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China’s economy hit by double whammy in March

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China’s economy hit by double whammy in March

The official manufacturing Buying Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 49.5 from 50.2 in February, the Nationwide Bureau of Statistics (NBS) stated on Thursday, whereas the non-manufacturing PMI eased to 48.4 from 51.6 in February.

The final time each PMI indexes concurrently have been beneath the 50-point mark that separates contraction from progress was in February 2020, when authorities have been racing to arrest the unfold of the coronavirus, first detected within the central Chinese language metropolis of Wuhan.

The world’s second-largest economic system revved up in January-February, with some key indicators blowing previous expectations, however is now vulnerable to slowing sharply as authorities prohibit manufacturing and mobility in Covid-hit cities, together with Shanghai and Shenzhen.

“Lately, clusters of epidemic outbreaks have occurred in lots of locations in China, and paired with a major improve in world geopolitical instability, manufacturing and operation of Chinese language enterprises have been affected,” stated Zhao Qinghe, senior NBS statistician.

Shanghai’s Covid-19 lockdown roiled auto manufacturing in latest days as two main suppliers joined Tesla (TSLA) in shutting crops to adjust to measures to manage the unfold of the coronavirus.

“PMI weakened because the Omicron outbreaks in lots of Chinese language cities led to lockdowns and disruption of commercial manufacturing,” stated Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Administration.

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“Because the Shanghai lockdown solely occurred in late March, financial actions will doubtless gradual additional in April.”

The sub-index for manufacturing fell beneath the 50-point mark for the primary time since October, to 49.5, indicating a contraction. The gauge for brand spanking new orders was additionally in adverse territory.

“Because of the epidemic outbreaks, some firms in some areas briefly decreased manufacturing or stopped manufacturing, which additionally affected the conventional manufacturing and operation of each upstream and downstream firms,” Zhao stated.

Traders sleep by their desks as China's financial hub locks down

Some firms additionally noticed the cancellation or discount of abroad orders resulting from geopolitical uncertainties, Zhao stated.

Weakening manufacturing and demand sped up the contraction in manufacturing facility jobs, with the employment sub-index slipping to 48.6 in March, the bottom since February 2021.

Worst since Wuhan

“The PMIs in all probability understate the hit to exercise final month,” stated Julian Evans-Pritchard, senior China economist at Capital Economics.

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“The providers index remained above the low of 45.2 that it hit final August in the course of the Delta wave. That is in all probability as a result of the survey was performed previous to the worst disruptions.”

To cushion the impression of latest Covid-19 lockdowns, authorities have unveiled steps to help enterprise, together with lease exemptions for some small services-sector corporations.

On Wednesday, the federal government stated it can roll out insurance policies to stabilize the economic system as quickly as doable amid elevated pressures.

The central financial institution, which saved its benchmark rate of interest for company and family lending unchanged in March, is anticipated to chop charges and decrease reserve necessities for banks as downward financial pressures construct, analysts say.

China’s official composite PMI, which mixed manufacturing and providers, stood at 48.8 in March versus 51.2 in February.

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The composite PMI was at its second-lowest studying on file since February 2020, when the preliminary Covid-19 outbreak despatched the index plummeting to twenty-eight.9.

“This implies that the economic system is contracting at its quickest tempo because the peak of the preliminary Covid-19 outbreak in February 2020,” stated Evans-Pritchard.

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Donald Trump says he will hit China, Canada and Mexico with new tariffs

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Donald Trump says he will hit China, Canada and Mexico with new tariffs

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Donald Trump has said he will impose tariffs of 25 per cent on all imports from Canada and Mexico, and an extra 10 per cent on Chinese goods, accusing the countries of permitting illegal migration and drug trafficking.

In a post on his social media site Truth Social, Trump said he would impose the tariffs on Canada and Mexico on his first day in office “on ALL products coming into the United States, and its ridiculous open borders”, which would remain in place “until such time as Drugs, in particular Fentanyl, and all Illegal Aliens stop this Invasion of our Country”.

Trump said the tariffs on China would apply to all imports and would come on top of existing levies, as he criticised Beijing for failing to follow through on promises to impose the death penalty for people dealing fentanyl, a deadly synthetic opioid.

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The Canadian dollar fell 0.9 per cent against the US dollar to a four-year low, while the Mexican peso shed 1.3 per cent, adding to a sharp depreciation this year. China’s onshore renminbi slipped 0.1 per cent to Rmb7.25.

