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What does Elon Musk’s China trip mean for Tesla?

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What does Elon Musk’s China trip mean for Tesla?

Elon Musk appears to be on the cusp of deploying Tesla’s “full self-driving” system in the world’s biggest car market.

Musk flew out of Beijing on Monday after meeting China’s premier, Li Qiang, on Sunday and sealing a deal with Chinese tech giant Baidu to use the group’s mapping and navigation systems. Hours earlier, a Chinese industry group said Tesla’s EVs were among more than 70 cars that had been successfully tested for data security compliance.

Taken together, Musk appears to have smoothed the path for the US company’s semi-autonomous driving technology to be rolled out in China. Tesla’s share price closed 15.3 per cent higher on Monday at $194.05 on reports of the Baidu deal but remains at half of its 2022 peak.

Here is what the billionaire’s trip to China means for Tesla and the government in Beijing.

How much is Chinese approval worth to Tesla?

As sales fall and competition grows fiercer, Tesla has increasingly talked up the commercial opportunities that its self-driving technology offers.

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“Going balls to the wall on autonomy is a blindingly obvious move,” Musk wrote on X, his social media platform, this month.

Tom Narayan, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets, said income from autonomous driving accounted for a fifth of his share price target for Tesla. The carmaker charges US drivers $99 a month to activate “full self-driving”, a partially autonomous system that ostensibly chauffeurs drivers but still requires motorists to pay attention.

Being allowed to offer the same service in China, where the company has about 1.6mn cars on the road, “would unlock a significant fleet of Tesla vehicles able to charge subscription fees”, said Narayan.

The move into China would also “push Tesla further to be an industry standard for software,” he added, and encourage other carmakers to license its technology.

Dan Ives, an analyst at Wedbush, said Musk’s trip resulted in the “long-awaited FSD approval”, which amounted to a “watershed moment” for the company. Tesla’s long-term valuation “hinges” on income from autonomy, he said, and China had been a “missing piece of the puzzle”.

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“This is a key moment for Musk as well as Beijing at a time that Tesla has faced massive domestic EV competition in China along with softer demand,” he added.

Will new technology turn around slowing sales growth at Tesla? 

Tesla has put significant stock in the value of globalising its self-driving technology as its core EV line-up ages compared with newer products from its Chinese rivals.

While arch-rival BYD aims to launch cars within 18 months of conception, it has been four years since Tesla released the Model Y, its best-selling car. The company announced the Roadster sports car in 2017 but has yet to begin production.

Musk last week promised that a new lower-cost model was coming next year. But despite a “refreshed” Model 3 entering production this year, the company is still nurturing a product offering that is significantly older than that of its competitors.

“The Tesla range is looking quite old,” said one former Tesla executive. “The [battery] tech is fine, but there are others out there, especially the Chinese, who are arguably better. The question [if he deploys FSD], is how much longer does he have a technology advantage on that?”

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Expansion in China will be a test of how Tesla’s self-driving technology stacks up against local rivals. “They are betting it is the tech that makes or breaks a purchase decision,” said the former executive. 

But it is not clear how confident consumers outside of urban areas are in the technology. “FSD works in Silicon Valley but not in Illinois,” added the former executive. “For the mass market it is still witchcraft.”

Why is helping Tesla important to China?

Under President Xi Jinping, many experts believe China has prioritised security over economic growth and domestic technology independence over integration with the outside world.

Angela Zhang, a professor of law at the University of Hong Kong and author of two books on Chinese technology regulation, said there were signs that Beijing was “easing” its approach as it needed foreign investment to shore up an economy in “deep trouble”.

Chinese EV producers want to dominate global markets and Beijing has a “strong incentive” to show the world that data security issues are not a barrier to international trade for Chinese EVs, she said.

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Feng Chucheng, a partner at China-focused Hutong Research, said allowing Tesla’s self-driving technology had “strategic value” to Beijing.

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The Cyberspace Administration of China has for several years been rolling out a sweeping legal framework for how businesses collect and use data, with strict rules on cross-border data flows and data viewed as a risk to Chinese security or citizens.

Despite western concerns about “over-securitisation”, the recent development of China’s data rules has been more “pro-growth”, Feng said. Beijing has been aligning its rules on outbound data transfer in line with the CPTPP and DEPA, two key regional trade pacts.

“Tesla’s rollout in China will be much desired for Beijing to prove that its data regulatory regime is gaining traction,” he said.

Can Tesla win back the Chinese market?

China is Tesla’s biggest market outside the US, a vital part of the supply chain for its electric vehicles and of growing importance as a regional export hub. Musk’s decision in 2018 to build a multibillion-dollar factory in Shanghai is credited with helping to spearhead the rapid growth of China’s EV industry.

