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Levels of fear in markets start to return to normal

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Levels of fear in markets start to return to normal

Traders are not paying a lot to insulate themselves from the sorts of tremors they’ve witnessed over the previous month, with market gauges displaying a few of the excessive trepidation has handed.

Merchants in US inventory and derivatives markets have been intently watching the value of futures on the Cboe’s Vix index, also known as Wall Avenue’s worry gauge. Final month, on the cusp of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the value of March Vix futures rose above the worth of those who expire between April and November, an indication many buyers had hedged towards a right away drop available in the market.

That transfer, a so-called inversion of the Vix futures curve, additionally indicated that buyers anticipated volatility in March to be far greater than additional out sooner or later. It’s a comparatively uncommon improvement given buyers typically have much less readability of what is going to occur many months from now and because of this pay as much as hedge for that future danger.

However their fears got here to cross, with violent swings in inventory, bond and commodity markets as Russian forces moved into Ukraine and buyers awaited the primary price rise from the Federal Reserve since 2018. The benchmark S&P 500 dropped practically 15 per cent from its peak whereas the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell greater than 20 per cent from its all-time excessive.

In latest days that inversion has reversed, with the value of March Vix futures contracts dipping again beneath those who expire later this 12 months. Merchants stated it indicated that a few of the excessive unease about how far monetary markets may lurch decrease had dissipated.

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Traders have credited that transfer to a number of components, together with the actual fact many funds that had used futures and choices to hedge themselves in March had closed out positions, taking earnings on the latest market declines.

Charlie McElligott, a strategist on Nomura’s derivatives buying and selling desk, stated the transfer meant that futures not supplied a “panicky” market sign and the actual fact the inversion had disappeared meant some funds would start to dip their toes again into markets.

The accompanying sharp drop within the Cboe’s Vvix index, which measures how unstable the Vix index is, signalled that demand to hedge tail danger had “cratered”, he famous.

Whereas the struggle in Ukraine continues to rage, merchants stated different tail dangers that had been onerous to hedge had been not as worrisome. Some pointed to the truth that policymakers on the Fed final week laid out their plans for lifting rates of interest, eradicating some uncertainty over how aggressively the US central financial institution would tighten coverage.

“Submit-Fed your occasion horizon has modified a bit,” stated Peter van Dooijeweert, a hedging specialist at hedge fund Man Group. “Do you assume the Fed gives you any new data within the subsequent assembly? Possibly not.”

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As an alternative he stated inflation and employment knowledge over the subsequent three to 12 months would form how the Fed responds, and in flip, how markets moved.

“Now I’m extra nervous in regards to the subsequent three months versus three weeks in the past the place I used to be simply nervous about tomorrow,” he added.

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Noah Lyles wins men’s 100-metre final by razor-thin margin

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Noah Lyles wins men’s 100-metre final by razor-thin margin

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Noah Lyles of the US won the men’s 100-metre final at the Paris Olympics in a razor-thin photo finish over Jamaican Kishane Thompson, becoming the first American to claim the title in 20 years.

Inside a packed Stade de France on Sunday night, Lyles crossed the finish in a personal best 9.784 seconds to Thompson’s 9.789. Fred Kerley, also of the US and the silver medallist at the Tokyo Olympics, finished third in 9.81. Marcell Jacobs, defending champion, finished fifth. It was the first time in history that eight men broke 10 seconds in a wind-legal race.

Long considered one of the marquee events of the entire Olympic Games, the 100-metre final has catapulted winners to instant global fame. From 2008 through 2016, the event was dominated by reigning world record holder Usain Bolt of Jamaica, and while no sprinter has run within a tenth of a second of his fastest time of 9.58, Lyles has been positioning himself for years to inherit the position as the face of global sprinting.

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As a recent star of the Netflix series Sprint, Lyles, 27, developed elaborate narratives around himself through each season, including one in the early part of this year by bringing a secretive metal briefcase to each meet, promising to reveal its contents at the US Olympic trials in June. The briefcase contained his running kit.

