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Chinese stocks volatile after Beijing lays out fiscal plans

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Chinese stocks volatile after Beijing lays out fiscal plans

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Chinese stocks were volatile on Monday after Beijing sought to reassure investors over the weekend about its plan to increase spending to boost the world’s second-largest economy.

The finance ministry on Saturday said it planned to recapitalise local governments and state banks and buy unsold property as part of its stimulus plans but held back from providing detailed figures.

Chinese investors, who kicked off a record stock market rally in late September after Beijing announced monetary stimulus, are waiting for the government to reveal its planned fiscal expenditure.

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On Monday, mainland China’s CSI 300 benchmark was up 1.52 per cent by the noon break in volatile trade, with high-tech manufacturing groups such as Cambricon Technologies, CATL and BYD among those driving gains in the index.

But markets in Hong Kong declined slightly, with the benchmark Hang Seng index down 0.4 per cent while a sub-index of Chinese companies listed in the territory dropped 0.22 per cent.

“Market opinions clearly diverged after the Ministry of Finance briefing,” said Zhang Qi, analyst with Haitong Securities. But he said some investors were starting to venture back into the market after the rally faltered last week on uncertainty over the government’s stimulus plans.

Economists in the cautious camp said the finance ministry’s programmes would help provide a basis for a recovery, but they would need to see the details, including how much the government planned to spend and the programmes’ terms.

Others were more positive, believing that the government would make good on its promises in important meetings planned for the coming weeks, such as a session of the standing committee of the rubber-stamp parliament, the National People’s Congress, which can approve new government bond issuance.

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Beijing has launched multiple incremental schemes over the past three years since the property sector collapsed, but none have managed to stabilise a deep fall in prices that is hitting household sentiment.

On Thursday, the People’s Bank of China began implementing a scheme to enable domestic financial companies to buy more stocks, the first central bank tool of its kind to shore up stock market liquidity.

The announcement of the tool in late September ignited a market rally that sent stock prices up more than 30 per cent before it cooled off last week.

The finance ministry briefing was followed by data on Sunday showing that deflationary pressures remained strong, one of the chief concerns for economists.

The weekend briefing sent mixed signals, said Winnie Wu, chief China equity strategist at the Bank of America Securities on Monday, and the market was now in “long-term greedy and short-term cautious” mode.

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“While some investors may be disappointed, it seems to us that the policy pivoting point has occurred,” said Wu. “We should see continued policy momentum in the coming weeks, and potentially more fiscal stimulus and structural reforms in 2025.”

But Goldman Sachs economists said the finance ministry’s suggestion that it might spend Rmb2.3tn ($325bn) from previously approved bonds in the final quarter were positive for economic growth.

This led Goldman to upgrade its forecast for China’s economic growth this year to 4.9 per cent from 4.7 per cent, close to Beijing’s official 5 per cent target.

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Video: Harris Rallies in North Carolina

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Video: Harris Rallies in North Carolina

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Harris Rallies in North Carolina

The vice president criticized former President Donald J. Trump, calling him “weak and unstable.”

He is only focused on himself. And he’s not — But here’s the thing, North Carolina — and he’s not being transparent with the voters. He’s not being transparent. So check this out. He refuses to release his medical records. I’ve done it. Every other presidential camp — every other presidential candidate in modern era has done it. He is unwilling to do a “60 Minutes” interview, like every other major-party candidate has done for more than half a century. He is unwilling to meet for a second debate. And here’s the thing. Here’s the thing. It makes you wonder. It makes you wonder why does his staff want him to hide away? One must question. One must question. Are they afraid that people will see that he is too weak and unstable? To lead America.

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Man with guns arrested near Trump rally in Coachella, sheriff says

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Man with guns arrested near Trump rally in Coachella, sheriff says

Sheriff deputies found a shotgun, a loaded handgun and a high-capacity magazine inside the car of 49-year-old Vem Miller.

Alex Brandon/AP/AP


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Alex Brandon/AP/AP

A man is in custody after deputies found guns in his car near the rally site of former President Donald Trump in Coachella, Calif., on Saturday, according to Riverside County Sheriff’s deputies.

The man was identified as Vem Miller, 49, of Las Vegas.

Sheriff’s deputies stopped Miller at an interior check-point in Coachella, near the rally, and found he was illegally in possession of a shotgun, a loaded handgun and a high-capacity magazine. He also had numerous passports and drivers licenses under different names and his SUV had fake plates, Sheriff Chad Bianco said at a Sunday news conference.

