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Stalled Russian offensive increases pressure on Belarus to join invasion

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Stalled Russian offensive increases pressure on Belarus to join invasion

Alexander Lukashenko, the authoritarian chief of Belarus, has allowed Russia to make use of his nation’s territory to invade Ukraine, and adjusted its structure so it may host Russian nuclear missiles.

However there’s one bridge he has thus far refused to cross: sending Belarusian troops to affix the Russian assault on their frequent neighbour. “We’re not going to get entangled,” Lukashenko informed a gathering of safety officers this week. “There’s no want for it.”

But as Russia’s invasion stalls within the face of fierce Ukrainian resistance, officers in Kyiv have warned that Lukashenko — who survived big anti-regime protests in 2020 largely due to Kremlin assist — might not have the ability to maintain his troops on the sidelines endlessly.

Ukraine just lately accused Russia of a “false flag” assault on Belarus to attract it into the warfare. Final weekend, Oleksiy Danilov, Ukraine’s nationwide safety chief, claimed Russia was attempting to influence Belarusian troopers to enter Ukrainian territory disguised as Russians. “They’ve an awesome want to place Belarusian troopers in uniforms of the Russian Federation,” he stated.

Belarus dismissed the false flag claims as “nonsense”, and opinion polls recommend that Belarusians are strongly against their troopers collaborating within the warfare. A senior US defence official stated there have been no indications that Belarus was placing troops into Ukraine, or getting ready to take action.

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However because the warfare enters its fourth week, Russia’s want of reinforcements is more and more clear. US officers have estimated that about 6,000 Russians have died within the battle thus far.

Russia has not given figures since March 2, when it stated it had suffered 498 casualties. However in a tacit admission of his army issues, President Vladimir Putin final week gave approval for 16,000 “volunteers” from the Center East to affix the Russian trigger.

Analysts say Lukashenko has restricted potential to withstand Russian stress to affix the combat.

For a lot of his nearly three a long time in energy, the previous collective farm boss sought to keep up some extent of autonomy from Moscow by cultivating ties with the EU.

However that technique collapsed in 2020, when Lukashenko launched a brutal crackdown on protests in opposition to his declare to have gained a sixth straight time period as president.

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The west responded with robust sanctions, which have hit key sectors of the Belarusian financial system, and made Lukashenko extra dependent than ever on Russian political and financial assist.

Katia Glod, a Belarus skilled from the Middle for European Coverage Evaluation think-tank, stated of the possibilities of Belarusian troops becoming a member of the preventing: “It’s going to all boil down as to if Putin decides he wants them.”

She continued: “Particularly with Russian troops within the nation, and below the present sanctions. Lukashenko is economically so depending on Russia that he has no house for manoeuvre.”

Belarus’s army, with simply 45,000 personnel, is small in contrast with that of Russia and Ukraine, and has much less fight expertise. However given the heavy losses that Russia has suffered, a deployment of Belarusian forces may very well be helpful for the Kremlin, stated François Heisbourg, a French defence analyst.

President Alexander Lukashenko, moustached, attended February’s joint workout routines of the armed forces of Russia and Belarus © Maxim Guchek/Belta/AFP/Getty Photos

“The Russians want our bodies. They’ve already had a number of thousand Chechens and now they’re speaking about flying in Syrians,” he stated. “For the city fight section particularly you actually need lots of manpower and that’s precisely what the Russians don’t presently have. So the notion of filling in with Belarusians . . . would truly make lots of sense.”

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Others are sceptical, each about Belarus’s army capabilities, and the way motivated its troopers could be to combat Ukrainians.

“It definitely wouldn’t be decisive,” stated Mark Cancian, a former US marine corps colonel now on the Middle for Strategic and Worldwide Research think-tank in Washington. “The one manner it may very well be . . . actually vital could be in the event that they have been prepared to open one other entrance additional to the west.”

But this may be a “extremely dangerous” technique for Belarus, which must rely by itself inexperienced troops. “However it might [also] be an issue for the Ukrainians, within the sense that it might be one more thrust they’d need to defend in opposition to,” he added.

Michal Baranowski, senior fellow on the German Marshall Fund in Warsaw, stated it might be “very vital” if Belarusian forces joined the warfare and have been in a position to shut off Ukraine’s western border, because it was the principle route for inflows of weapons provides from Ukraine’s allies.

However he stated closing such a protracted border could be an enormous enterprise and was “not possible for the time being”.

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“The most important query isn’t how a lot public assist there’s [for Belarusian involvement], however how a lot room for manoeuvre Lukashenko has versus Putin, and the way a lot he’s solely a puppet,” he stated. “If he’s, that will be the situation the place we may see Belarusian forces as a part of Russian army.”

Further reporting by Felicia Schwartz in Bratislava

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South Korea’s President Yoon Suk Yeol arrested after stand-off with police

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South Korea’s President Yoon Suk Yeol arrested after stand-off with police

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South Korea’s suspended President Yoon Suk Yeol was arrested on Wednesday morning following a predawn raid by police and investigators on his fortified hilltop compound.

Yoon’s detention followed a six-hour stand-off between law enforcement officials and members of the president’s security detail. It is the first time in South Korea’s history that a sitting president has been arrested.

The development marks the latest twist in a political crisis that was triggered by his failed attempt to impose martial law last month, and which has shaken confidence in the democratic integrity of Asia’s fourth-largest economy.

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Yoon was suspended from his duties after he was impeached by parliament in December following his attempt to impose martial law. The country is currently being led by finance minister Choi Sang-mok as acting president.

The operation on Wednesday, which began shortly after 4am, was the second attempt this month by the CIO to detain Yoon for questioning on insurrection and abuse of office charges.