Technically superior at the 200 metres, in which his personal best of 19.31 is the third-best of all-time, Lyles joked in the series that the 200 metres is his “wife”, while the 100 metres is his “mistress”. He will also contest the longer event in Paris, where the first heats begin on Monday.

As the favourite in the 200 metres, Lyles could become the first man since Bolt in 2016 to complete the 100 and 200 double at the games. 

Thompson, 23, became a late favourite for a medal in Paris after running 9.77 seconds at the Jamaican championships in June, the fastest time in the world this year. He was the top-ranked runner after Sunday evening’s semi-finals, in which he qualified with 9.80.

Speaking after the final, Lyles said he was convinced Thompson had won until the official times flashed on the stadium big screen. “I was like, I think you got that one, big dog”. But he held up his bronze medal from the 200 metres at the Tokyo Games, saying it had fuelled his three-year journey to get to the top of the podium. “It feels good to back it up”, he said. 

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In recent months, a bevy of new investors including hedge fund manager Bill Ackman and Reddit co-founder Alexis Ohanian have pledged money towards new professional track meets aimed at capitalising on the apex of interest in the sport at the Olympics. Lyles said he wanted people involved in the sport “to make this as available as possible for people to come and watch. Not [fans] having to go in through back alley websites . . . this needs to be accessible, because this is a world sport”.

Sunday night’s podium reshuffles the ongoing sprint rivalry between the Jamaicans and Americans after Jacobs, 29, became the shock winner in Tokyo. Since then, the Italian has struggled with injury and inconsistency, failing to make the 100-metre final in the 2022 and 2023 world championships.

Lyles’ victory came a night after the US had to settle for silver in the women’s 100-metre final, with St Lucia’s Julien Alfred winning gold — her country’s first Olympic medal.

The last American to win the men’s Olympic 100 metres was Justin Gatlin at the 2004 Games in Athens.

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Scottie Scheffler wins Olympic gold after a comeback victory

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Scottie Scheffler wins Olympic gold after a comeback victory

Gold medalist Scottie Scheffler, of the United States, poses with his medal following the medal ceremony for men’s golf during the medal ceremony at the 2024 Summer Olympics on Sunday, Aug. 4.

Matt York/AP


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Matt York/AP

Despite being the No. 1 golfer in the world, Scottie Scheffler was far from a gold medal going into the final round of men’s Olympic golf at France’s Le Golf National on Sunday. At his starting tee, Scheffler sat four shots back — behind fellow American Xander Schauffele and Spain’s Jon Rahm.

That all changed after Scheffler sunk a half-dozen birdies in the last nine holes of the French golf course. The 28-year-old’s near-flawless round launched him to the top of the Olympic podium and won the United States gold — leaving England’s Tommy Fleetwood with silver and Japan’s Hideki Matsuyama with bronze.

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The reigning Masters champion started building momentum early Sunday when he birdied his first hole with a 10-foot putt. But after 10 holes and a few more birdies, Scheffler still sat four strokes behind Rahm, who seemed destined for Olympic gold.

Yet the Spanish golfer quickly lost his lead with a few bogeys and a double-bogey on the last few holes. Scheffler, on the other hand, seemingly could not miss. On holes 14 through 17, Scheffler kept climbing the leader board with birdie after birdie. It was his putt on the 17th green — his fourth consecutive birdie — that ultimately secured his victory.

Scheffler’s comeback victory for Olympic gold comes during an eventful professional and personal year for the 28-year-old. In April, Scheffler won his second green jacket at the Masters in Augusta, Ga. Shortly after, his wife, Meredith Scheffler, gave birth to Bennett — their first child. Then, just days after the birth, Scheffler was arrested, handcuffed and charged with a felony for assaulting a police officer with his vehicle in Louisville during the PGA Championship. The charges were dropped by late May after Jefferson County Attorney Mike O’Connell agreed that the incident was “a big misunderstanding.”

Gold medalist Scottie Scheffler, center, with silver medalist Tommy Fleetwood, left, and bronze medalist Hideki Matsuyama listen to the nation anthem of the U.S. during the medal ceremony for men's golf.

