Connect with us

News

I used to represent NY-3 in Congress. Here’s what today’s special election means.

Published

on

I used to represent NY-3 in Congress. Here’s what today’s special election means.

I represented the area for 16 years in Congress. Until recently, it was a sleepy, purple suburb, withdrawn from the frenzy of American politics. Most of my town meetings required the incentive of free bagels and coffee to attract a crowd. Ideological passions existed, but most voters were concerned about taxes and traffic on the Long Island Expressway. 

If you want a model of a suburban congressional district that both parties must win in November, look no further than New York’s 3rd Congressional District, on Long Island, where a special election today will replace the expelled George Santos.

In recent years, the district has been thrust into the political limelight. In 2022, it elected Santos, who lied, connived and contrived his way into Congress. If my former district should be rewarded for anything, it’s that we managed to elect a congressman who brought Republicans and Democrats together in a rare bipartisan act to kick him out. Now the special election to replace him occurs when the Speaker of the House has a razor-thin seven-vote majority. The national stakes couldn’t be higher for an electorate that yawns at national politics.

Having served as chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee for four years, I know firsthand that a six-week special election presents a herculean challenge for a candidate to raise money, build name recognition and develop the ground game required to win. And the two parties took radically different approaches to selecting their candidates.

Advertisement

The Democrats chose former Rep. Tom Suozzi, my successor in Congress, who decided to challenge Gov. Kathy Hochul in the primary in 2022 rather than running for reelection to the House. Normally, the rules of politics dictate that when you take on the leader of your party and lose, you’re finished. You can’t even run for precinct captain. But in a remarkable display of urgency by national Democrats to produce a well-funded, well-known candidate; an act of magnanimity by Gov. Hochul; and no deficit of brashness by Suozzi, he overcame this perceived disloyalty to get the nod.

Suozzi is, on paper at least, the perfect candidate for a condensed special election. He’s been in the public eye since the early 1990s. He was mayor of the city of Glen Cove, Nassau County Executive and a member of Congress. He jumpstarted the special election with high name recognition, proven fundraising and a political organization. 

Meanwhile, the GOP has selected Mazi Melesa Pilip, a virtual newcomer to politics with only two years of experience in the Nassau County Legislature. Pilip has an interesting story to tell voters, as a mother of seven originally born in Ethiopia and a veteran of the Israel Defense Forces. But unlike Suozzi, she’s unknown, untested and has made repeated comments that draw her knowledge of government into question. A recent Newsday editorial found that Pilip lacked awareness of basic government institutions in Nassau County and has been “accompanied at campaign events by a GOP party validator” who helps “to answer questions for her.”

As a result of Pilip’s inexperience, the GOP has strategically put her under wraps with minimal campaign appearances and few debates. Where Santos was a fabulist, Pilip seems to be a phantom. But the strategy may work. 

While the district historically favors Democrats, Republicans have consistently overperformed in recent cycles. Democrats have been winning handily in the suburbs in special elections lately, propelled by abortion and unease with the MAGA movement, but something is wrong on Long Island. President Biden won Nassau County by 10 points in 2020, but Gov. Hochul lost it by 10 points just two years later. 

Advertisement

What changed? The narrative propelling voter unease on Long Island is crime and immigration. The progressive Democratic message of several years ago to defund the police and institute cashless bail has roiled an electorate that values the orderliness of the suburbs and is home to many residents that commute to New York City for work. And recent headlines have been dominated by busloads of immigrants arriving in NYC. Republicans have pilloried Democrats on these issues, and now they’re hammering Suozzi with the same playbook.

In a debate in the 2022 gubernatorial primary, Suozzi mentioned that he “kicked ICE out of Nassau” when he was county executive. Republicans have pounced on the comment and tried to define Suozzi as an open-borders, sanctuary-city supporting liberal. He’s not, but as the political saying goes, “once you have to explain, don’t bother.” 

Suozzi’s response has been a combination of offense and defense. His campaign and the DCCC remind us that Pilip is running on a national party platform that will ban abortion. (Pilip says she is pro-life but not in favor of a national ban.) At the same time, my mailbox has been stuffed with reminders by the Suozzi campaign that he worked with Republicans to fix the border. One remarkable ad features a photograph of him with former Rep. Peter King, whose centrist politics veered further to the right on immigration and police issues, raising some Democrats’ eyebrows but likely reassuring many moderate voters.