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But since then, the Chinese EV industry has stormed ahead. Tesla’s share of new electric vehicle sales stands at 7.5 per cent compared with 33 per cent for Warren Buffett-backed BYD. A core complaint from Chinese consumers has been the dearth of new Tesla models and high-tech features.

Despite the share price jump on Monday, analysts in China voiced caution.

Tom Nunlist, an expert in Chinese technology regulation with Beijing-based consultancy Trivium, said China’s regulatory environment was “still emerging”. “The folks that are overseeing the safety of automatic driving on highways are highly professional. They’re not going to relax their standards because of this [Musk’s visit],” he said.

Tu Le, founder of the Sino Auto Insights consultancy, said local rivals including Xpeng, Nio and Li Auto had their own self-driving systems and would drop their prices “the second” they thought consumers favoured Tesla’s technology. “Western analysts think Tesla automatically wins,” he said. “There are no guarantees.”

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Corporate Japan’s $77bn in property gains offer target for activists

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Corporate Japan’s $77bn in property gains offer target for activists

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Japanese companies outside the real estate sector generated more than $77bn in paper profits last year from their non-core property portfolios, increasing pressure on them as investors demand asset sales to unlock value. 

The paper profits were spread across more than 250 companies in industries ranging from food production and glass manufacturing to advertising and financial services — many of them businesses that built property empires in the 1980s and have never needed to sell them.

The calculation of their 2023 gains by analysts at Goldman Sachs has emerged ahead of the June annual meeting season — the 10-day stint at the end of next month during which more than 2,000 listed companies meet shareholders.

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Legal and banking advisers said the season would probably generate more friction than previous years, in part because of pressure on companies from the Tokyo Stock Exchange to focus on capital efficiency and valuations.

The glut of unrealised property gains last year follows 10 years in which prices of Japanese commercial property and condominiums have risen, and where, unlike London, New York and Hong Kong, remote working has not taken hold and Tokyo office vacancies remain low post-pandemic.

Actual real estate companies, such as Mitsubishi Estate and Tokyo Tatemono, have performed strongly, with shares for the sector up more than 20 per cent since January.

But Goldman’s Japan equity strategist, Bruce Kirk, said companies were under pressure from shareholders to justify their non-core businesses, and the vast property portfolios looked anomalous. 

Bankers who have advised Japanese companies on dealing with activists said that where investors once saw the property portfolios as a peculiarity, their existence now painted a target on companies and made them vulnerable to shareholder campaigns.

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Goldman’s report focused on about 250 companies in the Topix index that were not real estate specialists but had business segments operating their real estate assets. 

Accounting changes made in 2010 obliged companies to disclose the book value of properties held for investment or rental, along with an estimate of market value. The difference between those two figures produces an annual reckoning of unrealised gains or losses on the property, which in many cases is office space.

Between them, those companies declared $77bn of paper gains in 2023 — not far off the $89bn of paper gains declared by the Japanese real estate industry itself.

Recent high-profile activist fund engagements with Japanese companies, including Elliott Management’s tussle with Dai Nippon Printing, have focused on non-core property assets.

“The potential value unlock from undervalued non-core real estate provides investors with yet another pressure point to focus on during their discussions with Japanese corporate management,” said Kirk.

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He added there was likely to be some debate around the definition of core versus non-core, and his screening of companies with large non-core real estate portfolios deliberately omitted Japan’s railway companies, which hold significant properties around their stations.

“The corporate governance momentum is definitely on the side of investors at the moment,” said Kirk. “This could encourage a lot more scrutiny of the reasons why non-real estate companies have such extensive portfolios of real estate assets during this year’s AGM season.”

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Trump's social media account shares a campaign video with a headline about a 'unified Reich'

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Trump's social media account shares a campaign video with a headline about a 'unified Reich'

NEW YORK (AP) — A video posted to Donald Trump’s account on his social media network Monday included references to a “unified Reich” among hypothetical news headlines if he wins the election in November.

The headline appears among messages flashing across the screen such as “Trump wins!!” and “Economy booms!” Other headlines appear to be references to World War I.

The word “Reich” is often largely associated with Nazi Germany’s Third Reich, though the references in the video Trump shared appear to be a reference to the formation of the modern pan-German nation, unifying smaller states into a single Reich, or empire, in 1871.

The 30-second video appeared on Trump’s account at a time when the presumptive Republican nominee for president, while seeking to portray President Joe Biden as soft on antisemitism, has himself repeatedly faced criticism for using language and rhetoric associated with Nazi Germany.

