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Sinn Féin takes narrow lead in Ireland general election exit poll

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Sinn Féin takes narrow lead in Ireland general election exit poll

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Ireland’s general election delivered an early surprise on Friday as Sinn Féin, the pro-reunification party, emerged with a narrow lead in an exit poll.

But the country’s main opposition party, which had rattled business leaders in the campaign with promises of policy changes, tax cuts and spending pledges, looked set to struggle to form a government, compared with the combined forces of outgoing partners Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, who were only slightly behind.

Sinn Féin won 21.1 per cent of first preference votes under Ireland’s proportional representation system, according to the exit poll conducted by Ipsos B&A; the conservative Fine Gael was on 21 per cent and centrist party Fianna Fáil had 19.5 per cent in the same survey.

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Matt Carthy, Sinn Féin’s director of elections, called it a “phenomenal result” for the nationalist party, which won the most first-preference votes at the last election in 2020, but has plummeted in the polls in the past year.

“Sinn Féin may emerge from these elections as the largest political party,” he told Irish public broadcaster RTÉ.

The result was unexpected since Prime Minister Simon Harris’s conservative Fine Gael — which has been in office since 2011 and is seeking a record fourth consecutive term — had been falling in opinion polls after a series of campaign mis-steps, and had been in third place going into the election. Fianna Fáil had been seen as being ahead of Sinn Féin in first place.

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Longtime rivals before teaming up in government in 2020, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil had warned voters of the dangers of turfing them out given the risk of transatlantic trade shocks under a new term for Donald Trump.

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Ireland has built its economic model on attracting foreign investment, including major US tech and pharma giants, whose huge corporation taxes have delivered eye-popping surpluses that could be at risk if the US president-elect follows through on tax and tariff threats.

Both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have vehemently ruled out any coalition with Sinn Féin, which was once the mouthpiece of IRA paramilitaries in Northern Ireland’s Troubles conflict. This would make its path to power complicated even if it emerges as the country’s most popular party.

Gary Murphy, politics professor at Dublin City University, said “on these numbers, a continuation of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael and one other looks the most likely”.

But Aidan Regan, a professor of political economy at University College Dublin, wrote on social media platform X that “It will take four parties to form a stable government” given Ireland’s increasing political fragmentation.

Fianna Fáil’s director of elections, Jack Chambers, looked unperturbed.

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“It’s all in the margin of error,” he told RTÉ. “It’s a three-way race now.” The exit poll had a margin of error of 1.4 per cent.

Damien English of Fine Gael called his party’s result “a very solid performance . . . Hopefully tomorrow will bring us even better news.”

Fine Gael Taoiseach Simon Harris voted with his family in his Wicklow constituency
Fine Gael leader Simon Harris only became prime minister in April this year after his predecessor abruptly resigned © Reuters

Vote counting begins on Saturday.

Under Ireland’s proportional representation system, voters rank candidates according to their preference. As such, the way that lower-preference votes are transferred between parties will determine the final outcome.

According to the exit poll, which was carried out on behalf of the Irish Times, broadcasters RTÉ and TG4 and Trinity College Dublin, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael both scored 20 per cent of second-preference votes, ahead of Sinn Féin on 17 per cent.

Carthy said that if Sinn Féin’s lead was confirmed, there would be an “obligation” on other parties to “reflect on the new make-up of the Dáil [lower house of parliament]”.

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Sinn Féin had campaigned to oust the two parties that have dominated Irish politics for a century and deliver sweeping change to end the country’s housing crisis.

But Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael will be eyeing potential junior partners among the smaller parties in a bid to secure the 88 seats needed to form a government.

The small leftist Social Democrats party scored 5.8 per cent; Labour had 5 per cent. The Green party, the junior member of the outgoing coalition, had 4 per cent, according to the exit poll. Independents also polled strongly.

Social Democrats leader Holly Cairns was unable to vote after giving birth on election day.

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A dead woman’s key fob and two grisly crime scenes: How the Utah triple-murder suspect was tracked across state lines | CNN

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A dead woman’s key fob and two grisly crime scenes: How the Utah triple-murder suspect was tracked across state lines | CNN

As investigators raced to find the person responsible for three killings in rural Wayne County, Utah, they used automated license plate readers and a victim’s own vehicle key fob to track their suspect – a man police said has no connection to the victims or the region that is known for its awe-inspiring landscapes dotted with quiet, small towns.

It would take just hours to pin down the suspect in a search that spanned multiple states in the Four Corners region of the Southwest – ending early Thursday with the arrest of 22-year-old Iowa resident Ivan Miller, who is charged with three counts of first-degree, aggravated murder, officials said.

Miller was taken into custody in Colorado, officials said –– more than 350 miles from where the bodies of three women were found at two locations in Utah.

Miller’s first court appearance is scheduled for Friday afternoon in Archuleta County, Colorado. He will be represented by a public defender, court records show.

The victims were identified as Margaret Oldroyd, 86; Linda Dewey, 65; and Natalie Graves, 34, Utah’s Department of Public Safety said.

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Dewey and Graves, an aunt and niece who’d gone for a hike together, were found dead near a trailhead just outside the town of Torrey, Utah’s DPS said. The women’s bodies were found by their husbands who grew concerned when the pair didn’t return from their hike, Utah Highway Patrol spokesperson Lt. Cameron Roden said at a news conference Thursday.

