that his labors were worthwhile. During a tour of his family’s wooden pallet plant near Bentonville, Ark., he beamed with pride noting that business was booming.

Mr. Quiñones, along with his mother and siblings, moved to the United States from Mexico in 1997, two years after his father. Most of them entered illegally. His father is still undocumented. Like other immigrants, the family settled in a part of Arkansas where Walmart has its headquarters and the poultry business is strong. They joked that the pallets used by these local industries were as popular in Bentonville as tortillas were in Mexico — so they started manufacturing them. As the region has grown, their pallet business has too.

No one knows how many Arkansas immigrants, like members of Mr. Quiñones’s family, came here without documents. But former President Donald J. Trump’s party platform promises nationwide the “largest deportation effort in American history.” Some worry about what deportations would mean for Northwest Arkansas’s workers, and the businesses that rely on them.

Northwest Arkansas was last year ranked the 15th fastest-growing region in the country, and much of that population growth is driven by immigrant workers. According to the 1990 census, the region was 95 percent white. By 2021, that figure had fallen to nearly 71 percent. Springdale, where Tyson Foods is based, is now nearly 40 percent Hispanic.

Diego Quiñones at his family’s pallet business.

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Mr. Trump has offered few details on his plans for mass deportations, though JD Vance, his running mate, said during the vice-presidential debate that they would start with deporting roughly one million people who had crimes on their records other than entering the country illegally.

Immigration experts point out the many barriers to enacting Mr. Trump’s plan, including the sheer size of the population. There were 11 million undocumented immigrants living in the country in 2022. A mass deportation could cost some $88 billion a year over roughly 10 years, according to an estimate from the American Immigration Council, which is a nonprofit advocacy group. Congress would have to come up with the money to carry out one million arrests, including hiring at least 31,000 immigration agents, a researcher for the council said. The legal system is already backlogged: There are nearly four million cases winding their way through the courts, and cases often take two to six years.

Even with those logistical hurdles, the specter of mass deportations has stirred, for many, a sense of fear. Mr. Quiñones’s mother got permanent residency in 2021. He and his sister are part of the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals, or DACA, program, which protects immigrants brought to America as young children from deportation.

“It’s a popular selling point to the base to say ‘I’m going to round up five million immigrants,’” said Mr. Quiñones, 35. “You want to cut out your labor source? It seems counterproductive.”

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The Asian Amigo Supermarket in Rogers, Ar.

The influx of immigrants into Northwest Arkansas has given rise to a thriving local ecosystem of businesses. Downtown Springdale is dotted with Mexican restaurants, and its school system is 45 percent Hispanic. The city celebrates an annual festival called ArkanSalsa Fest. Last year came the announcement that Arkansas is planning to welcome a professional soccer team, Ozark United FC, whose co-founder said that he saw opportunity because of the region’s population growth and large Hispanic community.

Many economists have taken up the question of how immigration affects the labor market. The answers that emerge are layered. Research shows that immigrants often create jobs by driving up demand for food, cars and services. When economists studied the effects of 400,000 deportations of unauthorized immigrants between 2008 and 2013, they found that for every 100 people removed from the labor market because of deportations, there were nine fewer jobs for U.S.-born workers.

Unauthorized immigrants also fill jobs that native-born workers depend upon but don’t want to do themselves, at least at the wages offered, in fields including child care, construction and agriculture. But other research shows that can have a negative effect on the wages of some U.S.-born workers, like high school dropouts.

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The short-term effects of a sudden, large-scale deportation can be jarring. After nearly 400 workers were arrested in the raid of a meatpacking plant in Iowa in 2008, the local economy suffered: The plant filed for bankruptcy and small businesses shut down.

People bike in downtown Bentonville, Ar. Northwest Arkansas is the 15th fastest-growing region in the country, and much of that population growth is driven by immigrant workers.

Chase Castor for The New York Times

Some business leaders in Arkansas are candid about the potential economic and labor force problems that could arise from mass deportations.

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“It would certainly cause disruption and angst,” said Nelson Peacock, who leads the Northwest Arkansas Council, which was created by major employers like Walmart and Tyson to promote economic development.

Seated in a Fayetteville, Ark., coffee shop, Mr. Peacock said his organization hoped to start a program helping regional employers secure legal services for their immigrant workers, especially those who can’t fill out English paperwork or afford legal fees.

Mr. Peacock has observed with alarm the tense national debates about the immigrant community in Springfield, Ohio, which Mr. Vance said has been “overwhelmed” by Haitian newcomers.

“We don’t have this thinking that people are being displaced,” Mr. Peacock said. “We, in fact, have 11,000 open jobs.”

In Northwest Arkansas, Mr. Peacock said, people tend to recognize how much the regional economy depends on its immigrant workers, though he doesn’t think that will stop people from supporting Mr. Trump.

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“I don’t know that it weighs into the way people vote,” he added.

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With the white nationalist group Patriot Front, what you see is not what you get

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With the white nationalist group Patriot Front, what you see is not what you get

Members of the group Patriot Front ride the subway as a commuter looks on, in Washington, D.C., on July 4.

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The sight of hundreds of masked men roaming the streets of Washington, D.C., on July Fourth weekend, wearing khakis, blue shirts and uniform patches, was chilling to some of the city’s residents.

For many Americans, it was the first they heard about Patriot Front, a white nationalist organization that was born out of the deadly 2017 Unite the Right rally in Charlottesville, Va. A now-viral Reuters photo prompted reflections on the experience of a lone African American woman who was photographed in a Metro subway car, surrounded by white supremacists.

