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Friday snow trending north; potentially plowable for Twin Cities

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Friday snow trending north; potentially plowable for Twin Cities

Here we go.

I wrote earlier today about heavy snowfall for parts of the North Shore. Winter storm warnings continue there into Thursday. Now southern Minnesota is the place with heavy snow potential by Friday.

Wednesday afternoon’s forecast models have made a distinct northward shift in Friday’s major storm center that will track south of Minnesota. The latest forecast model trends suggest significant snow could move as far north as the Twin Cities on Friday.

A winter storm watch was posted Wednesday afternoon includes most of southeast Minnesota. It currently comes as close to the Twin Cities as Red Wing as of Wednesday early evening.

URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service La Crosse, WI

2:28 p.m. CST Wednesday, Jan. 10, 2024

Significant winter storm taking aim at the region

A powerful winter system impacts the region from late Thursday night into Saturday, bringing with it widespread accumulating snow and strong winds. The greatest impacts from falling snow would be during the day on Friday, with strong winds persisting Friday night into Saturday resulting in continued blowing snow and near whiteout conditions. A widespread 6 to 10 inches of snow is forecast, but these amounts could still change based on refinements to the storm track. Bitterly cold air arrives on the heels of this storm with wind chills of 20 to 30 below zero by Saturday night.

If current forecast model trends hold the watch zone could be expanded closer to or into the Twin Cities area on Wednesday night or Thursday.

Winter storm watch zone. I’ve indicated a possible expansion zone in red if northward forecast model trends continue.

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Twin Cities National Weather Service

The system

Friday’s inbound storm is the second major low-pressure system to cross the Midwest this week. The first system dumped up to 15 inches of snow in eastern Iowa. This system has the potential to drop more than a foot of fresh snow in parts of Iowa, Wisconsin and the Chicagoland area.

NOAA’s afternoon (18Z) NAM 3 km forecast model run shows the northward shift and likely bigger snow zone across Minnesota. You can see the loop at the top of this post, but here’s another look. Note the heaviest snowfall bands (darker) across Iowa and southeast Minnesota.

NOAA NAM 3 km model 4

NOAA NAM 3 km model between 6 p.m. Thursday and midnight Saturday.

NOAA via tropical tidbits

Snowfall totals

Forecast models are cranking out some impressive snowfall totals across Iowa through Chicago into Michigan. Check out this GFS Kuchera output. It cranks out a foot of snow from parts of Iowa through Chicago into Michigan. The GFS suggests around 4 to 5 inches for the Twin Cities area.

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NOAA GFS snowfall output

NOAA GFS snowfall output through Saturday.

NOAA via pivotal weather

Now look at NOAA’s NAM model. It pushes heavier snowfall up to a foot northward into parts of southern Minnesota. It cranks out an impressive 8 to 9 inches for the Twin Cities.

NOAA NAM 3km model snowfall

NOAA NAM 3km model snowfall through Friday.

NOAA via pivotal weather

It’s still too early for high confidence about eventual snowfall totals, especially in the Twin Cities near the northern part of the system.

But it’s beginning to look like very plowable, wind-driven snow is more likely late Thursday night through Friday.

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Stay tuned.

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Map: 4.9-Magnitude Earthquake Shakes Louisiana

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Map: 4.9-Magnitude Earthquake Shakes Louisiana

Note: Map shows the area with a shake intensity of 4 or greater, which U.S.G.S. defines as “light,” though the earthquake may be felt outside the areas shown.  All times on the map are Central time. The New York Times

A light, 4.9-magnitude earthquake struck in Louisiana on Thursday, according to the United States Geological Survey.

The temblor happened at 5:30 a.m. Central time about 6 miles west of Edgefield, La., data from the agency shows.

U.S.G.S. data earlier reported that the magnitude was 4.4.

As seismologists review available data, they may revise the earthquake’s reported magnitude. Additional information collected about the earthquake may also prompt U.S.G.S. scientists to update the shake-severity map.

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Source: United States Geological Survey | Notes: Shaking categories are based on the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale. When aftershock data is available, the corresponding maps and charts include earthquakes within 100 miles and seven days of the initial quake. All times above are Central time. Shake data is as of Thursday, March 5 at 8:40 a.m. Eastern. Aftershocks data is as of Thursday, March 5 at 10:46 a.m. Eastern.

