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Ukraine’s bonds jump as investors bet Trump will end war

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Ukraine’s bonds jump as investors bet Trump will end war

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Ukraine’s sovereign bonds have surged in price as investors bet that the incoming US administration will push for a quick end to the war with Russia.

The dollar-denominated bonds have risen 12 per cent in the past month, in expectation that the re-election of Donald Trump will lead to a ceasefire and boost Ukraine’s capacity to repay creditors.

The jump in the price of Ukrainian bonds, which one investor in the country called “the unlikeliest Trump trade ever”, comes as bets relating to the new administration have swept global financial markets in recent weeks.

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Trump has said he will end the war in Ukraine “within a day” of returning to the White House, though he has not offered specifics on how this would be achieved.

The rally has come just over two months after Kyiv completed a restructuring of more than $20bn of debt in one of the fastest and biggest sovereign debt workouts in modern history.

Bond investors are betting that the country will be prepared to accept a peace deal that involves permanently giving up territory it has lost in the war, and that its economy will recover quickly in the years ahead.

“The main part of the trade has really been based on the war ending, or at least the possibility of Trump pushing through the start of negotiations,” said Thys Louw, portfolio manager at Ninety One, which owns some Ukrainian bonds.

Among investors to own significant holdings of Ukrainian debt is fund manager BlackRock, which was a member of the bondholder committee that led the restructuring talks. BlackRock declined to comment.

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Ukrainian debt has outperformed emerging market indices since mid-October, when markets began to price in a Trump election victory.

Ukraine’s bond maturing in 2036 has risen from 44 to 49 cents on the dollar over the past month. So-called “GDP warrants” — debt securities issued under an older debt restructuring that will benefit from the country’s return of growth — having climbed even more sharply.

A bond owed by Ukrenergo, Ukraine’s state grid operator, has rallied more than 160 per cent this year to 67 cents on the dollar, despite renewed Russian attacks on infrastructure.

London-based hedge fund firm Shiprock Capital has profited from the jump in the warrants and Ukrainian corporate debt and is up 31 per cent this year to the end of October, according to an investor letter seen by the Financial Times.

Shiprock did not respond to a request for comment.

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During the early stages of the war, bondholders agreed to a halt on Kyiv’s interest payments. The September restructuring, which is designed to pave the way for Ukraine’s return to bond markets, ended the two-year freeze.

Under the September deal, investors agreed to take losses of more than a third on their bonds to help Ukraine control its surging wartime deficits — years before official creditors such as the UK, the US, Germany and Japan are set to restructure their own debts.

In return for agreeing to accept upfront losses, bondholders were also given the chance to receive higher payouts if Ukraine’s war-ravaged economy beats growth targets in the years ahead.

Some investors have cautioned that the outlook for Ukraine’s bonds is far from clear.

Mohammed Elmi, a portfolio manager at Federated Hermes, said he was sceptical of the market’s belief in Trump’s ability to secure a rapid peace deal.

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“I don’t fully subscribe to that kind of bullish view,” he said. “There is still a significant amount of unanswered questions” about where a settlement would leave Ukraine’s postwar economy and whether it would be a priority for the new US administration.

“Trump has a lot to do, with a big policy agenda to go through. These negotiations could also be quite prolonged,” he said.

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Russia fires intercontinental ballistic missile at Ukraine for first time

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Russia fires intercontinental ballistic missile at Ukraine for first time

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Russia has fired an intercontinental ballistic missile for the first time since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, following days of escalation in the conflict.

Ukrainian air defence forces said the missile, which did not carry a nuclear warhead, was fired alongside seven Kh-101 cruise missiles at the southern city of Dnipro.

The use of the ICBM comes after Ukraine launched US-made long-range Atacms missiles and British Storm Shadows at Russian territory in recent days.

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Responding to the Atacms strikes, Russia altered its nuclear doctrine to lower its threshold for first use. ICBMs are designed to carry nuclear warheads across continents, by contrast with so-called short- and medium-range missiles.

