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In charts: how India has changed under Narendra Modi

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In charts: how India has changed under Narendra Modi

In last year’s Independence Day speech at the Red Fort in Delhi, Narendra Modi made a bold pledge: India would become a developed economy by 2047, when it celebrates 100 years since its founding. The country had three things in its favour, the prime minister declared: “demography, democracy and diversity”.

The vow would have seemed implausible a decade ago. In 2013, the year before Modi took power, India was identified by Morgan Stanley among a group of vulnerable emerging-market economies, dubbed the “Fragile Five” for their reliance on foreign capital to fuel their economies and, in many cases, big current account deficits.

Ten years later, Modi’s India is firmly in the sights of international investors, consultants and trading partners as one of the world’s fastest-growing big economies and a critical “China plus one” destination for companies seeking to reduce their exposure to political currents in Beijing.

In India’s upcoming national election, expected between April and May, Modi will make much of his Bharatiya Janata party’s economic record during its 10 years in government, touting its successes in delivering growth, reducing poverty and building infrastructure including airports, railways and roads.

But what do the numbers show?

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The Financial Times has analysed official data for gross domestic product growth, unemployment and poverty reduction, as well as indicators tracking job creation and employment, examining how they have performed in absolute terms and comparatively against other countries in some cases.

India’s statistics are in many cases deficient — the country has not held a census since 2011, for example — or in dispute, as in the case of unemployment data, but the numbers point to some clear trends.

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During Modi’s two terms in office, India has on average been one of the fastest-growing large economies. Between 2014 and 2022, GDP grew at an average of 5.6 per cent in compound annual growth rate terms. An average of 14 other large developing economies had a CAGR of 3.8 per cent over the same period.

But India’s growth rate was even higher from 2000 to 2010, at more than 6 per cent on average. Economists said India’s economy would need to grow faster than its current 6-7 per cent rate in order to absorb a growing number of entrants into the workforce and meet Modi’s goal of reaching developed country status by 2047.

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India is the poorest among the Brics nations, said Raghuram Rajan, professor of finance at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and a former Reserve Bank of India governor, referring to the grouping that also includes Brazil, Russia, China and South Africa. It also “has a much longer distance of travel before it reaches their level of per capita income”, he said. “Growth has been good, but it has to be set in perspective.”

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Extreme poverty has continued to fall since Modi took power. The share of India’s population living in extreme poverty has fallen from 18.7 per cent in 2015 to 12 per cent in 2021, according to World Bank data. Urban and rural regions both registered a drop in the share of people living below the international poverty line of $2.15 a day.

These gains are partly thanks to generous social transfers to the poorest under Modi’s government. In November, India extended one of the biggest such schemes, launched during the Covid-19 pandemic, under which more than 813mn people, or more than half of the population, benefit from free food grains for another five years.

“The emphasis of this government has been on efficient delivery of a lot of welfare schemes,” said Krishnamurthy Subramanian, executive director at the IMF and a former chief economic adviser to the Modi government.

Its use of technology, including the creation of more than 500mn bank accounts for the poor, linked with biometric identification via India’s digital ID system Aadhaar, has “helped direct welfare transfers precisely to the beneficiaries and eliminate pilferage to middlemen”, he added.

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Rapid economic growth has opened the door to the middle class for tens — by some measures hundreds — of millions of Indians over the past decade.

According to data from household surveys conducted by People Research on India’s Consumer Economy, an Udaipur-based non-profit think-tank, the middle class — comprising people with annual family income of Rs500,000-Rs3mn ($6,700-$40,000 at 2020-21 prices) — has been among the fastest-growing income groups since Modi took power in 2014.

“The top income segment — the rich — has soared from 30mn to 90mn, while 520mn are middle class currently, up from 300mn in 2014,” said Rajesh Shukla, the think-tank’s managing director and chief executive.

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Since Modi took power, his government has taken steps to improve public health and hygiene, including a nationwide campaign to build public toilets. Infant mortality has also fallen steadily, though the improvement predates Modi’s time in office. As of 2020, India’s infant mortality rate was lower than South Africa’s.