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Bianco described Miller as a “lunatic” and member of Sovereign Citizens.

“They are certainly considered a far-right group,” Bianco said. “I wouldn’t say it’s a militant group. It’s just a group that doesn’t believe in government and government control.”

Nevada records show Miller is a registered Republican.

Miller also told the deputies at the checkpoint that he was a journalist and had a pass to attend the rally, Bianco said during a news conference Sunday.

Miller was booked into the John J. Benoit Detention Center on the state weapons counts and later released. He was given a court date to appear.

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It is unclear if he faces any federal charges. Bianco said the FBI and Secret Service are investigating any possible threat to Trump and would handle that part of the case.

The sheriff’s department said the stop and arrest happened before Trump arrived at the venue.

Security has been heightened at Trump campaign events following two attempted assassinations. The first, at a July rally in Pennsylvania, left the former president grazed by a bullet and a rally supporter killed. The gunman was killed by a sniper.

In the second, Secret Service agents saw a man hiding in bushes at Trump’s West Palm Beach resort where he was playing golf. They later found an AK-style rifle and scope. The man is in federal custody.

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Inside Israel’s push into the undergrowth of southern Lebanon

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Inside Israel’s push into the undergrowth of southern Lebanon

From the vantage of a hilltop inside southern Lebanon, it is clear the terrain of Israel’s land war has moved from the urban ruins of Gaza to a tangle of dense undergrowth.

Brush and thick green forests stretch across steep hillsides, marking a front considered more rugged than areas farther east where Israeli troops have engaged Hizbollah fighters in Lebanese border villages.

The Israel Defense Forces took a group of journalists into Lebanon on Sunday, showing them arid woodland paths and outcrops where Israeli officers said the militant group Hizbollah has established forward operating bases.

The tunnels, bunkers and weapons caches gradually uncovered over the past fortnight were, Israel claims, part of preparations for a potential cross-border assault.

To counter the threat, Israel has billed its invasion force, consisting of some four divisions and an estimated 20,000 troops, backed by one of the most fierce air campaigns mounted beyond its borders, as a “limited and precise” offensive into Lebanon.

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But its forces are now moving across a sprawling, harsh terrain that has wrongfooted generations of Israeli soldiers, whose pushes into Lebanon have a history of flawed tactics and long occupations.

Israeli troops photographed during a controlled embedded tour organised by the Israeli military in southern Lebanon’s Naqoura region near the border with Israel © Neri Zilber/FT

“Undergrowth war is more complex than urban fighting. It has no logic and you can’t take shortcuts,” said Brigadier General Yitzhak Norkin, the commander of the IDF’s 146th Division, responsible for the far-western sector of the offensive.

Despite Israel’s insistence that this operation is limited, the UN estimates that nearly a quarter of Lebanon’s territory is under an evacuation order from the Israeli military. Israel has told about 140 communities in south Lebanon to flee their homes since October 1, ordering residents to move north of the Awali river, which runs at least 80km north of the southern tip of Lebanon.

Norkin said Israel’s goal was to remove Hizbollah’s capacity to threaten Israel and allow 60,000 Israelis to return to their homes, after being evacuated when the Lebanese movement began firing on northern Israel a day after Hamas’s October 7 attack.

So far Norkin’s division, the IDF’s largest and made up solely of reservists, has not entered the Lebanese villages farther northward. Since it joined the invasion force last week, he said, the focus has been on “cleaning” this small strip of land tucked a few hundred metres inside a massive Israeli-built border wall.

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 Israeli soldiers inspect a Hezbollah attacking position tunnel found during the operation according to the army troops during an the IDF embedded media tour to the Southern Lebanon
Israeli soldiers inspect a Hizbollah attacking-position tunnel found during their operation, according to army troops during the IDF embedded media tour © Amir Levy/Getty Images
 Israeli soldiers inspect a Hezbollah attacking position tunnel found during the operation according to the army troops during an a IDF embedded media tour to the Southern Lebanon
© Ilia Yefimovich/Dpa

In one square kilometre, Israeli officers said, the IDF battalion operating in the area had found around 100 Hizbollah military positions, including a tunnel 10 meters deep and 50 meters wide with firing positions for mortars and anti-tank guided missiles. Another weapons cache was filled with army kit, small arms, mines and explosive devices.

“You can’t take a step [in this area] without coming across Hizbollah [military] infrastructure,” said Ariel, an IDF officer in the division. “And without forces physically on the ground you can’t clear out this area from this . . . infrastructure because of the tunnels and the forests.”