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Donald Trump has no ‘phase two’ plan for Iran war, says US senator

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Donald Trump has no ‘phase two’ plan for Iran war, says US senator

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Man accused of plot to assassinate Trump testifies Iran pressured him, says Biden and Haley were other possible targets

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Man accused of plot to assassinate Trump testifies Iran pressured him, says Biden and Haley were other possible targets

The allegation sounded like the stuff of spy movies: A Pakistani businessman trying to hire hit men, even handing them $5,000 in cash, to kill a U.S. politician on behalf of Iran ‘s powerful paramilitary Revolutionary Guard.

It was true, and potential targets of the 2024 scheme included now-President Donald Trump, then-President Joe Biden and former presidential candidate and ex-U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, the man told jurors at his attempted terrorism trial in New York on Wednesday. But he insisted his actions were driven by fear for loved ones in Iran, and he figured he’d be apprehended before anything came of the scheme.

“My family was under threat, and I had to do this,” the defendant, Asif Merchant, testified through an Urdu interpreter. “I was not wanting to do this so willingly.”

Merchant said he had anticipated getting arrested before anyone was killed, intended to cooperate with the U.S. government and had hoped that would help him get a green card.

U.S. authorities were, indeed, on to him – the supposed hit men he paid were actually undercover FBI agents – and he was arrested on July 12, 2024, a day before an unrelated attempt on Trump’s life in Butler, Pennsylvania.  During a search, investigators said they found a handwritten note that contained the codewords for the various aspects of the plot, CBS News previously reported

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Merchant did sit for voluntary FBI interviews, but he ultimately ended up with a trial, not a cooperation deal.

“You traveled to the United States for the purpose of hiring Mafia members to kill a politician, correct?” Assistant U.S. Attorney Nina Gupta asked during her turn questioning Merchant Wednesday in a Brooklyn federal court.

“That’s right,” Merchant replied, his demeanor as matter-of-fact as his testimony was unusual.

The trial is unfolding amid the less than week-old Iran war, which killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in a strike that Trump summed up as “I got him before he got me.” Jurors are instructed to ignore news pertaining to the case.

The Iranian government has denied plotting to kill Trump or other U.S. officials.

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Merchant, 47, had a roughly 20-year banking career in Pakistan before getting involved in an array of businesses: clothing, car sales, banana exports, insulation imports. He openly has two families, one in Pakistan and the other in Iran – where, he said, he was introduced around the end of 2022 to a Revolutionary Guard intelligence operative. They initially spoke about getting involved in a hawala, an informal money transfer system, Merchant said.

Merchant testified that his periodic visits to the U.S. for his garment business piqued the interest of his Revolutionary Guard contact, who trained him on countersurveillance techniques.

The U.S. deems the Revolutionary Guard a “foreign terrorist organization.” Formally called the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the force has been prominent in Iran under Khamenei.

Merchant said the handler told him to seek U.S. residents interested in working for Iran. Then came another assignment: Look for a criminal to arrange protests, steal things, do some money laundering, “and maybe have somebody murdered,” Merchant recalled.

“He did not tell me exactly who it is, but he told me – he named three people: Donald Trump, Joe Biden and Nikki Haley,” he added.

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In 2024, multiple sources familiar with the investigation told CBS News Merchant planned to assassinate current and former government officials across the political spectrum.

Merchant allegedly sketched out the plot on a napkin inside his New York hotel room, prosecutors said, and told the individual “that there would be ‘security all around’ the person” they were planning to kill.

“No other option”

After U.S. immigration agents pulled Merchant aside at the Houston airport in April 2024, searched his possessions and asked about his travels to Iran, he concluded that he was under surveillance. But still he researched Trump rally locations, sketched out a plot for a shooting at a political rally, lined up the supposed hit men and scrambled together $5,000 from a cousin to pay them a “token of appreciation.”

This image provided by the Justice Department, contained in the complaint supporting the arrest warrant, shows Asif Merchant. 

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AP


He even reported back to his Revolutionary Guard contact, sending observations – fake, Merchant said – tucked into a book that he shipped to Iran through a series of intermediaries.

Merchant said he “had no other option” than to play along because the handler had indicated that he knew who Merchant’s Iranian relatives were and where they lived.

In a court filing this week, prosecutors noted that Merchant didn’t seek out law enforcement to help with his purported predicament before he was arrested. He testified that he couldn’t turn to authorities because his handler had people watching him.

Prosecutors also said that in his FBI interviews, Merchant “neglected to mention any facts that could have supported” an argument that he acted under duress.

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Merchant told jurors Wednesday that he didn’t think agents would believe his story, because their questions suggested “they think that I’m some type of super-spy.”

“And are you a super-spy?” defense lawyer Avraham Moskowitz asked.

“No,” Merchant said. “Absolutely not.”

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