Gold medalist Scottie Scheffler, center, with silver medalist Tommy Fleetwood, left, and bronze medalist Hideki Matsuyama listen to the nation anthem of the U.S. during the medal ceremony for men’s golf.

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On June 18, the USA Olympic golf team selected Scheffler along with three other golfers. Scheffler’s victory is the second consecutive Olympic gold for the men’s USA team; fellow teammate Xander Schauffele won it all at the 2020 Tokyo Olympic games.

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During the medal ceremony on Sunday, Scheffler grew visibly emotional and broke into tears as The Star Spangled Banner played.

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Western governments step up calls for citizens to leave Lebanon

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Western governments step up calls for citizens to leave Lebanon

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Western governments stepped up calls for their citizens to leave Lebanon while ​​commercial flights were still available, as an anxious region braced for the possibility of a full-blown regional war after twin assassinations in Beirut and Tehran. 

France urged its citizens to leave the country as soon as possible due to the “very volatile ​​security context”, following similar calls by the UK, US and Jordan on Saturday, which cited the escalating tensions between Israel, Iran and the Hizbollah militant group.

“We encourage those wishing to leave Lebanon to book any available ticket, even if that flight does not depart immediately or does not follow the itinerary of their choice,” the US embassy in Lebanon said in an email to its citizens.

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“Leave now,” UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy told Britons in Lebanon. “Tensions are high, and the situation could deteriorate rapidly . . . my message to British nationals there is clear.”

Sweden on Saturday shut its embassy in Beirut, calling on all Swedes to leave the country as soon as possible.

Several airlines have suspended, rescheduled or cancelled flights to and from Beirut this week, including Air France-KLM Group, Kuwait Airlines, Lufthansa Group, Aegean, Emirates and Qatar Airways. Some airlines suspended services to Israel.

Israel has publicly claimed responsibility for the assassination of senior Hizbollah commander Fuad Shukr in a densely packed neighbourhood in the militant group’s stronghold in Beirut, but it has neither confirmed nor denied carrying out the killing of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on Wednesday. 

Iran said Haniyeh was killed by a short-range projectile that was fired into the official residence where he was staying in Tehran, and vowed to punish Israel.

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The country’s Revolutionary Guards said on Saturday that the assassination was “orchestrated and executed” by Israel and accused the “criminal” US of complicity in the strike by providing support for the Jewish state.

Hassan Nasrallah, leader of Lebanon-based Hizbollah, has also vowed revenge against the Israel. 

Israel and the Lebanese militant group have traded cross-border fire with increasing intensity since Hamas’s October 7 attack. But the simmering conflict has not spilled over into a full-blown conflagration, thanks partly to US-led diplomatic efforts to contain the violence, and partly to a hesitation by both arch-foes to trigger a conflict that could devastate both countries.

Diplomacy has intensified over the past week to try to avert a regional war, while the US has deployed additional forces to the region to help defend Israel.

But Hizbollah affiliates have lashed out at the US envoy who has been working for months to broker a deal between Hizbollah and Israel to end their clashes, accusing Washington of bearing responsibility for Shukr’s assassination. It underlines the challenges the US faces in easing tensions.

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The Lebanese militant group was not in a “listening mood”, according to two people familiar with the talks, saying it would respond however and whenever it wanted.  

Many Lebanese who have the option have left the capital for areas deemed safer. Those that stayed filled concert venues, restaurants and bars this weekend, confused about what they should be doing while waiting for imminent war. 

“I fought with myself for hours about whether to go out or stay home but I decided a glass of wine or three would help calm my nerves,” said 42-year-old Selim Georges, sitting in a popular Beirut restaurant on Sunday. 

The calls by western governments to leave Lebanon this weekend added to fears in the country as thousands of Lebanese expats who are home for the summer debated whether to stay or go. 

France estimates that some 23,000 citizens live in Lebanon, with thousands more visiting the country this summer, while the UK estimates some 16,000 of its citizens currently live in Lebanon.

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