The announcements serve as opening shots in Trump’s confrontational new trade policy, following an election in which he campaigned on broad tariffs and lambasted the US’s trading partners. Trump had previously threatened to impose a blanket tariff of more than 60 per cent on all Chinese imports.

“Stiff new tariffs on imports from the US’s three largest trading partners would significantly increase costs and disrupt business across all economies involved,” said Erica York of the Tax Foundation, a Washington-based think-tank. “Even the threat of tariffs can have a chilling effect.”

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China hit back at Trump’s comments, which state television CCTV labelled “irresponsible”. Beijing has sought to present itself as a guardian of open trade, despite accusations of heavily subsidising its manufacturers and maintaining tight barriers on international companies’ access to parts of its domestic market.

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“Economic globalisation is an irreversible historical trend,” China’s vice-president Han Zheng said on Tuesday at the opening of a global supply chain expo in Beijing. He added that China would “work to build an open world economic system and safeguard the stability and unimpeded functioning of the global industrial supply chain”.

Trump had in particular targeted Mexico on the campaign trail, threatening to impose “whatever tariffs are required — 100 per cent, 200 per cent, 1,000 per cent” to stop Chinese cars from crossing the southern border.

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He has also warned Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum he would impose tariffs of 25 per cent if she did not crack down on the “onslaught of criminals and drugs” crossing the border.

The levies could be imposed using executive powers that would override the USMCA, the free trade agreement Trump signed with Canada and Mexico during his first term as president.

“There’s a lot of integration of North American manufacturing in a lot of sectors, particularly autos, so this would be pretty disruptive for a lot of US companies and industries,” said Warren Maruyama, former general counsel at the Office of the US Trade Representative. “Tariffs are inflationary and will drive up prices,” he added.

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Ricardo Monreal, leader of Mexico’s ruling party in the lower house of congress, said tariffs would “not solve the underlying issue” at the border. “Escalating trade retaliation would only hurt people’s pockets,” he wrote on X.

Diego Marroquín Bitar at the Wilson Center think-tank warned that unilateral tariffs “would shatter confidence in USMCA and harm all three economies”.

In a joint statement, Canada’s deputy prime minister Chrystia Freeland and public safety minister Dominic LeBlanc hailed the bilateral relationship with the US as “one of the strongest and closest . . . particularly when it comes to trade and border security”.

They also noted that Canada “buys more from the United States than China, Japan, France and the UK combined”, and last year supplied “60 per cent of US crude oil imports”.

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“Even if this is a negotiating strategy, I don’t see what Canada has to offer that Trump is not already getting,” said Carlo Dade at the Canada West Foundation.

While Trump put tariffs at the centre of his economic pitch to voters, President Joe Biden has also increased levies on Chinese imports. In May, Biden’s administration sharply increased tariffs on a range of imported clean-energy technologies, including boosting tariffs on electric vehicles from China to 100 per cent.

Biden’s administration has also pushed Beijing for several years to crack down on the production of ingredients for fentanyl, which it estimated claimed the lives of almost 75,000 Americans in 2023. Beijing this year agreed to impose controls on chemicals crucial to manufacturing fentanyl following meetings with senior US officials.

Additional reporting by William Sandlund and Haohsiang Ko in Hong Kong, Christine Murray in Mexico City, Ilya Gridneff in Toronto, Joe Leahy in Beijing and Alex Rogers in Washington

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The price America paid for its first big immigration crackdown

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The price America paid for its first big immigration crackdown

The Massacre of Chinese Americans at Rock Springs, Wyoming. Illustration by Thure de Thulstrup. Published in Harper’s Weekly, September 26, 1885.

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The Chinese Exclusion Act is widely considered to be the first significant crackdown on immigration in American history. It’s a riveting tale that parallels today and may provide insights into the economic consequences of immigration restrictions and mass deportations. This is Part 2 of that story, which explores the economic and political factors that led to the Act and examines what happened to the American economy after it was passed (Part 1 can be read here). Please note: this story includes racist quotes from the 19th century.

On May 10, 1869, the eyes of America focused on a makeshift ceremony in the middle of nowhere.

Two railroad companies had spent six years on one of the most ambitious infrastructure projects of the 19th century: the construction of the first transcontinental railroad. One company had built from the east. The other from the west. This was the day they finally met up and linked their tracks together.

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The meeting point was a place called Promontory Summit in the desolate desert of northwest Utah. A thousand people — politicians, journalists, railroad executives and workers — traveled there for the monumental occasion.

