The presidential race will most likely come down to voters in 10 states that remain competitive, according to the most recent ratings by the Cook Political Report.

There are many combinations of states that could put either Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald J. Trump over the threshold of the 270 electoral votes needed to win.

If both candidates win all of the states in their solid, likely and lean categories, the race would come down to the six tossup states in yellow. Ms. Harris would need 44 electoral votes from the tossup states to win. Mr. Trump would need just 35.

The six states rated as tossups were all won narrowly by Joseph R. Biden Jr. in 2020. If the race comes down to these places, Mr. Trump has an advantage in the electoral math. He could win with just two electorally valuable tossup states — Pennsylvania and Georgia — while all of Ms. Harris’s paths to victory include at least three. If Mr. Trump loses Georgia but wins Pennsylvania, Ms. Harris would still need at least three other tossups (in addition to Georgia) to win.

Of course, some of the states currently rated as leaning or likely Democrat or Republican could also come into play.

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Hedge fund Caxton Associates has made gains of about $270mn this month, as bets on US government debt and the Japanese yen made it one of the big winners from the recent turmoil in global markets.

The London-based firm made 3.9 per cent in its $4.5bn Macro fund, which is personally managed by chief executive Andrew Law, in the first nine days of August, according to numbers sent to investors and seen by the Financial Times. It also made a gain of 1.1 per cent in its $8.5bn Global fund, according to an investor.

The profits come in a turbulent month for global markets, driven by fears that the US Federal Reserve has been too slow to cut interest rates in response to signs of a slowing economy.

US megacap technology stocks and Japanese equities were among the worst hit in the rout, while the market’s “fear gauge” of volatility hit its highest level since the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. 

Caxton declined to comment.

Caxton, which manages $13.5bn in total assets and is one of the world’s best known macro hedge funds, was helped by a bet that short-dated US Treasuries would outperform longer maturities, according to people familiar with its positioning. These so-called “steepener” trades have performed well in recent weeks as investors have started to price in rapid rate cuts by the Fed.

The firm also profited from a bet on the yen, which rallied strongly against the dollar over the past month as investors who had borrowed the Japanese currency to invest in higher yielding assets quickly unwound those positions.

The gains leave Caxton Macro up 9.9 per cent so far this year, according to the investor update, following gains in July, while the Global fund is up 5.2 per cent.

Kirkoswald Capital, the firm run by Australian hedge fund star Greg Coffey, also made “hundreds of millions” of dollars during the market chaos, the FT reported last week.

Macro funds, which bet on moves in global bonds, currencies and other assets, on average have gained just 0.2 per cent so far this year to Monday, according to an index compiled by data group HFR.

Caxton, which was founded by US billionaire Bruce Kovner in 1983, in its early days used to fly copies of the FT from London to New York, which it claimed gave it an advantage over its rivals.

In 2022 it told investors it would shut its Macro fund to new money, following big gains, to avoid it becoming too large and potentially damping returns.

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Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has said he will step down as leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic party in September, ending a three-year premiership and months of speculation over his ability to survive following a political funding scandal and rising living costs.

At a press conference on Wednesday, Kishida said he would not seek re-election at next month’s internal contest for the LDP’s presidency, which in effect grants the holder the position of Japanese prime minister.

“The first and clearest step to show that the LDP is changing is for me to step down,” said Kishida. “I will not be running in the upcoming presidential election.”

The decision follows months of low approval ratings and a political funding scandal that forced Kishida to sack four cabinet ministers last year.

Kishida, 67, came to power in October 2021 with a promise of establishing a “New Capitalism”. But approval ratings for his administration fell well below the 30 per cent level that has felled previous Japanese leaders.

The yen strengthened 0.3 per cent to ¥146.43 per dollar while equities were mixed. The country’s benchmark Topix index edged up 0.5 per cent while the more exporter-oriented Nikkei 225 shed 0.2 per cent.

Kishida’s successor will be Japan’s third prime minister since the late Shinzo Abe, who stepped down in 2020 and was the country’s longest-serving prime minister.

By pulling out of the LDP leadership race, Kishida opens the way for multiple candidates to compete for the position.

Speculation among political analysts has already centred on former trade minister Toshimitsu Motegi and former foreign minister Taro Kono. Kishida told reporters that “it is important to show a new face of the LDP in this leadership race”.

The LDP has not announced when the election will be held, but people close to the ruling party have said it is likely to be around September 20.

Additional reporting by William Sandlund in Hong Kong