News
Poll: 20-point deficit on handling economy highlights Biden’s struggles against Trump
Despite a growing economy and little opposition for his party’s nomination, President Joe Biden confronts a dissatisfied electorate and a challenging political climate nine months before he faces re-election, according to a new national NBC News poll.
Biden trails GOP presidential front-runner Donald Trump on major policy and personal comparisons, including by more than 20 points on which candidate would better handle the economy. And Biden’s deficit versus Trump on handling immigration and the border is greater than 30 points.
The poll also shows Trump holding a 16-point advantage over Biden on being competent and effective, a reversal from 2020, when Biden was ahead of Trump on this quality by 9 points before defeating him in that election.
And Biden’s approval rating has declined to the lowest level of his presidency in NBC News polling — to 37% — while fewer than 3 in 10 voters approve of his handling of the Israel-Hamas war.
All together, these numbers explain why the poll shows Trump leading Biden by 5 points among registered voters in a hypothetical 2024 general-election matchup, 47% to 42%. While the result is within the poll’s margin of error, the last year of polling shows a clear shift.
Perhaps the best news in the poll for Biden is that he pulls ahead of Trump when voters are asked about their ballot choice if the former president is convicted of a felony. Yet the margin then is just 2 points in Biden’s favor, also within the margin of error.
Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates, who conducted the survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff and his team at Public Opinion Strategies, says these findings reveal “a presidency in peril.”
“What is most concerning is the erosion of Biden’s standing against Trump compared to four years ago,” Horwitt said. “On every measure compared to 2020, Biden has declined. Most damning, the belief that Biden is more likely to be up to the job — the chief tenet of the Biden candidacy — has evaporated.”
McInturff, the GOP pollster, adds: “It is hard to imagine a more difficult set of numbers before a re-election.”
But Horwitt said that Biden still has time to change voters’ perceptions.
“Biden can take solace that we are in January and not October 2024. At this stage in prior cycles, attitudes can change,” he said.
The NBC News poll, conducted Jan. 26-30, comes after Trump won his party’s presidential nominating contests in Iowa and New Hampshire, as the Israel-Hamas war enters its fourth month, and amid positive news on the U.S. economy, including growing consumer confidence and more than 300,000 jobs created last month.
(The poll, however, was conducted before the U.S. military launched strikes Friday in retaliation for the killings of three U.S. service members in Jordan.)
“Inflation is coming down. Jobs are growing. We created 800,000 manufacturing jobs,” Biden boasted in Michigan on Thursday.
Despite those statistics, Trump holds a 22-point advantage over Biden on the question of which candidate would do a better job handling the economy, with 55% picking Trump and 33% choosing Biden.
When this question was last asked in October 2020 — a month before Biden’s victory over Trump — the then-president held only a 7-point advantage over Biden, 48% to 41%.
That said, the poll shows improving attitudes about the economy, with the share of voters believing the economy will get worse in the next year declining 14 points since October 2022.
Also in the poll, Trump has the edge on securing the border and controlling immigration (35 points over Biden), on having the necessary mental and physical health to be president (+23), on dealing with crime and violence (+21), on being competent and effective (+16), and on improving America’s standing in the world (+11).
Biden holds advantages over Trump on dealing with abortion (+12) and protecting immigrant rights (+17).
The two men are essentially tied on the issue of protecting democracy, with 43% of voters preferring Biden and 41% picking Trump.
Biden’s approval rating falls to new low
The NBC News poll also finds Biden’s overall approval rating dropping to the lowest point of his presidency, with 37% of registered voters approving and 60% disapproving — down from November’s score of 40% approving, 57% disapproving.
Biden’s current approval rating is the lowest for any president in the NBC News poll since George W. Bush’s second term.
In the new poll, Biden’s approval rating has declined especially among Latinos (just 35% of them now approve of his job performance), voters ages 18-34 (29%) and independents (27%).
Additionally, 36% of voters in the poll approve of Biden’s handling of the economy (down 2 points from November), 34% approve of his handling of foreign policy (down 1 point) and 29% approve of his handling of the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza (down 5 points).
Among voters under 35 years old, only 15% approve of Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war, while a whopping 70% disapprove.
“A major through line in what ails Biden most are his travails with younger voters,” said Horwitt, the Democratic pollster.
Measuring a Biden-Trump rematch
In a hypothetical head-to-head matchup in November’s presidential contest, Trump gets support from 47% of registered voters, versus 42% who back Biden.
