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After backing him in 2020, a new poll shows some young voters are Biden's to lose
Supporters listen as President Biden speaks during a Black Voters for Biden campaign event at Girard College, Wednesday, May 29, in Philadelphia. Biden won Black voters under 45 with around 80% in 2020. In a recent University of Chicago poll, that support is more of a question in 2024.
Evan Vucci/AP/AP
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Evan Vucci/AP/AP
Five months out from the presidential election, the state of the youth vote, in some ways, remains a question mark.
It’s a regularly covered topic as President Biden continues to receive low marks from Gen Z and millennial voters, even as the same age group decidedly voted for him four years ago.
But among younger Black, Latino and Asian American voters, who overwhelmingly sided with Biden in 2020, and at higher rates than young white voters did, support has considerably faltered, according to the University of Chicago’s latest GenForward survey.
The survey, exclusively obtained by NPR, which was conducted from May 10-22, polled the political attitudes of 2,089 Americans under 40, with largely equal samples of white, Black, Latino and Asian American and Pacific Islander (AAPI) individuals.
It found that just one-third of all young Americans said they would back Biden if the election was held at the time the survey was conducted. The poll also reflects a virtual tie in the race. Biden leads former President Donald Trump by just two points, and 34% of respondents are currently backing a third-party candidate or said they would support “someone else.”
Plus, despite speculation over how U.S. support for Israel may negatively affect Biden’s youth coalition, the poll found that the war in Gaza is not the top voting issue for most young Americans. Instead, economic concerns, particularly over inflation, remain front and center.
That said, the economy is one of several policy areas, along with immigration and the war in Gaza, where respondents were less likely to pick Biden as the best candidate to handle the issue, illustrating a potentially deeper problem for his campaign with younger Americans.
Biden’s 2020 coalition is missing in 2024
Broken down by race and ethnicity, Biden has particularly lost ground with Black and Latino young people.
In 2020, 89% of Black voters aged 18-29 voted for Biden, as well as 78% of those aged 30-44. In the latest GenForward survey, just 33% said they would support him if the election were held today and 23% chose Trump.
Trump is beating Biden among young Latino voters by a four-point margin. It’s a significant drop in support for Biden compared to four years ago, when he won 69% of Latino voters under 30, and 62% of those 30-44.
When looking at a sample of only registered voters, the numbers improve for Biden and push him back ahead of Trump with Latinos, but the margins remain slim. Biden’s support with Black voters only ticks up two points to 35%.
“Young people are saying to Joe Biden, ‘win me, win my vote,’” said Cathy Cohen, a professor at the University of Chicago who founded and leads the GenForward poll. “’Don’t assume I’m going to vote for you now.’”
That statement rings true particularly for individuals still searching for a different candidate, even as the presidential primary season is virtually finished. Among both Black and Latino Americans, about a quarter said they would vote for someone else.

There are several paths for the “someone else” voter and Cohen argued opinions could likely change as the election nears closer.
“This is how young people are kind of showing up right now as we begin to enter the summer,” she added. “Come November, when there is something at stake… those numbers could look a little different.”
But in GenForward’s June survey four years ago – which did not include third-party candidates – Biden did have considerably more support. He received backing from a majority of Black, Latino and Asian Americans and an average of just 15% said they would vote for someone else.
The latest poll’s inclusion of third-party candidates, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West may also indicate how additional names on the ballot could splinter the youth vote in the fall. A similar result was reflected in the latest Harvard Youth Poll, Biden defeats Trump in a head-to-head matchup, but when third-party candidates are included, the margin decreases.
Economic issues are driving voters, not the Israel-Hamas war
Inflation ranks first across all groups when asked what issue is most important when voting this fall. Concerns around economic growth come second for Black, Latino and AAPI young people, while “threats to American Democracy” does for whites.
To Cohen, a lot of Biden’s problems revolve around the current state of the economy, and though inflation is slowing, she argues these shifts haven’t fully resonated.
“These young people are dealing with increasing rents, increasing food prices, increasing gas costs, and their incomes are less flexible, I would argue, than older folks,” she explained.
Gen Z and millennials are not alone in prioritizing economic issues. It consistently ranks number one across generations and racial groups. In this latest poll, issues often linked to younger voters, like abortion rights, curbing gun violence, addressing climate change and ending the war in Gaza, appear lower on the list of important issues.
