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Markets slash rate cut bets after US inflation rises to 3.5%

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Markets slash rate cut bets after US inflation rises to 3.5%

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Traders slashed bets on imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts on Wednesday after data showed US inflation rose to 3.5 per cent in March, surpassing expectations and marking the second increase in a row.

The annual consumer price index figure compared with expectations of a 3.4 per cent rise, according to economists polled by Bloomberg, while the core number was also greater than forecast.

CPI had risen to 3.2 per cent in February from 3.1 per cent in January.

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Bond yields jumped and stocks slid after the data release, as US President Joe Biden acknowledged there was “more to do” on fighting inflation.

Markets are now betting that interest rate cuts may not begin until November, at a Fed meeting scheduled just after the US presidential election.

Futures traders lowered their rate cut expectations to priced in between one and two quarter-point cuts this year.

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Before the inflation figures were published, markets had expected between two and three cuts this year. Early In January, they had expected at least six cuts.

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Traders had also previously seen a July cut as a near-certainty, but halved their bets on that timing from around 98 per cent to 50 per cent after Wednesday’s report was released.

While the markets still give a very high probability to rate cuts by September, they have not fully priced in a cut until the Fed’s November 6-7 meeting.

The two-year Treasury yield, which moves with interest rate expectations, jumped by about 0.23 percentage points to almost 4.98 per cent, its highest level in more than four months.

The S&P 500 was down 1 per cent in late-morning trade.

“Even if the Fed’s policy pivot toward cutting interest rates is still on the table for 2024, recent data have greatly complicated the task of finding the right time for a move that avoids constraining growth while also not prematurely declaring victory against inflation,” said Eswar Prasad, economics professor at Cornell University.

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The higher than expected inflation numbers are a blow to Biden, who is struggling to convince voters of his economic record as he ramps up his campaign for the November 5 election.

Bumper jobs figures last week had already led markets to further rein in expectations of Fed rate cuts.

But while Biden has touted the strength of the labour market, cumulative price increases during his first term have hit consumers’ purchasing power.

“Today’s report shows inflation has fallen more than 60 per cent from its peak, but we have more to do to lower costs for hard-working families,” the US president said on Wednesday.

Biden called on corporations, notably food retailers, “to use record profits to reduce prices”. He also attacked Congressional Republicans, whom he accused of “helping special interests and Big Pharma raise prices”.

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The Bureau of Labor Statistics added on Wednesday that core inflation, which excludes changes in food and energy costs, remained at 3.8 per cent, the same rate as February. Economists had expected a core rate for March of 3.7 per cent.

The benchmark federal funds target range is currently set at 5.25 to 5.5 per cent — the highest since 2001 — in an attempt to rein in inflation.

The Fed’s own “dot plot” forecasts show rate-setters, as of March, expected to make three cuts this year. However, recent remarks from regional Fed presidents have cast doubt on those projections.

While Fed chair Jay Powell still believes in a “base case” that shows inflation drifting down towards the central bank’s 2 per cent goal, others on the Federal Open Market Committee are increasingly concerned that price pressures will prove stickier than expected.

Chicago Fed president Austan Goolsbee has expressed concern that housing inflation will remain too strong, while Dallas chief Lorie Logan has warned of greater “upside risk” to the outlook.

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While neither Goolsbee nor Logan has a vote on the FOMC, Atlanta Fed president Raphael Bostic does and has consistently warned that the Fed may struggle to cut more than one time this year.

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Trump’s ‘American Flag Blue’ in the Lincoln Memorial pool is already gray — and the Olympic canoer ‘vandal’ is fighting his arrest | Fortune

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Trump’s ‘American Flag Blue’ in the Lincoln Memorial pool is already gray — and the Olympic canoer ‘vandal’ is fighting his arrest | Fortune

The newly drained Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool’s bottom surface has noticeably faded since it was lined with a protective coating in a color President Donald Trump called “American flag blue” this spring.

An Associated Press reporter and photographer viewed the fenced-off Reflecting Pool on Wednesday from the top of the Washington Monument. The new liner appears grayer than when the pool was repainted and refilled with water in early June. Debris that had been visible earlier this week after the pool was drained is now largely gone, after work crews removed it.

Trump’s problem-plagued effort to revamp the landmark has stretched well past his initial goal of having the Reflecting Pool ready by July 4 for the nation’s 250th birthday.

The president at first suggested his renovations would cost $1.5 million, but the bill ballooned to more than $16 million by June.

Trump had said the repairs would last a century, but within days of the project’s initial completion last month, the water was beset by an algae bloom and pieces of the new coating appeared to be peeling off the bottom.

