Germany’s Friedrich Merz promised to “achieve independence” from the US after his centre-right bloc won federal elections, putting him at the head of a potentially complex coalition during a time of upheaval for Europe.
In an election where Germany shifted to the right, Merz’s Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) came first with 28.6 per cent of the vote on Sunday, leaving it in need of at least one other coalition partner to secure a working parliamentary majority.
Germany’s far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) came second, with its highest ever vote share of about 21 per cent.
Within hours of polls closing, Merz declared that Germany had to fundamentally remake its security arrangements and end a decades-long reliance on Washington, given that US President Donald Trump was “largely indifferent” to Europe’s fate.
Merz said: “I am in close contact with many prime ministers — heads of government of the EU. And it must be an absolute priority to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that, step by step, we actually achieve independence from the USA.
“I wouldn’t have thought I’d have to say something like that . . . But after Donald Trump’s statements, it is clear that the Americans, at least this American government, are largely indifferent to the fate of Europe.”
Merz, who said he was unsure about the future of Nato, also highlighted Washington’s interventions in the German election campaign, and compared it to Russian interference.
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The Trump administration has openly courted the AfD and has criticised Germany’s mainstream politicians for refusing to co-operate with a party that has flirted with Nazi-era slogans, urged an end to sanctions on Russia and called for mass deportations of migrants.
Trump in recent weeks has blindsided Europe by holding direct talks with Russia over ending the war in Ukraine and has threatened to pull US security guarantees from the continent. Germany hosts the largest contingent of American troops stationed in Europe.
Trump earlier on Sunday described the election result as proof that “the people of Germany got tired of the no common sense agenda, especially on energy and immigration, that has prevailed for so many years”.
Merz has little option but to form a coalition with outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic party, which won a little over 16 per cent of the votes — its worst result since 1887.
But on Sunday night, it remained unclear whether Merz could negotiate a ruling majority strong enough to drive through fundamental reforms, including revisions to a constitutionally enshrined limit on public borrowing.
“I know the scale of the challenge that lies ahead of us,” Merz said. “I approach this with the greatest respect. And I know that it will not be easy.”
“We had a hard campaign but now we will talk to each other,” Merz said, adding it might be even more difficult to form a coalition than he had expected during the election campaign.
His political calculations were complicated by the fact that Merz’s traditional partner, the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP), was on course to fall short of the 5 per cent threshold to enter the Bundestag.
Voter turnout reached its highest since German reunification in 1990, according to exit poll data, at a level of 84 per cent.
The preliminary results mark a big swing to the right in Germany after a series of deadly attacks by migrants fuelled anti-immigrant sentiment.
German voters shunned Scholz’s unpopular coalition with the Greens and the FDP. The Eurozone’s largest economy has stagnated for the past two years as German industry grappled with high energy prices and Chinese competition.
Scholz indicated he would step back from frontline politics after “a bitter result”.
Alice Weidel, the AfD co-leader, celebrated the party almost doubling its vote share from 2021, to secure the biggest far-right gains in Germany since the second world war.
“We have led a magnificent campaign,” Weidel said, as she stressed her party was open to coalition talks with the CDU/CSU to meet “the will of the people”.
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After witnessing three years of infighting among top members of Scholz’s fractious coalition, strategists from the CDU and its Bavarian sister party the CSU wanted to avoid needing more than one partner to form a government.
In one potentially helpful outcome for Merz, the far-left Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) looked to have fallen just short of securing seats in parliament, which would have made it impossible for the CDU/CSU to build a working majority with just the SPD.
Under the German electoral system, parties winning less than 5 per cent of the vote are excluded from parliament and their votes are redistributed, strengthening the successful groups.
The next parliament is set to contain five parties, including the Greens, AfD and the far-left Die Linke.
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Holger Schmieding, economist at Berenberg Bank, warned of a “serious risk” that fringe parties might be strong enough to block changes to the German constitution.
“If so, they could veto any loosening of the debt brake enshrined in the constitution”, while it was “crucial to raise spending for the military and Ukraine and ease the tax burden for workers and firms”, he added.
Data visualisation by Martin Stabe and Jonathan Vincent