Their range of thousands of miles is far greater than that of missiles such as Atacms and Storm Shadows, which can travel 250km to 300km.

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Russia has previously used nuclear-capable missiles to hit Ukraine, albeit with shorter ranges. Russian forces have repeatedly fired ground-launched Iskander short-range ballistic missiles and the air-launched hypersonic Kinzhal missile, both of which are capable of carrying nuclear warheads.

Ukraine said it had intercepted six of the Russian missiles. It added that the ICBM had been launched from Russia’s southern Astrakhan region. It did not specify what kind of ICBM had been used.

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Two people were injured in the attack, according to local authorities.

This is a developing story

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Sarah McBride: Republican speaker backs proposal to ban transgender women from women's restrooms in US Congress, Sarah McBride responds | World News – Times of India

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Sarah McBride: Republican speaker backs proposal to ban transgender women from women's restrooms in US Congress, Sarah McBride responds | World News – Times of India

After House Speaker Mike Johnson indicated support for Republic proposal preventing Trans Congresswoman elected from Delaware Sarah McBride from using women’s restrooms in the Capitol , McBride said that she will use the men’s restroom on Capitol Hill. In her statement, she said that she is not here to fight about bathrooms but to fight for Delawareans.
She added, “I’m not here to fight about bathrooms. I’m here to fight for Delawareans and to bring down costs facing families. Like all members, I will follow the rules as outlined by Speaker Johnson, even if I disagree with them.”

She further said, “This effort to distract from the real issues facing this country hasn’t distracted me over the last several days, as I’ve remained hard at work preparing to represent the greatest state in the union come January.”
She stated, “Serving in the 119th Congress will be the honor of a lifetime and I continue to look forward to getting to know my future colleagues on both sides of the aisle. Each of us were sent here because voters saw something in us that they value. I have loved getting to see those qualities in the future colleagues that I’ve met and I look forward to seeing those qualities in every member come January. I hope all of my colleagues will seek to do the same with me.”
House Speaker Mike Johnson indicated support on Tuesday for a Republican proposal to prevent Representative-elect Sarah McBride, the first transgender woman elected to Congress, from using women’s restrooms in the Capitol. This restriction would take effect when McBride assumes office next year.
“We’re not going to have men in women’s bathrooms,” Johnson told The Associated Press. “I’ve been consistent about that with anyone I’ve talked to about this.”
The proposal, introduced by Republican Representative Nancy Mace of South Carolina, aims to prohibit lawmakers and House employees from “using single-sex facilities other than those corresponding to their biological sex.” Mace confirmed that the bill specifically targets McBride, who recently won the election in Delaware.
Democrats, including McBride, criticized the Republican initiative, labeling it as “bullying” and a “distraction.”
“This is a blatant attempt from far right-wing extremists to distract from the fact that they have no real solutions to what Americans are facing,” McBride said. “We should be focused on bringing down the cost of housing, health care, and child care, not manufacturing culture wars.”
The debate surrounding bathroom access for transgender individuals has gained significant traction nationwide and was a key point in President-elect Donald Trump’s campaign. Currently, at least 11 states have enacted legislation barring transgender girls and women from using female restrooms in public schools and, in certain instances, other government facilities.
Despite potential challenges, Mace expressed her determination to proceed. “If it’s not,” she said. “I’ll be ready to pick up the mantle.”

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Indian billionaire Gautam Adani charged in US over alleged $250mn bribery scheme

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Indian billionaire Gautam Adani charged in US over alleged 0mn bribery scheme

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Indian billionaire Gautam Adani has been charged by federal prosecutors in New York in connection with an alleged years-long scheme to bribe Indian officials in exchange for favourable terms on solar power contracts projected to bring in more than $2bn in profit.

The 62-year-old tycoon, who chairs the multinational conglomerate Adani Group and has been a vocal supporter of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, was indicted in Brooklyn on charges including securities fraud alongside seven others, including executives of Adani energy subsidiaries and former employees of a Canadian pension fund.

