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Markets slash rate cut bets after US inflation rises to 3.5%

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Markets slash rate cut bets after US inflation rises to 3.5%

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Traders slashed bets on imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts on Wednesday after data showed US inflation rose to 3.5 per cent in March, surpassing expectations and marking the second increase in a row.

The annual consumer price index figure compared with expectations of a 3.4 per cent rise, according to economists polled by Bloomberg, while the core number was also greater than forecast.

CPI had risen to 3.2 per cent in February from 3.1 per cent in January.

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Bond yields jumped and stocks slid after the data release, as US President Joe Biden acknowledged there was “more to do” on fighting inflation.

Markets are now betting that interest rate cuts may not begin until November, at a Fed meeting scheduled just after the US presidential election.

Futures traders lowered their rate cut expectations to priced in between one and two quarter-point cuts this year.

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Before the inflation figures were published, markets had expected between two and three cuts this year. Early In January, they had expected at least six cuts.

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Traders had also previously seen a July cut as a near-certainty, but halved their bets on that timing from around 98 per cent to 50 per cent after Wednesday’s report was released.

While the markets still give a very high probability to rate cuts by September, they have not fully priced in a cut until the Fed’s November 6-7 meeting.

The two-year Treasury yield, which moves with interest rate expectations, jumped by about 0.23 percentage points to almost 4.98 per cent, its highest level in more than four months.

The S&P 500 was down 1 per cent in late-morning trade.

“Even if the Fed’s policy pivot toward cutting interest rates is still on the table for 2024, recent data have greatly complicated the task of finding the right time for a move that avoids constraining growth while also not prematurely declaring victory against inflation,” said Eswar Prasad, economics professor at Cornell University.

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The higher than expected inflation numbers are a blow to Biden, who is struggling to convince voters of his economic record as he ramps up his campaign for the November 5 election.

Bumper jobs figures last week had already led markets to further rein in expectations of Fed rate cuts.

But while Biden has touted the strength of the labour market, cumulative price increases during his first term have hit consumers’ purchasing power.

“Today’s report shows inflation has fallen more than 60 per cent from its peak, but we have more to do to lower costs for hard-working families,” the US president said on Wednesday.

Biden called on corporations, notably food retailers, “to use record profits to reduce prices”. He also attacked Congressional Republicans, whom he accused of “helping special interests and Big Pharma raise prices”.

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The Bureau of Labor Statistics added on Wednesday that core inflation, which excludes changes in food and energy costs, remained at 3.8 per cent, the same rate as February. Economists had expected a core rate for March of 3.7 per cent.

The benchmark federal funds target range is currently set at 5.25 to 5.5 per cent — the highest since 2001 — in an attempt to rein in inflation.

The Fed’s own “dot plot” forecasts show rate-setters, as of March, expected to make three cuts this year. However, recent remarks from regional Fed presidents have cast doubt on those projections.

While Fed chair Jay Powell still believes in a “base case” that shows inflation drifting down towards the central bank’s 2 per cent goal, others on the Federal Open Market Committee are increasingly concerned that price pressures will prove stickier than expected.

Chicago Fed president Austan Goolsbee has expressed concern that housing inflation will remain too strong, while Dallas chief Lorie Logan has warned of greater “upside risk” to the outlook.

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While neither Goolsbee nor Logan has a vote on the FOMC, Atlanta Fed president Raphael Bostic does and has consistently warned that the Fed may struggle to cut more than one time this year.

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‘Music makes everything better’: A Texas doctor spins vinyl to give patients relief

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‘Music makes everything better’: A Texas doctor spins vinyl to give patients relief

Dr. Tyler Jorgensen sets “A Charlie Brown Christmas” on a record player at Dell Seton Medical Center in Austin Texas. He uses vinyl records as a form of music therapy for palliative care patients.