The planned demonstration of force was timed to bring a fringe group of extremists into public view as the nation marked 250 years of its independence. Indeed, the stunt succeeded in earning the group media coverage across mainstream outlets, amplifying its brand and potential to reach new recruits. On this occasion, the members refrained from engaging in violence and property damage, projecting an image of law-abiding, orderly activism.

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But those who are closely familiar with Patriot Front’s history and operations warn: Don’t believe what you see.

“That is not who they are in private,” said Len Kamdang, director of the Criminal Justice Project at the Lawyers’ Committee for Civil Rights Under Law. “Although they were on their best behavior [last] weekend, this is a dangerous group that commits acts of violence all over the country.”

Patriot Front’s history of violence and property damage

Kamdang’s organization sued members of Patriot Front for vandalizing a public mural dedicated to the tennis legend and Black activist Arthur Ashe in Richmond, Va., in 2021. Ashe, who was inducted into the International Tennis Hall of Fame in 1985, was born in Richmond and his legacy is a continuing source of pride to members of that community.

“A couple of Patriot Front members showed up under cover of night and vandalized the mural,” Kamdang said. “They painted white stencils all over. … They literally tried to whitewash him and they put their symbols of hate all over — their stencils, their slogans. And all the while they were caught on video. And that video leaked using some of the most horrible language that you can imagine.”

In many jurisdictions, law enforcement can seek additional hate crime charges or sentencing enhancements in cases where illegal acts appear to have been motivated by racial bias. But in this case, Kamdang said, Patriot Front members faced no criminal charges and their identities were only revealed when online activists later infiltrated the group and leaked internal records.

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Graham Platner makes it official in Maine, submitting paperwork to leave Senate race

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Graham Platner makes it official in Maine, submitting paperwork to leave Senate race

Now-former Democratic Senate candidate Graham Platner speaks at his primary election night event on June 9 in Blue Hill, Maine. Platner officially dropped out of the race July 10 following rape allegations from a former romantic partner that he denies.

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Graham Platner, Maine’s Democratic nominee for Senate, is officially out of the race.

The Maine Secretary of State said Platner filed the necessary paperwork to withdraw his candidacy two days after he announced he planned to do so following an accusation of rape by a former romantic partner. Platner denies the allegation.

The Maine Democratic Party has until July 27 to pick Platner’s replacement.

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In his withdrawal notice, Platner said “people are desperate for change” and that’s why they voted “for a new kind of politics” by making him the Democratic nominee. He expressed gratitude for those who supported his campaign and said that he will continue to fight for “the movement we have built together and the future we believe in.”

He ended his notice with a strong statement aligned with the progressive platform.

“F*ck ICE. Free Palestine. Up the Hearts.”

Platner announced his plan to withdraw from the race in an 11-minute video he posted to social media on July 8. He said he had no choice but to suspend his campaign, citing it was no longer viable financially.

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“We are going to lose our ability to fundraise. We are going to lose our ability to access voter data. We are going to lose all of the things that any campaign needs on the basic level simply to function,” he said.

Platner added that dropping out was not an admission of guilt. Rather, the decision, he said, is to keep the progressive movement in Maine alive to defeat Republican Sen. Susan Collins in November. Platner blamed the “political establishment” for his downfall and argued the goal was to force him out of the race.

“We built a campaign. We engaged in electoral politics. We motivated people. We banded together. We did it the way that we were told we are supposed to make change and we won. And now they are not going to let us have it. Not if it’s me,” he said.

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Waymo called the cops on teen riders, raising privacy concerns

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Waymo called the cops on teen riders, raising privacy concerns

A Waymo robotaxi drives in San Francisco’s North Beach neighborhood this week.

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Police in San Mateo, Calif., posted Monday on social media that they had apprehended a pair of teenagers from a Waymo driverless robotaxi after the company alerted authorities to suspected criminal activity. It’s the latest incident involving video surveillance of passengers and others by autonomous vehicles — raising questions about the limits of privacy in such vehicles.

The Facebook post by the San Mateo County Police said: “Parents do you know where your teens are? @waymo does!”

The 15-year-olds were allegedly drinking alcohol and shooting toy guns from the car, according to the police. They said Waymo’s systems detected behavior that then triggered a safety response, after which the company disabled the vehicle and contacted police.

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Waymo’s cars, equipped with an array of cameras, microphones and other sensors to monitor passengers and other nearby vehicles, are becoming more common in cities across the United States. Experts say the detention of the two teens in San Mateo highlights a potential — but not inevitable — trade-off between privacy and convenience. It also questions the extent to which companies similar to Waymo are required to hand over private data, including audio and video of passengers, in situations where a crime is suspected.

NPR reached out to Waymo, which is owned by Alphabet, the parent company of Google, for comment on the details of the San Mateo incident and how the company responded, but did not hear back. But on its website, the company says that as many as 29 cameras in its autonomous cars provide an all-around view and “are designed with high dynamic range and thermal stability, to see in both daylight and low-light conditions, and tackle more complex environments.”

“There already exist laws that govern duty to report or even duty to protect” for carriers such as Waymo, according to Alessandro Acquisti, a professor of information technology at the MIT Sloan School of Management. “The privacy problems arise when and if driverless carrier companies used such laws or ethical obligations as a pretext for blanket, indiscriminate accumulation of identifiable data for unspecified future purposes.”

That includes not just monitoring people inside the cars, but outside too. Take, for example, a hit-and-run investigation last year in Los Angeles. Media reported that the police inquiry was aided by video captured by a Waymo taxi that had a clear view of the crime. Critics suggested at the time that authorities were using the company’s vehicles as a mobile surveillance platform. And during 2025 protests in Los Angeles against Immigration and Customs Enforcement crackdowns, demonstrators vandalized Waymos, apparently angry that video recorded by the vehicles could be used by police, although there is no evidence that happened.

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