When asked to choose which presidential candidate would do the best on issues relating to immigration and inflation, Trump has the most support overall. But, in the question, which gave respondents the options of Trump, Biden, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West and “none of them,” Trump is closely followed by “none of them.”
One of Biden’s areas of relative strength, abortion access, has been a cornerstone of his campaign. Biden leads by just three points followed by the option, “none of them.”
In the 2022 midterms, safeguarding abortion access was the top motivator for voters under 30, and they turned out overwhelmingly for Democratic candidates.
It remains an important electoral issue in the GenForward poll: a third of overall respondents said they would only vote for a candidate who shares their views on abortion, and nearly half agree that individuals should, “always be able to obtain an abortion as a matter of personal choice”
On the Israel-Hamas war, just 4% of young Americans overall said it’s the most important voting issue for them. A knowledge gap on the topic also exists. Respondents were most likely to choose “don’t know” in response to questions regarding support and sympathy for Israel and the Palestinian people, as well as who to blame for the conflict when given the options of Hamas, the Israeli government, the U.S. government, the Iranian government and all of the above.
Among AAPI young people, the issue holds more weight, 10% say it’s the most important issue when voting in the election and six in 10 want a permanent ceasefire.
And young people overall support an end to the war, with 53% backing a permanent ceasefire.
That all said, Biden holds low approval ratings over his handling of the conflict, with just 12% support, compared to 49% disapproval and 39% choosing neither option.
It all underscores the complex choice many undecided young Americans have this fall, Cohen argued, especially for voters of color, who may typically align themselves with Democratic values.
The likely choice: get back on board with Biden or effectively stay home.
“In a swing state, if the Biden campaign is dependent on those young people and they don’t vote, in some ways it is a vote for Trump,” Cohen said.
“I think we don’t take seriously enough,” she continued, “what does it mean if enough young Black people or enough young folks of color decide just not to vote?”
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‘Music makes everything better’: A Texas doctor spins vinyl to give patients relief
Dr. Tyler Jorgensen sets “A Charlie Brown Christmas” on a record player at Dell Seton Medical Center in Austin Texas. He uses vinyl records as a form of music therapy for palliative care patients.
Lorianne Willett/KUT News
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Lorianne Willett/KUT News
AUSTIN, TEXAS — Lying in her bed at Dell Seton Medical Center at the University of Texas at Austin, 64-year-old Pamela Mansfield sways her feet to the rhythm of George Jones’ “She Thinks I Still Care.” Mansfield is still recovering much of her mobility after a recent neck surgery, but she finds a way to move to the music floating from a record player that was wheeled into her room.
“Seems to be the worst part is the stiffness in my ankles and the no feeling in the hands,” she says. “But music makes everything better.”
The record player is courtesy of the ATX-VINyL program, a project dreamed up by Dr. Tyler Jorgensen to bring music to the bedside of patients dealing with difficult diagnoses and treatments. He collaborates with a team of volunteers who wheel the player on a cart to patients’ rooms, along with a selection of records in their favorite genres.
“I think of this record player as a time machine,” he said. “You know, something starts spinning — an old, familiar song on a record player — and now you’re back at home, you’re out of the hospital, you’re with your family, you’re with your loved ones.”
Daniela Vargas, a volunteer for the ATX-VINyL program, wheels a record player to the hospital room of a palliative care patient in Austin, Texas.
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The healing power of Country music… and Thin Lizzy
Mansfield wanted to hear country music: Willie Nelson, Merle Haggard, George Jones. That genre reminds her of listening to records with her parents, who helped form her taste in music. Almost as soon as the first record spins, she starts cracking jokes.
“I have great taste in music. Men, on the other hand … ehhh. I think my picker’s broken,” she says.
Other patients ask for jazz, R&B or holiday records.
The man who gave Jorgensen the idea for ATX-VINyL loved classic rock. That was around three years ago, when Jorgensen, a long-time emergency medicine physician, began a fellowship in palliative care — a specialty aimed at improving quality of life for people with serious conditions, including terminal illnesses.
Shortly after he began the fellowship, he says he struggled to connect with a particular patient.
“I couldn’t draw this man out, and I felt like he was really struggling and suffering,” Jorgensen said.
He had the idea to try playing the patient some music.
He went with “The Boys Are Back in Town,” by the 1970s Irish rock group Thin Lizzy, and saw an immediate change in the patient.