Lorianne Willett/KUT News


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Lorianne Willett/KUT News

AUSTIN, TEXAS — Lying in her bed at Dell Seton Medical Center at the University of Texas at Austin, 64-year-old Pamela Mansfield sways her feet to the rhythm of George Jones’ “She Thinks I Still Care.” Mansfield is still recovering much of her mobility after a recent neck surgery, but she finds a way to move to the music floating from a record player that was wheeled into her room.

“Seems to be the worst part is the stiffness in my ankles and the no feeling in the hands,” she says. “But music makes everything better.”

The record player is courtesy of the ATX-VINyL program, a project dreamed up by Dr. Tyler Jorgensen to bring music to the bedside of patients dealing with difficult diagnoses and treatments. He collaborates with a team of volunteers who wheel the player on a cart to patients’ rooms, along with a selection of records in their favorite genres.

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“I think of this record player as a time machine,” he said. “You know, something starts spinning — an old, familiar song on a record player — and now you’re back at home, you’re out of the hospital, you’re with your family, you’re with your loved ones.”

UT Public Health Sophomore Daniela Vargas pushes a cart through Dell Seton Medical Center on December 9, 2025. The ATX VINyL program is designed to bring volunteers in to play music for patients in the hospital, and Vargas participates as the head volunteer. Lorianne Willett/KUT News

Daniela Vargas, a volunteer for the ATX-VINyL program, wheels a record player to the hospital room of a palliative care patient in Austin, Texas.

Lorianne Willett/KUT News


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The healing power of Country music… and Thin Lizzy

Mansfield wanted to hear country music: Willie Nelson, Merle Haggard, George Jones. That genre reminds her of listening to records with her parents, who helped form her taste in music. Almost as soon as the first record spins, she starts cracking jokes.

“I have great taste in music. Men, on the other hand … ehhh. I think my picker’s broken,” she says.

Other patients ask for jazz, R&B or holiday records.

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The man who gave Jorgensen the idea for ATX-VINyL loved classic rock. That was around three years ago, when Jorgensen, a long-time emergency medicine physician, began a fellowship in palliative care — a specialty aimed at improving quality of life for people with serious conditions, including terminal illnesses.

Shortly after he began the fellowship, he says he struggled to connect with a particular patient.

“I couldn’t draw this man out, and I felt like he was really struggling and suffering,” Jorgensen said.

He had the idea to try playing the patient some music.

He went with “The Boys Are Back in Town,” by the 1970s Irish rock group Thin Lizzy, and saw an immediate change in the patient.

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“He was telling me old stories about his life. He was getting more honest and vulnerable about the health challenges he was facing,” Jorgensen said. “And it just struck me that all this time I’ve been practicing medicine, there’s such a powerful tool that is almost universal to the human experience, which is music, and I’ve never tapped into it.”

Dr. Tyler Jorgensen, a palliative care doctor at Dell Seton Medical Center, holds a Willie Nelson album in an office on December 9, 2025. Ferguson said patients have been increasingly requesting country music and they had to source that genre specifically.

Dr. Tyler Jorgensen plays vinyl records as a form of music therapy for palliative care patients in Austin, Texas. Willie Nelson’s albums are a perennial hit.

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Creating new memories

Jorgensen realized records could lift the spirits of patients dealing with heavy circumstances in hospital spaces that are often aesthetically bare. And he thought vinyl would offer a more personal touch than streaming a digital track through a smartphone or speaker.

“There’s just something inherently warm about the friction of a record — the pops, the scratches,” he said. “It sort of resonates through the wooden record player, and it just feels different.”

Since then, he has built up a collection of 60 records and counting at the hospital. The most-requested album, by a landslide, is Fleetwood Mac’s Rumours from 1977. Willie is also popular, along with Etta James and John Denver. And around the holidays, the Vince Guaraldi Trio’s A Charlie Brown Christmas gets a lot of spins.

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These days, it’s often a volunteer who rolls the record player from room to room after consulting nursing staff about patients and family members who are struggling and could use a visit.