As we covered in Part 1 of this story, this historic moment would not have been possible without the sacrifices of Chinese immigrants. They had played a crucial role in constructing the western part of the railroad — the most difficult and dangerous section to build. As many as 1,200 Chinese immigrants died constructing it. However, on this day of celebration, railroad executives decided to exclude their Chinese workers from the official ceremony and photographs. Ouch.

Railroad workers celebrate at the driving of the Golden Spike Ceremony in Utah on May 10, 1869 signifying completion of the first transcontinental railroad route created by joining the Central Pacific and Union Pacific Railroads.

Railroad workers celebrate at the driving of the Golden Spike Ceremony in Utah on May 10, 1869 signifying completion of the first transcontinental railroad route created by joining the Central Pacific and Union Pacific Railroads.

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But Chinese Americans had reason to be hopeful in the wake of the transcontinental railroad’s completion. Since they began arriving in America a couple decades before, they had been the target of discriminatory laws and violence. But now national news reports praised them as skilled and productive workers making invaluable contributions to America’s economy.

“The Chinaman is a born railroad builder, and as such he is destined to be most useful to California, and, indeed, to the whole Pacific slope,” read one nationally circulated news report. The Daily Alta California, then the most popular newspaper in the state, declared that Chinese workers “do a better, neater, and cleaner job, and do it faster and cheaper than white laborers from the East.”

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Political winds also seemed to be blowing in favor of Chinese Americans. In 1868, the United States signed the Burlingame Treaty, which strengthened diplomatic and trade relations with China and encouraged “free migration and emigration” between the two countries. In the decade to come, the Chinese population in America would swell by about 50 percent.

Even more, this was the post-Civil War Reconstruction era, when Radical Republicans were amending the U.S. Constitution and fighting for the civil rights of freed slaves. Many hoped that new constitutional amendments and civil rights laws would apply to other excluded groups — including Chinese immigrants. Back then, the only immigrants who were allowed to become American citizens and obtain equal rights were “free white persons.”

In 1870, U.S. Senator Charles Sumner (R-Massachusetts), one of America’s leading voices for abolition and civil rights, fought to open up a pathway for Chinese and other non-white immigrants to become citizens. But Western politicians, including in Sumner’s own more racially progressive Republican party, saw this proposal as politically radioactive.

In making his case against Sumner’s bill to open a pathway to citizenship for Chinese immigrants, Senator William Morris Stewart (R-Nevada) warned that the West Coast would be “overpowered by the mob element that seeks to exterminate the Chinese” if it passed, and that “they will be slaughtered before any one of them can be naturalized under your bill.”

The effort to expand citizenship and civil rights to Chinese immigrants failed to pass Congress. But the “mob element” — as Senator Stewart called it — would nonetheless make life miserable for Chinese Americans.

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In an omen of the horrors to come, just one year later, a white mob in Los Angeles lynched 17 Chinese men and boys in a raid on Chinatown. It was one of the largest — if not the largest — mass lynching in American history. It became known as “the Chinese Massacre of 1871.”

All of this was before “The Panic of 1873,” a financial crisis that would plunge America’s economy into a long and miserable depression. In the depths of despair, white working-class Americans on the West Coast would rally around a new populist slogan: “The Chinese must go!”

The Long Depression And The Rise of Racist Populism

The completion of the transcontinental railroad may have, ironically, contributed to the coming populist backlash. For one, excitement over the transcontinental and other railroads led to a speculative bubble. Investors overestimated the money-making potential of railroads, and once the transcontinental railroad was up and running, reality began to set in about how much money railroads and related investments would actually make. When the bubble burst in 1873, it took the whole economy with it.

The transcontinental railroad also integrated what had been effectively two separate American economies into one. Like the adoption of container ships during the globalization era of the 20th and 21st centuries, the transcontinental railroad increased competition in the economy by making it easier and cheaper to distribute and sell products to faraway places. This bigger, more competitive market was great for consumers, economic efficiency, and the nation’s long-term economic growth. But, with the railroad now serving as a new pipeline for products, West Coast industries were suddenly forced to compete with the more efficient and mechanized industries of the East Coast. Nancy Qian, an economist at Northwestern University, says this made the economic downturn that followed the Panic of 1873 much worse in the West.

