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Investment banks are cutting their growth forecasts for China, believing Beijing risks undershooting its official target of about 5 per cent as confidence wanes in the world’s second-largest economy.
Bank of America on Wednesday lowered its forecast to 4.8 per cent from 5 per cent and Canadian investment bank TD Securities cut to 4.7 per cent from 5.1 per cent. The moves followed a UBS cut last week and a series of similar reductions over the summer.
Economists at Citi this week warned that Beijing’s official growth target — which is the lowest in decades at “around 5 per cent” — “could be at risk”, adding to mounting concerns over the trajectory of China’s economy as policymakers grapple with a prolonged property sector slowdown and weak consumer and investor confidence.
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The median forecast for full-year gross domestic product growth across dozens of economists polled by Bloomberg has slipped to 4.8 per cent, compared with 4.9 per cent in mid-August. Last year, China grew 5.2 per cent, in line with forecasts.
Bank of America analysts said China’s growth engine was “sputtering” in the second and third quarters, adding that the economy “continues to struggle with a confidence problem”.
For decades, China’s GDP growth easily met the government’s target, which is announced at a meeting of the rubber-stamp parliament early each year. But in the wake of the Covid pandemic, the figure has attracted close scrutiny.
“I think [the reason] why it’s now acquired an increased importance is [that] there are obviously downside risks to growth,” said Frederic Neumann, chief Asia economist at HSBC, which expects 4.9 per cent growth. “By putting the growth target out there, you’re anchoring expectations in the market.”
He added there was “little doubt” Chinese policymakers could steer growth towards 5 per cent given their “strong grip on the economy”.
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Weaker than expected second-quarter growth of 4.7 per cent in July set off a flurry of forecast cuts. Goldman Sachs, Citi and Barclays reduced their full-year growth targets in July to 4.9, 4.8 and 4.8 per cent respectively, all from 5 per cent. JPMorgan expects growth of 4.6 per cent.
UBS chief China economist Wang Tao last week said the Swiss bank, which now projects growth of 4.6 per cent for 2024 and just 4 per cent for 2025, lowered its expectations “due to a deeper-than-expected property downturn which we believe has yet to bottom” and its impact on “household consumption”.
UBS has also revised down its China GDP deflator, which reflects the difference between nominal and real prices, because it expects “deflationary pressures to persist for longer”.
Ahead of August data releases next week on the economy and inflation, Citi on Tuesday said China last month suffered a “double whammy of weather shocks and weak demand”, pointing to an 8.5 per cent contraction in steel output, widening from 5.3 per cent in July.
Hunter Chan, an economist at Standard Chartered, which has forecast 4.8 per cent growth for the year, also pointed to the risk of “escalating trade tensions between China and other economies” on top of the drag from a housing slowdown in the first half. “Right now, the government’s policy on the housing sector is about stabilising [it],” he said.
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China missed its 2022 GDP target, expanding just 3 per cent on a goal of 5.5 per cent after a series of Covid lockdowns. A drumroll of disappointing data releases this year has spurred calls for more government stimulus.
Alex Loo, a strategist at TD Securities, projected Beijing would miss its target again this year unless there was a mid-year budget expansion, citing “faltering spending”, a lack of private investment and “pessimism taking hold” among domestic companies and major importers.
He said officials were likely to “steer away from mention of the target like in 2022” if the August data misses expectations again.
Is there such a thing as an “off year” for U.S. elections? The elections in 2025 were not nearly as all-encompassing as last year’s presidential race, nor as chaotic as what is expected from next year’s midterms. But hundreds of elections were held in dozens of states, including local contests, mayoral races, special congressional elections and two highly anticipated governor’s races.
Many of the elections were seen as early tests of how lasting President Trump’s 2024 gains might be and as a preview of what might happen in 2026.
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Here are five takeaways from the 2025 election cycle.
In Elections Seen as Referendums on Trump, Democrats Won Big
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Democrats did well in nearly all of this year’s elections, continuing a pattern that has played out across off-year elections for the last two decades: The party that wins the White House routinely loses ground in the next round of elections.
