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Want to know November's election outcome? Washington's primary may be a crystal ball

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Want to know November's election outcome? Washington's primary may be a crystal ball

In this file photo, a person drops off a ballot at a drop box during the presidential primary election on Tuesday, March 12 in Seattle. Washington state is reliably Democratic in its voting, but its late summer top-two primary has predictive power for how the nation feels about the two main political parties.

Manuel Valdes/AP


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Manuel Valdes/AP

The mantra “past performance is no guarantee of future results” applies to many things, including trying to predict election results ahead of time. But how many voters in a deep blue state showed up in this month’s primary – and how they voted – may provide insight into the political environment in November.

Election data analysts point to Washington state’s primary results as a useful barometer of which party is likely to win the national popular vote for the House of Representatives and to what degree.

Here’s how to do it: add up the total votes for Democrats and Republicans in Washington’s 10 House district primaries. Then, take the difference between them and subtract 12 to get a rough estimate of the predicted House margin in November.

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An NPR analysis of the Washington primary using this framework estimates that Democrats could win the national popular vote by about 4 points, which is slightly more than the 2020 presidential election that saw them narrowly win the White House and control of both chambers of Congress.

In other words, it will likely be yet another close race.

This year, Democrats won about 57.3% of the Congressional primary vote to Republicans’ 41.3%, or a margin of 16%. Subtract 12 percentage points, and you get that estimate of a 4% popular vote victory for Democrats later this year.

Current presidential polling averages have Vice President Harris leading former President Donald Trump by about 3% heading into the Democratic National Convention, and the most recent NPR/PBS News/Marist poll also found Harris up by 3%, suggesting a similar national environment could be waiting in November.

In recent elections, the framework has also hinted at the direction of public sentiment ahead of the general elections, like the 2022 midterms. Democrats finished with a 10.4% margin in Washington’s primary election, a down year that suggested Republicans were favored by about 1.6%, closer to the final national popular vote advantage of about 2.8% for the GOP in the House.

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In 2020, a 14% primary margin suggested a 2% popular vote victory for Democrats, which ended up being closer to 3%. 2018’s “blue wave” that saw Democrats win the House popular vote with a roughly 8.5% margin was foreshadowed by Washington’s primary that saw a 20.4 % Democratic margin across its Congressional seats.

Why Washington state?

J. Miles Coleman, Associate Editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at University of Virginia Center for Politics, says Washington’s predictive power is driven by a few unique factors.

“One, the primary is open to all voters, and two, it occurs relatively late in the primary season,” he said. “Down-ballot primaries in other states usually begin in March, so it almost has a feel of being a ‘dress rehearsal’ for the fall election.”

Unlike many other primaries, Washington’s election sees all candidates from all parties on the same ballot, with the top two vote-getters proceeding to the general election. There are often more candidates and more ideological options for voters to express their preferences under the umbrella of the two major parties.

“This, combined with the very high turnout we see in this election – not quite at the level of a general election, but far better than most primaries – makes it much more representative,” Lakshya Jain, CEO of the elections modeling website Split Ticket, said. “It’s also a state that’s roughly as white as the nation is and just a few points more educated, meaning that it’s at least somewhat representative of the overall electorate.”

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Jain said the Washington primary indicates an election cycle that is definitely driven by Democratic enthusiasm, but not to the degree of “blue wave” election years like 2018.

“The fact that Democrats are substantially outperforming their 2022 numbers bodes very well for them, especially given that they almost kept the House that year,” he added. “I will say that basically everything that’s been going on of late seems good for them — polling has surged in their direction, and the primary results and specials broadly all seem good for them.”

That said, the Washington primary shorthand should not be used as absolute gospel to be applied equally because there are 435 House races, 33 Senate races and 50 state-level presidential elections that all have their own quirks and local electorates that change how useful the estimate may be.

There are only a small handful of competitive House, Senate and presidential battlegrounds, so increased Democratic turnout and enthusiasm in noncompetitive races could lead to a higher national popular vote victory without winning those races, for example.

Coleman added that a third presidential election cycle that has been dominated by Trump means low-propensity voters that support him and no other candidate are another group to watch for as well.

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“While there are some promising signs for Democrats, the Washington primary being one of them, to me, one X-factor lingering over the election is the question of how many of those voters Trump will bring out.”

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German economy shrinks for second consecutive year

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German economy shrinks for second consecutive year

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Germany’s economy shrank for a second straight year in 2024, underlining the severity of the downturn facing Europe’s manufacturing powerhouse.

The Federal Statistics Office said on Wednesday that Europe’s largest economy contracted by 0.2 per cent last year, after shrinking by 0.3 per cent in 2023. Economists had expected a decline of 0.2 per cent.

“Germany is experiencing the longest stagnation of its postwar history by far,” said Timo Wollmershäuser, economist at Ifo, a Munich-based economic think-tank, adding that the country was also underperforming significantly in an international comparison.