Even more, during and after completion of the railroad, Chinese immigrants became a more sought after workforce, which effectively put a target on their backs. Increasing numbers of white workers began to resent them. They saw them as a culturally alien workforce, willing and able to do all sorts of jobs for less pay. And it wasn’t just railroads. Chinese immigrants now worked in all sorts of West Coast industries, including manufacturing, agriculture, woodcutting, and mining. “While the Chinese constituted less than 10 percent of the population of California in 1870, they accounted for approximately 25 percent of the workforce,” writes Beth Lew-Williams in her book The Chinese Must Go: Violence, Exclusion, and the Making of the Alien in America.

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As the economy cratered after the Panic of 1873, a scarcity of jobs led to a zero-sum mindset amongst white workers. Demagogues began to blame the labor competition posed by increasing numbers of Chinese immigrants for the miseries of white joblessness and meager pay. They painted Chinese immigrants as the servile tools of monopolistic corporations, which were becoming increasingly powerful in the rapidly industrializing United States. The mighty railroad companies — which now owned valuable land across the United States thanks to federal legislation that funded the transcontinental railroad — were a prominent example. Populists began to rail against big corporations for employing the cheap labor of Chinese immigrants instead of the labor of white people — many of whom, by the way, were also recent immigrants themselves.

In late 1877, an Irish immigrant in San Francisco named Denis Kearney founded The Workingmen’s Party of California. Kearney articulated a populist politics that combined pro-labor and anti-corporate rhetoric with virulent anti-Chinese racism.

In one famous demonstration, in October 1877, Kearney led a mob to Nob Hill, a fancy part of San Francisco where the West Coast railroad barons had built mansions. Kearney gave a fiery speech to 2,000 people in front of the home of Charles Crocker, an executive at Central Pacific Railroad who had been instrumental in recruiting Chinese workers to build the transcontinental railroad.

“The Central Pacific Railroad men are thieves, and will soon feel the power of the workingmen,” Kearney said. “When I have thoroughly organized my party, we will march through the city and compel the thieves to give up their plunder. I will lead you to the City Hall, clean out the police force, hang the Prosecuting Attorney, burn every book that has a particle of law in it, and then enact new laws for the workingmen. I will give the Central Pacific just three months to discharge their Chinamen.”

In another speech, in front of a crowd in Boston, Kearney said, “The capitalist thief and land pirate of California, instead of employing the poor white man of that beautiful and golden State, send across Asia, the oldest despotism on earth, and there contracting with a band of leprous Chinese pirates, brought them to California, and now uses them as a knife to cut the throats of honest laboring men in that State.”

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In rabble-rousing speech after speech, it was Kearney who popularized the slogan, “The Chinese must go!”

Kearney and the Workingmen’s Party would fail to achieve lasting political power, but their ideas proved to be popular on the West Coast. By the late 1870s, the writing was on the wall for both national political parties: if they wanted to win elections in West Coast states, they would need to clamp down on Chinese immigration.

The Rise of Chinese Exclusion

Back in those days, Washington — which didn’t have much experience actually trying to regulate immigration — viewed immigration policy as something you cordially worked out with the origin countries of immigrants. American political elites also hoped to remain friendly with China, which they viewed as economically and geopolitically important. And so, in 1880, the administration of President Rutherford B. Hayes delicately worked with China to amend the Burlingame Treaty, which had encouraged the free flow of immigration between the two countries. This new treaty, the Angell Treaty, allowed the United States to “regulate, limit, or suspend” the flow of Chinese laborers to the country. Congress could now act.

In 1882, after a presidential election, they did just that. Congress passed a forceful bill halting immigration of Chinese workers for twenty years and requiring Chinese immigrants already in the United States to register with the government and obtain “passports” so they could prove their legal status (similar to a “green card” today).

However, President Chester A. Arthur — who had only recently been elevated to the presidency after James Garfield was assassinated — objected to the law and decided to veto it. He believed it was too harsh. In his veto message, Arthur said the law would damage diplomatic and trade relations with China, which he and many others believed were vital to American interests. He objected to provisions requiring Chinese Americans to register with the government and obtain documents to prove their legal status, calling it “undemocratic and hostile to the spirit of our institutions.”

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Even more, Arthur said, America “profited” from the work of Chinese immigrants — a belief held by many of the West Coast’s business elites.

“They were largely instrumental in constructing the railways which connect the Atlantic with the Pacific,” President Arthur said. “The States of the Pacific Slope are full of evidences of their industry. Enterprises profitable alike to the capitalist and to the laborer of Caucasian origin would have lain dormant but for them.” Arthur contended that the Chinese immigrants could continue to help develop and enrich America and, basically, do jobs that white people didn’t want to do.