An initial effort earlier this month was foiled by Yoon’s protection officers following a tense hours-long stand-off at the presidential residence. Yoon had previously refused to comply with investigators and had challenged their authority to bring him in for questioning.

“The rule of law has completely collapsed in this country,” Yoon said in a video statement recorded before his transfer to the headquarters of the country’s Corruption Investigation Office for questioning. “I’ve decided to appear for CIO questioning in order to prevent any bloodshed.”

According to South Korea’s state-owned news agency Yonhap, police and officials from the CIO arrived at the compound early on Wednesday and presented a warrant for Yoon’s arrest but were again initially prevented from entering by the Presidential Security Service.

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Yonhap also reported that about 30 lawmakers from Yoon’s conservative People Power party were at the compound and attempting to prevent officials from entering it.

But with hundreds of police gathered outside, some of them equipped with ladders and wire cutters to overcome barricades erected by Yoon’s protection officers, CIO officials were eventually allowed to enter the residence.

Yoon’s lawyers initially attempted to broker a deal whereby he would surrender voluntarily for questioning. But this was not accepted by CIO officials, and he was eventually arrested just after 10.30am and transferred to the investigative agency’s headquarters.

“Yoon’s arrest is the first step towards restoring our constitutional order,” said Park Chan-dae, floor leader of the leftwing opposition Democratic Party of Korea. “It underlines that justice is still alive.”

While Yoon’s powers have been transferred to Choi as acting president, he remains South Korea’s head of state while the country’s Constitutional Court deliberates on whether to approve his impeachment or reinstate him in office.

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The court held its first formal hearing into Yoon’s impeachment on Tuesday, but the session was adjourned after four minutes because the suspended president declined to attend, citing concerns for his personal safety.

The efforts by the CIO and police to detain Yoon for questioning relates to a separate, criminal process connected to his failed imposition of martial law. Yoon’s lawyers insist the CIO has no standing to pursue criminal insurrection charges against him.

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SEC sues Elon Musk, says he didn't disclose Twitter ownership on time before purchase

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SEC sues Elon Musk, says he didn't disclose Twitter ownership on time before purchase

Elon Musk speaks as part of a campaign town hall in support of Donald Trump in Folsom, Pa., on Oct. 17, 2024.

Matt Rourke/AP


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Matt Rourke/AP

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has sued billionaire Elon Musk, saying he failed to disclose his ownership of Twitter stock in a timely manner in early 2022, before buying the social media site.

As a result, the SEC alleges, Musk was able to underpay “by at least $150 million” for shares he bought after he should have disclosed his ownership of more than 5% of Twitter’s shares. Musk bought Twitter in October 2022 and later renamed it X.

Musk started amassing Twitter shares in early 2022, and by March of that year, he owned more than 5%. At this point, the complaint says, he was required by law to disclose his ownership, but he failed to do so until April 4, 11 days after the report was due.

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Representatives for X and Musk did not immediately return a message for comment.

After Musk signed a deal to acquire Twitter in April 2022, he tried to back out of it, leading the company to sue him to force him to go through with the acquisition.

The has SEC said that starting in April 2022, it authorized an investigation into whether any securities laws were broken in connection with Musk’s purchases of Twitter stock and his statements and SEC filings related to the company.

Before it filed the lawsuit, the SEC went to court in an attempt to compel Musk to testify as part of an investigation into his purchase of Twitter.

The SEC’s current chair, Gary Gensler, plans to step down from his post on Jan. 20 and it is not clear if the new administration will continue the lawsuit.

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Palisades and Eaton Fires May Not Be Fully Extinguished for Weeks

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Palisades and Eaton Fires May Not Be Fully Extinguished for Weeks

It may take weeks or longer for firefighters to fully extinguish the two most destructive fires that have ravaged parts of the Los Angeles area, fire officials warned.

The sheer sizes of those blazes, the Palisades and Eaton fires, have presented a significant challenge. They have charred almost 40,000 acres combined and are still only partly contained.

Difficult weather conditions have also hindered efforts. David Acuna, a battalion chief with Cal Fire, said the persistence of strong winds, and the fact that fires were burning through homes, which can generate intense heat, made containment impossible when the blazes first ignited.

Crews have been trying to establish a boundary around the fires, using trenches, natural barriers and other methods to prevent further spread. But Capt. Erik Scott, a spokesman for the Los Angeles Fire Department, said, “It’s going to be a slow, arduous process.”

The emergence of smaller fires over the last week has further complicated efforts. Of particular concern was the Auto fire in Ventura County, northwest of Los Angeles, which grew to more than 50 acres before being contained. Officials worried about it breaking free again in windy conditions.

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These fires have required an immediate response from both air and ground crews to prevent them from growing, Mr. Acuna said, which diverts resources from the larger blazes.

Stopping the fires’ forward progress is only the first step. Firefighters must also extinguish all remaining flames inside the contained area.

Mr. Scott said this second part of the process would also take time. Among other steps, he said, firefighters need to use hand tools to scrape away brush near the burn perimeter and turn over smoldering piles to ensure nothing is hot enough to reignite.

These timelines are not unusual for large fires. In 2018, the Woolsey fire burned through nearly 100,000 acres in Los Angeles and Ventura counties, destroying over 1,600 structures. The fire ignited in early November and was not contained for two weeks. And it took until early January for the fire to be fully extinguished.

The Santa Ana winds that have repeatedly raised the fire danger over the last week have so far proven lighter than anticipated on Tuesday, but forecasters warn that wind speeds could increase on Wednesday. The region remains critically dry, with little rain expected in the near future. The combination of those elements is threatening to ignite more fires across Southern California, and could further hinder firefighters’ efforts.

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Erin McCann contributed reporting.

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