While the Modi government has presided over a period of mostly high growth, the economy has failed to create enough jobs. Unemployment — which has especially hit the country’s youth, the world’s largest population of young people — figured prominently in hard-fought state elections in 2023 and will be a point of attack for Modi’s opponents in this year’s election for the lower house of parliament.

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The jobless rate has barely budged during Modi’s time in office and exceeded 10 per cent in October for the first time since the pandemic, according to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy, which produces India’s most-cited unemployment figures. Among young people aged 15-34, the CMIE figures are even worse: unemployment in that group stood at 45.4 per cent in 2023.

Some economists — as well as the Modi government itself — say the CMIE data is inadequate and prefer to cite unemployment figures gathered by India’s statistics ministry in its Periodic Labour Force Survey, which show a decline in jobless rates.

But in a country where millions work in menial or low-quality jobs, other analysts say India’s unemployment numbers cannot be trusted at all. Ashoka Mody, visiting professor of international economic policy at Princeton University and author of the scathing economic history India Is Broken, calls the official unemployment numbers “a meaningless statistic in the Indian context”, arguing that it hides a bigger problem of underemployment.

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Women account for a smaller percentage of the labour force than when Modi took power in 2014. India’s female labour force participation rate fell from 25 per cent in 2014 to 24 per cent in 2022, lower than regional neighbours Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Pakistan.

Economists have said getting more women into work would boost India’s growth — by up to 1.5 per cent, according to one World Bank estimate — but safety issues and social pressure prevent many from doing so.

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“One problem is the availability of jobs, and the availability of jobs where women feel safe outside the home,” said Swati Narayan, associate professor at OP Jindal Global University and author of Unequal, a book about why India lags behind its south Asian neighbours in social and economic development. “In India, there are a lot of taboos about women going outside to work.”

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Spending on roads, railways and other infrastructure has surged under Modi and has been an engine of economic growth. India plans to spend Rs5tn, or 1.7 per cent of GDP, on capital expenditure for building roads and railways, up from 0.4 per cent of GDP in 2014, according to calculations based on the FT’s analysis of Union Budget data.

Data compiled by CMIE also point to a construction boom since Modi took office, with India adding more than 10,000km of roads each year since 2018.

“This is something that this government has done very well — lots of road and rail network construction,” said Rajan at the University of Chicago.

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India has boasted of its success in bringing nearly 1bn people online, promoting its public digital infrastructure as a model for other developing countries.

The Aadhaar system of digital IDs began under Modi’s predecessors in a Congress-led government but has been brought to life during his tenure and parlayed into a full-fledged digital payments ecosystem, dubbed the India Stack. 

The drive to bring more Indians online was supported by a proliferation of cheap, mostly made-in-India smartphones, which more than 60 per cent of Indians now carry. According to India’s government, the value of digital transactions has grown 70 per cent over the past five years, from Rs1,962tn in the 2017-18 fiscal year to Rs3,355tn in 2022-23.

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India prides itself on its globally connected information technology sector, with a host of domestic and foreign companies clustered in southern India, especially around Bengaluru and Hyderabad, making the country the “back office of the world”.

But India is falling short on research and development spending. Its share of the economy has dropped under Modi to less than 0.7 per cent of GDP, a lower rate than that of any other Brics country and far below the roughly 5 per cent of GDP spent by some of the world’s biggest R&D centres, led by South Korea and Israel.

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While many economic indicators have improved, democracy watchdog groups have downgraded India’s rankings on basic freedoms over the past 10 years.

The BBC’s India head office and Indian news website NewsClick were raided in 2023, and journalists from other organisations have faced criminal charges or jail time in what watchdog groups describe as a crackdown on free expression.

India’s press freedom ranking according to Reporters Without Borders (RSF) dropped to 161 in 2023, down from 140 in 2014 and only three places higher than Russia, which unlike India cannot credibly claim to be a democracy.