Arthur’s veto, however, proved to be a political disaster. Many Americans erupted with anger. The Knights of Labor, a growing national labor union, organized thousands of workers to protest it. Across California, townspeople burned and hanged President Arthur’s effigy. Members of Arthur’s own Republican party worried his veto meant that they would fail to win elections on the West Coast for the foreseeable future.

Facing a national outcry, Congress went back to the drawing board a few weeks later. And they passed a watered-down version of the bill, which President Arthur signed into law on May 6, 1882.

This 1882 law is now popularly known as “the Chinese Exclusion Act.” It banned both skilled and unskilled Chinese laborers from immigrating to the US for ten years. Symbolically and politically, this bill was a big deal: it was the first significant crackdown on immigration in American history, a message that the federal government opposed Chinese immigration, and a reaffirmation that Chinese immigrants already in America could never become citizens.

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However, the Chinese Exclusion Act of 1882 was just one in a series of federal laws against Chinese immigrants — and, as Beth Lew-Williams makes clear in The Chinese Must Go, this 1882 law was actually quite ineffective. Basically, President Arthur and Congress threw a bone to the insurgent anti-Chinese movement, but they provided few resources for federal enforcement against Chinese immigration and introduced a bunch of loopholes that allowed Chinese immigrants to continue coming in.

In the years after the Act’s passage, West Coast newspapers and populist agitators grew angry that Chinese immigrants were still entering the country and demanded that the government do more. This was the beginning of what you might call the national fight against “illegal immigration” — because before this virtually all immigration to the United States was legal.

But the growing discontent with the first iteration of the Chinese Exclusion Act wasn’t just about its lack of enforcement and loopholes. For many white Americans, simply preventing the flow of new Chinese immigrants wasn’t enough. They wanted expulsions and deportations of the Chinese people who already lived here — even though the vast majority of them were here legally.

And soon white vigilantes would take matters into their own hands.

Vigilante Expulsion

By 1885, anti-Chinese forces in the West had become emboldened by the federal government’s actions declaring that Chinese immigration was, in fact, a problem that needed to be solved. But they were also frustrated that Chinese workers seemed to keep coming into the country. Even more, they were angry about the continued presence of Chinese people in their communities and workplaces.

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The first purges of Chinese Americans in towns across the West began spontaneously in response to inciting incidents. But what began as a movement characterized by sporadic outbursts of violence would soon morph into a premeditated political strategy of ethnic cleansing.

In Eureka, California, on February 6, 1885, two Chinese men got into a dispute and began firing guns at each other. One of them accidentally shot a white city councilman crossing the street. Shortly after, a mob of white residents stormed into the city’s Chinatown chanting “Hang all the Chinamen!” and “Burn Chinatown!” City leaders, including the mayor, sheriff, and a Christian minister, intervened to prevent arson and murders, but white gangs looted Chinatown. And, within about 48 hours, local vigilantes rounded up Chinese residents — hundreds of people — forced them onto steamships bound for San Francisco and told them to never return again. It became known as “the Eureka method” of expulsion and was soon copied by neighboring cities.

Later that year, in Rock Springs, Wyoming, a fight broke out between some Chinese and white miners that quickly exploded into horrific violence. Both groups were employed by the Union Pacific Coal Company (the same Union Pacific that built half of the transcontinental railroad). White miners, themselves immigrants, had grown to resent Chinese miners. On numerous occasions, Union Pacific had brought in Chinese workers after white workers went on strike for better wages, leading the white miners to view their Chinese counterparts as low-wage scabs. (Union Pacific, however, had also brought in Scandinavian immigrants in a similar way, but that didn’t seem to elicit the same level of rage.) This particular fight was over whether Chinese or white workers would get to work in a particularly lucrative mine. It got very ugly very fast. After the dispute, a white mob descended on Chinatown, murdered 28 Chinese miners and wounded 15 others, drove the whole Chinese community out, and set their homes and stores ablaze. The incident was dubbed “The Rock Springs Massacre.”

In Tacoma, Washington, a couple months later, residents took a more methodical, premeditated approach. “The violence of Tacoma differed from incidents at Eureka and Rock Springs,” writes Lew-Williams. “The Tacoma expulsion was not a spontaneous act by a mob angered by a triggering incident. Rather, it was cold and deliberate collective action that was publicly announced well in advance.” Nonetheless, while it may have been more orderly and less sudden, it resembled “the Eureka method.” White vigilantes — including Mayor Jacob Weisbach and other local political leaders — forcibly expelled all of Tacoma’s Chinese residents, this time putting them on a train instead of boats. They then demolished Tacoma’s Chinatown.