In the end, this election will come down to turnout. It’s a challenge to get voters to the polls in a special election, especially one in the middle of February. The Democrats have an advantage in the air war (money, commercial time, resources and name recognition), but the Republicans are counting on a legendary turnout operation to win it on the ground.

When I speak to Republican leaders, they exude a Churchillian confidence about their turnout operation. Democrats, meanwhile, predict that Trump’s unpopularity, the shadow of George Santos and Republican extremism on abortion will propel moderate voters to reject the GOP.

Advertisement

No matter the result, Democrats and Republicans will race to parse the electoral tea leaves.

The problem with special elections is that they tend to produce more punditry than voters. Having seen my share of these elections while chair of the DCCC, I know that they detect overtures, not finales. While there is considerable scholarship to indicate some ability of special elections to serve as harbingers for upcoming elections, particularly if the district flips parties, the picture is not entirely clear.

Ultimately, the special election won’t reflect the overall national mood, but it will reveal the pulse in must-win suburban districts in November. And judging by recent polling showing Suozzi’s lead over Pilip being within the margin of error, it’s going to be close.

Steve Israel represented New York in the U.S. House of Representatives over eight terms and was chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee from 2011 to 2015. Follow him @RepSteveIsrael

Copyright 2024 Nexstar Media Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

Advertisement

News

Not a Deal-Breaker: White House Downplays Iranian Action Near the Strait

Published

on

Not a Deal-Breaker: White House Downplays Iranian Action Near the Strait

Just two weeks ago, President Trump threatened to wipe out Iran’s civilization if it did not open the Strait of Hormuz. Days later, he said any Iranian “who fires at us, or at peaceful vessels, will be BLOWN TO HELL!”

Yet on Wednesday, after Iran seized two ships near the Strait of Hormuz, the White House was quick to argue the action was not a deal breaker for potential peace negotiations.

“These were not U.S. ships,” Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, said on Fox News. “These were not Israeli ships.” Therefore, she explained, the Iranians had not violated a cease-fire with the United States that Mr. Trump has extended indefinitely.

She cautioned the news media against “blowing this out of proportion.”

The surprisingly tolerant tone from the White House suggests Mr. Trump is not eager to reignite a war that he started alongside Israel on Feb. 28 — a war that has proved unpopular with Americans and has gone on longer than he initially estimated.

Advertisement

The president on Tuesday extended a cease-fire between the United States and Iran that had been set to expire within hours, saying he wanted to give Tehran a chance to come up with a new proposal to end the war.

The American military has displayed its overwhelming might during the war, successfully striking thousands of targets. But it remains unclear whether Mr. Trump will accomplish the political objectives of the war.

The Iranian regime, even after its top leaders were killed, is still intact. Iran has not agreed to Mr. Trump’s demands to turn over its nuclear capabilities to the United States or significantly curtail them. And the Strait of Hormuz, a key passageway for world commerce that was open before the war, remains closed.

Nevertheless, the White House has repeatedly highlighted the military successes on the battlefield as evidence it is winning the war.

“We have completely confused and obliterated their regime,” Ms. Leavitt said on Fox Wednesday. “They are in a very weak position thanks to the actions taken by President Trump and our great United States armed forces, and so we will continue this important mission on our own.”

Advertisement

The oscillation between threats and a more conciliatory tone has long been one of Mr. Trump’s signature negotiating strategies.

Potential peace talks between the two countries are on hold. Vice President JD Vance had been poised to fly to Islamabad for negotiations. But the trip was postponed until Iran can “come up with a unified proposal,” Mr. Trump said.

The United States recently transmitted a written proposal to the Iranians intended to establish base-line points of agreement that could frame more detailed negotiations. The document covers a broad range of issues, but the core sticking points are the same ones that have bedeviled Western negotiators for more than a decade: the scope of Iran’s uranium enrichment program and the fate of its stockpile of enriched uranium.

Mr. Trump has not spoken publicly about the cease-fire, other than on social media. On Wednesday, he also posted about topics including “my Apprentice Juggernaut” — a reference to his former television show; the Virginia elections, which he called “rigged”; and a new book about Supreme Court Justice Samuel A. Alito Jr.

Advertisement
Continue Reading

News

Pentagon says Navy secretary is leaving, the latest departure of a top defense leader

Published

on

Pentagon says Navy secretary is leaving, the latest departure of a top defense leader

Secretary of the Navy John Phelan speaks, as President Trump listens, at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago club on Dec. 22 in Palm Beach, Fla.