Daniela Vargas, the UT Austin pre-med undergraduate who heads up the volunteer cohort, became passionate about music therapy years ago when she and her sister began playing violin for isolated patients during the COVID-19 pandemic. She said she sees similar benefits when she curates a collection of records for a patient today.

“We are usually not in the room for the entire time, so it’s a more intimate experience for the patient or family, but being able to interact with the patient in the beginning and at the end can be really transformative,” Vargas said.

Often, the palliative care patients visited by ATX-VINyL are near the end of life.

Jorgensen feels that the record player provides an interruption of the heaviness those patients and their families are experiencing. Suddenly, it’s possible to create a new, positive shared experience at a profoundly difficult time.

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“Now you’re sort of looking at it together and thinking, ‘What are we going to do with this thing? Let’s play something for Mom, let’s play something for Dad.’” he said. “And you are creating a new, positive, shared experience in the setting of something that can otherwise be very sad, very heavy.”

Other patients, like Pamela Mansfield, are working painstakingly toward recovery.

She has had six neck surgeries since April, when she had a serious fall. But on the day she listened to the George Jones album, she had a small victory to celebrate: She stood up for three minutes, a record since her most recent surgery.

With the record spinning, she couldn’t help but think about the victories she’s still pursuing.

“It’s motivating,” she said. “Me and my broom could dance really well to some of this stuff.”

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Video: Who Is Trying to Replace Planned Parenthood?

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Video: Who Is Trying to Replace Planned Parenthood?

new video loaded: Who Is Trying to Replace Planned Parenthood?

As efforts to defund Planned Parenthood lead to the closure of some of its locations, Christian-based clinics that try to dissuade abortions are aiming to fill the gap in women‘s health care. Our reporter Caroline Kitchener describes how this change is playing out in Ames, Iowa.

By Caroline Kitchener, Melanie Bencosme, Karen Hanley, June Kim and Pierre Kattar

December 22, 2025

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Weather tracker: Further flood watches issued across California

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Weather tracker: Further flood watches issued across California

After prolonged heavy rainfall and devastating flooding across the Pacific north-west in the past few weeks, further flood watches have been issued across California through this week.

With 50-75mm (2-3in) of rainfall already reported across northern California this weekend, a series of atmospheric rivers will continue to bring periods of heavy rain and mountain snow across the northern and central parts of the state, with flood watches extending until Friday.

Cumulative rainfall totals are expected to widely exceed 50mm (2in) across a vast swathe of California by Boxing Day, but with totals around 200-300mm (8-12in) possible for the north-western corner of California and western-facing slopes of the northern Sierra Nevada mountains.

Los Angeles could receive 100-150mm (4-6in) of rainfall between Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, which could make it one of the wettest Christmases on record for the city. River and urban flooding are likely – particularly where there is run-off from high ground – with additional risks of mudslides and rockslides in mountain and foothill areas.

Winter storm warnings are also in effect for Yosemite national park, with the potential for 1.8-2.4 metres (6-8ft) of accumulating snow by Boxing Day. Heavy snow alongside strong winds will make travel very difficult over the festive period.

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Golden Gate Bridge is covered with dense fog near Fort Point as rainy weather and an atmospheric river hit the San Francisco Bay Area on Saturday. Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images

Heavy rain, lightning and strong winds are forecast across large parts of Zimbabwe leading up to Christmas. A level 2 weather warning has been issued by the Meteorological Services Department from Sunday 21 December to Wednesday 24 December. Some areas are expected to see more than 50mm of rainfall within a 24-hour period. The rain will be accompanied by hail, frequent lightning, and strong winds. These conditions have been attributed to the interaction between warm, moist air with low-pressure systems over the western and northern parts of the country.

Australia will see some large variations in temperatures over the festive period. Sydney, which is experiencing temperatures above 40C, is expected to tumble down to about 22C by Christmas Day, about 5C below average for this time of year. Perth is going to see temperatures gradually creep up, reaching a peak of 40C around Christmas Day. This is about 10C above average for this time of year.

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