"The Tacoma Method" of Chinese expulsion

“The Tacoma Method” of Chinese expulsion

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Truckee, California, took a different approach to Chinese expulsion. Truckee sits in the basin underneath the Sierra Nevada peaks where Chinese rail workers had painstakingly built tunnels to allow passage for the transcontinental railroad (see Part 1 of this story). It boomed in population during and after the railroad’s construction, and many Chinese rail workers made it their home. By 1870, around a third of Truckee’s population was of Chinese descent. It had one of the biggest Chinatowns in the United States.

White residents of Truckee had long made life difficult for its Chinese residents. In 1876, for instance, white militants — part of a secretive group called “The Caucasian League” — murdered a Chinese woodcutter and wounded others and then, despite a trial, were found innocent (these types of acquittals for racist thugs and vigilantes were common in the West back then). Over the years, Truckee’s Chinatown was burned in a series of mysterious — but actually not so mysterious — fires. In fact, after one such fire, the town forced their Chinese residents to build a new Chinatown across the Truckee River. This new Chinatown had no bridge, so they had to cross the river by ferry.

But this wasn’t enough for the white residents of Truckee. They wanted Chinese people gone from the area completely. In the winter of 1885-86, a local lawyer and newspaper owner named Charles McGlashan was inspired by the cascade of purges across the West Coast. However, by then, there seemed to be some growing political and legal blowback for these extralegal expulsions. The town of Eureka, for example, was being sued by their former Chinese denizens for reparations. National politicians condemned violence in places like Rock Springs.

It was within this context that McGlashan pioneered what became known as “The Truckee Method,” a relatively non-violent — but still violent — boycott and harassment campaign against Chinese businesses and white businesses that employed Chinese people. The aim was to starve the Chinese out by eliminating their local economic opportunities and making their lives miserable. The campaign proved successful in ridding the town of Chinese residents and was copied by numerous other towns up and down California. McGlashan became a leader in an anti-Chinese boycott movement across the state.

Over the course of 1885 and 1886, more than 160 communities across the West Coast would expel their Chinese inhabitants. And they made it abundantly clear to national politicians: many Western voters were not satisfied with the 1882 law.

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In 1888, President Grover Cleveland — hoping to carry Western states in his upcoming reelection battle — signed into law another Chinese Exclusion Act that had more teeth than the first one. This one prohibited all Chinese laborers from coming into the country — whether or not they had resided in the United States previously. It was a policy that was easier to enforce and administer. It was also quickly implemented, leaving thousands of Chinese immigrants who had traveled abroad stranded and unable to return. It was also a policy that angered China and marked the beginning of an age in which the United States set restrictive immigration policy unilaterally.

After President Cleveland signed this legislation into law, many white westerners took to the streets to celebrate. This was only two years after the unveiling of the Statue of Liberty, which proclaimed that America was a refuge for “your tired, your poor, your huddled masses yearning to breathe free.”

Four years later, with the Geary Act, Washington renewed Chinese exclusion for another ten years, expanded the power of the federal government to enforce anti-Chinese immigration laws, and implemented the registration and “passport” system that President Arthur had called “undemocratic and hostile to the spirit of our institutions.”

The Chinese Exclusion Acts — and the mob violence, pogroms, boycotts, and other forms of expulsion — had their intended effect. In 1890, the US Census Bureau recorded 107,488 Chinese people living in the United States. In 1900, that number dropped to 89,863. And by 1910, it was 71,531. The restrictions on Chinese immigration would not begin to be lifted until World War II.

The Economic Effects of Chinese Exclusion

Historians have found that the economies of towns suffered after they kicked out their Chinese residents.

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Eureka, California faced all sorts of economic problems. “For most white residents, the financial loss was immediate,” writes Jean Pfaelzer in her book Driven Out: The Forgotten War Against Chinese Americans. Businesses lost workers. “Some went into debt to pay higher salaries to new white employees.” Landlords lost tenants. Stores lost customers. Chinese entrepreneurs had run the laundries in the town, and now people were stuck with dirty clothes. Chinese vegetable growers had provided the town with its produce and their disappearance meant no more fresh veggies. “White residents tried their hands at growing their own vegetables but complained about their poor results, the lack of variety of food, and the rotting produce that was shipped north from San Francisco,” writes Pfaelzer.