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Ohio-based Green Water Solutions, also known as Greenwater Services, was given a $1.7 million contract to install a water-purification system in the Reflecting Pool, while Virginia-based Atlantic Industrial Coatings was awarded $14.7 million to repaint and waterproof the pool’s concrete floor.

Vandalism charges were levied against a former Olympic canoeist

Trump has repeatedly blamed vandals for the peeling paint, though critics allege it’s from shoddy repair work.

Trump has said, without citing evidence, that vandals made a “350-foot gash” in the liner and caused other problems. No large slash marks were immediately visible Wednesday from the Washington Monument view. It was not possible to do a more up-close inspection of the entire pool due to a dark fence surrounding the perimeter.

Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, whose agency oversees the National Park Service, said that after the water is drained and debris is cleaned from Independence Day fireworks, the plan for the pool is straightforward: “Repair the vandalism that was done. Fill it back up again.” He was speaking with conservative podcaster Katie Miller.

Court documents show that the National Park Service reported to the U.S. Park Police a June 9 incident in which a sharp knife or razor was said to have cut the pool’s new liner.

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Former Olympic canoe racer David Hearn pleaded not guilty last week in D.C. Superior Court to deliberately damaging the Reflecting Pool. Hearn has said he reached inside the pool to examine the peeled sealant and let go of a chunk when he was told to by a park worker.

His attorneys and other Trump administration critics have derided the case as an abuse of prosecutorial power and maintain he is being scapegoated for the poor job done fixing up the Reflecting Pool.

At least three other people have been charged in the same court with misdemeanors for allegedly removing pieces of paint from the pool, court records show. All three pleaded not guilty during initial court appearances.

The work on the Reflecting Pool is just one of a number of projects Trump has spearheaded across the nation’s capital. Most prominently, he demolished the White House’s East Wing to build a $400 million ballroom and plans to build a towering arch. between the Lincoln Memorial and Arlington National Cemetery.

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Argentina is back in the World Cup final after a thrilling semifinal win over England

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Argentina is back in the World Cup final after a thrilling semifinal win over England

Argentina’s Lionel Messi celebrates the team’s second goal by Lautaro Martínez during their World Cup semifinal against England on Wednesday in Atlanta. Argentina defeated the English 2-1 to advance to Sunday’s final against Spain.

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ATLANTA — Argentina, the death-defying defending World Cup champion, will play for a second consecutive title after scoring two late goals to beat England in the semifinal, 2-1.

For a fourth straight knockout game, Argentina survived a heart-stoppingly close call. First was Cape Verde, the African island nation underdog, who took the champions to extra time. Then was the furious miracle comeback after Egypt took a 2-0 lead. Then, in the quarterfinal, a shorthanded Switzerland squad forced extra time despite a 72nd-minute red card.

This gutsy Argentina squad prevailed in all three games, and Wednesday, they pulled it off yet again. In the 55th minute, England took a 1-0 lead when forward Anthony Gordon tapped in a cross.

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But, as the clock ticked up, Argentina turned up the intensity. A relentless onslaught yielded near miss after near miss before finally midfielder Enzo Fernández scored off a rocket from outside the penalty area to equalize the game at 1-1 in the 85th minute.

Then, in stoppage time, forward Lautaro Martínez sent the Argentina crowd into delirium with a header off a cross from 39-year-old superstar Lionel Messi, who assisted on both goals.

“I think that this team plays the best when we are facing a difficult situation, with adversity, ” said Argentina coach Lionel Scaloni afterward. “We had a challenging game, a challenging situation. There was blood in the water, and we went for it.”

In Sunday’s final they will face Spain, which defeated France on Tuesday 2-0 to contend for their second-ever title.

England's Anthony Gordon celebrates scoring his team's first goal during the World Cup semifinal against Argentina on Wednesday in Atlanta.

England’s Anthony Gordon celebrates scoring his team’s first goal during the World Cup semifinal against Argentina on Wednesday in Atlanta.

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Wednesday’s game, the sixth meeting between these two teams at the men’s World Cup, was the newest chapter in their storied rivalry. That history includes the infamous “Hand of God” goal scored by Diego Maradona in the 1986 World Cup, four years after a war between the two countries over the Falkland Islands. The British won the war, but the sovereignty of the territory is still under dispute.

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ICE should do traffic stops despite recent shootings, Trump says, seeming to oppose new suspension

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ICE should do traffic stops despite recent shootings, Trump says, seeming to oppose new suspension

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency should continue vehicle stops after recent fatal shootings, President Donald Trump said on Wednesday, seeming to oppose a new suspension of the practice used as part of his immigration crackdown.

ICE is “doing a GREAT job, one that has to be done,” Trump wrote on his social media site.