That 5-point lead for Trump — within the poll’s margin of error — is up from November’s 2-point advantage for Trump, 46% to 44%.
It’s consistent with other recent polling, including CNN’s national survey and battleground-state polls from Bloomberg News and Morning Consult. But a recent national Quinnipiac University poll found Biden with a 6-point lead over Trump, 50% to 44%. Overall, national surveys point to a divided country in a testy mood — and a highly contested election on the horizon.
In the new NBC News poll, Biden holds the advantage over Trump among Black voters (75% to 16%), women (50% to 40%) and white people with college degrees (50% to 42%).
Trump, meanwhile, has leads among white people without college degrees (62% to 29%), men (56% to 34%) and independents (48% to 29%).
The two men are essentially tied among Latinos (Trump 42%, Biden 41%) and voters ages 18-34 (at 42% each). Among the youngest slice of voters measured, those ages 18-29, Biden has a narrow advantage (Biden 46%, Trump 38%).
But when the poll re-asks voters — on the survey’s final question — about their ballot choice if Trump is found guilty and convicted of a felony this year, the picture shifts. Biden jumps ahead of Trump among registered voters in that case, 45% to 43%. (Read more here.)
Testing Biden, Trump and third parties
In a hypothetical matchup featuring third parties, Trump’s advantage over Biden grows to 6 points, 41% to 35% — with an unnamed Libertarian Party candidate getting 5% support, an unnamed Green Party candidate getting another 5% and an unnamed No Labels candidate getting 4%.
(While the poll didn’t test a ballot including independent presidential candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West, who are still seeking state ballot access across the country, it finds 34% of all registered voters saying they could see themselves supporting Kennedy and 10% saying the same of West.)
And in a hypothetical matchup featuring Biden and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, the NBC News poll shows Haley leading Biden by 9 points, 45% to 36%.
Trump leads Haley by 60 points in GOP race
As for Haley and the GOP presidential race after Iowa and New Hampshire, the poll has Trump leading his former U.N. ambassador by a whopping 60 points among national GOP primary voters, 79% to 19%.
In a separate question, 61% of these Republican voters say Trump should continue as the party’s leader; 14% say Trump was a good president, but it’s time to consider other leaders; and 22% say the GOP needs a new leader with better personal behavior and a different approach.
The NBC News poll was conducted Jan. 26-30 of 1,000 registered voters — 867 contacted via cellphone — and it has an overall margin of error of plus-minus 3.1 percentage points. The margin of error for the 349 Republican primary voters is plus-minus 5.25 percentage points.
News
“It’s blood money”: Family of exonerated man in Texas yogurt shop murders speaks out after settlement
The widow and the daughter of Maurice Pierce, one of the four men wrongfully accused in the 1991 Texas yogurt shop murders, have confirmed they signed a multimillion-dollar settlement with the city of Austin.
Kimberli and Marisa Pierce spoke with correspondent Erin Moriarty in a new episode of the podcast “48 Hours: Case by Case.” Moriarty has reported on the yogurt shop murders for over 30 years.
Maurice Pierce’s widow Kimberli made clear that their priority has never been financial compensation. “It’s blood money for us. He died for this money,” Kimberli Pierce said. “It’s about the reform and the changes that need to happen, not only in Austin, but apparently across the country.”
They also went into great detail about what they believe happened when Maurice Pierce was shot and killed by police in 2010.
Maurice Pierce was one of four men, along with Michael Scott, Robert Springsteen and Forrest Welborn, who were wrongfully accused in the murders of four teenage girls in Austin on Dec. 6, 1991. Eliza Thomas, Amy Ayers, and sisters Jennifer and Sarah Harbison were tied up, shot and left inside the yogurt shop as it was set ablaze.
The four men were exonerated in February after investigators linked another man, Robert Eugene Brashers, to the killings. The city of Austin subsequently offered a $35 million settlement. Because Maurice Pierce died in 2010, his share of $10 million will go to Kimberli and Marisa Pierce.
Eight days after the killings, 16-year-old Maurice Pierce was arrested at a mall, carrying a .22, the same caliber handgun connected to the crime. Kimberli Pierce said police told Maurice Pierce that his gun was the murder weapon. He responded by mentioning his friend Forrest Welborn. Maurice Pierce was then wired up and sent to speak with Welborn, but investigators ultimately determined that Welborn and the others knew nothing about the murders, and no charges were filed at that time.
Marisa Pierce has said there was no evidence when her father was questioned, “only a detective and a narrative, a narrative so completely false. It feels evil.”