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Virginia and New Jersey have historically swung away from the president’s party in governor’s races
The change in the final margin from the presidential election to the next election for governor
Sources: Virginia Department of Elections, N.J. Division of Elections, Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Elections.The New York Times
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Elections in these years are often viewed as referendums on the president’s performance. And Mr. Trump’s approval ratings, after months of holding steady, took a dip in November.
A notable shift came in New Jersey, where the majority-Hispanic townships that swung toward Mr. Trump in 2024 swung back to Democrats in the 2025 governor’s race. That contributed significantly to the victory of Representative Mikie Sherrill, the Democratic candidate, over Jack Ciattarelli, the Trump-backed Republican.
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New Jersey’s majority-Hispanic towns snapped back left in 2025
Each line is a township whose width is sized to the number of votes cast in 2025
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Note: Includes townships where more than 500 votes were cast in 2025.Sources: N.J. county clerks, N.J. Division of Elections, U.S. Census Bureau.The New York Times
The leftward swing was viewed by many political commentators as a reaction to Mr. Trump. If that is the case, it remains to be seen how much of it will carry over into 2026.
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Progressive and Moderate Democrats Are Both Claiming Victories
Democratic strategists continue to debate whether the party should embrace progressive candidates or more moderate ones. And in 2025, the election results had both sides feeling emboldened.
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In New York City, Zohran Mamdani, a democratic socialist who struggled to garner support from the Democratic Party, defeated former Gov. Andrew Cuomo by nine points. A similar story played out in Jersey City, where James Solomon, a progressive, crushed former Gov. James McGreevey of New Jersey in a mayoral runoff. Progressives also prevailed in cities like Detroit and Seattle.
Centrist Democrats, meanwhile, came away with arguably the two biggest wins of the year against Trump-endorsed Republicans. Abigail Spanberger and Ms. Sherrill, both Democrats, outperformed their polling estimates and decisively won the high-profile governor’s races in Virginia and New Jersey.
The debate will continue among Democrats as several 2026 primaries have prominent progressive and moderate candidates going head to head.
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In Texas, Representative Jasmine Crockett, a progressive, entered the primary race for a U.S. Senate seat against the more moderate James Talarico. A similar situation has developed in Maine, where Graham Platner has pitched himself as a more progressive alternative to Janet Mills in the party’s attempt to unseat Senator Susan Collins, a Republican. Other progressives, like Julie Gonzales in Colorado and Brad Lander in New York, are challenging incumbent Democrats in primary races.
A Record 14 Women Will Serve as Governors in 2026
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Virginians elected Ms. Spanberger as their first female governor. In New Jersey, Ms. Sherrill became the second woman to secure the position. Both women significantly outperformed Vice President Kamala Harris’s margins from the 2024 presidential race, improving on her results by almost 10 points.
Female candidates also did well down the ballot. Eileen Higgins will be the first female mayor in Miami after defeating Emilio González, who had the support of Mr. Trump. And, in Seattle, Katie Wilson defeated the incumbent mayor, Bruce Harrell.
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States that will have female governors in 2026
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Source: Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University.The New York Times
Come 2026, a record 14 women — 10 Democrats and four Republicans — will serve as governors, with six of them expected to run for re-election next year. (More than a dozen states have yet to elect a female governor.)
In New York, it is likely that both candidates will be women: Representative Elise Stefanik, a Republican, began a campaign last month against the incumbent, Kathy Hochul.
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Special Elections Are Still Very Special (for Democrats)
Despite not flipping any House seats, Democrats outperformed Ms. Harris’s 2024 results in every House special election this cycle. Their wins, however, offer limited insight into what might happen in 2026.
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Special elections, which happen outside of regular election cycles to fill vacated seats, draw fewer voters than those in midterm or presidential years. Special election voters tend to be older and highly engaged politically, and they are more likely to be college educated. That has given Democrats a distinct advantage in recent years, and 2025 was no exception.