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Confirmation that Germany is suffering one of the most protracted economic crises in decades comes six weeks ahead of a crucial snap election.

Campaigning has been dominated by the spectre of deindustrialisation, crumbling infrastructure and whether or not the country should abandon a debt brake that constrains public spending.

Friedrich Merz, head of the centre-right Christian Democratic Union who is likely to be Germany’s next chancellor, is campaigning on a reform agenda, promising to cut red tape and taxes and dial back welfare benefits for people who are not working.

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While private sector output contracted, government consumption rose sharply by 2.6 per cent compared with 2023.

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Ruth Brand, president of the Federal Statistics Office, blamed “cyclical and structural pressures” for the poor performance, pointing to “increasing competition for the German export industry, high energy costs, an interest rate level that remains high and an uncertain economic outlook.”

In the three months to December, output fell by 0.1 per cent compared with the third quarter.

Robin Winkler, chief economist for Germany at Deutsche Bank, said the contraction in the fourth quarter came as a “surprise” and was “concerning”.

“If this is confirmed, the economy would have lost further momentum by the end of the year,” he said, suggesting this was probably driven by “political uncertainty in Berlin and Washington”.

The Bundesbank said last month that stagnation was set to continue this year, predicting growth of just 0.1 per cent and warning that a trade war with the US would trigger another year of economic contraction.

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US president-elect Donald Trump has pledged to impose blanket tariffs of up to 20 per cent on all US imports.

Germany is struggling with a crisis in its automotive industry fuelled by Chinese competition and an expensive transition to electric cars, alongside high energy costs and tepid consumer demand.

Output in manufacturing contracted by 3 per cent, the statistics office said on Wednesday, while corporate investment fell by 2.8 per cent.

Germany has in effect seen no meaningful economic growth since the start of the pandemic, with industrial production hovering more than 10 per cent below its peak while unemployment has started to rise again after it fell to record lows.

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Trump’s attorney general pick to face scrutiny on first day of Senate hearing

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Trump’s attorney general pick to face scrutiny on first day of Senate hearing

Pam Bondi, Donald Trump’s nominee for attorney general, is expected to face scrutiny on Wednesday during the first day of her confirmation hearing about her ability to resist the White House from exerting political pressure on the justice department.

The hearing, before the Senate judiciary committee, comes at a crunch time for the department, which has faced unrelenting criticism from Trump after its prosecutors charged him in two federal criminal cases and is about to see Trump’s personal lawyers in those cases take over key leadership positions.

Bondi, the first female Florida attorney general and onetime lobbyist for Qatar, was not on the legal team defending Trump in those federal criminal cases. But she has been a longtime presence in his orbit, including when she worked to defend Trump at his first impeachment trial.

She also supported Trump’s fabricated claims of election fraud in 2020, which helped her become Trump’s nominee for attorney general almost immediately after Matt Gaetz, the initial pick, withdrew as he found himself dogged by a series of sexual misconduct allegations.

That loyalty to Trump has raised hackles at the justice department, which prides itself on its independence from White House pressure and recalls with a deep fear how Trump in his first term ousted top officials when they stopped acquiescing to his demands.

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Trump replaced his first attorney general, Jeff Sessions, after he recused himself from the investigation into the Trump campaign’s contacts with Russia and, later, soured on his last attorney general, Bill Barr, after he refused to endorse Trump’s false 2020 election claims.

Bondi is also expected to be questioned about her prosecutorial record as the Florida attorney general and possible conflicts of interest arising from her most recent work for the major corporate lobbying firm Ballard Partners.

During her tenure as Florida attorney general, in 2013, Bondi’s office received nearly two dozen complaints about Trump University and her aides have said she once considered joining a multi-state lawsuit brought on behalf of students who claimed they had been cheated.

As she was weighing the lawsuit, Bondi’s political action committee received a $25,000 contribution from a non-profit funded by Trump. While Trump and Bondi both deny a quid pro quo, Bondi never joined the lawsuit and Trump had to pay a $2,500 fine for violating tax laws to make the donation.

As the chair of Ballard’s corporate regulatory compliance practice, Bondi lobbied for major companies that have battled the justice department she will be tasked with leading, including in various antitrust and fraud lawsuits.

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Bondi was a county prosecutor in Florida before successfully running for Florida attorney general in 2010 in part due to regular appearances on Fox News.

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Video: Fires Continue to Burn One Week Later in California

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Video: Fires Continue to Burn One Week Later in California

new video loaded: Fires Continue to Burn One Week Later in California

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Fires Continue to Burn One Week Later in California

The Palisades and Eaton fires, ravaging Los Angeles for more than a week, remain mostly uncontained by firefighters.

“We just had — just had Christmas morning right over here, right in front of that chimney. And this is what’s left.” “I urge, and everybody here urges, you to remain alert as danger has not yet passed. Please follow all evacuation warnings and orders without delay and prioritize your safety.”

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