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Trump vs Biden: who is winning with six months to go?

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Trump vs Biden: who is winning with six months to go?

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Donald Trump has a small polling lead over Joe Biden in the critical swing states with six months to go before US voters elect their next president on November 5.

It marks a stunning reversal for Trump, who exited the White House in 2021 with a record-low approval rating of 29 per cent after a mob of his supporters stormed the Capitol on January 6 in a bid to overturn his electoral loss.

More registered voters now view Biden’s presidency to be a failure compared with Trump’s, according to a recent CNN poll — 55 per cent of US respondents said Trump’s presidency was a success compared with 39 per cent for Biden.

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Biden’s approval rating has dropped by 19 percentage points since the start of his presidency, to 35 per cent in April, according to Pew Research.

Still, the 2024 election looks to be an exceptionally close rematch of the 2020 race, when just 43,000 votes out of 155mn cast delivered victory for Biden. 

With six months to go, here is where the race stands.

What are the polls saying right now?

National polling has been tight. Trump and Biden are both polling just above 40 per cent, with Trump currently holding a slender edge of 0.8 percentage points, well within bounds of statistical error, according to FiveThirtyEight’s averages. The independent candidate Robert F Kennedy Jr has been polling at about 10 per cent, though support for such candidates tends to be higher in pre-election polling than in actual elections.

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But US presidential elections are not decided by a national vote. Rather they are decided by winner-takes-all contests in the 50 states, which send electors to the Electoral College. Whichever candidate secures 270 of the 538 Electoral College votes becomes president.

In seven crucial “swing states” — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — Trump leads Biden by between one and six points.

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What are the issues that will decide the election — and who’s leading on them?

The top priority for US voters remains the economy — an issue that has boosted Trump against Biden. 

Overall, 41 per cent of voters trust Trump with the economy, compared with just 35 per cent for Biden, according to the latest Financial Times poll conducted with the University of Michigan Ross School of Business.

A recent CNN poll found that 65 per cent of registered voters called the economy “extremely” important to their vote — higher than any other issue — and near levels not seen since October 2008.

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While inflation has certainly hurt Biden, political views of the economy also play a role. Of those who said the economy was “poor”, 41 per cent said a change in political leadership in Washington would improve their perception of the economy, while 37 per cent said lower inflation and 14 per cent said better personal finances.

Other top issues include immigration — where polling suggests voters believe Trump is more competent than Biden — and protecting democracy, preserving abortion rights and lowering healthcare costs. Biden is stronger on the last three.

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Most Americans do not vote based on foreign policy. But voters have consistently said they think the US is spending too much on military and financial aid to Ukraine and Israel, according to monthly FT-Michigan Ross polling. This could help Trump.

Though Trump has not said that he will cut funding for either country, the former president has made clear that he expects other countries in Europe to step up their defence spending when it comes to countering Russia. Republicans have also stalled congressional efforts to approve aid to the two countries — only relenting in mid-April after months of deadlock.

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Perhaps even more important than the issues is how voters view Biden and Trump as people. 

A majority of voters say Trump, 77, is more physically and mentally fit than Biden, 81, but are less confident that Trump will act ethically in office. According to an April poll by Pew Research, 62 per cent of registered voters said they were not confident Biden is mentally up to the job, compared with 59 per cent who said they were not confident that Trump would act ethically.

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Trump is facing four criminal indictments, including federal and state charges that he conspired to overturn the 2020 election. A majority of independent Americans believe Trump is guilty in the four cases, according to a Politico Magazine/Ipsos poll. And 24 per cent of registered voters who support Trump say that if the former president is convicted, they might reconsider, according to a CNN poll.

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Who’s got more money and where is it being spent?

Biden has massively outraised Trump in the money race, leaving Biden groups with $66mn more on hand than Trump groups by the end of March.

Trump’s coffers have been drained by his legal fees. His donors have paid $76mn on Trump’s lawyers since January 2023 — 26 per cent of the total raised for the ex-president.

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Biden’s campaign has already spent more than $39mn on ads this year, according to AdImpact, compared with $25mn for Trump. But much of Trump’s ad spend went towards the presidential primary, as he fought off well-funded Republican challengers, including Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis.