“He was telling me old stories about his life. He was getting more honest and vulnerable about the health challenges he was facing,” Jorgensen said. “And it just struck me that all this time I’ve been practicing medicine, there’s such a powerful tool that is almost universal to the human experience, which is music, and I’ve never tapped into it.”
Dr. Tyler Jorgensen plays vinyl records as a form of music therapy for palliative care patients in Austin, Texas. Willie Nelson’s albums are a perennial hit.
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Lorianne Willett/KUT News
Creating new memories
Jorgensen realized records could lift the spirits of patients dealing with heavy circumstances in hospital spaces that are often aesthetically bare. And he thought vinyl would offer a more personal touch than streaming a digital track through a smartphone or speaker.
“There’s just something inherently warm about the friction of a record — the pops, the scratches,” he said. “It sort of resonates through the wooden record player, and it just feels different.”
Since then, he has built up a collection of 60 records and counting at the hospital. The most-requested album, by a landslide, is Fleetwood Mac’s Rumours from 1977. Willie is also popular, along with Etta James and John Denver. And around the holidays, the Vince Guaraldi Trio’s A Charlie Brown Christmas gets a lot of spins.
These days, it’s often a volunteer who rolls the record player from room to room after consulting nursing staff about patients and family members who are struggling and could use a visit.
Daniela Vargas, the UT Austin pre-med undergraduate who heads up the volunteer cohort, became passionate about music therapy years ago when she and her sister began playing violin for isolated patients during the COVID-19 pandemic. She said she sees similar benefits when she curates a collection of records for a patient today.
“We are usually not in the room for the entire time, so it’s a more intimate experience for the patient or family, but being able to interact with the patient in the beginning and at the end can be really transformative,” Vargas said.
Often, the palliative care patients visited by ATX-VINyL are near the end of life.
Jorgensen feels that the record player provides an interruption of the heaviness those patients and their families are experiencing. Suddenly, it’s possible to create a new, positive shared experience at a profoundly difficult time.
“Now you’re sort of looking at it together and thinking, ‘What are we going to do with this thing? Let’s play something for Mom, let’s play something for Dad.’” he said. “And you are creating a new, positive, shared experience in the setting of something that can otherwise be very sad, very heavy.”
Other patients, like Pamela Mansfield, are working painstakingly toward recovery.
She has had six neck surgeries since April, when she had a serious fall. But on the day she listened to the George Jones album, she had a small victory to celebrate: She stood up for three minutes, a record since her most recent surgery.
With the record spinning, she couldn’t help but think about the victories she’s still pursuing.
“It’s motivating,” she said. “Me and my broom could dance really well to some of this stuff.”
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Weather tracker: Further flood watches issued across California
After prolonged heavy rainfall and devastating flooding across the Pacific north-west in the past few weeks, further flood watches have been issued across California through this week.
With 50-75mm (2-3in) of rainfall already reported across northern California this weekend, a series of atmospheric rivers will continue to bring periods of heavy rain and mountain snow across the northern and central parts of the state, with flood watches extending until Friday.
Cumulative rainfall totals are expected to widely exceed 50mm (2in) across a vast swathe of California by Boxing Day, but with totals around 200-300mm (8-12in) possible for the north-western corner of California and western-facing slopes of the northern Sierra Nevada mountains.
Los Angeles could receive 100-150mm (4-6in) of rainfall between Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, which could make it one of the wettest Christmases on record for the city. River and urban flooding are likely – particularly where there is run-off from high ground – with additional risks of mudslides and rockslides in mountain and foothill areas.
Winter storm warnings are also in effect for Yosemite national park, with the potential for 1.8-2.4 metres (6-8ft) of accumulating snow by Boxing Day. Heavy snow alongside strong winds will make travel very difficult over the festive period.
Heavy rain, lightning and strong winds are forecast across large parts of Zimbabwe leading up to Christmas. A level 2 weather warning has been issued by the Meteorological Services Department from Sunday 21 December to Wednesday 24 December. Some areas are expected to see more than 50mm of rainfall within a 24-hour period. The rain will be accompanied by hail, frequent lightning, and strong winds. These conditions have been attributed to the interaction between warm, moist air with low-pressure systems over the western and northern parts of the country.
Australia will see some large variations in temperatures over the festive period. Sydney, which is experiencing temperatures above 40C, is expected to tumble down to about 22C by Christmas Day, about 5C below average for this time of year. Perth is going to see temperatures gradually creep up, reaching a peak of 40C around Christmas Day. This is about 10C above average for this time of year.
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