Defenders of the Modi government’s record have questioned the reliability of rankings on human rights and civil liberties compiled by RSF, Freedom House and other groups, while some Indian civil society groups have argued that a free press — including an independent business press — is crucial not just to protecting Indian democracy but its economy, too.

“The reason you move to ‘China plus one’ is because of the undemocratic and opaque power structure in China,” said Yamini Aiyar, chief executive of the Centre for Policy Research think-tank. “If India loses this piece, it will have huge repercussions in the long run.”

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Arson engulfs Mississippi synagogue, a congregation once bombed by Ku Klux Klan

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Arson engulfs Mississippi synagogue, a congregation once bombed by Ku Klux Klan

A fire damaged the Beth Israel Congregation in Jackson, Miss. The fire department said arson was the cause.

Hannah Orlansky/Beth Israel Congregation


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Hannah Orlansky/Beth Israel Congregation

Authorities have charged one person with arson in a fire that badly damaged Beth Israel Congregation in Jackson, Miss., early Saturday morning. The Jackson Fire Department, the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms & Explosives, and the FBI are investigating.

Zach Shemper, Beth Israel Congregation president, said he’s stunned.

“Crazy things happen all over the world and nothing really hits home until it actually hits directly home,” he told Mississippi Public Broadcasting. “When it hits home, it’s just hard. Honestly, I’m still trying to wrap my own head around it.”

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Shemper also released a statement saying the synagogue and its 150 families are resilient.

“As Jackson’s only synagogue, Beth Israel is a beloved institution, and it is the fellowship of our neighbors and extended community that will see us through,” he said.

The congregation was founded in 1860, according to Beth Israel’s website. In 1967, local Ku Klux Klan members bombed the place of worship and the home of the rabbi at the time, who had spoken out against racism and segregation. No one was hurt in the civil rights-era bombings or Saturday’s fire.

Charles Felton, Jackson Fire Department chief of fire investigations, told NPR in an interview on Sunday that flames and smoke caused extensive damage and destroyed Beth Israel’s library, where he says the fire was started. The fire was reported to 911 just after 3 a.m.

“All contents in that library are destroyed. There’s not much that can be retrieved from the library area. The other portions of the building do not have actual fire damage, but they have damage as far as smoke and soot,” he said.

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Shemper said the fire destroyed two Torahs, the Jewish sacred texts, and damaged five others. A Torah that survived the Holocaust was protected by a glass display case and was not damaged. The synagogue’s Tree of Life plaque honoring congregants’ meaningful occasions was destroyed. Shemper said the library, administrative offices and the lobby suffered the most damage.

Surveillance video shows a man wearing a hoodie and a mask pouring liquid from a can inside the synagogue, according to Shemper. Felton said Jackson Fire investigators later received information from an area hospital that led them to the suspect, who was arrested Saturday evening.

“There was a suspect possibly burned at a local hospital,” he told NPR. “They did go to the hospital at which point they interviewed the person of interest and that person did confess to having involvement in the fire.”

The Jackson Fire Department’s powers include the authority to charge suspects, according to Felton, who said the department has filed arson charges against the suspect, who authorities have not publicly named. He said federal authorities will make a determination on whether to pursue hate crime charges.

The FBI’s office in Jackson said in a statement that it was aware of the incident and was working with other law enforcement on the investigation.

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Jackson Mayor John Horhn said the city stands with Beth Israel and the Jewish community.

“Acts of antisemitism, racism, and religious hatred are attacks on Jackson as a whole and will be treated as acts of terror against residents’ safety and freedom to worship,” said a statement from the mayor’s office.

Beth Israel is planning to immediately move forward.

“With support from our community, we will rebuild. Beth Israel Congregation has been the Jewish spiritual home in Jackson, Mississippi, for over 160 years,” said Shemper’s statement. “We are devastated but ready to rebuild.”

He said several local churches have offered temporary space for Beth Israel to continue services.