Future Forward Pac, a pro-Biden super Pac that can raise unlimited sums, has already booked $130mn in ads beginning in September, targeting the seven swing states and Nebraska’s one electoral vote in Omaha.

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BBC Verify: Satellite image shows tanker seized by US near Venezuela is now off Texas

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BBC Verify: Satellite image shows tanker seized by US near Venezuela is now off Texas

Trump was listed as a passenger on eight flights on Epstein’s private jet, according to emailpublished at 11:58 GMT

Anthony Reuben
BBC Verify senior journalist

One of the Epstein documents, external is an email saying that “Donald Trump traveled on Epstein’s private jet many more times than previously has been reported (or that we were aware)”.

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The email was sent on 7 January 2020 and is part of an email chain which includes the subject heading ‘RE: Epstein flight records’.

The sender and recipient are redacted but at the bottom of the email is a signature for an assistant US attorney in the Southern District of New York – with the name redacted.

The email states: “He is listed as a passenger on at least eight flights between 1993 and 1996, including at least four flights on which Maxwell was also present. He is listed as having traveled with, among others and at various times, Marla Maples, his daughter Tiffany, and his son Eric”.

“On one flight in 1993, he and Epstein are the only two listed passengers; on another, the only three passengers are Epstein, Trump, and then-20-year-old” – with the person’s name redacted.

It goes on: “On two other flights, two of the passengers, respectively, were women who would be possible witnesses in a Maxwell case”.

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In 2022, Ghislaine Maxwell was sentenced to 20 years in prison, external for crimes including conspiracy to entice minors to travel to engage in illegal sex acts and sex trafficking of a minor.

Trump was a friend of Epstein’s for years, but the president has said they fell out in about 2004, years before Epstein was first arrested. Trump has consistently denied any wrongdoing in relation to Epstein and his presence on the flights does not indicate wrongdoing.

We have contacted the White House for a response to this particular file.

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‘Music makes everything better’: A Texas doctor spins vinyl to give patients relief

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‘Music makes everything better’: A Texas doctor spins vinyl to give patients relief

Dr. Tyler Jorgensen sets “A Charlie Brown Christmas” on a record player at Dell Seton Medical Center in Austin Texas. He uses vinyl records as a form of music therapy for palliative care patients.

Lorianne Willett/KUT News


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Lorianne Willett/KUT News

AUSTIN, TEXAS — Lying in her bed at Dell Seton Medical Center at the University of Texas at Austin, 64-year-old Pamela Mansfield sways her feet to the rhythm of George Jones’ “She Thinks I Still Care.” Mansfield is still recovering much of her mobility after a recent neck surgery, but she finds a way to move to the music floating from a record player that was wheeled into her room.

“Seems to be the worst part is the stiffness in my ankles and the no feeling in the hands,” she says. “But music makes everything better.”

The record player is courtesy of the ATX-VINyL program, a project dreamed up by Dr. Tyler Jorgensen to bring music to the bedside of patients dealing with difficult diagnoses and treatments. He collaborates with a team of volunteers who wheel the player on a cart to patients’ rooms, along with a selection of records in their favorite genres.

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“I think of this record player as a time machine,” he said. “You know, something starts spinning — an old, familiar song on a record player — and now you’re back at home, you’re out of the hospital, you’re with your family, you’re with your loved ones.”

UT Public Health Sophomore Daniela Vargas pushes a cart through Dell Seton Medical Center on December 9, 2025. The ATX VINyL program is designed to bring volunteers in to play music for patients in the hospital, and Vargas participates as the head volunteer. Lorianne Willett/KUT News

Daniela Vargas, a volunteer for the ATX-VINyL program, wheels a record player to the hospital room of a palliative care patient in Austin, Texas.

Lorianne Willett/KUT News


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The healing power of Country music… and Thin Lizzy

Mansfield wanted to hear country music: Willie Nelson, Merle Haggard, George Jones. That genre reminds her of listening to records with her parents, who helped form her taste in music. Almost as soon as the first record spins, she starts cracking jokes.

