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Haley vs Trump: five things to watch in the New Hampshire primary

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Haley vs Trump: five things to watch in the New Hampshire primary

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Donald Trump dominated last week’s Iowa caucuses. Now he hopes to carry the momentum into Tuesday’s Republican primary vote in New Hampshire, the next — and potentially decisive — stage in the race for the party’s presidential nomination.

New Hampshire voters tend to be more centrist than the more conservative, evangelical Christian Republican voters in Iowa. Independent voters can also decide whether to vote in the Republican or Democratic primary in New Hampshire. This has raised Nikki Haley’s hopes that she could spring a surprise victory on Trump.

Up for grabs in the New Hampshire Republican primary are 22 delegate votes, awarded in proportion to Tuesday’s tally, for the party’s national convention in July — when 1,215 will be needed to win the official nomination. Trump’s win in Iowa on Monday has already handed him 20 votes.

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Meanwhile, the Democratic primary will be much less consequential for 2024, but could still tell us something about President Joe Biden’s popularity within his own party.

Here are five things to watch in New Hampshire’s primary polls on Tuesday.

Can Haley beat Trump?

Haley is betting it all on New Hampshire after a disappointing third-place finish in Iowa behind Trump and Florida governor Ron DeSantis. The former US ambassador to the UN is betting that a coalition of more centrist Republicans and independents will get behind her as an alternative to Trump — and that a victory in New Hampshire will give her momentum ahead of the race’s next primary contest, in her home state of South Carolina on February 24.

But Trump still has a loyal base in New Hampshire, and Haley will need to vastly over-perform opinion polls if she is going to be able to pull off a victory there. The latest FiveThirtyEight average shows Trump in a comfortable lead, at 48 per cent, with Haley trailing in second at 34 per cent, and Florida governor Ron DeSantis in a distant third place, at about 5 per cent.

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What will happen to DeSantis?

DeSantis put nearly all of his campaign’s time, money and energy into Iowa, and invested much less in New Hampshire. So it is little surprise that he is polling so poorly in the New England state.

DeSantis has held a handful of campaign events in New Hampshire in recent days, but now appears more focused on South Carolina, where the overwhelmingly conservative, Christian electorate looks more like Iowa — and should be more favourable to a candidate who has taken a hard line on abortion, trans rights and other cultural issues.

DeSantis has said he can beat Haley in her home state. But his campaign has been dogged with problems and it remains unclear whether he has the funds or polling momentum to keep running until the South Carolina contest in late February.

Will anybody drop out?

Haley and DeSantis both insist that they are in the race until at least Super Tuesday, on March 5, when more than a dozen states will hold Republican primaries.

But a weak performance in New Hampshire would inevitably bring pressure for them to drop out.

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Billionaire donor Ken Langone told the Financial Times last week he was prepared to give Haley “a nice sum of money” but may wait until after Tuesday’s primary ballot before making the “major gift”. “If she doesn’t get traction in New Hampshire, you don’t throw money down a rat hole,” he said.

Haley received another blow on Friday, when Tim Scott, the South Carolina lawmaker she appointed to the US Senate in 2013, threw his weight behind Trump, who enjoys almost 60 per cent backing among Republicans in the latest opinion polls in Haley’s home state.

What will independent voters do?

A plurality of the New Hampshire electorate is undeclared, or independent, and unaffiliated with either main political party. The Republican primary there on Tuesday will be an “open primary”, meaning registered Republicans and independents who decide to vote will be able to cast a ballot.

How many independent voters turn out — and who they vote for — may give an indication of the direction political winds are blowing heading into November’s general election.

Unlike Iowa, which has trended Republican in recent election cycles, New Hampshire is a swing state, and Republicans and Democrats will be poring over voter patterns on Tuesday for hints of how the parties might fare there in the autumn.

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What will happen in the Democratic primary?

The Democratic National Committee wanted to strip New Hampshire of its “first in the nation” status and hold the party’s first primary of the year in South Carolina, rather than New Hampshire. Local Democrats were not impressed.

The state pushed back and will nevertheless hold a primary on Tuesday, even though Joe Biden, the Democratic incumbent president and the party’s likely nominee, will not be on the ballot.

The Biden campaign has encouraged New Hampshire Democrats and independents to “write in” Biden — meaning, as it sounds, simply to write the president’s name on the ballot — given he faces a long-shot challenge from Dean Phillips, a Minnesota congressman who is running for the nomination and says his party needs a younger candidate.

The results in the primary are highly unlikely to trouble Biden’s official nomination at the party’s national convention in August. But the outcome on Tuesday might offer a barometer of his grassroots support in a critical swing state.

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Map: 4.9-Magnitude Earthquake Shakes Louisiana

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Map: 4.9-Magnitude Earthquake Shakes Louisiana

Note: Map shows the area with a shake intensity of 4 or greater, which U.S.G.S. defines as “light,” though the earthquake may be felt outside the areas shown.  All times on the map are Central time. The New York Times

A light, 4.9-magnitude earthquake struck in Louisiana on Thursday, according to the United States Geological Survey.

The temblor happened at 5:30 a.m. Central time about 6 miles west of Edgefield, La., data from the agency shows.

U.S.G.S. data earlier reported that the magnitude was 4.4.