Investigators found Oldroyd’s vehicle at the trailhead and deputies went to her home in nearby Lyman, where they discovered her body, Roden said.

After his arrest, Miller told investigators he spent a night in Oldroyd’s back shed and snuck into her house while she was out, according to an indictment filed in court Thursday. Miller “waited for her behind a door and shot her in the back of the head … while she was sitting down to watch television,” the indictment said.

Miller made efforts to clean up the scene before dragging the 86-year-old’s body to a cellar under the shed, where she was later found, the indictment read. He then stole her Buick Regal and traveled to the trailhead, investigators said. Miller told investigators “he did not like the car and wanted to find a different vehicle,” the indictment said.

At the trailhead, Miller said he saw Dewey and Graves get out of a white Subaru and shot them both, according to the indictment. Miller told investigators he stabbed one of the women in the chest multiple times because she was still moving, the document said.

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He then admitted dragging their bodies into a ditch, where the two were discovered by their husbands, the indictment said.

Officials said Miller ditched Oldroyd’s car at the trail and drove away in the white Subaru. Miller also admitted stealing the women’s credit cards and using one to pay for gas, according to documents.

Investigators used a network of license plate scanners to track the Subaru “through southern Utah into northern Arizona and eventually into Colorado,” Roden said.

“Colorado law enforcement located the vehicle abandoned in Pagosa Springs, Colorado, and after a brief search, took the individual into custody without incident,” Utah DPS said Thursday.

One of the husbands was also able to track the car’s location using an app that monitored the vehicle’s key fob, investigators said. Just after 9 p.m. Wednesday, the key fob appeared to be in Farmington, New Mexico — about two hours southwest of where Miller would later be taken into custody, according to the indictment.

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Miller had a handgun and a large knife in his possession at the time of his arrest, according to police in Pagosa Springs.

Miller told investigators he killed the women because he needed money, according to the indictment. “Miller confessed that it ‘had to be done’ but he did not like to do it,” the document reads.

Miller, who lived in Blakesburg, Iowa, set out on a cross-country road trip about two and a half weeks ago, his brother, who spoke with The New York Times on condition of anonymity, said.

Miller’s brother said the two stayed in contact during the trip, and Miller mentioned crashing his truck after hitting an elk, according to the Times.

The brother was concerned about how Miller was traveling around after that and offered to bring him back to Iowa, which he declined, the Times reported.

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After his arrest, Miller told officials that he had been staying at a hotel in the area for a few days after he hit an elk with his truck, which he then sold to a tow truck company, according to the indictment.

On Thursday, shaken residents across Wayne County placed pink ribbons around trees and fences in their communities as they remembered the three women who were killed in apparently random attacks carried out by a stranger.

“We wanted to honor our friend and neighbor,” Mary Sorenson, who put up ribbons around Lyman, told CNN affiliate KSL.

The Wayne County School District announced it would be closed for the rest of the week and would “have counselors in place to support students when we are back in session next week.”

In a statement Thursday, Torrey Mayor Mickey Wright described the multiple homicides as a “heartbreaking moment for our small, close‑knit community.”

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“Our community is strong. In the coming days, we will support one another, check on our neighbors, and ensure that those affected by this tragedy are not alone,” Wright said. “We stand together today — in grief, in compassion, and in solidarity.”

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Iran’s fight for survival / The widening war / Trump’s nebulous goals : Sources & Methods

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Iran’s fight for survival / The widening war / Trump’s nebulous goals : Sources & Methods
The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran is spilling out across the region. What are the goals? And how does it end?Host Mary Louise Kelly talks with International Correspondent Aya Batrawy, based in Dubai, and Pentagon correspondent Tom Bowman, about the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. Six days of war have turned the middle east upside down, and it’s still not clear how the U.S. will determine when its objectives have been accomplished.Recommended Iran reading:Blackwave by Kim GhattasAll the Shah’s Men by Stephen KinzerPrisoner by Jason RezaianPersian Mirrors by Elaine SciolinoListener spy novel recommendation: Pariah by Dan FespermanEmail the show at sourcesandmethods@npr.orgNPR+ supporters hear every episode without sponsor messages and unlock access to our complete archive. Sign up at plus.npr.org.
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Map: 4.9-Magnitude Earthquake Shakes Louisiana

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Map: 4.9-Magnitude Earthquake Shakes Louisiana

Note: Map shows the area with a shake intensity of 4 or greater, which U.S.G.S. defines as “light,” though the earthquake may be felt outside the areas shown.  All times on the map are Central time. The New York Times

A light, 4.9-magnitude earthquake struck in Louisiana on Thursday, according to the United States Geological Survey.

The temblor happened at 5:30 a.m. Central time about 6 miles west of Edgefield, La., data from the agency shows.

U.S.G.S. data earlier reported that the magnitude was 4.4.

As seismologists review available data, they may revise the earthquake’s reported magnitude. Additional information collected about the earthquake may also prompt U.S.G.S. scientists to update the shake-severity map.

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Source: United States Geological Survey | Notes: Shaking categories are based on the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale. When aftershock data is available, the corresponding maps and charts include earthquakes within 100 miles and seven days of the initial quake. All times above are Central time. Shake data is as of Thursday, March 5 at 8:40 a.m. Eastern. Aftershocks data is as of Thursday, March 5 at 10:46 a.m. Eastern.

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