“I have great taste in music. Men, on the other hand … ehhh. I think my picker’s broken,” she says.

Other patients ask for jazz, R&B or holiday records.

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The man who gave Jorgensen the idea for ATX-VINyL loved classic rock. That was around three years ago, when Jorgensen, a long-time emergency medicine physician, began a fellowship in palliative care — a specialty aimed at improving quality of life for people with serious conditions, including terminal illnesses.

Shortly after he began the fellowship, he says he struggled to connect with a particular patient.

“I couldn’t draw this man out, and I felt like he was really struggling and suffering,” Jorgensen said.

He had the idea to try playing the patient some music.

He went with “The Boys Are Back in Town,” by the 1970s Irish rock group Thin Lizzy, and saw an immediate change in the patient.

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“He was telling me old stories about his life. He was getting more honest and vulnerable about the health challenges he was facing,” Jorgensen said. “And it just struck me that all this time I’ve been practicing medicine, there’s such a powerful tool that is almost universal to the human experience, which is music, and I’ve never tapped into it.”

Dr. Tyler Jorgensen, a palliative care doctor at Dell Seton Medical Center, holds a Willie Nelson album in an office on December 9, 2025. Ferguson said patients have been increasingly requesting country music and they had to source that genre specifically.

Dr. Tyler Jorgensen plays vinyl records as a form of music therapy for palliative care patients in Austin, Texas. Willie Nelson’s albums are a perennial hit.

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Creating new memories

Jorgensen realized records could lift the spirits of patients dealing with heavy circumstances in hospital spaces that are often aesthetically bare. And he thought vinyl would offer a more personal touch than streaming a digital track through a smartphone or speaker.

“There’s just something inherently warm about the friction of a record — the pops, the scratches,” he said. “It sort of resonates through the wooden record player, and it just feels different.”

Since then, he has built up a collection of 60 records and counting at the hospital. The most-requested album, by a landslide, is Fleetwood Mac’s Rumours from 1977. Willie is also popular, along with Etta James and John Denver. And around the holidays, the Vince Guaraldi Trio’s A Charlie Brown Christmas gets a lot of spins.

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These days, it’s often a volunteer who rolls the record player from room to room after consulting nursing staff about patients and family members who are struggling and could use a visit.

Daniela Vargas, the UT Austin pre-med undergraduate who heads up the volunteer cohort, became passionate about music therapy years ago when she and her sister began playing violin for isolated patients during the COVID-19 pandemic. She said she sees similar benefits when she curates a collection of records for a patient today.

“We are usually not in the room for the entire time, so it’s a more intimate experience for the patient or family, but being able to interact with the patient in the beginning and at the end can be really transformative,” Vargas said.

Often, the palliative care patients visited by ATX-VINyL are near the end of life.

Jorgensen feels that the record player provides an interruption of the heaviness those patients and their families are experiencing. Suddenly, it’s possible to create a new, positive shared experience at a profoundly difficult time.

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“Now you’re sort of looking at it together and thinking, ‘What are we going to do with this thing? Let’s play something for Mom, let’s play something for Dad.’” he said. “And you are creating a new, positive, shared experience in the setting of something that can otherwise be very sad, very heavy.”

Other patients, like Pamela Mansfield, are working painstakingly toward recovery.

She has had six neck surgeries since April, when she had a serious fall. But on the day she listened to the George Jones album, she had a small victory to celebrate: She stood up for three minutes, a record since her most recent surgery.

With the record spinning, she couldn’t help but think about the victories she’s still pursuing.

“It’s motivating,” she said. “Me and my broom could dance really well to some of this stuff.”

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Video: Who Is Trying to Replace Planned Parenthood?

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Video: Who Is Trying to Replace Planned Parenthood?

new video loaded: Who Is Trying to Replace Planned Parenthood?

As efforts to defund Planned Parenthood lead to the closure of some of its locations, Christian-based clinics that try to dissuade abortions are aiming to fill the gap in women‘s health care. Our reporter Caroline Kitchener describes how this change is playing out in Ames, Iowa.

By Caroline Kitchener, Melanie Bencosme, Karen Hanley, June Kim and Pierre Kattar

December 22, 2025

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