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The attack comes after investigators say a father and son opened fire on Jewish people celebrating Hanukkah on Bondi Beach in Sydney, Australia, last month. Fifteen people were killed and dozens were injured.

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Nationwide anti-ICE protests call for accountability after Renee Good’s death

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Nationwide anti-ICE protests call for accountability after Renee Good’s death

A large bird puppet crafted at In the Heart of the Beast Puppet and Mask Theatre in Minneapolis is carried down Lake Street during a march demanding ICE’s removal from Minnesota on Saturday, Jan. 10, 2026.

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People have been taking to the streets nationwide this weekend to protest the Trump administration’s immigration enforcement tactics following the death of Renee Good in Minneapolis, a 37-year-old woman who was shot and killed by a U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officer this week.

At least 1,000 events across the U.S. were planned for Saturday and Sunday, according to Indivisible, a progressive grassroots coalition of activists helping coordinate the movement it calls “ICE Out For Good Weekend of Action.”

Leah Greenberg, a co-executive director of Indivisible, said people are coming together to “grieve, honor those we’ve lost, and demand accountability from a system that has operated with impunity for far too long.”

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“Renee Nicole Good was a wife, a mother of three, and a member of her community. She, and the dozens of other sons, daughters, friends, siblings, parents, and community members who have been killed by ICE, should be alive today,” Greenberg said in a statement on Friday. “ICE’s violence is not a statistic, it has names, families, and futures attached to it, and we refuse to look away or stay silent.”

Large crowds of demonstrators carried signs and shouted “ICE out now!” as protests continued across Minneapolis on Saturday. One of those protestors, Cameron Kritikos, told NPR that he is worried that the presence of more ICE agents in the city could lead to more violence or another death.

“If more ICE officers are deployed to the streets, especially a place here where there’s very clear public opposition to the terrorizing of our neighborhoods, I’m nervous that there’s going to be more violence,” the 31-year grocery store worker said. “I’m nervous that there are going to be more clashes with law enforcement officials, and at the end of the day I think that’s not what anyone wants.”

Demonstrators in Minneapolis on Saturday, Jan. 10, 2026.

Demonstrators in Minneapolis on Saturday, Jan. 10, 2026.

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The night before, hundreds of city and state police officers responded to a “noise protest” in downtown Minneapolis. An estimated 1,000 people gathered Friday night, according to Minneapolis Police Chief Brian O’Hara, and 29 people were arrested.

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People demonstrated outside of hotels where ICE agents were believed to be staying. They chanted, played drums and banged pots. O’Hara said that a group of people split from the main protest and began damaging hotel windows. One police officer was injured from a chunk of ice that was hurled at officers, he added.

Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey condemned the acts of violence but praised what he said was the “vast majority” of protesters who remained peaceful, during a morning news conference.

“To anyone who causes property damage or puts others in danger: you will be arrested. We are standing up to Donald Trump’s chaos not with our own brand of chaos, but with care and unity,” Frey wrote on social media.

Commenting on the protests, Department of Homeland Security (DHS) spokesperson Tricia McLaughlin told NPR in a statement, “the First Amendment protects speech and peaceful assembly — not rioting, assault and destruction,” adding, “DHS is taking measures to uphold the rule of law and protect public safety and our officers.”

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Good was fatally shot the day after DHS launched a large-scale immigration enforcement operation in Minnesota set to deploy 2,000 immigration officers to the state.

In Philadelphia, police estimated about 500 demonstrators “were cooperative and peaceful” at a march that began Saturday morning at City Hall, Philadelphia Police Department spokesperson Tanya Little told NPR in a statement. And no arrests were made.

In Portland, Ore., demonstrators rallied and lined the streets outside of a hospital on Saturday afternoon, where immigration enforcement agents bring detainees who are injured during an arrest, reported Oregon Public Broadcasting.