The Republican president said that to remove criminals he claims were let into the country under the previous Democratic administration “we must be strong, tough, and smart, and we CANNOT give up one of ICE’s most important and effective Crime Fighting tools, THE TRAFFIC STOP!” Trump said, “Once we do, we are playing right into the criminal’s hands.”

Trump administration officials have told Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers to suspend most vehicle stops after two deadly shootings within a week, people familiar with the decision said Tuesday.

The suspension was ordered after an ICE officer shot and killed a Colombian driver Monday in Maine and a week after another officer shot and killed a motorist in Houston, renewing criticism of the agency’s enforcement tactics that were widely condemned last winter after the killings of Alex Pretti and Renee Good in Minnesota.

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In Florida on Tuesday, a third man in roughly a week died during an encounter with immigration officers. This time, a 28-year-old man was killed after he was hit by a tractor trailer while running from immigration and other federal officers, authorities said.

It’s a narrative that has been repeated again and again since the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown began, with federal officers confronting drivers and then saying they opened fire when the drivers’ vehicles became a danger. That’s despite decades of warnings from policing experts that shooting into moving cars presents a danger of its own and should almost always be avoided.

There have been at least 10 deaths involving encounters with immigration agents since Trump launched his deportation campaign. At least four of those deaths involved people in vehicles, including the one last week in Houston, a trend so troubling that U.S. Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, said Tuesday that she had urged Department of Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin “to cease all non-urgent vehicle stops.”

John Sandweg, who was acting director at ICE, which is part of DHS, during President Barack Obama’s Democratic administration, estimated recently that there have been roughly 18 traffic stop shootings during the Trump immigration crackdown.

The office of Maine Sen. Angus King, an independent who caucuses with Democrats, was told by DHS that ICE was suspending traffic stops, office spokesperson Matthew Felling said.

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ICE, which has been under pressure to beef up arrest and deportation numbers, often says people it’s trying to arrest are increasingly resistant to leaving their homes. ICE officers blame immigration advocates who advise immigrants to stay in their homes unless ICE produces a warrant signed by an independent judge instead of the administrative warrants the agency generally uses that are signed by another ICE officer. So, ICE officers say, they’re forced to find other areas in which to make arrests.

Shooting angers Maine

Hundreds of people in Maine protested Tuesday over the fatal shooting of Johan Sebastián Durán Guerrero, a 25-year-old Colombian national. Advocacy groups said Guerrero, who had a wife and a young daughter, was authorized to work in the United States.

DHS said Monday that an officer, “fearing for public safety,” shot and killed Durán Guerrero while officers were watching the home of someone they believed was in the U.S. illegally and facing a final order of removal from the country. It said in a post on X that when ICE tried to stop a car driven by someone who came from the home, the person attempted to flee in the vehicle and the officer fired.

That was a shift from how King earlier described the encounter, when he said Mullin told him the officer opened fire after the man tried to use his vehicle as a weapon. King said Mullin told him the officers were trying to serve an arrest warrant but not for the man who was shot.

In a scathing post on X, outgoing Colombian President Gustavo Petro called the shooting a targeted killing “at the hands of the U.S. government.”

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Petro, who has openly quarreled with Trump, urged Trump to provide an explanation and accused ICE officers of treating Durán Guerrero as “an inferior being without rights.”

In Wednesday’s social media post, Trump told ICE to be “judicious, fair and smart, and go back and do your very important job.”

Maine’s congressional delegation on Tuesday demanded a “comprehensive, transparent, and expedited investigation.”

Questions surround the shooting

Photos showed bullet holes in Durán Guerrero’s car windshield, but the officers involved in the shooting didn’t have body cameras, leaving many questions. Among them are how close the officer was to the vehicle when shooting, whether officers told Durán Guerrero to stop and why ICE believes he had put the public in danger.

Border czar Tom Homan told reporters Tuesday that the investigation needs to play out and that officers will be held accountable if they are found to have acted inappropriately or illegally.

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Maine’s attorney general’s office, which said it is working with federal agencies to investigate, said initial statements suggest the driver was trying to flee in the direction of the officer, whose name hasn’t been released and who was placed on leave.

Collins said Mullin told her the DHS inspector general is investigating in cooperation with the FBI.

Democrats seeking to unseat Collins in November have sought to connect her with ICE’s methods, which have drawn public scrutiny and derision. Collins later said in a statement that although ICE needs to improve, eliminating the agency would make the nation less safe.

Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, a Democrat who is vying for Collins’ seat, called the ICE officers at the shooting “thugs” during a vigil Tuesday in Lewiston.

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Whittle contributed from Biddeford, Maine; Brook from New Orleans; and Sisak from New York.

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