It was similar in Truckee. “The Chinese were renters, shoppers, and low-paid laborers, and white agents made money from their legal, real estate, and commercial transactions,” writes Pfaelzer. Charles McGlashan, the leader of the anti-Chinese boycott, sought to replace Chinese laundromats with an “expensive steam laundry,” but it was “simply too large and expensive for the needs of the small railroad town, and the Truckee Laundry Association was sued by its major investors.” Truckee businesses desperately recruited white workers with advertisements, but “cheap white labor did not emerge, and mountain inns and hotels faced a summer season without food, while lumber camps could not staff their cookhouses.”

Across California, near the start of the spring of 1886, “large-scale farmers, food processors, and cannery owners realized that they would not be able to carry on their businesses without the Chinese,” writes Pfaelzer.

Of course, all of these are just anecdotes about local effects. And, until recently, we’ve had no rigorous economic study of the effects of Chinese exclusion on the American economy. But in a new study, economists Nancy Qian, Joe Long, Carlo Medici, and Marco Tabellini provide just that.

The title of their working paper is “The Impact of the Chinese Exclusion Act on the economic development of the Western United States,” but Nancy Qian, an economist at Northwestern University, says their study’s estimated effects really include all the anti-Chinese laws, discrimination, and purges that affected Chinese Americans after 1882. “If vigilante violence and discrimination had been milder, then the anti-Chinese legislations would have probably had a smaller negative effect on the US economy,” Qian says. Namely, these laws would have reduced the inflow of Chinese immigrants, but they would not have caused as many Chinese Americans to flee communities, workplaces, and, more broadly, the United States.

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In this way, Qian and her colleagues’ study may provide some insight into the effects not only of the restricted inflow of immigration — the official intent of the Chinese Exclusion Act — but also of mass deportations since many Chinese were forced out of communities and ultimately left the country.

Chinese immigrants had been vital to many West Coast industries. “By 1882, the Chinese had spread out across a lot of different sectors, and they were taking the skills that they had learned, mining, building the railroad, and also the ones they brought from China — they were applying it to lots of different things,” Qian says. This, she says, made the economy better for just about everyone.

“The sad punchline” of their study, Qian says, “is that very few people benefited from the Chinese Exclusion Act” and later laws and community actions. Western businesses suffered, and cities and towns across the West that saw their Chinese populations decline or disappear became less economically vibrant. For example, Qian and her colleagues find there was a slowdown in Western manufacturing, a sector in which many Chinese immigrants had worked.

The crackdown against Chinese immigrants, Qian says, hurt most of the white population in the West. And, further, it made West Coast towns and cities that had large Chinese populations in 1882 less of a magnet for white workers from the East because economic opportunities in these places shriveled. The economists find that Chinese exclusion, in its many 1882 and post-1882 incarnations, slowed down the economic growth and development of the West.

But Qian and her colleagues find there was at least one clear group of workers who benefited from Chinese exclusion: local white miners. It’s interesting because the first wave of Chinese immigrants who came here, after 1849, came to America with the hope of finding gold. And the first discriminatory laws they faced were at the local level and aimed to discourage Chinese immigrants from mining. It also provides more context for the resentment and rage of white miners that exploded in the Rock Springs massacre.

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Mining is maybe more zero sum than other parts of the economy. There’s a fixed level of stuff in the ground and one person’s gain in finding valuable minerals is another person’s loss.

But Qian’s study suggests most of the economy didn’t work this way. It was not zero sum. Chinese workers actually improved the economic lives of most white workers and businessmen.

As a concrete example, she points to Chinese woodcutters. “So the Chinese workers — who were chopping down trees and making them into planks for the railroad — were now chopping down trees and making them into planks for the construction of houses and bars and hotels in western towns,” Qian says. “This is a very valuable skill. Now, all of a sudden, they leave. That doesn’t just affect the lumber mill. But you have to think about all the people who are relying on using the wood. So now the doctor’s office, the barmen, the hotel men, the railroad, everyone now has to pay more for wood. I mean, this is just a very important material for the whole economy.”

So, if there’s a lesson from Qian’s study, it’s that, yes, maybe immigration restrictions and expulsions or deportations can actually help some native workers. But, really, the cost is tremendous — not just for the immigrants themselves but also for almost everyone else.

The Recent Movement To Honor Chinese Victims

The story of what happened to Chinese immigrants is horrific. And in recent years, towns on the West Coast that purged their Chinese populations have begun to memorialize this dark period of history and honor the Chinese people who were kicked out of their towns.