It was posted and shared on the former president’s Truth Social account while he was on a lunch break from his Manhattan hush money trial.

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“This was not a campaign video, it was created by a random account online and reposted by a staffer who clearly did not see the word, while the President was in court,” Karoline Leavitt, the campaign press secretary, said in a statement.

Earlier this month, Trump said at a fundraiser that Biden is running a “Gestapo administration,” referring to the secret Nazi police force.

What to know about the 2024 Election

Trump previously used rhetoric echoing Adolf Hitler when he said immigrants entering the U.S. illegally are “poisoning the blood of our country,” and called his opponents “vermin.”

The former president has also drawn wide backlash for having dined with a Holocaust-denying white nationalist in 2022 and for downplaying the 2017 rally in Charlottesville, Virginia, where white nationalists chanted “Jews will not replace us!”

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At least one of the headlines flashing in the video appears to be text that is copied verbatim from a Wikipedia entry on World War I: “German industrial strength and production had significantly increased after 1871, driven by the creation of a unified Reich.”

In one image, the headlines “Border Is Closed” and “15 Million Illegal Aliens Deported” appear above smaller text with the start and end dates of World War I.

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Democrat donors warn Joe Biden that stance on Gaza could threaten re-election

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Democrat donors warn Joe Biden that stance on Gaza could threaten re-election

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A top donor to US President Joe Biden has called on him to halt arms shipments to Israel, warning that the “catastrophe” of the Israel-Hamas war has imperilled his re-election bid.

George Krupp, who expects to raise $2.5mn at a fundraiser he is co-hosting in Boston on Tuesday, urged Biden to take the issue “off the table” by suspending arms shipments to Israel. 

“I think this Israel thing has been a catastrophe for him,” Krupp told the Financial Times. “I absolutely think that Biden needs to suspend arms shipments both for humanitarian and political reasons.”

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The president’s stance on the war has divided Democrats across religious and generational lines. He has strongly supported Israel’s right to defend itself in response to the October 7 Hamas attacks.

On Monday he described the International Criminal Court’s application for arrest warrants against Israeli leaders as “outrageous”, adding: “We will always stand with Israel against threats to its security.”

But there has been growing criticism within the party over his failure to rein in the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as the death toll in its war against Hamas has soared to more than 34,000, according to Palestinian officials.

The president this month paused a shipment of bombs to Israel over Netanyahu’s refusal to rule out an invasion of the Gazan city of Rafah, but last week he approved a $1bn package of military aid to the country. In April the US vetoed of a Security Council resolution that would have granted a Palestinian state full membership of the UN.

There are fears that young voters opposed to Israel’s military offensive in Gaza could desert Biden over the issue, while pro-Israeli Democrats could turn to Donald Trump.

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More than 100,000 Democrats — or 13 per cent of the total vote — in Michigan, which has a large Arab-American community, voted “uncommitted” in the March 15 Democratic presidential primary over Biden’s stance.

Krupp, who signed a letter in March along with dozens of other donors and activists expressing their concern about “the crisis in Gaza”, told the FT that Biden’s “equivocation” over the war is “hurting” his re-election campaign. He added that the president needs a clear “doctrine” that “gets Israel out of Gaza and lays out a path to a two state solution”.

Krupp’s comments came after Democratic mega donor Haim Saban criticised Biden’s decision to halt the heavy weapons shipment to Israel. 

“Bad, Bad, Bad, decision, on all levels, Pls reconsider,” Saban wrote in an email to White House senior officials last week. “There are more Jewish voters, who care about Israel, than Muslim voters that care about Hamas,” he added in comments that were criticised by the Council on American-Islamic Relations and other civil rights groups. A representative for Saban declined to comment.

Democrats hope the party will unite to prevent a Trump victory. They point out that the former president called for a ban on Muslim immigrants in 2015. Biden has also been far more successful at raising funds, attracting $66mn more than Trump by the end of March.

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“Donald Trump’s actions against the Muslim community as president are abhorrent,” New York Governor Kathy Hochul told the FT. “I support the president, how he’s handling this . . . [Israel needs] to eradicate Hamas but we also need to make sure the loss of innocent lives is mitigated.”

Patricia Gordon, a board member of the liberal, pro-Israel group J Street, who has hosted a fundraiser with first lady Jill Biden, said she also supported Biden’s approach to Israel and was confident that he would prevail.

“The president will always defend Israel, but recently took the difficult step to prevent the misuse of American resources in an offensive way,” Gordon said.

But with opinion polls favouring Trump, Krupp and many Democrats fear that the Gaza war could tip the balance against the president.

“I think if the election were held today, I think he’d lose,” said Krupp.

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Additional reporting by Jude Webber in Dublin

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