Nearly eight years later, in 1999, all four men were arrested after Scott and Springsteen confessed to the murders. They later recanted, saying they had been coerced. Springsteen and Scott were tried and convicted, but later those convictions were overturned on constitutional grounds. A subsequent DNA test excluded all four men. Maurice Pierce was never convicted but spent three years in jail before his release in 2003.
Kimberli Pierce said her husband came home a hardened man. She believes police continued to harass Maurice and their family after his release. In 2010, Maurice Pierce was stopped for a routine traffic stop, fled on foot, and was shot and killed by an Austin police officer who said Pierce had stabbed him with a knife.
Marisa and Kimberli Pierce told “48 Hours” that they intend to review the circumstances surrounding the night of Maurice Pierce’s death. Marisa Pierce revealed in new, emotional detail that she was on the phone with her father at the time. She believes he panicked and was only trying to get away, not to hurt anyone. She described her father’s last breaths: “And in those last moments, he had just said I’m sorry, I don’t think you’re gonna see me again, and I love you.”
“48 Hours” reached out to the Austin Police Department about the Pierces’ allegations of harassment and their questions about Maurice Pierce’s death in 2010. The police department said they had no additional comment.
For the Pierce family, the settlement is a starting point, not an end point. They have put forward seven proposed reforms they hope the city of Austin will approve, including appointing a child advocate whenever a minor is questioned, prohibiting deceptive interrogation tactics, educating juveniles about their rights and establishing accountability measures to address tunnel vision in police investigations.
In a statement shared with “48 Hours,” the Pierces wrote: “Real justice is not only about acknowledging harm after the fact but about creating safeguards that prevent future families from enduring the same pain.”
News
The Maine Town That Actually Wants a Data Center
This year, Maine nearly became the first state to pass a statewide moratorium on new data centers. But before the law could take effect, supporters of an A.I. data center project in the small town of Jay rallied to fight the ban — and won. So why do residents there want one? We traveled to Jay to find out.
News
The Supreme Court says the U.S. can turn away asylum seekers at the border
The U.S. Supreme Court
Drew Angerer/AFP via Getty Images
hide caption
toggle caption
Drew Angerer/AFP via Getty Images
The U.S. Supreme Court on Thursday handed the Trump administration a tool that could make it far more difficult for asylum seekers to enter the United States.
Asylum is a form of legal protection available to people fleeing persecution in their home countries if they meet certain criteria. Under U.S. law, an asylum seeker who “arrives in” the U.S. is entitled to apply for asylum and generally cannot be removed from the country until their asylum application is processed.
By a 6-3 vote, the high court ruled that federal law allows the government to stop asylum seekers from physically setting foot in the country, effectively keeping them from applying for asylum.
The Obama administration was the first to try stemming the flow of asylum seekers that way. But the lower courts blocked the policy on grounds that it violated federal law by denying asylum to people who otherwise would have qualified for it, had they been permitted to literally put one foot over the border.
The Trump administration, however, sought to revive the policy, contending that the lower court’s ruling “deprives the Executive Branch of a critical tool for addressing border surges and preventing overcrowding at ports of entry.” And on Thursday, the Supreme Court agreed.
Writing for the majority, Justice Samuel Alito ruled that because asylum seekers are not in the U.S. when they are turned away at the border, they did not “arrive in” the country. Therefore, he continued, the legal protections for asylum seekers have not kicked in.
Writing for the liberal dissenters, Justice Sonia Sotomayor noted that Border Patrol agents speak with all immigrants at legal entry points and speaking with an agent is effectively the first step in “arriving in” the U.S.
-
Rhode Island6 minutes ago32 photos capturing Rhode Island Pride’s nighttime magic
-
South-Carolina9 minutes ago
South Carolina adds to America250 time capsule set to be buried July 4
-
South Dakota14 minutes ago17 Republican attorneys general, including South Dakota’s, sue California over plastics law
-
Tennessee21 minutes ago‘Oppressive’ heat is on the way. How long will heat dome last in Tennessee
-
Texas24 minutes agoGiraffe that escaped Texas ranch spotted by helicopter, manager says
-
Utah29 minutes agoUtah weather conditions trigger historic red flag warning as wildfires rage in state
-
Vermont36 minutes agoArlington Common, Albert Construction recognized by Preservation Trust of Vermont
-
Virginia38 minutes agoVirginia Cannabis: Will Retail Finally Start In 2027?