Alex Brandon/AP


hide caption

toggle caption

Advertisement

Alex Brandon/AP

WASHINGTON — Navy Secretary John Phelan is leaving his job, the Pentagon abruptly announced Wednesday, the first head of a military service to depart during President Trump’s second term but just the latest top defense leader to step down or be ousted.

No reason was given for the unexpected departure of the Navy’s top civilian official, coming as the sea service has imposed a blockade of Iranian ports and is targeting ships linked to Tehran around the world during a tenuous ceasefire in the war. Another Trump loyalist is taking over as acting head of the Navy: Undersecretary Hung Cao, a 25-year Navy combat veteran who ran unsuccessful campaigns for the U.S. Senate and House in Virginia.

Phelan’s departure is the latest in a series of shakeups of top leadership at the Pentagon, coming just weeks after Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth fired the Army’s top uniformed officer, Gen. Randy George. Hegseth also has fired several other top generals, admirals and defense leaders since taking office last year.

Advertisement

The firings began in February 2025, when Hegseth removed military leaders, including Adm. Lisa Franchetti, the Navy’s top uniformed officer, and Gen. Jim Slife, the No. 2 leader at the Air Force. Trump also fired Gen. Charles “CQ” Brown Jr. as chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

Showing how sudden the latest move was, Phelan had addressed a large crowd of sailors and industry professionals on Tuesday at the Navy’s annual conference in Washington and spoke with reporters about his agenda. He also hosted the leaders of the House Armed Services Committee to discuss the Navy’s budget request and efforts to build more ships, according to a social media post from his office.

Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell said in a post on X that Phelan was “departing the administration, effective immediately.”

Phelan had been a major Trump donor

Phelan had not served in the military or had a civilian leadership role in the service before Trump nominated him for secretary in late 2024. He was seen as an outsider being brought in to shake up the Navy.

Hung Cao speaks during the Republican National Convention on July 16, 2024, in Milwaukee.

Hung Cao speaks during the Republican National Convention on July 16, 2024, in Milwaukee.

Matt Rourke/AP

Advertisement


hide caption

toggle caption

Matt Rourke/AP

Advertisement

Phelan was a major donor to Trump’s campaign and had founded the private investment firm Rugger Management LLC. According to his biography, Phelan’s primary exposure to the military came from an advisory position he held on the Spirit of America, a nonprofit that supported the defense of Ukraine and the defense of Taiwan.

The Associated Press could not immediately reach Phelan’s office for comment. The White House did not answer questions and instead responded by sending a link to Parnell’s statement.

Phelan is leaving during a busy time for the Navy. It has three aircraft carriers deployed in or heading to the Middle East, while the Trump administration says all the armed forces are poised to resume combat operations against Iran should the ceasefire expire.

The Navy also has maintained a heavy presence in the Caribbean, where it has been part of a campaign of strikes against alleged drug boats. It also played a major role in the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro in January.

New acting Navy secretary ran unsuccessful bids for Congress

Taking over as acting secretary is Cao, who ran a failed U.S. Senate bid in Virginia to try to unseat Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine in 2024. He had Trump’s endorsement in the crowded Republican primary and gave a speech at the 2024 Republican National Convention.

Advertisement

Cao’s biography includes fleeing Vietnam with his family as a child in the 1970s. In a campaign video for his Senate bid, he compared Vietnam’s communist regime during the Cold War to the administration of Democratic President Joe Biden.

During his one debate with Kaine, Cao criticized COVID-19 vaccine mandates for service members as well as the military’s diversity, equity and inclusion efforts.

“When you’re using a drag queen to recruit for the Navy, that’s not the people we want,” Cao said from the debate stage. “What we need is alpha males and alpha females who are going to rip out their own guts, eat them and ask for seconds. Those are the young men and women that are going to win wars.”

Trump and Hegseth have railed against DEI in the military, banning the efforts and firing people accused of supporting such programs.

When he ran for Congress in Virginia in 2022, Cao expressed opposition to aid for Ukraine during a debate against his Democratic opponent.

Advertisement

“My heart goes out to the Ukrainian people. … But right now we’re borrowing $55 billion from China to pay for the war in Ukraine. Not only that, we’re depleting our national strategic reserves,” Cao said.

Cao graduated from the prestigious Thomas Jefferson High School for Science and Technology in Alexandria, Virginia, before attending the U.S. Naval Academy.