His nephew Sagar Adani, who is the executive director at a renewables company founded by Gautam Adani, is also among the defendants.

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US prosecutors said more than $250mn in bribes were paid between 2020 and 2024 to people in the Indian government as part of the scheme, which was allegedly concealed from the US banks and investors from which they raised billions of dollars.

They claimed that Gautam Adani met with an Indian official to “advance” the scheme.

The US attorney’s office in Brooklyn also charged three former employees of large Canadian pension fund CDPQ in connection with the alleged scheme, saying they obstructed an investigation into the bribes by deleting emails and agreeing to provide false information to the US government. CDPQ, which invests in infrastructure projects, is a shareholder in Adani companies.

The indictments threaten to reignite a reputational crisis for Adani Group, which has been trying to move past claims of accounting fraud and stock market manipulation made last year by US short seller Hindenburg Research.

“This indictment alleges schemes to pay over $250 million in bribes to Indian government officials,” US deputy assistant attorney-general Lisa Miller said. “These offences were allegedly committed by senior executives and directors to obtain and finance massive state energy supply contracts through corruption and fraud at the expense of US investors.”

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Prosecutors further alleged that the defendants “extensively documented their corrupt efforts” on mobile phones, on PowerPoint presentations and in Excel spreadsheets “that summarised various options for paying and concealing bribe payments”.

In a parallel civil lawsuit, the US Securities and Exchange Commission said the alleged bribes were paid in order to “secure [the Indian government’s] commitment to purchase energy at above-market rates that would benefit Adani Green and Azure Power”, two renewable energy companies in India.

Adani Green, which is building one of the largest solar plants in the world at Khavda in India’s western state of Gujarat, raised more than $175mn from US investors as part of a $750mn corporate bond while the scheme was ongoing, US regulators said.

Gautam Adani and Sagar Adani allegedly “induced US investors to buy Adani Green bonds through an offering process that misrepresented not only that Adani Green had a robust anti-bribery compliance programme but also that the company’s senior management had not and would not pay or promise to pay bribes”, said Sanjay Wadhwa, acting director at the SEC’s enforcement division. 

According to the regulator’s complaint, Sagar Adani allegedly told Azure executives and others about “incentives”, or bribes, he had been proposing to “motivate” state officials to agree contracts with the Indian government’s arm responsible for implementing renewable energy programmes.

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Adani and Azure did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

In a statement, CDPQ said: “CDPQ is aware of charges filed in the US against certain former employees. Those employees were all terminated in 2023 and CDPQ is co-operating with US authorities. In light of the pending cases, we have no further comment at this time.”

The Indian group’s founder has over the past two decades built Adani into one of India’s most formidable industrial groups, diversifying from its core ports and trading business into mining, airports, coal and renewable power.

Outside India it has built or bid for power, port and other infrastructure projects in several countries, including Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Israel, where it operates the port of Haifa.

In a post on X congratulating Donald Trump on his US election victory earlier this month, Adani said his group was “committed to leveraging its global expertise” and would invest $10bn in American energy security and infrastructure projects as part of the partnership between India and the US, with the aim of creating up to 15,000 jobs.

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Adani’s rise in business, first in Gujarat then nationally, has coincided with the Indian state’s drive to harness private-sector expertise and capital to develop neglected transport and other infrastructure, which has accelerated during Modi’s decade in power.

As shares of his listed companies rose, in 2022 Adani briefly overtook rival billionaire Mukesh Ambani to become Asia’s richest man. 

The Indian National Congress party’s Rahul Gandhi, who became India’s opposition leader after this year’s general election, called for an investigation after the Hindenburg allegations and questioned Adani’s record of winning government tenders, as well as his close ties with ruling politicians including Modi, who is also from Gujarat.

The Adani Group dismissed the Hindenburg report as an “attack on India” and has repeatedly denied wrongdoing. His companies’ share prices have since rebounded.

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