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For example, the city of Tacoma worked with the Chinese Reconciliation Project Foundation, a nonprofit, to create a park, which is called Tacoma Chinese Reconciliation Park.

Since 2021, an organization called the Eureka Chinatown Project has done various projects around Eureka to “honor the history and culture of the first Chinese people in Humboldt County, California” (the county Eureka is in).

Earlier this year, Truckee unveiled a plaque to commemorate the two Chinatowns that once existed in the town.

Many Americans remain ignorant of this history, and the organizers behind these projects want to educate them about it — with the hope history won’t repeat itself.

When researching this history, we read a number of illuminating books. We thank the historians for their work. You can check them out yourself: 

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Ghosts of Gold Mountain: The Epic Story of the Chinese Who Built the Transcontinental Railroad by Gordon H. Chang

Driven Out: The Forgotten War against Chinese Americans by Jean Pfaelzer

The Chinese Must Go: Violence, Exclusion, and the Making of the Alien in America by Beth Lew-Williams

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Labour has a classic first act problem

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Labour has a classic first act problem

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Governments are like plays: if the third act is unsatisfactory, the problem can usually be traced back to the first. Britain’s new(ish) Labour government is a case in point.

Labour’s first act problem lies in the decision the party leadership made in opposition to rule out any increase in income tax, national insurance or value added tax. Everything it has done in the four months since entering office, and everything it does for the next five years, will in one way or another be distorted by those pledges.

While the party’s focus groups consistently find that the condition of the UK’s public services in general and the NHS in particular matter more to their re-election hopes than anything else, its tax pledges place hard limits on how much can be spent on those services.

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As a consequence, and in order to fulfil Labour’s ambitions, businesses have to take a greater share of the strain, with all the negative implications that has for the UK’s already sluggish economic growth. Some of the policies involved are particularly ill-timed. For instance, Britain has made its rules on non-domiciled high earners from overseas less attractive at precisely the point at which the country faces a generational opportunity to attract talent looking for somewhere else to go following the election of Donald Trump in the US.

In some ways, it’s not a good idea to over-intellectualise about why Labour are raising taxes in this way. The shared lie in British politics for the best part of a decade now has been that you can have excellent public services for the many funded by taxes on the few. Mitt Romney was unable to convince a much more naturally pro-business electorate that corporations are in fact people, and while that argument is no less correct in the UK, it has even less hope of landing any time soon.  

But two measures are worth thinking about in light of another promise made by both Labour and the Conservative opposition: to reduce the UK’s net immigration statistics. These are the souped-up national minimum wage and the rise in employers’ national insurance contributions. Taken together, they represent significant new costs on hiring people — other than in the public sector, which will be exempt from the increase in NICs.

Increasing the cost of employment is generally a bad move with plenty of negative externalities — unless, that is, you think that the British public won’t bear greater levels of immigration or that we actually need to see net decreases. The former is the dominant position in the Labour party. The latter is the official position of the Reform party and becoming more widely held among Conservatives.

If you believe that, then you are no longer in the business of working out how best to attract talent. Rather, you are in the business of working out how to deploy your current labour force differently.

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You absolutely do want to disincentivise hiring someone to work in an Amazon warehouse or at a supermarket checkout so that you can fill vacancies in the social care sector or the NHS without recourse to further immigration. You do want the restaurant and hospitality sector to struggle and to shrink in order to free up additional labour market capacity for the state. You want fewer people in the private sector in general in order to be able to get by with a falling number of working age people and the current level of state provision — even more so if you want to maintain or increase the current level of financial support for the retired. This, again, is the position of both the Labour government and the Conservative opposition, which opposed even the relatively trivial measure to means test the winter fuel allowance (a Tory policy as recently as 2017).

Now, it’s true to say that there are some positive externalities here: a supermarket that invests in a self-service checkout with a skilled tradesperson to repair it is a good proposition. And the irony is that all of these measures have been what Conservative backbenchers have long claimed to want, only to discover that when they are implemented by Labour ministers they became repugnant.

There’s a lesson here for both the government and the opposition. If the prospect of squeezing out private sector jobs in order to keep the standard of public service provision up and the number of immigrants down is so unpleasant, then something needs to change. One or both of those impossible promises is going to have to be traded away, openly and explicitly. Failing that, both sides need to relax, stop worrying and learn to love Rachel Reeves’ Budget.

stephen.bush@ft.com

 

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