A man and woman were shot and injured by U.S. Border Patrol agents on Thursday in the city. DHS said the shooting happened during a targeted vehicle stop and identified the driver as Luis David Nino-Moncada, and the passenger as Yorlenys Betzabeth Zambrano-Contreras, both from Venezuela. As was the case in their assertion about Good’s fatal shooting, Homeland Security officials claimed the federal agent acted in self-defense after Nino-Moncada and Zambrano-Contreras “weaponized their vehicle.”

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Why men should really be reading more fiction

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Why men should really be reading more fiction

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A friend sent a meme to a group chat last week that, like many internet memes before it, managed to implant itself deep into my brain and capture an idea in a way that more sophisticated, expansive prose does not always manage. Somewhat ironically, the meme was about the ills of the internet. 

“People in 1999 using the internet as an escape from reality,” the text read, over an often-used image from a TV series of a face looking out of a car window. Below it was another face looking out of a different car window overlaid with the text: “People in 2026 using reality as an escape from the internet.” 

Oof. So simple, yet so spot on. With AI-generated slop — sorry, content — now having overtaken human-generated words and images online, with social media use appearing to have peaked and with “dumb phones” being touted as this year’s status symbol, it does feel as if the tide is beginning to turn towards the general de-enshittification of life. 

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And what could be a better way to resist the ever-swelling stream of mediocrity and nonsense on the internet, and to stick it to the avaricious behemoths of the “attention economy”, than to pick up a work of fiction (ideally not purchased on one of these behemoths’ platforms), with no goal other than sheer pleasure and the enrichment of our lives? But while the tide might have started to turn, we don’t seem to have quite got there yet on the reading front, if we are on our way there at all.

Two-fifths of Britons said last year that they had not read a single book in the previous 12 months, according to YouGov. And, as has been noted many times before on both sides of the Atlantic, it is men who are reading the least — just 53 per cent had read any book over the previous year, compared with 66 per cent of women — both in overall numbers and specifically when it comes to fiction.

Yet pointing this out, and lamenting the “disappearance of literary men”, has become somewhat contentious. A much-discussed Vox article last year asked: “Are men’s reading habits truly a national crisis?” suggesting that they were not and pointing out that women only read an average of seven minutes more fiction per day than men (while failing to note that this itself represents almost 60 per cent more reading time).

Meanwhile an UnHerd op-ed last year argued that “the literary man is not dead”, positing that there exists a subculture of male literature enthusiasts keeping the archetype alive and claiming that “podcasts are the new salons”. 

That’s all well and good, but the truth is that there is a gender gap between men and women when it comes to reading and engaging specifically with fiction, and it’s growing.

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According to a 2022 survey by the US National Endowment for the Arts, 27.7 per cent of men had read a short story or novel over the previous year, down from 35.1 per cent a decade earlier. Women’s fiction-reading habits declined too, but more slowly and from a higher base: 54.6 per cent to 46.9 per cent, meaning that while women out-read men by 55 per cent in 2012 when it came to fiction, they did so by almost 70 per cent in 2022.

The divide is already apparent in young adulthood, and it has widened too: data from 2025 showed girls in England took an A-Level in English literature at an almost four-times-higher rate than boys, with that gap having grown from a rate of about three times higher just eight years earlier.

So the next question is: should we care and, if so, why? Those who argue that yes, we should, tend to give a few reasons. They point out that reading fiction fosters critical thinking, empathy and improves “emotional vocabulary”. They argue that novels often contain heroic figures and strong, virtuous representations of masculinity that can inspire and motivate modern men. They cite Andrew Tate, the titan of male toxicity, who once said that “reading books is for losers who are afraid to learn from life”, and that “books are a total waste of time”, as an example of whose advice not to follow. 

I agree with all of this — wholeheartedly, I might add. But I’m not sure how many of us, women or men, are picking up books in order to become more virtuous people. Perhaps the more compelling, or at least motivating, reason for reading fiction is simply that it offers a form of pleasure and attention that the modern world is steadily eroding. In a hyper-capitalist culture optimised for skimming and distraction, the ability to sit still with a novel is both subversive and truly gratifying. The real question, then, is why so many men are not picking one up.

jemima.kelly@ft.com

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