As seismologists review available data, they may revise the earthquake’s reported magnitude. Additional information collected about the earthquake may also prompt U.S.G.S. scientists to update the shake-severity map.

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Source: United States Geological Survey | Notes: Shaking categories are based on the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale. When aftershock data is available, the corresponding maps and charts include earthquakes within 100 miles and seven days of the initial quake. All times above are Central time. Shake data is as of Thursday, March 5 at 8:40 a.m. Eastern. Aftershocks data is as of Thursday, March 5 at 10:46 a.m. Eastern.

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Donald Trump has no ‘phase two’ plan for Iran war, says US senator

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Donald Trump has no ‘phase two’ plan for Iran war, says US senator

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Man accused of plot to assassinate Trump testifies Iran pressured him, says Biden and Haley were other possible targets

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Man accused of plot to assassinate Trump testifies Iran pressured him, says Biden and Haley were other possible targets

The allegation sounded like the stuff of spy movies: A Pakistani businessman trying to hire hit men, even handing them $5,000 in cash, to kill a U.S. politician on behalf of Iran ‘s powerful paramilitary Revolutionary Guard.

It was true, and potential targets of the 2024 scheme included now-President Donald Trump, then-President Joe Biden and former presidential candidate and ex-U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, the man told jurors at his attempted terrorism trial in New York on Wednesday. But he insisted his actions were driven by fear for loved ones in Iran, and he figured he’d be apprehended before anything came of the scheme.

“My family was under threat, and I had to do this,” the defendant, Asif Merchant, testified through an Urdu interpreter. “I was not wanting to do this so willingly.”

Merchant said he had anticipated getting arrested before anyone was killed, intended to cooperate with the U.S. government and had hoped that would help him get a green card.

U.S. authorities were, indeed, on to him – the supposed hit men he paid were actually undercover FBI agents – and he was arrested on July 12, 2024, a day before an unrelated attempt on Trump’s life in Butler, Pennsylvania.  During a search, investigators said they found a handwritten note that contained the codewords for the various aspects of the plot, CBS News previously reported

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Merchant did sit for voluntary FBI interviews, but he ultimately ended up with a trial, not a cooperation deal.

“You traveled to the United States for the purpose of hiring Mafia members to kill a politician, correct?” Assistant U.S. Attorney Nina Gupta asked during her turn questioning Merchant Wednesday in a Brooklyn federal court.

“That’s right,” Merchant replied, his demeanor as matter-of-fact as his testimony was unusual.

The trial is unfolding amid the less than week-old Iran war, which killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in a strike that Trump summed up as “I got him before he got me.” Jurors are instructed to ignore news pertaining to the case.

The Iranian government has denied plotting to kill Trump or other U.S. officials.

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Merchant, 47, had a roughly 20-year banking career in Pakistan before getting involved in an array of businesses: clothing, car sales, banana exports, insulation imports. He openly has two families, one in Pakistan and the other in Iran – where, he said, he was introduced around the end of 2022 to a Revolutionary Guard intelligence operative. They initially spoke about getting involved in a hawala, an informal money transfer system, Merchant said.

Merchant testified that his periodic visits to the U.S. for his garment business piqued the interest of his Revolutionary Guard contact, who trained him on countersurveillance techniques.

The U.S. deems the Revolutionary Guard a “foreign terrorist organization.” Formally called the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the force has been prominent in Iran under Khamenei.

Merchant said the handler told him to seek U.S. residents interested in working for Iran. Then came another assignment: Look for a criminal to arrange protests, steal things, do some money laundering, “and maybe have somebody murdered,” Merchant recalled.

“He did not tell me exactly who it is, but he told me – he named three people: Donald Trump, Joe Biden and Nikki Haley,” he added.

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In 2024, multiple sources familiar with the investigation told CBS News Merchant planned to assassinate current and former government officials across the political spectrum.

Merchant allegedly sketched out the plot on a napkin inside his New York hotel room, prosecutors said, and told the individual “that there would be ‘security all around’ the person” they were planning to kill.

“No other option”

After U.S. immigration agents pulled Merchant aside at the Houston airport in April 2024, searched his possessions and asked about his travels to Iran, he concluded that he was under surveillance. But still he researched Trump rally locations, sketched out a plot for a shooting at a political rally, lined up the supposed hit men and scrambled together $5,000 from a cousin to pay them a “token of appreciation.”

This image provided by the Justice Department, contained in the complaint supporting the arrest warrant, shows Asif Merchant. 

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AP


He even reported back to his Revolutionary Guard contact, sending observations – fake, Merchant said – tucked into a book that he shipped to Iran through a series of intermediaries.

Merchant said he “had no other option” than to play along because the handler had indicated that he knew who Merchant’s Iranian relatives were and where they lived.

In a court filing this week, prosecutors noted that Merchant didn’t seek out law enforcement to help with his purported predicament before he was arrested. He testified that he couldn’t turn to authorities because his handler had people watching him.

Prosecutors also said that in his FBI interviews, Merchant “neglected to mention any facts that could have supported” an argument that he acted under duress.

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Merchant told jurors Wednesday that he didn’t think agents would believe his story, because their questions suggested “they think that I’m some type of super-spy.”

“And are you a super-spy?” defense lawyer Avraham Moskowitz asked.

“No,” Merchant said. “Absolutely not.”

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