Multiple Israeli officers were incredulous that the UN peacekeepers in the area, some in a base located less than 200 meters from a Hizbollah tunnel, had not detected the extensive building project.

Unifil has also come under fire from Hizbollah in the past. In 2022, an Irish peacekeeper was killed and another seriously injured when their armoured patrol car was attacked in a Hizbollah-controlled area.

Senior Israeli officials have said over the past two weeks that the peacekeepers are “not the enemy” and have only “suggested” they leave southern Lebanon. However, several international troops in this sector have recently been injured by Israeli fire. Norkin called them regrettable “mistakes”, while also blaming one incident on Hizbollah.

Over the past year, Israel’s offensive against Hizbollah has killed more than 2,000 people and forced some 1.2mn from their homes, mostly over the past three weeks. On the Israeli side, over 50 people have been killed by incoming Hizbollah fire since the start of the war, in addition to 10 Israeli soldiers since the launch of the ground incursion earlier this month.

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Israeli Defense Forces patrolling in the southern Lebanese village of Naqoura
An IDF soldier patrols in the southern Lebanese village of Naqoura © Ilia Yefimovich/Dpa

From inside southern Lebanon, Israeli artillery thuds in the distance and the growl of fighter jets above were an incessant reminder that this was an active war zone. And Israeli forces have taken incoming mortar and drone attacks themselves from Hizbollah.

Yet the militants had mostly retreated northward to the village line ahead of the Israeli incursion, ceding the area to the IDF, according to Israeli officers. Norkin admitted no “face-to-face” combat had broken out yet with Hizbollah fighters in the area.

Instead, Norkin said “slow and meticulous” progress had been made, given the need to keep his troops safe and the time needed to find and eliminate what they say are hundreds more Hizbollah positions in this sector alone.

Inside one thicket of baby oak trees, along a path originally cut by Hizbollah but widened more recently by the IDF, little was visible either from above or in a 360 degree turn.

“The enemy can be standing 5 metres from you and you won’t know it,” said one veteran Israeli reservist, clutching his assault rifle.

If this specific sector of the IDF’s offensive is any indication, the Israeli ground offensive in Lebanon will be measured in weeks and months rather than days. Norkin fought in the last Israel-Hizbollah war in 2006 as a young tank commander. That conflict lasted for over a month, and ended with the Middle East’s most powerful military bogged down in a stalemate. Yet this time, he said, was very different.

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Israeli troops patrolling near a United Nations Interim Force In Lebanon (UNIFIL) base in the southern Lebanon’s Naqoura region near the border.
Israeli troops patrol near a Unifil base in the Naqoura region © Menahem Kahana/AFP/Getty Images

“Now [during this offensive] we are getting into much more complicated areas — the forests, the bushes. In 2006 we didn’t do it. We went around these areas. We didn’t fight here,” Norkin said, pointing around at the area his forces now held, with armoured personnel carriers, tanks and infantry kicking up dust clouds on the rocky access roads.

Later on he admitted that the sheer scale of southern Lebanon — “a huge territory” — would make it difficult to “destroy everything” Hizbollah had built.

The group, the region’s most heavily armed non-state actor, has controlled southern Lebanon since Israel ended its occupation in 2000. It is also Lebanon’s dominant political force and deeply embedded in the social fabric of the country’s south.

There is already talk at the top levels of the Israeli military and political leadership about a diplomatic arrangement that would, like previous UN Security Council resolutions, call for Hizbollah to withdraw from the border region, which would be demilitarised save for international peacekeepers and the Lebanese army. Yet prior agreements have not been implemented by either side.

It is an open question whether even Israeli officials believe such an arrangement will meet their objectives and provide real security. Nor, many Lebanese wonder, will it arrive soon enough to halt the spiralling death toll inside their country.

Mark, nearing 70 years of age, has been fighting in Lebanon and other Israeli battlefronts for over four decades, since Israel’s first ground invasion of its northern neighbour in 1978. Now one of the oldest reservists in the IDF, he is stoic about the prospects of this latest offensive.

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“I guess we may need to stay here and hold a small security zone again, but that’s just my opinion,” he said, referring to Israel’s 18-year occupation in the 1980s and 1990s of the very hills around which he was now navigating his armoured personnel carrier — another paratrooper shepherding journalists to see yet another Israeli war in southern Lebanon.

This story was viewed by the Israeli military censors as a condition of accompanying troops into Lebanon. Nothing was changed as a result.

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