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Democrats did well in the 2025 special elections
Democratic candidates in this year’s special congressional elections outperformed Kamala Harris’s 2024 margins.
Sources: Special election results are from The Associated Press, and 2024 presidential margins by congressional district are estimates from The New York Times.The New York Times
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Democratic strength in special elections extended to lower-profile races held this year. In Virginia, Democrats secured 64 out of 100 seats in the House of Delegates. In Georgia, Democrats won two seats on the Georgia Public Service Commission, the first time the party won a non-federal statewide office since 2006. Pennsylvania Democrats swept the major Bucks County contests, electing a Democratic district attorney for the first time. And, in Mississippi, Democrats broke the Republican supermajority in the State Senate.
Odd-Numbered Years Are Still Very Odd (for Election Polls)
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Polling in off-year election cycles is challenging because it’s hard to know who will turn out to vote. This year, the polls significantly overestimated the Republicans in the Virginia and New Jersey governor’s races, which both had particularly high turnout for an off year. In 2021, polls had the opposite problem, as they overestimated Democrats.
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Polls missed in opposite directions in 2021 and 2025
Each dot is a poll from the relevant governor’s election, positioned according to its polling error in the election.
Notes: Chart includes polls fielded in October or November of the election cycle. Polling error refers to the difference between the actual result margin and the poll margin.Sources: Polls from 2025 were collected by The New York Times, and polls from 2021 were collected by the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research and 538.The New York Times
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Polling misses don’t necessarily carry over from cycle to cycle: Despite the leftward bias of the polls in 2021, they performed very well in 2022. After each election, pollsters look at the result and evaluate their performance, and then note where they went wrong. Analysis from groups like the American Association for Public Opinion Research frequently indicates that errors come from an incorrect sense of who shows up to vote. Pollsters then try to adjust for this error in the next election cycle.
The errors of 2025 may prove largely irrelevant, however, as the midterm elections will feature a larger, very different pool of voters with a new set of races, and a new host of lessons for pollsters to learn.
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Off years are weird, and the polling errors they produce often are as well.
MOSCOW — Russian President Vladimir Putin said Friday that Moscow’s troops were advancing across the battlefield in Ukraine, voicing confidence that the Kremlin’s military goals would be achieved.
Speaking at his highly orchestrated year-end news conference, Putin declared that Russian forces have “fully seized strategic initiative” and would make more gains by the year’s end.
Russia’s larger, better-equipped army has made slow but steady progress in Ukraine in recent months.
The annual live news conference is combined with a nationwide call-in show that offers Russians across the country the opportunity to ask questions of Putin, who has led the country for 25 years. Putin has used it to cement his power and air his views on domestic and global affairs.
This year, observers are watching for Putin’s remarks on Ukraine and the U.S.-backed peace plan there.
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U.S. President Donald Trump has unleashed an extensive diplomatic push to end nearly four years of fighting after Russia sent troops into Ukraine in February 2022, but Washington’s efforts have run into sharply conflicting demands by Moscow and Kyiv.
Putin reaffirmed that Moscow was ready for a peaceful settlement that would address the “root causes” of the conflict, a reference to the Kremlin’s tough conditions for a deal.
Earlier this week, Putin warned this week that Moscow would seek to extend its gains in Ukraine if Kyiv and its Western allies reject the Kremlin’s demands.
The Russian leader wants all the areas in four key regions captured by his forces, as well as the Crimean Peninsula, which was illegally annexed in 2014, to be recognized as Russian territory. He also has insisted that Ukraine withdraw from some areas in eastern Ukraine that Moscow’s forces haven’t captured yet — demands Kyiv has rejected.
new video loaded: Trump Mocks Obama, Biden in His Presidential ‘Walk of Fame’
The White House unveiled new plaques near the Oval Office mocking some of President Trump’s predecessors. The new display distorts history and aligns with Mr. Trump’s worldview.