He was commissioned as a special operations officer and went on to serve with SEAL teams and special forces in Iraq, Afghanistan and Somalia before retiring at the rank of captain, according to his Senate campaign biography.

Cao also earned a master’s degree in physics and had fellowships at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Harvard University.

Since becoming Navy undersecretary, Cao has championed returning to duty service members that refused a Biden-era mandate to take the COVID-19 vaccine.

Advertisement
Continue Reading

News

California Candidates to Appear in First Major Debate After Swalwell

Published

on

California Candidates to Appear in First Major Debate After Swalwell

Candidates in California’s volatile race for governor will meet Wednesday night for the first televised debate since Eric Swalwell dropped out, each looking to seize momentum in the tight contest.

The debate, being held at the television studio of KRON4 in San Francisco, will include four Democrats and two Republicans who are tightly bunched in recent polls, with many voters still undecided less than six weeks before the June 2 primary.

Mr. Swalwell, a Democrat, had just begun to emerge as a Democratic front-runner when his campaign swiftly collapsed after he was accused of sexual assault in news reports on April 10.

Candidates have taken relatively few risks so far in debates around the state, but every candidate is now eyeing a chance to jump to the front of the pack.

“Even though we have seen some movement in the last couple of weeks, it continues to be a fairly crowded, fractured field,” said Sara Sadhwani, an assistant professor of politics at Pomona College. “So candidates need to be able to grab attention in a debate like this.”

Advertisement

The debate comes as Xavier Becerra, a Democrat and former California attorney general, has enjoyed a surge of support in polls since Mr. Swalwell dropped out of the race.

Mr. Becerra and Matt Mahan, the mayor of San Jose, did not originally meet the threshold to participate in Wednesday’s debate when Mr. Swalwell was running. But they both qualified after receiving enough support in a follow-up poll that debate organizers commissioned once Mr. Swalwell had dropped out.

The other Democrats scheduled to participate are Tom Steyer, a former hedge fund manager, and Katie Porter, a former congresswoman, each of whom have been polling near the top of the Democratic field for several weeks. The Republicans in the debate are Steve Hilton, a former Fox News host who has been endorsed by President Trump, and Chad Bianco, the sheriff of Riverside County.

All candidates run on the same ballot in California’s nonpartisan primary, with the two who receive the most votes advancing to the general election, regardless of their party affiliation. The large number of Democratic candidates has created fear among state party leaders that their voters could splinter, potentially allowing two Republicans to sweep the primary in this heavily Democratic state.

The odds of that happening have decreased since Mr. Swalwell dropped out and another Democrat, Betty Yee, withdrew on Monday. But Rusty Hicks, the chairman of the California Democratic Party, still believes there are too many Democrats in the race and has urged those lagging in polls to end their campaigns. (The actual ballot will include 61 candidates for governor, most of whom are completely unknown to voters.)

Advertisement

The messy race to succeed Gov. Gavin Newsom, who cannot run for re-election because of term limits, has played out as the most unpredictable contest California has seen in a generation. It has attracted a sprawling field but no one with the star power of former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger or the political might of Mr. Newsom or former Gov. Jerry Brown.

Much of California’s Democratic establishment is still figuring out whom to back in the turbulent race.

Mr. Newsom has not endorsed anyone, saying he trusts voters to elect someone “who reflects the values and direction Californians believe in.” Representative Nancy Pelosi, the influential former House speaker from San Francisco, and Senator Alex Padilla also have not announced their favorites. Senator Adam Schiff endorsed Mr. Swalwell earlier this year but quickly withdrew his support after the accusations against him were published.

On Tuesday, Ms. Yee endorsed Mr. Steyer, praising his work to fight climate change and engage young voters. Mr. Steyer has swamped his competitors with a raft of advertising by pouring $134 million from his personal fortune into his campaign.

Also on Tuesday, Mr. Becerra, whose campaign had appeared to be flailing until Mr. Swalwell dropped out, received the endorsement of Robert Rivas, the Democratic speaker of the California State Assembly. Mr. Rivas said he had encouraged Mr. Becerra to run for governor because he was impressed by his work as California’s attorney general during President Trump’s first term.

Advertisement

“He understands both the policy and the politics,” Mr. Rivas said in an interview. “And he has a track record, in my opinion, of delivering results under pressure.”

The 90-minute debate on Wednesday begins at 7 p.m. PT and will be broadcast and streamed by KRON and other California stations.

Continue Reading
Advertisement

Trending